CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceYanitelli Center, Jersey City, NJ

Stony Brook

Efficiency #232

2025-26: 17-15 · 9-10 conf

Saint Peter's

Efficiency #225

2025-26: 17-12 · 14-7 conf

Sat, Nov 21 · 2:00 PM ET

68.0

win 36%

Projected

72.1

win 64%

No line posted yet.

Model: SPU −4.1 · total 140.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Saint Peter's 67.1, Stony Brook 67.5 → 66.2 possessions

−4.5

Saint Peter's offense vs Stony Brook defense

−1.6

Stony Brook offense vs Saint Peter's defense

−1.9

Projected total

140.2

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Saint Peter's offense vs Stony Brook defense

−1.6

Stony Brook offense vs Saint Peter's defense

+1.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Saint Peter's by 4.1

4.1

Stony Brook side ◂▸ Saint Peter's side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Saint Peter's.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Stony Brook is the faster team (66.4, #277 of 365) and Saint Peter's the slower (65.5, #316). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

140.2

model

Projected team totals

68.0 / 72.1

Stony Brook / Saint Peter's

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.5#251

Stony Brook

67.1#283

Saint Peter's

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSaint Peter's

Where Saint Peter's struggles: shooting

Saint Peter's shoots an effective 46.4% (#347); Stony Brook allows 50.7% (#138). Expect about 48.1%, 3.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.5 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Half-court grind

Saint Peter's averages 65.5 possessions per 40, Stony Brook 66.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

GlassSaint Peter's

Saint Peter's owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.9% is worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions for Saint Peter's's offense.

AdvantageStony Brook

Where Stony Brook struggles: shooting

Stony Brook shoots an effective 50.2% (#227); Saint Peter's allows 48.1% (#39). Expect about 49.0%, 2.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseSaint Peter's

Saint Peter's's ball-hawking

Saint Peter's ranks #7 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.2% of Stony Brook's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

TurnoversStony Brook

Stony Brook turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.9% is worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions against Stony Brook's offense.

Stony Brook has the ball

OffenseSaint Peter's allowsvs D1 avg

50.2% #227

48.1% #39

-3.2 pt/100

16.8% #187

20.0% #22

-2.6 pt/100

28.0% #267

34.7% #330

+0.3 pt/100

28.4% #339

46.4% #354

+0.4 pt/100

72.3% #197

—

-0.0 pt/100

Stony Brook net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.1 pts/100

Saint Peter's has the ball

OffenseStony Brook allowsvs D1 avg

46.4% #347

50.7% #138

-4.5 pt/100

17.7% #249

17.1% #138

-0.9 pt/100

37.0% #16

32.4% #274

+3.4 pt/100

35.5% #163

35.4% #191

+0.1 pt/100

73.6% #148

—

+0.1 pt/100

Saint Peter's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Stony Brookoffense vsSaint Peter'sdefense

Share of shots by zone

Stony Brook shoots

33.6

5.8

14.4

46.2

Saint Peter's allows

43.9

4.1

16.2

35.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.5%#328	51.7%#13	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.4%#281	41.1%#210	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.0%#79	39.6%#227	38.0%
Three	34.8%#128	32.1%#68	33.7%

Saint Peter'soffense vsStony Brookdefense

Share of shots by zone

Saint Peter's shoots

38.7

5.6

16.9

38.8

Stony Brook allows

36.9

5.5

18.3

39.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	51.6%#351	56.1%#89	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.8%#198	37.5%#124	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.2%#216	36.0%#108	38.0%
Three	31.0%#321	35.7%#291	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Stony Brook

−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#295 of 365

Off reb %

28.0%

#267

Def reb %

67.6%

#274

Turnover %

16.8%

#187

Forced TO %

17.1%

#138

FT rate

28.4%

#339

FT allowed

35.4%

#191

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.8

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers+0.3

Foul shots drawn−1.7

Foul shots allowed0.0

Saint Peter's

−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#189 of 365

Off reb %

37.0%

#16

Def reb %

65.3%

#330

Turnover %

17.7%

#249

Forced TO %

20.0%

#22

FT rate

35.5%

#163

FT allowed

46.4%

#354

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.1

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers+2.3

Foul shots drawn+0.1

Foul shots allowed−2.9

Saint Peter's has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#189 of 365) to Stony Brook’s −2.8 (#295).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Stony Brook2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stony Brook's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Erik Pratt	G	Sr	6'5"	30-30	34.4	19.4	4.9	3.7	2.8	48.3%	31.6%	5.7	74.5%	37.5%
2	Rob Brown III	G	Sr	6'4"	32-30	31.1	10.8	3.1	1.3	1.0	49.3%	35.9%	6.0	86.4%	21.5%
29	Andrej Shoshkikj	G	Fr	6'2"	32-21	26.0	10.7	2.6	2.4	1.8	59.3%	45.1%	3.2	96.4%	23.5%
12	Richard Goods	F	So	6'9"	32-27	25.0	7.7	5.9	2.1	1.4	49.3%	35.2%	2.8	51.3%	21.8%
21	Tomas Valentiny	F	Fr	6'6"	32-4	19.1	4.8	3.5	0.9	0.5	47.5%	32.1%	2.4	63.6%	16.9%
15	Quin Gorman	F	So	6'8"	31-30	18.6	3.9	3.6	0.9	0.6	50.0%	30.4%	1.5	65.6%	13.8%
7	Ethan Simmon	G	Sr	6'5"	27-5	16.2	6.0	1.4	0.4	0.3	59.2%	39.7%	2.9	69.0%	19.2%
5	Jonah Butler	G	Fr	6'6"	30-0	12.5	4.3	1.9	0.6	0.5	52.4%	32.3%	2.1	78.6%	20.7%
17	Oleg Kojenets	F	Sr	7'0"	32-2	10.3	2.9	3.0	0.4	0.7	39.3%	—	0.0	58.7%	23.1%
4	Toby Onyekonwu	G	Sr	6'2"	20-2	10.8	2.5	0.8	0.8	0.8	41.0%	25.9%	1.4	72.7%	19.2%
13	Collin O'Connor	G	So	6'3"	8-8	26.3	7.5	2.5	1.8	1.5	60.0%	28.6%	1.8	80.0%	16.5%
33	Leon Nahar	F	Jr	6'10"	6-1	4.3	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	37.5%	33.3%	1.0	100.0%	22.1%
11	Jake Harbatkin	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	4.0	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	13.6%
6	Liam Dagostino	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	4.0	1.0	2.3	0.0	0.3	33.3%	0.0%	0.7	50.0%	22.4%
10	Andrew Okafor	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	3.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Saint Peter's2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Bryce Eaton	G	Jr	6'0"	29-21	27.2	11.1	3.0	4.0	2.3	43.9%	31.0%	4.9	82.4%	30.9%
15	Bryson Wilsonat Binghamton	G	Sr	6'5"	28-22	28.1	9.9	4.4	0.9	2.0	44.8%	24.1%	1.9	77.5%	24.9%
7	Elijah Perkins	G	Sr	6'4"	22-19	25.4	3.9	2.9	1.8	0.8	36.3%	0.0%	0.5	55.6%	13.9%
2	Shaedon Simpson	G	Jr	6'6"	18-4	11.2	3.3	1.6	0.3	0.5	45.7%	33.3%	1.8	84.2%	19.4%
3	Trey Pattersonat Rice	F	Sr	6'9"	13-0	8.1	1.4	1.6	0.0	0.4	30.4%	22.2%	0.7	66.7%	17.7%
0	Phoenix Glassnorat Toledo	G	So	6'0"	6-0	6.3	3.0	0.8	0.3	0.3	53.3%	33.3%	1.0	100.0%	25.6%
17	Bourgeois Tshiloboat Weber St	F	So	6'8"	7-0	4.9	2.6	2.0	0.1	0.4	69.2%	—	0.0	0.0%	24.0%
14	Jonathan Noudjihidiat UC Davis	C	Jr	6'11"	3-0	6.0	0.3	1.7	0.3	1.0	0.0%	—	0.0	33.3%	16.6%
24	Robert Wilmote	G	Jr	6'4"	1-0	3.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	17.3%
23	Akil Watson	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Ken Walker	G	Sr	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Mason Santiago	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	Xavier Thomas	F	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Phoenix Glassnor (from Toledo), Jonathan Noudjihidi (from UC Davis), Trey Patterson (from Rice), Bourgeois Tshilobo (from Weber St), Bryson Wilson (from Binghamton)

Stony Brook2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stony Brook's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Erik Pratt	G	Sr	6'5"	30-30	34.4	19.4	4.9	3.7	2.8	48.3%	31.6%	5.7	74.5%	37.5%
2	Rob Brown III	G	Sr	6'4"	32-30	31.1	10.8	3.1	1.3	1.0	49.3%	35.9%	6.0	86.4%	21.5%
29	Andrej Shoshkikj	G	Fr	6'2"	32-21	26.0	10.7	2.6	2.4	1.8	59.3%	45.1%	3.2	96.4%	23.5%
12	Richard Goods	F	So	6'9"	32-27	25.0	7.7	5.9	2.1	1.4	49.3%	35.2%	2.8	51.3%	21.8%
21	Tomas Valentiny	F	Fr	6'6"	32-4	19.1	4.8	3.5	0.9	0.5	47.5%	32.1%	2.4	63.6%	16.9%
15	Quin Gorman	F	So	6'8"	31-30	18.6	3.9	3.6	0.9	0.6	50.0%	30.4%	1.5	65.6%	13.8%
7	Ethan Simmon	G	Sr	6'5"	27-5	16.2	6.0	1.4	0.4	0.3	59.2%	39.7%	2.9	69.0%	19.2%
5	Jonah Butler	G	Fr	6'6"	30-0	12.5	4.3	1.9	0.6	0.5	52.4%	32.3%	2.1	78.6%	20.7%
17	Oleg Kojenets	F	Sr	7'0"	32-2	10.3	2.9	3.0	0.4	0.7	39.3%	—	0.0	58.7%	23.1%
4	Toby Onyekonwu	G	Sr	6'2"	20-2	10.8	2.5	0.8	0.8	0.8	41.0%	25.9%	1.4	72.7%	19.2%
13	Collin O'Connor	G	So	6'3"	8-8	26.3	7.5	2.5	1.8	1.5	60.0%	28.6%	1.8	80.0%	16.5%
33	Leon Nahar	F	Jr	6'10"	6-1	4.3	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	37.5%	33.3%	1.0	100.0%	22.1%
11	Jake Harbatkin	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	4.0	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	13.6%
6	Liam Dagostino	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	4.0	1.0	2.3	0.0	0.3	33.3%	0.0%	0.7	50.0%	22.4%
10	Andrew Okafor	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	3.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Stony Brook

Against the spread

Season

17-12-1

Home

9-4-1

Road

7-6

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 4 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

9-5

Road

5-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.6

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	CampbellAdjEM #208	N	L 89–96	+3.0	L−4.0	147.0	O185	123.2	132.8	72.3
Mar 3	TowsonAdjEM #149	H	L 57–69	+1.0	L−11.0	135.5	U126	93.1	112.7	61.2
Feb 28	HofstraAdjEM #69	A	L 58–67	+11.5	W+2.5	139.5	U125	83.8	96.8	69.2
Feb 26	MonmouthAdjEM #173	A	L 69–82	+4.5	L−8.5	146.5	O151	102.2	121.4	67.5
Feb 21	HamptonAdjEM #268	H	W 79–72	−5.0	W+2.0	135.5	O151	114.6	104.5	68.9
Feb 16	DrexelAdjEM #214	H	W 72–69	−3.0	P0.0	136.5	O141	110.1	105.5	65.4
Feb 12	TowsonAdjEM #149	A	L 57–69	+6.5	L−5.5	135.0	U126	89.9	108.8	63.4
Feb 7	NortheasternAdjEM #274	H	W 69–55	−4.0	W+10.0	153.5	U124	102.9	82.0	67.1
Feb 5	MonmouthAdjEM #173	H	L 75–76	−1.5	L−2.5	137.5	O151	104.5	105.9	71.8
Jan 31	ElonAdjEM #228	A	W 72–68	+5.5	W+9.5	147.5	U140	104.3	98.5	69.0

Saint Peter's

Against the spread

Season

16-11-1

Home

10-2-1

Road

6-8

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −2.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

10-18

Home

4-9

Road

6-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +1.6

Under 5 straightOver in 4 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	FairfieldAdjEM #230	N	L 55–74	−2.5	L−21.5	137.5	U129	85.3	114.7	64.5
Mar 1	MaristAdjEM #153	A	W 63–56	+4.0	W+11.0	132.0	U119	98.6	87.6	63.9
Feb 27	ManhattanAdjEM #328	H	W 75–65	−8.0	W+2.0	145.0	U140	119.5	103.6	62.8
Feb 22	SienaAdjEM #134	A	L 63–72	+6.0	L−3.0	136.0	U135	102.6	117.3	61.4
Feb 20	IonaAdjEM #227	A	L 64–72 OT	+1.0	L−7.0	140.5	U136	84.4	94.9	75.9
Feb 15	FairfieldAdjEM #230	H	W 83–74	−4.0	W+5.0	142.0	O157	120.7	107.6	68.8
Feb 13	Sacred HeartAdjEM #278	A	L 71–78	−1.5	L−8.5	148.0	O149	110.6	121.5	64.2
Feb 7	SienaAdjEM #134	H	W 70–65	+1.0	W+6.0	136.0	U135	102.9	95.5	68.0
Feb 5	ManhattanAdjEM #328	A	W 80–75	−4.5	W+0.5	145.5	O155	128.1	120.1	62.5
Feb 1	RiderAdjEM #356	A	L 78–81	−7.5	L−10.5	136.0	O159	119.5	124.1	65.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Stony BrookSaint Peter's

Efficiency

106.0

105.4

109.1

108.1

67.5

67.1

—

Shooting

50.2%

46.4%

48.5%

46.2%

34.8%

31.0%

72.3%

73.6%

28.4%

35.5%

Ball control & glass

16.8%

17.7%

17.1%

20.0%

28.0%

37.0%

32.4%

34.7%

10.2%

9.3%

11.7%

10.0%

Style

45.8%

38.7%

36.0%

39.9%

9.4%

17.0%

52.4%

53.2%

33.6%

36.5%

Roster

2.65

3.54

6'5.6"

6'3.5"

—

26.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Stony Brook

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Stony Brook's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Saint Peter's

Returning minutes: 26.5%Returning production: 21.7%

Lost

Brent Bland 33.1 mpg, 13.9 ppg · transferred to Miami
Jahki Gupton 24.5 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Zaakir Williamson 21.7 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
TJ Robinson 18.1 mpg, 9.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Lucas Scroggins 16.2 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Adetokunbo Bakare 10.4 mpg, 3.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Bryson Wilson from Binghamton · 25.4 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
Trey Patterson from Rice · 3.4 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
Phoenix Glassnor from Toledo · 1.1 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
Bourgeois Tshilobo from Weber St · 1.1 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
Jonathan Noudjihidi from UC Davis · 0.5 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
Xavier Thomas no D1 minutes last season

Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.