CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLJVM Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC

W Carolina

Efficiency #217

2025-26: 15-16 · 11-9 conf

Wake Forest

Efficiency #76

2025-26: 18-17 · 8-12 conf

Sat, Nov 21 · TBD

72.6

win 20%

Projected

82.4

win 80%

No line posted yet.

Model: WAKE −9.8 · total 154.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Wake Forest 69.0, W Carolina 68.7 → 69.3 possessions

+2.2

Wake Forest offense vs W Carolina defense

+5.2

W Carolina offense vs Wake Forest defense

−0.6

Projected total

154.9

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Wake Forest offense vs W Carolina defense

+5.2

W Carolina offense vs Wake Forest defense

+0.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Wake Forest by 9.8

9.8

W Carolina side ◂▸ Wake Forest side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 155.0 against a projected 154.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Wake Forest.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Wake Forest is the faster team (69.4, #120 of 365) and W Carolina the slower (68.7, #164). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.9

model

Projected team totals

72.6 / 82.4

W Carolina / Wake Forest

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.7#147

W Carolina

69.0#125

Wake Forest

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageWake Forest

Where Wake Forest scores: shooting

Wake Forest shoots an effective 52.7% (#117); W Carolina allows 54.9% (#327). Expect about 54.0%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.8 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageW Carolina

Where W Carolina scores: the offensive glass

W Carolina rebounds 35.4% of its own misses (#36); Wake Forest lets opponents grab 33.0% of their own misses (#298). Expect about 35.1%, 4.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversWake Forest

Wake Forest protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.6% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for Wake Forest's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (W Carolina's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect W Carolina at about 45.3% of its shots from three, Wake Forest about 45.5%.

ClashWake Forest

Style match: 3-point volume

Wake Forest takes 43.6% of its shots from three; W Carolina lets opponents take 43.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.5% — both habits push the same way.

ClashW Carolina

Style clash: ball movement

W Carolina creates off the dribble (assists on 44.3% of its baskets); Wake Forest allows assists on 56.9% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 50.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

W Carolina has the ball

OffenseWake Forest allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #218

51.8% #202

-0.3 pt/100

16.8% #184

17.7% #115

-0.7 pt/100

35.4% #36

33.0% #298

+2.9 pt/100

31.3% #274

35.7% #203

-0.2 pt/100

71.4% #229

—

-0.1 pt/100

W Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100

Wake Forest has the ball

OffenseW Carolina allowsvs D1 avg

52.7% #117

54.9% #327

+3.8 pt/100

15.5% #106

14.5% #319

+2.6 pt/100

30.1% #196

26.3% #22

-1.4 pt/100

35.2% #170

37.8% #255

+0.2 pt/100

77.6% #22

—

+0.5 pt/100

Wake Forest net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

W Carolinaoffense vsWake Forestdefense

Share of shots by zone

W Carolina shoots

37.7

5.2

15.7

41.5

Wake Forest allows

36.1

5.6

11.2

47.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.4%#330	60.3%#244	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.5%#112	35.8%#85	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.2%#106	38.5%#183	38.0%
Three	33.5%#198	32.9%#117	33.7%

Wake Forestoffense vsW Carolinadefense

Share of shots by zone

Wake Forest shoots

33.8

6.0

16.4

43.8

W Carolina allows

36.6

4.8

15.6

43.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.0%#70	61.6%#291	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.9%#126	50.0%#354	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.0%#145	41.9%#296	38.0%
Three	34.1%#166	36.7%#337	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

W Carolina

−0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#182 of 365

Off reb %

35.4%

#36

Def reb %

73.7%

#22

Turnover %

16.8%

#184

Forced TO %

14.5%

#319

FT rate

31.3%

#274

FT allowed

37.8%

#255

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding+1.4

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers−1.5

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed−0.7

Wake Forest

+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#156 of 365

Off reb %

30.1%

#196

Def reb %

67.0%

#298

Turnover %

15.5%

#106

Forced TO %

17.7%

#115

FT rate

35.2%

#170

FT allowed

35.7%

#203

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−0.8

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Wake Forest has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.6 (#156 of 365) to W Carolina’s −0.1 (#182).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

W Carolina2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Marcus Kell	F	Jr	6'8"	31-31	29.4	13.6	4.8	0.9	1.1	51.0%	29.7%	4.7	69.0%	27.1%
3	Julien Soumaoro	G	Sr	5'11"	27-23	26.1	11.6	3.1	2.2	1.7	54.4%	39.8%	6.0	76.9%	26.4%
22	Tidjiane Dioumassi	G	Sr	6'4"	29-24	24.2	8.9	2.7	2.7	1.7	49.3%	36.4%	2.3	72.5%	25.0%
8	Tahlan Pettway	G	Fr	6'2"	30-10	22.0	8.5	2.2	2.3	1.3	55.4%	39.4%	4.2	76.2%	22.9%
12	Samuel Dada	F	Fr	6'9"	31-12	20.3	6.6	7.6	0.7	0.7	69.0%	0.0%	0.0	78.9%	15.4%
7	Abdulai Fanta Kabba	C	So	7'0"	29-19	17.3	4.7	5.8	0.4	0.9	67.4%	—	0.0	32.4%	15.7%
4	Justin Johnson	G	So	6'8"	30-3	15.6	6.7	2.5	0.9	0.9	44.0%	22.7%	1.5	63.5%	29.2%
2	CJ Hyland	G	So	6'1"	20-4	14.6	6.2	1.1	1.1	1.2	49.5%	42.1%	1.9	81.6%	26.2%
21	Tayeshaun Smith	F	Fr	6'7"	30-0	9.7	1.5	1.7	0.2	0.4	43.6%	16.7%	0.4	78.6%	11.4%
20	Fischer Brown	G	So	6'4"	10-0	9.6	2.2	1.1	0.4	0.3	45.8%	13.3%	1.5	—	15.1%
1	Chase McKey	F	Sr	6'10"	4-0	9.3	2.0	1.8	0.3	0.3	60.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	10.0%
33	Vernon Collins	F	Sr	6'10"	5-0	6.0	1.2	2.8	0.2	0.2	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	13.0%
11	Drew Hollifield	G	Fr	5'11"	6-0	2.5	2.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	50.0%	28.6%	1.2	50.0%	55.4%
17	Max Williams	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	2.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%
5	Titian DeRosa	G	Fr	5'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Wake Forest2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Juke Harris	G	So	6'7"	35-35	35.2	21.4	6.5	1.9	1.7	52.7%	33.2%	7.5	78.3%	33.1%
6	Myles Colvin	G	Jr	6'5"	35-24	27.2	11.6	4.4	1.4	1.7	50.0%	36.0%	4.7	87.0%	25.5%
0	Omaha Biliew	F	Jr	6'8"	35-24	20.2	6.3	2.4	0.5	0.7	56.7%	36.8%	2.5	79.4%	16.7%
8	Mekhi Mason	G	Sr	6'5"	34-12	20.1	7.4	2.6	1.4	1.0	50.0%	33.8%	4.0	67.7%	22.9%
1	Nate Calmese	G	Sr	6'2"	26-23	24.7	10.3	1.9	4.5	1.8	55.5%	39.8%	4.0	77.4%	25.0%
10	Sebastian Akins	G	So	6'2"	35-8	15.1	5.3	1.5	1.9	1.2	43.3%	18.0%	1.4	77.8%	24.8%
7	Isaac Carr	G	Fr	6'4"	23-4	12.8	2.5	1.9	1.3	0.7	47.0%	31.3%	0.7	62.5%	15.0%
11	Marqus Marion	F	So	6'9"	20-0	12.1	1.4	2.3	0.7	0.3	42.0%	9.1%	0.6	61.5%	8.3%
23	Jaylen Cross	F	Fr	6'4"	12-0	5.5	2.0	1.1	0.4	0.5	50.0%	60.0%	0.4	71.4%	23.7%
9	Vincent Ricchiuti	F	Jr	6'6"	4-0	2.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	75.0%	50.0%	1.0	—	34.8%
4	Will Underwood	G	Jr	6'3"	4-0	1.8	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
30	Anson Beard Jr.	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	2.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	—	—	0.0	—	9.2%
44	Owen Kmety	F	Jr	6'7"	2-0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	28.9%
33	Dimitrije Kovacevic	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

W Carolina2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Marcus Kell	F	Jr	6'8"	31-31	29.4	13.6	4.8	0.9	1.1	51.0%	29.7%	4.7	69.0%	27.1%
3	Julien Soumaoro	G	Sr	5'11"	27-23	26.1	11.6	3.1	2.2	1.7	54.4%	39.8%	6.0	76.9%	26.4%
22	Tidjiane Dioumassi	G	Sr	6'4"	29-24	24.2	8.9	2.7	2.7	1.7	49.3%	36.4%	2.3	72.5%	25.0%
8	Tahlan Pettway	G	Fr	6'2"	30-10	22.0	8.5	2.2	2.3	1.3	55.4%	39.4%	4.2	76.2%	22.9%
12	Samuel Dada	F	Fr	6'9"	31-12	20.3	6.6	7.6	0.7	0.7	69.0%	0.0%	0.0	78.9%	15.4%
7	Abdulai Fanta Kabba	C	So	7'0"	29-19	17.3	4.7	5.8	0.4	0.9	67.4%	—	0.0	32.4%	15.7%
4	Justin Johnson	G	So	6'8"	30-3	15.6	6.7	2.5	0.9	0.9	44.0%	22.7%	1.5	63.5%	29.2%
2	CJ Hyland	G	So	6'1"	20-4	14.6	6.2	1.1	1.1	1.2	49.5%	42.1%	1.9	81.6%	26.2%
21	Tayeshaun Smith	F	Fr	6'7"	30-0	9.7	1.5	1.7	0.2	0.4	43.6%	16.7%	0.4	78.6%	11.4%
20	Fischer Brown	G	So	6'4"	10-0	9.6	2.2	1.1	0.4	0.3	45.8%	13.3%	1.5	—	15.1%
1	Chase McKey	F	Sr	6'10"	4-0	9.3	2.0	1.8	0.3	0.3	60.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	10.0%
33	Vernon Collins	F	Sr	6'10"	5-0	6.0	1.2	2.8	0.2	0.2	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	13.0%
11	Drew Hollifield	G	Fr	5'11"	6-0	2.5	2.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	50.0%	28.6%	1.2	50.0%	55.4%
17	Max Williams	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	2.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%
5	Titian DeRosa	G	Fr	5'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

W Carolina

Against the spread

Season

15-14

Home

7-4

Road

6-10

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +7.5

Covered 8 straightCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-13

Home

5-6

Road

11-5

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −2.5

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	ETSUAdjEM #110	N	L 67–69	+3.0	W+1.0	146.0	U136	102.4	105.5	65.4
Mar 7	MercerAdjEM #161	N	W 77–73	+2.0	W+6.0	154.0	U150	114.5	108.5	67.3
Feb 28	FurmanAdjEM #163	H	W 86–67	+2.0	W+21.0	148.0	O153	135.3	105.4	63.6
Feb 25	MercerAdjEM #161	H	W 78–74	+1.0	W+5.0	157.0	U152	113.6	107.8	68.6
Feb 21	VMIAdjEM #361	A	W 81–62	−9.0	W+10.0	155.0	U143	128.3	98.2	63.2
Feb 18	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	H	W 91–77	−6.0	W+8.0	155.0	O168	129.1	109.3	70.5
Feb 14	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	A	W 81–76	+2.0	W+7.0	151.5	O157	117.6	110.4	68.9
Feb 11	The CitadelAdjEM #348	H	W 87–49	−9.5	W+28.5	146.5	U136	139.3	78.5	62.4
Feb 7	WoffordAdjEM #235	A	L 66–77	+4.0	L−7.0	154.0	U143	96.0	112.0	68.7
Feb 4	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	A	L 78–81	−1.5	L−4.5	154.5	O159	116.6	121.1	66.9

Wake Forest

Against the spread

Season

16-18-1

Home

8-11-1

Road

4-5

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover −0.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-15

Home

14-6

Road

3-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +5.3

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	Illinois StAdjEM #80	H	L 75–78	−8.0	L−11.0	152.5	O153	108.0	112.3	69.5
Mar 18	NavyAdjEM #104	H	W 82–72	−10.0	P0.0	147.5	O154	124.1	109.0	66.1
Mar 11	ClemsonAdjEM #35	N	L 62–71	+5.5	L−3.5	142.0	U133	103.9	119.0	59.6
Mar 10	Virginia TechAdjEM #61	N	W 95–89 OT	−1.0	W+5.0	151.5	O184	126.6	118.6	75.0
Mar 7	CaliforniaAdjEM #79	H	W 80–73	−6.0	W+1.0	154.0	U153	109.6	100.1	73.0
Mar 3	#13VirginiaAdjEM #15	A	L 70–75	+14.0	W+9.0	149.5	U145	102.9	110.3	68.0
Feb 28	SyracuseAdjEM #85	H	W 88–83	−4.0	W+1.0	152.0	O171	135.2	127.5	65.1
Feb 25	Boston CollegeAdjEM #187	A	L 67–68	−4.0	L−5.0	144.5	U135	105.3	106.9	63.6
Feb 21	Virginia TechAdjEM #61	A	L 63–82	+4.0	L−15.0	148.5	U145	104.0	135.3	60.6
Feb 18	ClemsonAdjEM #35	H	W 85–77	+4.0	W+12.0	140.0	O162	127.6	115.6	66.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

W CarolinaWake Forest

Efficiency

109.3

113.1

111.3

106.7

68.7

69.0

—

Shooting

50.4%

52.7%

50.6%

53.9%

33.5%

34.1%

71.4%

77.6%

31.3%

35.2%

Ball control & glass

16.8%

15.5%

14.5%

17.7%

35.4%

30.1%

26.3%

33.0%

8.9%

7.7%

8.3%

Style

40.9%

43.6%

41.2%

39.9%

9.6%

11.1%

44.3%

53.5%

33.4%

32.7%

Roster

2.42

2.74

6'5.5"

6'5.3"

85.6%

75.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

W Carolina

Returning minutes: 85.6%Returning production: 86.9%

Lost

Cord Stansberry 29.1 mpg, 13.7 ppg · transferred to Missouri

Added

Titian DeRosa no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Wake Forest

Returning minutes: 75.9%Returning production: 74.4%

Lost

Tre'Von Spillers 29.1 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Cooper Schwieger 19.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Dimitrije Kovacevic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 76% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.