CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceWolstein Center, Cleveland, OH

Kent State

Efficiency #157

2025-26: 24-10 · 15-5 conf

Cleveland St

Efficiency #330

2025-26: 11-22 · 7-15 conf

Sat, Nov 21 · 1:00 PM ET

84.1

win 63%

Projected

80.3

win 37%

No line posted yet.

Model: KENT −3.8 · total 164.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Cleveland St 69.9, Kent State 70.4 → 72.0 possessions

+7.9

Cleveland St offense vs Kent State defense

+0.2

Kent State offense vs Cleveland St defense

+8.1

Projected total

164.5

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Cleveland St offense vs Kent State defense

+0.2

Kent State offense vs Cleveland St defense

−8.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Kent State by 3.8

3.8

Kent State side ◂▸ Cleveland St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 164.4 against a projected 164.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Cleveland St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kent State is the faster team (71.9, #25 of 365) and Cleveland St the slower (71.4, #39). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

72.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

164.5

model

Projected team totals

84.1 / 80.3

Kent State / Cleveland St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.4#30

Kent State

69.9#59

Cleveland St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

Cleveland St averages 71.4 possessions per 40, Kent State 71.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageKent State

Where Kent State scores: shooting

Kent State shoots an effective 51.4% (#175); Cleveland St allows 57.2% (#360). Expect about 54.4%, 3.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.4 points per 100 possessions.

GlassKent State

Kent State owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 36.8% is worth roughly +3.9 points per 100 possessions for Kent State's offense.

ClashCleveland St

Style match: 3-point volume

Cleveland St takes 50.8% of its shots from three; Kent State lets opponents take 43.1% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 50.8% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageCleveland St

Where Cleveland St scores: shooting

Cleveland St shoots an effective 54.2% (#62); Kent State allows 52.1% (#219). Expect about 53.4%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashKent State

Style match: 3-point volume

Kent State takes 44.9% of its shots from three; Cleveland St lets opponents take 44.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 46.7% — both habits push the same way.

Kent State has the ball

OffenseCleveland St allowsvs D1 avg

51.4% #175

57.2% #360

+4.4 pt/100

18.0% #269

15.1% #278

+0.5 pt/100

35.3% #39

36.6% #356

+3.9 pt/100

43.5% #15

35.5% #196

+0.5 pt/100

74.4% #105

—

+0.2 pt/100

Kent State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.5 pts/100

Cleveland St has the ball

OffenseKent State allowsvs D1 avg

54.2% #62

52.1% #219

+3.0 pt/100

17.8% #262

16.1% #220

-0.2 pt/100

27.0% #294

29.3% #124

-1.8 pt/100

37.9% #105

39.5% #294

+0.5 pt/100

76.2% #48

—

+0.3 pt/100

Cleveland St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Kent Stateoffense vsCleveland Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Kent State shoots

36.6

6.0

12.4

45.0

Cleveland St allows

38.0

6.0

12.0

44.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.6%#210	67.1%#361	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.7%#250	43.0%#252	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.4%#206	42.0%#305	38.0%
Three	35.0%#118	36.2%#309	33.7%

Cleveland Stoffense vsKent Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Cleveland St shoots

33.2

4.9

11.2

50.7

Kent State allows

37.0

6.3

13.8

42.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.0%#160	58.7%#172	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.6%#275	40.0%#191	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.1%#310	38.2%#167	38.0%
Three	37.5%#21	35.0%#246	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Kent State

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#109 of 365

Off reb %

35.3%

#39

Def reb %

70.7%

#124

Turnover %

18.0%

#269

Forced TO %

16.1%

#220

FT rate

43.5%

#15

FT allowed

39.5%

#294

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security−0.8

Forcing turnovers−0.4

Foul shots drawn+2.2

Foul shots allowed−1.1

Cleveland St

−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#331 of 365

Off reb %

27.0%

#294

Def reb %

63.4%

#356

Turnover %

17.8%

#262

Forced TO %

15.1%

#278

FT rate

37.9%

#105

FT allowed

35.5%

#196

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding−1.9

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn+0.7

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Kent State has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#109 of 365) to Cleveland St’s −4.2 (#331).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Kent State2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Kent State's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Cian Medley	G	Jr	5'11"	33-32	33.4	10.5	2.3	6.4	3.1	43.9%	32.1%	5.1	74.4%	22.7%
23	Delrecco Gillespie	F	Sr	6'8"	34-34	32.2	17.7	11.3	1.7	2.8	52.9%	27.0%	1.9	78.9%	30.6%
8	Morgan Safford	G	Sr	6'4"	32-32	31.2	14.3	5.6	1.5	1.5	51.3%	34.9%	6.1	80.1%	25.1%
25	Jahari Williamson	G	Jr	6'1"	34-34	25.1	10.3	1.9	0.8	0.4	61.8%	44.5%	5.4	82.6%	18.3%
2	Rob Whaley Jr.	F	Sr	6'7"	32-27	23.7	11.7	4.2	1.6	2.1	52.9%	28.6%	0.9	62.3%	29.5%
6	Quinn Woidke	G	Fr	6'0"	34-0	19.4	9.0	2.6	1.5	0.9	58.9%	40.4%	4.9	80.0%	23.2%
0	Rayvon Griffith	F	So	6'8"	33-2	13.8	4.0	3.0	0.8	0.8	50.0%	29.0%	1.9	53.6%	18.7%
14	Magnus Entenmann	F	Sr	6'9"	32-5	12.0	2.9	2.5	0.5	0.5	50.0%	28.0%	0.8	83.8%	13.2%
11	Dezmon Briscoe	F	Fr	6'8"	30-2	8.6	2.4	2.1	0.3	0.5	54.9%	0.0%	0.0	56.7%	17.4%
54	Omer Hamama	G	Fr	6'2"	23-2	7.5	1.8	0.9	1.3	0.7	40.0%	15.4%	0.6	83.3%	18.9%
5	Brenden Moss	G	Jr	6'4"	14-0	5.4	1.6	0.9	0.2	0.4	40.0%	23.5%	1.2	100.0%	23.6%
7	Landon Vanderwarker	F	Fr	6'8"	10-0	5.5	2.5	1.0	0.3	0.2	55.0%	36.4%	1.1	37.5%	23.4%
21	Deandre Jones	F	Fr	6'11"	7-0	4.7	4.3	2.3	0.1	0.3	100.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	26.6%
51	Drew Huffman	F	Fr	6'6"	3-0	3.0	1.3	0.7	1.0	0.0	40.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	26.4%
22	Jaymen Townsend	F	Fr	6'5"	1-0	9.0	0.0	1.0	4.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	15.5%
32	Dylan Lakatos	G	Fr	5'11"	2-0	3.5	3.0	0.5	0.0	0.5	75.0%	50.0%	2.0	—	33.8%
4	Jamal Sumlin	G	Jr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Cleveland St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Tre Beard	G	Sr	5'10"	30-30	30.9	12.6	3.2	3.3	1.2	58.6%	41.9%	6.8	85.7%	20.5%
2	Jaidon Lipscomb	G	Sr	6'5"	33-32	27.4	12.9	3.1	3.0	2.0	61.2%	41.7%	7.0	85.5%	24.5%
1	Chevalier Emery	G	Jr	6'0"	33-1	21.8	12.7	1.2	2.0	2.0	54.9%	38.2%	4.0	78.0%	32.3%
7	Dayan Nessah	F	So	6'7"	26-26	27.4	15.5	6.4	2.5	2.7	57.0%	33.3%	0.9	75.0%	30.9%
0	Foster Wonders	G	Sr	6'5"	31-9	22.1	5.4	2.0	0.8	0.4	53.0%	34.4%	3.9	72.7%	13.7%
22	Josiah Harris	F	Jr	6'7"	22-14	26.6	9.0	6.6	1.9	1.4	49.4%	33.0%	4.1	81.3%	20.4%
24	Kamari Jones	G	So	6'4"	23-4	10.9	4.3	1.0	0.4	0.4	47.1%	31.7%	2.6	78.3%	23.6%
5	David Giddens	G	Jr	6'7"	22-3	10.1	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.5	51.4%	29.6%	2.5	70.0%	22.3%
23	Manny Hill	G	Sr	6'0"	19-0	6.9	2.4	1.1	0.7	0.6	47.4%	33.3%	0.3	69.2%	23.6%
15	Ivan Spirov	F	Jr	6'8"	17-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	54.4%	33.3%	0.5	—	18.7%
13	Lucas Burton	F	Sr	6'8"	13-1	7.3	2.9	1.2	0.5	0.2	61.5%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	19.3%
50	Kevo St. Hilaire	F	Fr	6'10"	15-0	5.2	1.2	1.3	0.1	0.2	58.3%	—	0.0	40.0%	14.4%
11	Waqo Tessema	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Kent State2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Kent State's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Cian Medley	G	Jr	5'11"	33-32	33.4	10.5	2.3	6.4	3.1	43.9%	32.1%	5.1	74.4%	22.7%
23	Delrecco Gillespie	F	Sr	6'8"	34-34	32.2	17.7	11.3	1.7	2.8	52.9%	27.0%	1.9	78.9%	30.6%
8	Morgan Safford	G	Sr	6'4"	32-32	31.2	14.3	5.6	1.5	1.5	51.3%	34.9%	6.1	80.1%	25.1%
25	Jahari Williamson	G	Jr	6'1"	34-34	25.1	10.3	1.9	0.8	0.4	61.8%	44.5%	5.4	82.6%	18.3%
2	Rob Whaley Jr.	F	Sr	6'7"	32-27	23.7	11.7	4.2	1.6	2.1	52.9%	28.6%	0.9	62.3%	29.5%
6	Quinn Woidke	G	Fr	6'0"	34-0	19.4	9.0	2.6	1.5	0.9	58.9%	40.4%	4.9	80.0%	23.2%
0	Rayvon Griffith	F	So	6'8"	33-2	13.8	4.0	3.0	0.8	0.8	50.0%	29.0%	1.9	53.6%	18.7%
14	Magnus Entenmann	F	Sr	6'9"	32-5	12.0	2.9	2.5	0.5	0.5	50.0%	28.0%	0.8	83.8%	13.2%
11	Dezmon Briscoe	F	Fr	6'8"	30-2	8.6	2.4	2.1	0.3	0.5	54.9%	0.0%	0.0	56.7%	17.4%
54	Omer Hamama	G	Fr	6'2"	23-2	7.5	1.8	0.9	1.3	0.7	40.0%	15.4%	0.6	83.3%	18.9%
5	Brenden Moss	G	Jr	6'4"	14-0	5.4	1.6	0.9	0.2	0.4	40.0%	23.5%	1.2	100.0%	23.6%
7	Landon Vanderwarker	F	Fr	6'8"	10-0	5.5	2.5	1.0	0.3	0.2	55.0%	36.4%	1.1	37.5%	23.4%
21	Deandre Jones	F	Fr	6'11"	7-0	4.7	4.3	2.3	0.1	0.3	100.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	26.6%
51	Drew Huffman	F	Fr	6'6"	3-0	3.0	1.3	0.7	1.0	0.0	40.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	26.4%
22	Jaymen Townsend	F	Fr	6'5"	1-0	9.0	0.0	1.0	4.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	15.5%
32	Dylan Lakatos	G	Fr	5'11"	2-0	3.5	3.0	0.5	0.0	0.5	75.0%	50.0%	2.0	—	33.8%
4	Jamal Sumlin	G	Jr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Kent State

Against the spread

Season

12-19-1

Home

6-9

Road

5-8

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −2.5

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

18-13-1

Home

11-4

Road

5-7-1

Last 10

5-4-1

avg vs total +4.1

Under 2 straightOver in 5 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 0 of 4 as an underdogOver in 4 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 18	Illinois StAdjEM #80	A	L 58–79	+4.5	L−16.5	154.5	U137	83.9	114.3	69.1
Mar 13	AkronAdjEM #48	N	L 68–75	+6.5	L−0.5	163.0	U143	99.5	109.7	68.3
Mar 12	OhioAdjEM #233	N	W 86–75	−3.5	W+7.5	160.5	O161	121.1	105.7	71.0
Mar 6	W MichiganAdjEM #276	H	W 86–78	−13.5	L−5.5	157.5	O164	122.5	111.1	70.2
Mar 3	N IllinoisAdjEM #341	A	W 102–76	−10.0	W+16.0	149.5	O178	134.5	100.2	75.9
Feb 27	AkronAdjEM #48	H	L 70–92	+3.5	L−18.5	165.0	U162	99.4	130.7	70.4
Feb 24	C MichiganAdjEM #283	H	W 83–81	−12.0	L−10.0	157.0	O164	124.1	121.1	66.9
Feb 17	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	A	W 78–71	+2.5	W+9.5	151.5	U149	107.5	97.9	72.5
Feb 14	Ball StateAdjEM #295	A	W 75–68	−8.0	L−1.0	143.0	P143	103.3	93.7	72.6
Feb 11	E MichiganAdjEM #247	H	W 95–91	−10.0	L−6.0	144.5	O186	135.3	129.6	70.2

Cleveland St

Against the spread

Season

12-18

Home

4-8

Road

6-10

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −3.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-11

Home

7-5

Road

10-6

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +5.5

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Wright StAdjEM #119	A	L 61–90	+14.5	L−14.5	161.5	U151	88.1	130.0	69.2
Mar 2	IU IndyAdjEM #315	H	W 101–93	−1.0	W+7.0	169.5	O194	121.7	112.1	83.0
Feb 28	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	A	L 64–83	+12.5	L−6.5	157.5	U147	100.1	129.8	63.9
Feb 25	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	H	L 70–81	+8.0	L−3.0	165.5	U151	97.0	112.2	72.2
Feb 22	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	L 86–92	+3.0	L−3.0	163.0	O178	112.8	120.7	76.2
Feb 18	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	A	L 82–106	+11.0	L−13.0	156.5	O188	116.8	151.0	70.2
Feb 15	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	L 90–102	+7.5	L−4.5	158.5	O192	121.2	137.4	74.2
Feb 12	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	H	L 68–85	+4.0	L−13.0	154.0	U153	108.3	135.3	62.8
Feb 7	IU IndyAdjEM #315	A	L 74–82	+2.5	L−5.5	168.5	U156	98.7	109.3	75.0
Feb 4	OaklandAdjEM #172	H	W 91–78	+8.0	W+21.0	169.5	U169	127.7	109.5	71.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Kent StateCleveland St

Efficiency

109.8

108.3

108.9

118.5

70.4

69.9

—

Shooting

51.4%

54.2%

50.6%

52.0%

35.0%

37.5%

74.4%

76.2%

43.5%

37.9%

Ball control & glass

18.0%

17.8%

16.1%

15.1%

35.3%

27.0%

29.3%

36.6%

9.8%

9.5%

9.6%

14.4%

Style

44.9%

50.8%

36.6%

33.3%

13.1%

17.7%

57.1%

57.9%

29.8%

36.1%

Roster

3.05

3.30

6'4.1"

6'3.7"

—

82.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Kent State

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Kent State's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Cleveland St

Returning minutes: 82.4%Returning production: 86.3%

Lost

Preist Ryan 20.9 mpg, 6.8 ppg · transferred to Canisius
Holden Pierre-Louis 14.2 mpg, 3.0 ppg · transferred to Quinnipiac

Added

Waqo Tessema no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 82% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Nov 22	2025-26	Cleveland St 71 – 91 Kent State
Sat, Nov 15	2025-26	Kent State 102 – 95 Cleveland St(N)

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.