CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteAcrisure Arena, Palm Springs, CAAcrisure Series
UC Irvine
Efficiency #105
2025-26: 23-12 · 16-6 conf
vs
San Diego
Efficiency #269
2025-26: 12-21 · 6-14 conf
Sat, Nov 21 · 4:30 PM ET
75.4
win 70%
Projected
69.2
win 30%
No line posted yet.
Model: UCI −6.2 · total 144.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: San Diego 68.8, UC Irvine 68.9 → 69.4 possessions
+2.4
San Diego offense vs UC Irvine defense
−6.1
UC Irvine offense vs San Diego defense
+0.1
Projected total
144.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
San Diego offense vs UC Irvine defense
−6.1
UC Irvine offense vs San Diego defense
−0.1
UC Irvine by 6.2
6.2
UC Irvine side ◂▸ San Diego side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help San Diego.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UC Irvine is the faster team (70.7, #63 of 365) and San Diego the slower (68.8, #159). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
144.6
model
Projected team totals
75.4 / 69.2
UC Irvine / San Diego
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.9#129
UC Irvine
68.8#136
San Diego

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSan Diego
Where San Diego struggles: shooting
San Diego shoots an effective 51.2% (#185); UC Irvine allows 45.9% (#9). Expect about 48.5%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseUC Irvine
UC Irvine's shot-blocking
UC Irvine ranks #11 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.4% of San Diego's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageUC Irvine
Where UC Irvine struggles: ball control
UC Irvine turns it over on 17.8% of possessions (#258); San Diego forces turnovers on 18.9% of opponent possessions (#55). Expect about 18.7%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversSan Diego
San Diego turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against San Diego's offense.
UC Irvine has the ball
OffenseSan Diego allowsvs D1 avg
49.5% #268
54.7% #320
+1.0 pt/100
17.8% #258
18.9% #55
-2.4 pt/100
31.0% #166
34.5% #328
+1.5 pt/100
35.9% #152
38.8% #281
+0.3 pt/100
69.7% #276
—
-0.2 pt/100
UC Irvine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.2 pts/100
San Diego has the ball
OffenseUC Irvine allowsvs D1 avg
51.2% #185
45.9% #9
-3.9 pt/100
17.5% #237
18.8% #59
-2.1 pt/100
28.1% #262
31.2% #213
-0.7 pt/100
25.8% #358
26.7% #18
-1.2 pt/100
74.7% #95
—
+0.2 pt/100
San Diego net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
UC Irvineoffense vsSan Diegodefense
Share of shots by zone
UC Irvine shoots
San Diego allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.5%#31263.2%#32858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.2%#3850.0%#35439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.3%#21347.3%#36138.0%
Three33.6%#19132.7%#10033.7%
San Diegooffense vsUC Irvinedefense
Share of shots by zone
San Diego shoots
UC Irvine allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.6%#17446.5%#158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.9%#27038.0%#13539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.6%#16835.6%#9538.0%
Three34.6%#14133.7%#16733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
UC Irvine
+3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#52 of 365
Off reb %
31.0%
#166
Def reb %
68.8%
#213
Turnover %
17.8%
#258
Forced TO %
18.8%
#59
FT rate
35.9%
#152
FT allowed
26.7%
#18
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+2.2
San Diego
−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#334 of 365
Off reb %
28.1%
#262
Def reb %
65.5%
#328
Turnover %
17.5%
#237
Forced TO %
18.9%
#55
FT rate
25.8%
#358
FT allowed
38.8%
#281
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers+1.5
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.9

UC Irvine has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.1 (#52 of 365) to San Diego’s −4.3 (#334).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UC Irvine2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UC Irvine's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
24Jurian DixonGSo6'4"35-3530.415.93.62.51.550.5%38.5%5.279.5%29.9%
13Derin SaranGSo6'5"35-3529.711.55.33.42.243.6%26.5%2.868.5%27.4%
14Kyle EvansFSr6'10"35-3528.612.18.70.90.962.3%20.0%0.378.8%19.9%
6Tama IsaacGFr6'2"35-3526.86.33.23.82.143.9%31.9%2.168.4%17.8%
4Andre HenryGSr6'4"31-022.59.92.51.10.952.5%36.4%3.582.1%24.3%
2Harrison CarringtonFJr6'7"35-117.08.53.80.90.759.4%36.4%0.367.3%24.6%
9Jovan Jester Jr.GFr6'4"35-016.16.52.82.32.151.2%37.5%1.867.5%27.6%
3Elijah CholFJr7'0"26-1716.64.63.30.60.451.5%33.3%1.046.3%16.8%
43Akiva McBirney-GriffinFJr6'9"34-169.92.42.10.40.840.9%0.0%0.363.4%18.5%
23Nes EmenekeFFr6'10"35-08.11.32.40.20.343.6%—0.035.7%12.2%
5Ben EgboGSo6'4"17-16.01.00.90.50.457.1%0.0%0.125.0%11.1%
27Tishan AhirGSo6'0"9-02.31.20.00.00.141.7%28.6%0.850.0%33.0%
0Bryce GoldmanGFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Joshua PalmerGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
21Langston RedfieldGSr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Luke IsaakGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
55Mason HodgesFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Torian LeeGSo6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
UC IrvineSan Diego
Efficiency
105.1
106.6
101.6
112.0
68.9
68.8
—
—
Shooting
49.5%
51.2%
49.1%
50.8%
33.6%
34.6%
69.7%
74.7%
35.9%
25.8%
Ball control & glass
17.8%
17.5%
18.8%
18.9%
31.0%
28.1%
31.2%
34.5%
9.1%
10.0%
9.1%
10.1%
Style
28.0%
43.7%
48.9%
39.6%
15.0%
15.1%
55.1%
59.1%
34.8%
39.6%
Roster
2.42
3.00
6'5.9"
6'4.7"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
UC Irvine
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UC Irvine's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

San Diego
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted San Diego's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.