Winthrop Eagles vs Wofford Terriers basketball preview & prediction

Sat, Nov 21 · 5:00 PM ET · Jerry Richardson Indoor Stadium, Spartanburg, SC

Non-conferenceESPN+Jerry Richardson Indoor Stadium, Spartanburg, SC
Winthrop
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #182
@
Wofford
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #291
Sat, Nov 21 · 5:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 76.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Winthrop is the faster team (77.2, #37 of 365) and Wofford the slower (75.2, #61). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
76.1
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
73.9#35
Winthrop
72.8#61
Wofford

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup
From the four factors
Wofford has the ball+0.5
Winthrop has the ball+16.3
Wofford has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 37.0% #344 · WIN allows 55.8% #275−5.3
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.6% #136 · WIN forces 12.9% #316 · ~11 turnovers+4.0
✓Wins second chancesOR% 31.3% #185 · WIN allows 37.0% #280+1.1
✓Gets to the lineFTR 35.9% #191 · WIN allows 51.5% #310 · FT 68.1% #216+0.6
Winthrop has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 62.1% #19 · WOF allows 58.3% #309+11.9
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 18.8% #206 · WOF forces 12.0% #332 · ~11 turnovers+3.4
✓Wins second chancesOR% 37.5% #77 · WOF allows 35.2% #255+2.8
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 25.0% #309 · WOF allows 32.6% #134 · FT 55.9% #336−1.8

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot
Winthropoffense vsWofforddefense
Share of shots by zone
Winthrop shoots
Wofford allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim67.3%#8170.0%#30358.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)21.4%#27364.3%#32138.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)80.0%#930.0%#12834.7%
Three42.9%#3535.4%#24032.5%
Woffordoffense vsWinthropdefense
Share of shots by zone
Wofford shoots
Winthrop allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim32.4%#35570.1%#30758.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)25.0%#25044.4%#22238.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)20.0%#27928.6%#11634.7%
Three25.0%#29927.7%#8832.5%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line
Winthrop
−10.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#319 of 365
Off reb %
37.5%
#77
Def reb %
63.0%
#280
Turnover %
18.8%
#206
Forced TO %
12.9%
#316
FT rate
25.0%
#309
FT allowed
51.5%
#310
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.0
Defensive rebounding−1.8
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers−3.6
Foul shots drawn−3.2
Foul shots allowed−3.5
Wofford
−3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#230 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#185
Def reb %
64.8%
#255
Turnover %
16.6%
#136
Forced TO %
12.0%
#332
FT rate
35.9%
#191
FT allowed
32.6%
#134
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−1.2
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers−4.3
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+1.4

Wofford has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.5 (#230 of 365) to Winthrop’s −10.6 (#319).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not
Winthrop2026-27 numbers · last game: North Dakota, Nov 7
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGMin/40, last 8Last 3 vs beforeStatusPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%Usage
11GSo6'1"2-234.534—Started last22.02.02.52.581.5%52.2%11.50.0%24.4%
3GSo6'1"2-232.034—Started last9.55.04.53.050.0%20.0%2.557.1%19.8%
45GSo6'7"2-230.025—Started last23.55.52.02.082.0%53.8%6.575.0%28.2%
25GJr6'8"2-227.528—Started last7.59.04.01.038.2%16.7%3.033.3%20.6%
8GSr6'4"2-025.023—Bench14.02.01.51.065.0%42.9%7.066.7%24.3%
13FSr6'10"2-221.512—Started last11.06.02.01.055.6%—0.066.7%25.5%
6GJr6'9"2-09.512—Bench4.00.50.50.550.0%—0.0—24.8%
21FSr6'10"2-08.516—Bench1.51.50.01.0——0.050.0%15.2%
0GFr6'4"2-06.06—Bench1.00.00.51.020.0%0.0%1.0—30.3%
2FFr6'5"2-05.510—Bench0.01.00.01.00.0%—0.0—14.5%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home
WinthropWofford
Efficiency
109.3
104.6
110.8
113.0
73.9
72.8
-6.3
16.7
Shooting
62.1%
37.0%
60.3%
36.7%
42.9%
25.0%
55.9%
68.1%
25.0%
35.9%
Ball control & glass
18.8%
16.6%
12.9%
12.0%
37.5%
31.3%
37.0%
35.2%
11.7%
9.3%
8.2%
10.1%
Style
46.3%
39.7%
43.6%
43.4%
16.0%
7.8%
49.3%
47.6%
27.3%
48.0%
Roster
2.68
2.17
6'5.2"
6'4.5"
10.6%
21.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Winthrop
Returning minutes: 11.1%Returning production: 9.8%
Lost
  • Kody Clouet 29.0 mpg, 13.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kareem Rozier 28.8 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Logan Duncomb 22.9 mpg, 17.2 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame
  • Daylen Berry 20.2 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Isaiah Wilson 19.8 mpg, 3.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Josh Meo 18.3 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Micah Davis from IU Indy · 25.4 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
  • Spence Sims from Gardner-Webb · 23.8 mpg, 9.6 ppg last season
  • George Natsvlishvili from North Dakota · 18.7 mpg, 7.8 ppg last season
  • Anthony Smith III from North Dakota · 17.2 mpg, 7.6 ppg last season
  • Keshawn Fisher from Detroit Mercy · 7.1 mpg, 3.4 ppg last season
  • Kyle Morgan no D1 minutes last season

Returns 11% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Wofford
Returning minutes: 32.4%Returning production: 26.1%
Lost
  • Nils Machowski 33.7 mpg, 17.2 ppg · transferred to UConn
  • Cayden Vasko 31.9 mpg, 10.4 ppg · transferred to UCF
  • Kahmare Holmes 25.9 mpg, 15.8 ppg · transferred to DePaul
  • Rex Stirling 13.6 mpg, 4.8 ppg · transferred to Jacksonville
  • Brendan Rigsbee 12.3 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jayden Tyler 10.3 mpg, 4.3 ppg · transferred to Youngstown St
Added
  • Chris Arias from Jacksonville · 16.8 mpg, 6.9 ppg last season
  • Hank Neace no D1 minutes last season
  • Cam Lowe no D1 minutes last season
  • Jhett Carter no D1 minutes last season
  • Jyi Dawkins no D1 minutes last season
  • Jemon Price no D1 minutes last season

Returns 32% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Sat, Nov 21

← Fri, Nov 20 · Sun, Nov 22 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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