CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceAlumni Gymnasium (Rider), Lawrenceville, NJ
Navy
Efficiency #104
2025-26: 26-8 · 18-2 conf
@
Rider
Efficiency #356
2025-26: 4-25 · 3-17 conf
Sat, Nov 21 · 2:00 PM ET
73.8
win 77%
Projected
65.3
win 23%
No line posted yet.
Model: NAVY −8.5 · total 139.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Rider 67.2, Navy 66.8 → 65.7 possessions
−5.6
Rider offense vs Navy defense
−7.9
Navy offense vs Rider defense
+4.4
Projected total
139.1
Axis starts at 125 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Rider offense vs Navy defense
−7.9
Navy offense vs Rider defense
−4.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Navy by 8.5
8.5
Navy side ◂▸ Rider side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Rider.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Rider is the faster team (65.7, #309 of 365) and Navy the slower (65.2, #327). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.1
model
Projected team totals
73.8 / 65.3
Navy / Rider
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.8#301
Navy
67.2#273
Rider
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageRider
Where Rider struggles: shooting
Rider shoots an effective 42.8% (#365); Navy allows 48.3% (#42). Expect about 44.8%, 6.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -9.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageNavy
Where Navy scores: shooting
Navy shoots an effective 53.1% (#100); Rider allows 55.2% (#335). Expect about 54.3%, 3.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.3 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Rider averages 65.7 possessions per 40, Navy 65.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Rider, Rider's defense, Navy's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Navy at about 34.7% of its shots from three, Rider about 34.1%.
ClashRider
Style clash: 3-point volume
Rider rarely shoots threes (27.5% of its shots); Navy lets opponents take 46.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 34.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Navy has the ball
OffenseRider allowsvs D1 avg
53.1% #100
55.2% #335
+4.3 pt/100
16.8% #190
15.3% #268
+1.1 pt/100
31.9% #126
32.8% #294
+1.4 pt/100
38.8% #82
32.5% #116
+0.0 pt/100
73.6% #145
—
+0.1 pt/100
Navy net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.0 pts/100
Rider has the ball
OffenseNavy allowsvs D1 avg
42.8% #365
48.3% #42
-9.2 pt/100
16.9% #196
18.3% #83
-1.3 pt/100
32.6% #101
27.4% #49
+0.1 pt/100
30.1% #307
26.0% #13
-1.0 pt/100
70.1% #270
—
-0.2 pt/100
Rider net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -11.6 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersNavyoffense vsRiderdefense
Share of shots by zone
Navy shoots
42.2
6.0
19.4
32.4
Rider allows
44.5
4.5
10.5
40.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.8%#123 | 57.0%#111 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 48.4%#19 | 40.6%#203 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.5%#172 | 44.7%#346 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.8%#64 | 37.9%#356 | 33.7% |
Rideroffense vsNavydefense
Share of shots by zone
Rider shoots
37.7
6.5
28.6
27.2
Navy allows
29.4
7.8
17.3
45.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 49.2%#364 | 61.7%#295 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.5%#130 | 36.1%#91 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.9%#227 | 38.0%#159 | 38.0% |
| Three | 27.7%#365 | 30.0%#7 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNavy
+6.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#14 of 365
Off reb %
31.9%
#126
Def reb %
72.6%
#49
Turnover %
16.8%
#190
Forced TO %
18.3%
#83
FT rate
38.8%
#82
FT allowed
26.0%
#13
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn+1.0
Foul shots allowed+2.4
Rider
−1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#258 of 365
Off reb %
32.6%
#101
Def reb %
67.2%
#294
Turnover %
16.9%
#196
Forced TO %
15.3%
#268
FT rate
30.1%
#307
FT allowed
32.5%
#116
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.7
Navy has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.0 (#14 of 365) to Rider’s −1.6 (#258).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Navy2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Navy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Benigni | G | Sr | 5'11" | 34-34 | 36.1 | 18.0 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 49.2% | 44.1% | 4.0 | 88.0% | 31.6% | |
| 99 | Aidan Kehoe | C | Sr | 6'11" | 34-34 | 33.6 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 73.1% | — | 0.0 | 47.0% | 23.6% | |
| 10 | Jinwoo Kim | G | Jr | 6'3" | 34-33 | 30.5 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 40.6% | 4.1 | 83.6% | 20.1% | |
| 11 | Donovan Draper | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-16 | 26.9 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 46.6% | 11.6% | 1.3 | 79.3% | 22.8% | |
| 21 | Jordan Pennick | G | Jr | 6'0" | 34-20 | 24.6 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 46.3% | 31.2% | 4.1 | 74.6% | 21.1% | |
| 30 | Mike Woods | F | Sr | 6'4" | 34-31 | 22.4 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 49.5% | 28.9% | 1.3 | 78.4% | 19.3% | |
| 2 | Cam Cole | G | Jr | 6'2" | 34-0 | 19.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 55.7% | 38.5% | 2.8 | 75.9% | 19.8% | |
| 7 | David Burnett | G | So | 6'4" | 18-0 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 54.3% | 25.0% | 0.2 | 45.5% | 17.3% | |
| 8 | Sam Krist | G | Sr | 6'5" | 15-1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 64.3% | 40.0% | 0.7 | — | 20.9% | |
| 42 | Cooper Jackson | F | So | 6'7" | 17-0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 62.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.0% | 18.2% | |
| 0 | Nyles Howard | G | Jr | 6'4" | 11-0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 75.0% | 25.6% | |
| 14 | Cam Cormany | G | Sr | 6'0" | 14-1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 63.6% | 44.4% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 23.3% | |
| 25 | Jerry Ashley Jr. | F | Fr | 6'8" | 9-0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 20.1% | |
| 3 | Julian Gabbidon | G | Jr | 6'3" | 7-0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 33.2% | |
| 20 | Matt Gaffney | G | Fr | 5'11" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 23.2% | |
| 77 | Owen Gray | F | So | 6'9" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 7.4% | |
| 33 | Tobi Raji | F | So | 6'7" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 40 | C.J. Kearns | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Colin Pollock | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 18 | Davyn de Jongh | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 32 | Jordan McConnell | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 16 | Julien King | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 35 | Luke Morgan | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Reiss Whitaker | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Steven McLeod | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Rider2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mark Butlerat Lafayette | G | Sr | 5'10" | 32-32 | 33.9 | 10.7 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 43.7% | 25.0% | 0.6 | 76.0% | 20.9% | |
| 22 | Khalil Farmerat UMass Lowell | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-0 | 14.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 43.2% | 32.1% | 1.7 | 61.7% | 18.3% | |
| 55 | Bryce Bakerat Charleston | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 13.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 26.1% | 10.5% | 2.4 | 50.0% | 14.9% | |
| 23 | Horace Simmons Jr.at Drexel | F | Jr | 6'6" | 13-0 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 32.8% | 18.8% | 1.2 | 75.0% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Ty Bevinsat G Washington | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 42.1% | 26.7% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 17.0% | |
| 13 | Rich Briscoat Akron | F | So | 6'8" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 27.2% | |
| 14 | Kam Wylieat 2598 | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Bryce Presley | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | JJ Washington | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Mikes Connelly | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Nasir Washington | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Richie Rosa | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Segun Ezekiel Obe | F | So | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Stephen Avegah Semey | C | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Bryce Baker (from Charleston), Ty Bevins (from G Washington), Rich Brisco (from Akron), Mark Butler (from Lafayette), Khalil Farmer (from UMass Lowell), Horace Simmons Jr. (from Drexel), Kam Wylie (from 2598)
Navy2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Navy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Benigni | G | Sr | 5'11" | 34-34 | 36.1 | 18.0 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 49.2% | 44.1% | 4.0 | 88.0% | 31.6% | |
| 99 | Aidan Kehoe | C | Sr | 6'11" | 34-34 | 33.6 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 73.1% | — | 0.0 | 47.0% | 23.6% | |
| 10 | Jinwoo Kim | G | Jr | 6'3" | 34-33 | 30.5 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 40.6% | 4.1 | 83.6% | 20.1% | |
| 11 | Donovan Draper | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-16 | 26.9 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 46.6% | 11.6% | 1.3 | 79.3% | 22.8% | |
| 21 | Jordan Pennick | G | Jr | 6'0" | 34-20 | 24.6 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 46.3% | 31.2% | 4.1 | 74.6% | 21.1% | |
| 30 | Mike Woods | F | Sr | 6'4" | 34-31 | 22.4 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 49.5% | 28.9% | 1.3 | 78.4% | 19.3% | |
| 2 | Cam Cole | G | Jr | 6'2" | 34-0 | 19.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 55.7% | 38.5% | 2.8 | 75.9% | 19.8% | |
| 7 | David Burnett | G | So | 6'4" | 18-0 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 54.3% | 25.0% | 0.2 | 45.5% | 17.3% | |
| 8 | Sam Krist | G | Sr | 6'5" | 15-1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 64.3% | 40.0% | 0.7 | — | 20.9% | |
| 42 | Cooper Jackson | F | So | 6'7" | 17-0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 62.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.0% | 18.2% | |
| 0 | Nyles Howard | G | Jr | 6'4" | 11-0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 75.0% | 25.6% | |
| 14 | Cam Cormany | G | Sr | 6'0" | 14-1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 63.6% | 44.4% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 23.3% | |
| 25 | Jerry Ashley Jr. | F | Fr | 6'8" | 9-0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 20.1% | |
| 3 | Julian Gabbidon | G | Jr | 6'3" | 7-0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 33.2% | |
| 20 | Matt Gaffney | G | Fr | 5'11" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 23.2% | |
| 77 | Owen Gray | F | So | 6'9" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 7.4% | |
| 33 | Tobi Raji | F | So | 6'7" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 40 | C.J. Kearns | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Colin Pollock | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 18 | Davyn de Jongh | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 32 | Jordan McConnell | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 16 | Julien King | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 35 | Luke Morgan | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Reiss Whitaker | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Steven McLeod | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Navy
Against the spread
Season
20-11-1
Home
9-6
Road
10-4-1
Last 10
7-2-1
avg cover +5.2
Covered 7 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
14-17-1
Home
9-6
Road
5-9-1
Last 10
7-2-1
avg vs total +5.4
Over 4 straightOver in 6 of 9 as a favorite, 1 push
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | Wake Forest | A | L 72–82 | +10.0 | P0.0 | 147.5 | O154 | 109.0 | 124.1 | 66.1 |
| Mar 8 | Boston U | H | L 72–73 | −7.0 | L−8.0 | 136.5 | O145 | 117.4 | 119.1 | 61.3 |
| Mar 5 | Bucknell | H | W 74–69 | −14.5 | L−9.5 | 132.5 | O143 | 118.1 | 110.1 | 62.7 |
| Feb 28 | Colgate | H | W 85–69 | −6.5 | W+9.5 | 142.0 | O154 | 127.8 | 103.7 | 66.5 |
| Feb 25 | Loyola MD | A | W 78–51 | −6.5 | W+20.5 | 146.5 | U129 | 128.1 | 83.8 | 60.9 |
| Feb 21 | Army | A | W 81–63 | −7.5 | W+10.5 | 137.5 | O144 | 126.5 | 98.4 | 64.0 |
| Feb 18 | Lehigh | H | W 72–49 | −10.0 | W+13.0 | 139.5 | U121 | 111.7 | 76.0 | 64.5 |
| Feb 14 | Colgate | A | W 84–80 OT | −2.0 | W+2.0 | 139.0 | O164 | 117.4 | 111.8 | 71.6 |
| Feb 9 | Bucknell | A | W 76–60 | −6.5 | W+9.5 | 136.0 | P136 | 109.9 | 86.7 | 69.2 |
| Feb 7 | American | H | W 82–73 | −4.5 | W+4.5 | 134.0 | O155 | 127.1 | 113.2 | 64.5 |
Rider
Against the spread
Season
9-17-2
Home
3-8-1
Road
6-9-1
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −3.9
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
9-19
Home
4-8
Road
5-11
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +4.0
Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 | Siena | A | L 61–76 | +14.5 | L−0.5 | 137.5 | U137 | 91.6 | 114.2 | 66.6 |
| Feb 27 | Iona | A | L 58–80 | +11.5 | L−10.5 | 141.0 | U138 | 80.9 | 111.5 | 71.7 |
| Feb 22 | Niagara | H | W 67–62 | +2.0 | W+7.0 | 130.5 | U129 | 103.3 | 95.5 | 64.9 |
| Feb 20 | Canisius | H | L 66–72 | −1.0 | L−7.0 | 131.0 | O138 | 97.8 | 106.7 | 67.5 |
| Feb 15 | Sacred Heart | A | L 75–86 | +9.0 | L−2.0 | 146.5 | O161 | 108.6 | 124.5 | 69.1 |
| Feb 13 | Mount St Marys | H | L 55–65 | +5.0 | L−5.0 | 138.5 | U120 | 84.7 | 100.1 | 64.9 |
| Feb 7 | Merrimack | H | L 47–73 | +8.5 | L−17.5 | 137.5 | U120 | 81.8 | 127.1 | 57.5 |
| Feb 5 | Marist | A | L 52–81 | +14.0 | L−15.0 | 135.5 | U133 | 88.1 | 137.2 | 59.0 |
| Feb 1 | Saint Peter's | H | W 81–78 | +7.5 | W+10.5 | 136.0 | O159 | 124.1 | 119.5 | 65.3 |
| Jan 30 | Manhattan | A | L 90–95 | +6.0 | W+1.0 | 146.0 | O185 | 133.6 | 141.1 | 67.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNavyRider
Efficiency
108.5
100.0
104.9
115.1
66.8
67.2
—
—
Shooting
53.1%
42.8%
52.7%
43.3%
35.8%
27.7%
73.6%
70.1%
38.8%
30.1%
Ball control & glass
16.8%
16.9%
18.3%
15.3%
31.9%
32.6%
27.4%
32.8%
9.2%
9.9%
7.8%
8.3%
Style
33.1%
27.5%
44.8%
43.2%
11.6%
12.6%
61.2%
44.3%
25.5%
33.0%
Roster
3.56
3.88
6'3.7"
6'0.8"
—
0.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNavy
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Navy's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Rider
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Flash Burton 32.1 mpg, 15.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Zion Cruz 30.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Caleb Smith 29.8 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Shemani Fuller 21.4 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Davis Bynum 18.3 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cole McCabe 12.2 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Mark Butler from Lafayette · 33.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
- Khalil Farmer from UMass Lowell · 14.2 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
- Bryce Baker from Charleston · 3.3 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Horace Simmons Jr. from Drexel · 2.7 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
- Ty Bevins from G Washington · 2.2 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
- Rich Brisco from Akron · 0.7 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.