CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCajundome, Lafayette, LA
McNeese
Efficiency #49
2025-26: 28-6 · 21-3 conf
@
Louisiana
Efficiency #318
2025-26: 11-22 · 8-12 conf
Sat, Nov 28 · 4:00 PM ET
72.9
win 77%
Projected
64.5
win 23%
No line posted yet.
Model: MCN −8.4 · total 137.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Louisiana 65.6, McNeese 67.4 → 64.8 possessions
−7.7
Louisiana offense vs McNeese defense
−7.6
McNeese offense vs Louisiana defense
+4.5
Projected total
137.4
Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Louisiana offense vs McNeese defense
−7.6
McNeese offense vs Louisiana defense
−4.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
McNeese by 8.4
8.4
McNeese side ◂▸ Louisiana side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Louisiana.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, McNeese is the faster team (66.4, #282 of 365) and Louisiana the slower (64.1, #354). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
64.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
137.4
model
Projected team totals
72.9 / 64.5
McNeese / Louisiana
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.4#255
McNeese
65.6#353
Louisiana

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageLouisiana
Where Louisiana struggles: ball control
Louisiana turns it over on 16.8% of possessions (#185); McNeese forces turnovers on 24.5% of opponent possessions (#1). Expect about 21.7%, 4.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.0 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Louisiana averages 64.1 possessions per 40, McNeese 66.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashLouisiana
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
Louisiana (#59 in shot-blocking exposure) against McNeese (#4 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 13.2%. Historically McNeese's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
ClashLouisiana
Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers
Louisiana (#31 in live-ball turnovers) against McNeese (#1 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 12.5%. Historically McNeese's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).
AdvantageMcNeese
Where McNeese scores: the offensive glass
McNeese rebounds 35.1% of its own misses (#46); Louisiana lets opponents grab 32.3% of their own misses (#272). Expect about 34.6%, 4.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashMcNeese
Style match: 3-point volume
McNeese rarely shoots threes (35.2% of its shots); Louisiana runs teams off the line (36.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 34.0% — both habits push the same way.
McNeese has the ball
OffenseLouisiana allowsvs D1 avg
50.7% #202
52.6% #247
+0.5 pt/100
14.2% #28
18.3% #85
+0.6 pt/100
35.1% #46
32.3% #272
+2.6 pt/100
37.4% #114
45.8% #352
+0.9 pt/100
74.4% #109
—
+0.2 pt/100
McNeese net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.8 pts/100
Louisiana has the ball
OffenseMcNeese allowsvs D1 avg
47.1% #334
49.3% #76
-4.9 pt/100
16.8% #185
24.5% #1
-6.0 pt/100
28.3% #251
34.9% #338
+0.5 pt/100
28.7% #334
42.1% #323
+0.1 pt/100
70.4% #261
—
-0.2 pt/100
Louisiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -10.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
McNeeseoffense vsLouisianadefense
Share of shots by zone
McNeese shoots
Louisiana allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.3%#21958.4%#16158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.1%#10343.5%#25939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.3%#10332.4%#2038.0%
Three31.7%#29035.6%#28633.7%
Louisianaoffense vsMcNeesedefense
Share of shots by zone
Louisiana shoots
McNeese allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim51.4%#35254.1%#4258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.5%#9240.0%#19139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.6%#19736.0%#10938.0%
Three33.6%#18932.7%#10233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
McNeese
+6.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#12 of 365
Off reb %
35.1%
#46
Def reb %
65.1%
#338
Turnover %
14.2%
#28
Forced TO %
24.5%
#1
FT rate
37.4%
#114
FT allowed
42.1%
#323
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security+1.8
Forcing turnovers+5.3
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−1.7
Louisiana
−4.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#338 of 365
Off reb %
28.3%
#251
Def reb %
67.7%
#272
Turnover %
16.8%
#185
Forced TO %
18.3%
#85
FT rate
28.7%
#334
FT allowed
45.8%
#352
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.6
Foul shots allowed−2.7

McNeese has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.1 (#12 of 365) to Louisiana’s −4.4 (#338).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

McNeese2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Javohn GarciaGSr6'3"30-3029.711.93.11.60.653.3%37.4%3.676.7%22.5%
8Tyshawn ArchieGJr6'1"34-2425.614.31.92.91.551.2%36.9%5.290.0%34.2%
6Larry JohnsonGFr6'4"34-2625.417.45.51.41.152.1%23.8%3.177.7%38.6%
2DJ Richards Jr.GSr6'4"34-922.08.32.10.70.851.4%35.9%5.078.5%22.2%
7Jerrell ColbertFSr6'10"34-2419.85.64.10.51.155.6%20.0%0.156.0%18.4%
10Jacolb Fredson-ColeFSo6'7"34-1518.75.54.11.40.942.0%13.5%1.177.4%20.0%
23Carl CherenfantGJr6'5"33-1516.34.13.00.90.850.5%21.4%0.873.5%16.4%
15Peitok MacharFSo6'10"34-612.53.53.10.10.370.3%0.0%0.157.7%13.5%
13Yanis NdjongaFJr6'8"27-410.72.53.50.10.365.9%33.3%0.283.3%11.7%
9JJ RembertGFr5'10"8-04.80.50.01.50.310.0%0.0%0.4100.0%18.0%
27Abdou Akim Mazou TahirouFFr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14Erik VillarrealGSo6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Kaleb BrewerGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
0T'Johnn BrownGJr5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
McNeeseLouisiana
Efficiency
113.0
101.8
103.4
110.9
67.4
65.6
—
—
Shooting
50.7%
47.1%
52.3%
44.8%
31.7%
33.6%
74.4%
70.4%
37.4%
28.7%
Ball control & glass
14.2%
16.8%
24.5%
18.3%
35.1%
28.3%
34.9%
32.3%
6.7%
7.8%
6.7%
8.0%
Style
35.2%
40.5%
46.2%
34.8%
19.1%
10.5%
49.0%
45.9%
40.0%
33.1%
Roster
2.91
2.41
6'5.1"
6'5.1"
86.9%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
McNeese
Returning minutes: 86.9%Returning production: 86.3%
Lost
  • Garwey Dual 26.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
Added
  • Kaleb Brewer no D1 minutes last season
  • T'Johnn Brown no D1 minutes last season
  • Erik Villarreal no D1 minutes last season
  • Abdou Akim Mazou Tahirou no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Louisiana
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Louisiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Fri, Nov 142025-26Louisiana 62 – 88 McNeese

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.