CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceEagleBank Arena, Fairfax, VA
Marist
Efficiency #153
2025-26: 19-12 · 13-9 conf
@
George Mason
Efficiency #83
2025-26: 23-10 · 11-8 conf
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
63.8
win 29%
Projected
70.2
win 71%
No line posted yet.
Model: GMU −6.4 · total 134.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: George Mason 65.9, Marist 67.6 → 65.1 possessions
−6.9
George Mason offense vs Marist defense
−2.3
Marist offense vs George Mason defense
−4.9
Projected total
134.0
Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
George Mason offense vs Marist defense
−2.3
Marist offense vs George Mason defense
+4.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
George Mason by 6.4
6.4
Marist side ◂▸ George Mason side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 134.1 against a projected 134.0, and the margin steps add to +6.3 against +6.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help George Mason.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Marist is the faster team (66.5, #271 of 365) and George Mason the slower (64.7, #334). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
134.0
model
Projected team totals
63.8 / 70.2
Marist / George Mason
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.6#246
Marist
65.9#345
George Mason
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
George Mason averages 64.7 possessions per 40, Marist 66.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageGeorge Mason
Where George Mason struggles: shooting
George Mason shoots an effective 52.7% (#113); Marist allows 45.6% (#5). Expect about 49.2%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageMarist
Where Marist struggles: shooting
Marist shoots an effective 49.3% (#276); George Mason allows 49.5% (#83). Expect about 49.2%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Marist's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Marist at about 37.4% of its shots from three, George Mason about 34.3%.
Marist has the ball
OffenseGeorge Mason allowsvs D1 avg
49.3% #276
49.5% #83
-2.9 pt/100
16.9% #193
15.4% #256
+1.0 pt/100
29.1% #233
28.3% #79
-1.2 pt/100
25.7% #360
28.9% #43
-1.0 pt/100
78.1% #16
—
+0.5 pt/100
Marist net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.6 pts/100
George Mason has the ball
OffenseMarist allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #113
45.6% #5
-2.9 pt/100
15.8% #122
19.5% #34
-1.4 pt/100
31.3% #149
28.3% #77
-0.2 pt/100
41.1% #44
37.6% #252
+0.6 pt/100
72.5% #188
—
+0.0 pt/100
George Mason net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMaristoffense vsGeorge Masondefense
Share of shots by zone
Marist shoots
35.8
6.9
23.6
33.7
George Mason allows
36.2
7.3
14.6
42.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.4%#181 | 60.1%#234 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.7%#152 | 38.8%#157 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.5%#92 | 30.9%#8 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.2%#272 | 32.6%#91 | 33.7% |
George Masonoffense vsMaristdefense
Share of shots by zone
George Mason shoots
39.9
8.7
16.4
35.0
Marist allows
37.4
6.1
19.2
37.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.8%#40 | 54.0%#40 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.5%#34 | 36.7%#105 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.0%#313 | 34.9%#72 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.3%#214 | 28.6%#2 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMarist
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#218 of 365
Off reb %
29.1%
#233
Def reb %
71.7%
#77
Turnover %
16.9%
#193
Forced TO %
19.5%
#34
FT rate
25.7%
#360
FT allowed
37.6%
#252
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+1.9
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.6
George Mason
+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#36 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#149
Def reb %
71.7%
#79
Turnover %
15.8%
#122
Forced TO %
15.4%
#256
FT rate
41.1%
#44
FT allowed
28.9%
#43
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed+1.6
George Mason has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.1 (#36 of 365) to Marist’s −0.8 (#218).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Marist2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jadin Collins-Roberts | G | Sr | 6'1" | 31-31 | 30.3 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 47.2% | 23.8% | 1.4 | 80.4% | 18.4% | |
| 1 | Jack Grahamat New Hampshire | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-23 | 28.0 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 50.7% | 32.2% | 5.8 | 66.7% | 25.2% | |
| 5 | Myles Parker | F | So | 6'8" | 31-0 | 14.5 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 59.1% | 38.5% | 2.5 | 78.6% | 19.4% | |
| 21 | Jordan Gabriel | C | So | 6'9" | 25-0 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 53.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 45.5% | 21.5% | |
| 25 | Tarik Watson | C | Jr | 6'8" | 10-0 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 44.8% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 35.1% | |
| 23 | Brady MacAdams | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Brandon Arnold | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Cameron Sweeney | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Drew Diaz | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Dywane Chess | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Edward Onyia | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Josh Williams | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Logan Franz | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Logan Rodriguez | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Jack Graham (from New Hampshire)
George Mason2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted George Mason's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kory Mincy | G | Jr | 6'2" | 33-32 | 34.0 | 14.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 53.5% | 38.9% | 5.3 | 88.7% | 25.5% | |
| 2 | Jahari Long | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 33.8 | 12.2 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 53.8% | 37.7% | 3.9 | 82.6% | 22.1% | |
| 35 | Riley Allenspach | F | Jr | 6'11" | 32-31 | 24.9 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 60.2% | 31.3% | 2.1 | 68.0% | 30.2% | |
| 0 | Masai Troutman | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-22 | 25.1 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 49.2% | 33.3% | 3.1 | 81.1% | 21.9% | |
| 5 | Fatt Hill | G | Sr | 6'5" | 23-4 | 24.1 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 51.6% | 28.0% | 1.1 | 73.7% | 27.9% | |
| 13 | Malik Presley | G | Jr | 6'6" | 33-22 | 16.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 53.5% | 31.8% | 0.7 | 44.4% | 14.4% | |
| 10 | Emmanuel Kanga | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-0 | 13.3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 58.1% | — | 0.0 | 59.5% | 20.3% | |
| 23 | Nick Ellington | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-5 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 57.1% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 64.7% | 21.9% | |
| 9 | Stas Sivka | F | So | 6'10" | 29-2 | 11.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 47.4% | 28.2% | 1.3 | 73.3% | 14.7% | |
| 4 | Dola Adebayo | F | Sr | 6'8" | 27-13 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 46.2% | 26.1% | 0.9 | 80.8% | 20.7% | |
| 11 | Devin Booker | G | Fr | 6'4" | 25-0 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 35.6% | 22.6% | 1.2 | 53.3% | 19.8% | |
| 1 | Brayden O'Connor | G | Sr | 6'5" | 1-1 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 44.0% | |
| 14 | T.J. Prosise | G | So | 6'3" | 6-0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 22.2% | |
| 12 | Ben Woodward | G | Jr | 6'4" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | — | 22.5% | |
| 7 | Isaiah Skinn | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Ryan-Preston Mendy | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Marist2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jadin Collins-Roberts | G | Sr | 6'1" | 31-31 | 30.3 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 47.2% | 23.8% | 1.4 | 80.4% | 18.4% | |
| 1 | Jack Grahamat New Hampshire | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-23 | 28.0 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 50.7% | 32.2% | 5.8 | 66.7% | 25.2% | |
| 5 | Myles Parker | F | So | 6'8" | 31-0 | 14.5 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 59.1% | 38.5% | 2.5 | 78.6% | 19.4% | |
| 21 | Jordan Gabriel | C | So | 6'9" | 25-0 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 53.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 45.5% | 21.5% | |
| 25 | Tarik Watson | C | Jr | 6'8" | 10-0 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 44.8% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 35.1% | |
| 23 | Brady MacAdams | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Brandon Arnold | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Cameron Sweeney | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Drew Diaz | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Dywane Chess | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Edward Onyia | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Josh Williams | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Logan Franz | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Logan Rodriguez | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Jack Graham (from New Hampshire)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Marist
Against the spread
Season
15-14-1
Home
7-6-1
Road
6-8
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −1.6
Covered 2 straightCovered 3 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
11-19
Home
4-10
Road
6-8
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −5.5
Under in the last gameOver in 1 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Merrimack | N | L 57–58 | +3.0 | W+2.0 | 128.5 | U115 | 89.2 | 90.7 | 63.9 |
| Mar 7 | Quinnipiac | N | W 77–75 | +2.0 | W+4.0 | 134.5 | O152 | 105.4 | 102.6 | 73.1 |
| Mar 1 | Saint Peter's | H | L 56–63 | −4.0 | L−11.0 | 132.0 | U119 | 87.6 | 98.6 | 63.9 |
| Feb 22 | Sacred Heart | H | W 65–63 | −7.5 | L−5.5 | 146.5 | U128 | 96.0 | 93.1 | 67.7 |
| Feb 20 | Manhattan | A | W 84–70 | −5.0 | W+9.0 | 142.0 | O154 | 131.2 | 109.3 | 64.0 |
| Feb 15 | Siena | H | L 63–67 | −2.0 | L−6.0 | 134.0 | U130 | 96.5 | 102.7 | 65.3 |
| Feb 12 | Merrimack | A | L 56–81 | +2.5 | L−22.5 | 129.5 | O137 | 84.5 | 122.2 | 66.3 |
| Feb 7 | Fairfield | A | L 60–63 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 138.0 | U123 | 98.1 | 103.0 | 61.2 |
| Feb 5 | Rider | H | W 81–52 | −14.0 | W+15.0 | 135.5 | U133 | 137.2 | 88.1 | 59.0 |
| Feb 1 | Niagara | A | W 58–46 | −9.5 | W+2.5 | 130.0 | U104 | 94.8 | 75.2 | 61.2 |
George Mason
Against the spread
Season
16-16
Home
11-8
Road
3-7
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −3.2
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
15-17
Home
8-11
Road
6-4
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −7.2
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17 | Liberty | H | L 71–77 | −3.0 | L−9.0 | 141.5 | O148 | 112.8 | 122.3 | 63.0 |
| Mar 12 | St Bonaventure | N | L 57–63 | −2.5 | L−8.5 | 142.5 | U120 | 93.7 | 103.5 | 60.9 |
| Mar 7 | #25Saint Louis | H | W 86–57 | +7.0 | W+36.0 | 147.0 | U143 | 136.6 | 90.6 | 62.9 |
| Mar 3 | VCU | A | L 65–70 | +10.0 | W+5.0 | 147.5 | U135 | 106.9 | 115.1 | 60.8 |
| Feb 28 | St Bonaventure | H | W 71–58 | −3.5 | W+9.5 | 147.0 | U129 | 119.8 | 97.9 | 59.3 |
| Feb 25 | Saint Joseph's | A | L 63–81 | −1.0 | L−19.0 | 136.5 | O144 | 97.7 | 125.7 | 64.5 |
| Feb 18 | Dayton | H | L 67–82 | −2.0 | L−17.0 | 137.0 | O149 | 106.8 | 130.8 | 62.7 |
| Feb 13 | G Washington | A | L 53–72 | +3.5 | L−15.5 | 150.0 | U125 | 90.2 | 122.6 | 58.8 |
| Feb 10 | Richmond | A | L 70–82 | −3.0 | L−15.0 | 140.0 | O152 | 99.8 | 116.9 | 70.1 |
| Feb 7 | Saint Joseph's | H | W 60–52 | −7.0 | W+1.0 | 139.5 | U112 | 99.5 | 86.2 | 60.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMaristGeorge Mason
Efficiency
103.6
110.8
102.6
105.7
67.6
65.9
—
—
Shooting
49.3%
52.7%
49.8%
54.3%
32.2%
33.3%
78.1%
72.5%
25.7%
41.1%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
15.8%
19.5%
15.4%
29.1%
31.3%
28.3%
28.3%
10.0%
9.6%
8.3%
9.8%
Style
34.6%
35.2%
43.6%
46.4%
11.2%
12.1%
58.9%
49.9%
35.5%
33.9%
Roster
3.46
3.24
6'3.8"
6'6"
26.9%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMarist
Returning minutes: 26.9%Returning production: 25.0%
Lost
- Rhyjon Blackwell 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Justin Menard 29.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Lewis 22.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaden Daughtry 21.0 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Parby Kabamba 16.8 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jason Schofield 14.0 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jack Graham from New Hampshire · 28.0 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
- Cameron Sweeney no D1 minutes last season
- Josh Williams no D1 minutes last season
- Edward Onyia no D1 minutes last season
- Logan Franz no D1 minutes last season
- Logan Rodriguez no D1 minutes last season
Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
George Mason
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted George Mason's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.