CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceIcardo Center, Bakersfield, CA

N Arizona

Efficiency #329

2025-26: 10-22 · 4-15 conf

Bakersfield

Efficiency #339

2025-26: 8-24 · 2-18 conf

Sat, Nov 28 · 5:00 PM ET

73.0

win 40%

Projected

76.0

win 60%

No line posted yet.

Model: CSUB −3.0 · total 149.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Bakersfield 70.2, N Arizona 66.0 → 67.8 possessions

−1.1

Bakersfield offense vs N Arizona defense

+0.5

N Arizona offense vs Bakersfield defense

+1.4

Projected total

149.0

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Bakersfield offense vs N Arizona defense

+0.5

N Arizona offense vs Bakersfield defense

−1.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Bakersfield by 3.0

3.0

N Arizona side ◂▸ Bakersfield side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Bakersfield.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bakersfield is the faster team (72.6, #14 of 365) and N Arizona the slower (65.5, #317). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

149.0

model

Projected team totals

73.0 / 76.0

N Arizona / Bakersfield

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.0#342

N Arizona

70.2#39

Bakersfield

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Bakersfield averages 72.6 possessions per 40, N Arizona 65.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 69 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

DefenseBakersfield

Bakersfield's shot-blocking

Bakersfield ranks #18 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.0% of N Arizona's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageN Arizona

Where N Arizona scores: shooting

N Arizona shoots an effective 51.7% (#161); Bakersfield allows 54.0% (#301). Expect about 52.9%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Bakersfield, N Arizona's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect N Arizona at about 36.9% of its shots from three, Bakersfield about 31.4%.

N Arizona has the ball

OffenseBakersfield allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #161

54.0% #301

+2.3 pt/100

16.0% #141

17.9% #100

-0.3 pt/100

23.3% #348

35.6% #349

-1.5 pt/100

31.8% #260

42.6% #334

+0.4 pt/100

68.9% #304

—

-0.3 pt/100

N Arizona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.5 pts/100

Bakersfield has the ball

OffenseN Arizona allowsvs D1 avg

45.7% #355

56.9% #355

-0.5 pt/100

18.9% #316

16.6% #180

-1.3 pt/100

30.4% #181

33.4% #305

+0.9 pt/100

42.2% #27

32.7% #124

+0.3 pt/100

73.8% #142

—

+0.1 pt/100

Bakersfield net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

N Arizonaoffense vsBakersfielddefense

Share of shots by zone

N Arizona shoots

38.6

7.1

19.1

35.2

Bakersfield allows

39.9

6.4

14.1

39.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.6%#284	60.1%#228	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.5%#31	42.6%#240	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.4%#101	40.7%#269	38.0%
Three	35.6%#79	36.0%#305	33.7%

Bakersfieldoffense vsN Arizonadefense

Share of shots by zone

Bakersfield shoots

38.4

7.3

25.7

28.6

N Arizona allows

42.8

5.2

11.7

40.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.4%#289	62.3%#307	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.3%#339	37.2%#115	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.0%#222	41.1%#278	38.0%
Three	29.0%#353	38.7%#362	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

N Arizona

−2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#300 of 365

Off reb %

23.3%

#348

Def reb %

66.6%

#305

Turnover %

16.0%

#141

Forced TO %

16.6%

#180

FT rate

31.8%

#260

FT allowed

32.7%

#124

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.3

Defensive rebounding−0.9

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers−0.1

Foul shots drawn−0.8

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Bakersfield

−2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#277 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#181

Def reb %

64.4%

#349

Turnover %

18.9%

#316

Forced TO %

17.9%

#100

FT rate

42.2%

#27

FT allowed

42.6%

#334

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed−1.9

Bakersfield has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.3 (#277 of 365) to N Arizona’s −2.9 (#300).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N Arizona2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N Arizona's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Ryan Abelman	G	Jr	6'4"	30-30	32.3	10.5	5.1	1.9	1.1	49.5%	36.1%	4.8	89.4%	20.3%
2	Chris Komin	G	Fr	6'3"	31-17	26.6	7.8	2.1	2.2	0.8	53.1%	35.7%	2.3	81.8%	17.3%
3	Traivar Jackson	F	Sr	6'7"	32-20	22.0	7.3	5.0	0.9	1.1	57.8%	—	0.0	64.8%	19.6%
9	Karl Poom	F	So	6'8"	32-2	19.6	8.9	3.3	1.2	1.7	54.2%	30.5%	1.8	54.4%	30.3%
7	Brennan Peterson	G	Fr	6'0"	32-16	19.4	4.8	0.7	2.0	0.8	56.5%	41.1%	2.8	71.4%	15.7%
24	Isaiah Shaw	G	Jr	6'8"	29-22	18.3	8.1	2.1	0.6	1.2	56.9%	46.4%	2.4	81.1%	25.1%
44	Arne Osojnik	G	Jr	6'6"	29-14	16.1	6.4	2.5	1.0	0.9	48.3%	32.4%	2.3	77.3%	26.8%
12	Diego Campisano	F	Sr	6'6"	26-9	17.8	7.0	2.4	0.5	0.5	52.1%	37.9%	3.7	76.9%	23.5%
22	Kavon Bradford	G	So	6'1"	28-12	16.2	5.3	1.6	1.7	1.3	44.9%	26.7%	0.5	65.6%	24.0%
5	Zack Davidson	F	So	6'9"	14-13	23.6	14.0	4.8	0.8	1.9	62.0%	25.0%	0.3	46.3%	33.1%
4	Oakland Fort	G	Sr	5'10"	29-5	11.1	3.1	0.8	1.5	0.5	57.3%	37.0%	0.9	50.0%	17.2%
82	Erez Poran	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	5.4	0.8	1.3	0.3	0.2	32.1%	14.3%	0.5	33.3%	15.0%
8	Walker Timme	F	Jr	6'7"	1-0	8.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	13.7%
0	JT Amundsen	G	Fr	5'8"	4-0	1.8	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.8	—	22.2%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bakersfield2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Bakersfield's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Dailin Smith	G	Sr	6'6"	30-27	29.3	16.5	2.4	0.9	1.6	41.2%	28.0%	5.4	80.6%	32.8%
10	AJ George	G	Sr	6'5"	30-29	28.1	8.2	3.5	1.5	1.7	41.3%	20.8%	1.6	65.0%	21.7%
21	Ronald Jessamy	F	Jr	6'8"	31-23	26.0	13.5	6.6	1.2	2.8	52.8%	20.0%	0.5	67.6%	31.0%
1	Tom Mark	F	Sr	6'7"	27-19	25.0	6.7	4.2	1.0	1.0	51.7%	32.7%	2.0	68.1%	15.4%
12	Kadar Waller	G	Sr	5'11"	32-6	20.5	3.3	1.8	2.8	1.3	38.5%	29.6%	0.8	73.8%	13.0%
0	CJ Hardy	G	Sr	6'3"	22-21	28.1	12.4	3.8	2.9	2.4	50.0%	31.3%	3.0	83.2%	25.7%
2	Mike Price	G	Fr	6'3"	31-5	18.2	6.5	1.1	0.8	1.2	43.9%	32.3%	3.1	70.4%	24.8%
7	Pierre Geneste Jr.	C	Sr	6'11"	26-19	18.9	3.0	7.0	0.3	0.8	61.1%	—	0.0	36.7%	10.3%
25	Jaden Alexander	G	Jr	6'4"	20-10	19.6	9.3	3.4	0.5	1.4	47.0%	35.3%	1.7	82.9%	27.6%
5	Bentley Waller	G	Fr	6'4"	22-1	11.1	4.0	1.3	0.6	1.0	49.3%	36.8%	0.9	87.5%	22.5%
3	Dylan Purnell	G	So	6'5"	16-0	8.6	2.6	1.9	0.3	0.6	39.3%	10.0%	0.6	42.9%	23.4%
4	Caleb McCarty	F	Sr	6'8"	6-0	8.7	3.2	2.5	0.3	0.2	61.5%	—	0.0	75.0%	16.6%
40	TJ James Jr.	G	Fr	6'1"	10-0	4.0	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	31.3%	15.4%	1.3	0.0%	21.2%
11	Colin Darby	F	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N Arizona2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N Arizona's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Ryan Abelman	G	Jr	6'4"	30-30	32.3	10.5	5.1	1.9	1.1	49.5%	36.1%	4.8	89.4%	20.3%
2	Chris Komin	G	Fr	6'3"	31-17	26.6	7.8	2.1	2.2	0.8	53.1%	35.7%	2.3	81.8%	17.3%
3	Traivar Jackson	F	Sr	6'7"	32-20	22.0	7.3	5.0	0.9	1.1	57.8%	—	0.0	64.8%	19.6%
9	Karl Poom	F	So	6'8"	32-2	19.6	8.9	3.3	1.2	1.7	54.2%	30.5%	1.8	54.4%	30.3%
7	Brennan Peterson	G	Fr	6'0"	32-16	19.4	4.8	0.7	2.0	0.8	56.5%	41.1%	2.8	71.4%	15.7%
24	Isaiah Shaw	G	Jr	6'8"	29-22	18.3	8.1	2.1	0.6	1.2	56.9%	46.4%	2.4	81.1%	25.1%
44	Arne Osojnik	G	Jr	6'6"	29-14	16.1	6.4	2.5	1.0	0.9	48.3%	32.4%	2.3	77.3%	26.8%
12	Diego Campisano	F	Sr	6'6"	26-9	17.8	7.0	2.4	0.5	0.5	52.1%	37.9%	3.7	76.9%	23.5%
22	Kavon Bradford	G	So	6'1"	28-12	16.2	5.3	1.6	1.7	1.3	44.9%	26.7%	0.5	65.6%	24.0%
5	Zack Davidson	F	So	6'9"	14-13	23.6	14.0	4.8	0.8	1.9	62.0%	25.0%	0.3	46.3%	33.1%
4	Oakland Fort	G	Sr	5'10"	29-5	11.1	3.1	0.8	1.5	0.5	57.3%	37.0%	0.9	50.0%	17.2%
82	Erez Poran	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	5.4	0.8	1.3	0.3	0.2	32.1%	14.3%	0.5	33.3%	15.0%
8	Walker Timme	F	Jr	6'7"	1-0	8.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	13.7%
0	JT Amundsen	G	Fr	5'8"	4-0	1.8	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.8	—	22.2%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

N Arizona

Against the spread

Season

14-15

Home

7-6

Road

6-8

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.5

Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 2 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-18

Home

6-7

Road

4-10

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −2.9

Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Idaho StAdjEM #253	N	L 65–73	+4.5	L−3.5	142.5	U138	98.2	110.3	66.2
Mar 2	Montana StAdjEM #130	H	L 65–76	+6.0	L−5.0	143.5	U141	106.6	124.6	61.0
Feb 28	E WashingtonAdjEM #189	A	L 57–88	+9.5	L−21.5	147.0	U145	89.7	138.6	63.5
Feb 26	IdahoAdjEM #156	A	L 58–78	+10.5	L−9.5	146.0	U136	95.6	128.6	60.7
Feb 21	N ColoradoAdjEM #146	A	L 77–78	+12.5	W+11.5	150.5	O155	115.6	117.1	66.6
Feb 14	Sacramento StAdjEM #280	H	W 79–74	−1.5	W+3.5	155.0	U153	111.2	104.2	71.0
Feb 12	Portland StAdjEM #145	H	L 68–77	+7.5	L−1.5	135.5	O145	107.6	121.8	63.2
Feb 7	Weber StAdjEM #203	A	L 53–72	+7.0	L−12.0	151.0	U125	90.3	122.6	58.7
Feb 5	Idaho StAdjEM #253	A	W 79–73	+8.0	W+14.0	141.5	O152	133.1	123.0	59.4
Jan 31	IdahoAdjEM #156	H	L 62–79	+5.5	L−11.5	147.0	U141	94.8	120.8	65.4

Bakersfield

Against the spread

Season

12-18

Home

6-9

Road

5-9

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −4.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 10 as an underdogCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

16-13-1

Home

7-8

Road

9-4-1

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +5.5

Over 7 straightOver in 7 of 10 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Cal PolyAdjEM #240	A	L 76–108	+9.0	L−23.0	173.0	O184	92.2	131.0	82.5
Mar 5	CSU NorthridgeAdjEM #196	H	L 84–86	+8.0	W+6.0	165.0	O170	105.7	108.2	79.5
Feb 28	Long Beach StAdjEM #267	H	L 87–88	+3.0	W+2.0	153.5	O175	117.3	118.6	74.2
Feb 26	UC San DiegoAdjEM #121	A	L 72–84	+14.5	W+2.5	149.0	O156	100.8	117.6	71.4
Feb 21	FullertonAdjEM #205	H	L 80–88	+6.0	L−2.0	161.0	O168	108.9	119.8	73.4
Feb 19	UC RiversideAdjEM #288	A	L 65–93	+7.0	L−21.0	151.5	O158	84.3	120.6	77.1
Feb 12	Hawai'iAdjEM #96	H	L 74–89	+13.5	L−1.5	151.5	O163	102.3	123.0	72.3
Feb 7	FullertonAdjEM #205	A	L 66–82	+10.0	L−6.0	158.0	U148	89.0	110.6	74.2
Feb 5	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	A	L 62–78	+17.0	W+1.0	144.5	U140	84.7	106.6	73.2
Jan 31	UC DavisAdjEM #185	H	L 72–80	+5.5	L−2.5	152.5	U152	103.4	114.9	69.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

N ArizonaBakersfield

Efficiency

105.0

102.7

115.1

114.0

66.0

70.2

—

Shooting

51.7%

45.7%

50.7%

46.6%

35.6%

29.0%

68.9%

73.8%

31.8%

42.2%

Ball control & glass

16.0%

18.9%

16.6%

17.9%

23.3%

30.4%

33.4%

35.6%

8.4%

10.4%

8.9%

9.1%

Style

36.7%

28.9%

44.1%

41.8%

10.0%

16.0%

51.0%

44.6%

35.9%

32.3%

Roster

2.54

3.37

6'4.6"

6'5.1"

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

N Arizona

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted N Arizona's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Bakersfield

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Bakersfield's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.