CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCorbett Sports Center, Greensboro, NC
Delaware St
Efficiency #358
2025-26: 8-23 · 3-13 conf
@
NC A&T
Efficiency #271
2025-26: 11-19 · 4-15 conf
Sat, Nov 28 · 2:00 PM ET
64.7
win 17%
Projected
75.6
win 83%
No line posted yet.
Model: NCAT −10.9 · total 140.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: NC A&T 69.0, Delaware St 67.1 → 67.8 possessions
−1.1
NC A&T offense vs Delaware St defense
+0.1
Delaware St offense vs NC A&T defense
−6.9
Projected total
140.4
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
NC A&T offense vs Delaware St defense
+0.1
Delaware St offense vs NC A&T defense
+6.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
NC A&T by 10.9
10.9
Delaware St side ◂▸ NC A&T side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 140.3 against a projected 140.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help NC A&T.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, NC A&T is the faster team (69.1, #141 of 365) and Delaware St the slower (66.1, #293). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
140.4
model
Projected team totals
64.7 / 75.6
Delaware St / NC A&T
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.1#279
Delaware St
69.0#121
NC A&T

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageDelaware St
Where Delaware St struggles: shooting
Delaware St shoots an effective 42.9% (#364); NC A&T allows 52.9% (#266). Expect about 47.3%, 4.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.7 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageNC A&T
Where NC A&T struggles: ball control
NC A&T turns it over on 18.6% of possessions (#305); Delaware St forces turnovers on 19.5% of opponent possessions (#33). Expect about 19.5%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.
ClashNC A&T
Style match: 3-point volume
NC A&T rarely shoots threes (32.7% of its shots); Delaware St runs teams off the line (34.7% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 30.9% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Delaware St, NC A&T's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Delaware St at about 30.1% of its shots from three, NC A&T about 30.9%.
GlassDelaware St
Delaware St gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.7% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Delaware St's offense.
ClashDelaware St
Style clash: ball movement
Delaware St creates off the dribble (assists on 45.8% of its baskets); NC A&T allows assists on 58.5% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Delaware St has the ball
OffenseNC A&T allowsvs D1 avg
42.9% #364
52.9% #266
-5.7 pt/100
19.9% #347
14.1% #331
-0.1 pt/100
27.7% #277
28.6% #89
-1.7 pt/100
34.1% #204
37.5% #250
+0.1 pt/100
68.9% #301
—
-0.3 pt/100
Delaware St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.6 pts/100
NC A&T has the ball
OffenseDelaware St allowsvs D1 avg
50.7% #201
52.9% #265
+0.7 pt/100
18.6% #305
19.5% #33
-3.4 pt/100
31.7% #136
32.0% #257
+1.0 pt/100
42.3% #26
40.5% #307
+0.8 pt/100
73.5% #154
—
+0.1 pt/100
NC A&T net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Delaware Stoffense vsNC A&Tdefense
Share of shots by zone
Delaware St shoots
NC A&T allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim50.7%#35560.0%#22558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.0%#33236.9%#10939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.5%#27539.0%#20238.0%
Three28.4%#36136.6%#33133.7%
NC A&Toffense vsDelaware Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
NC A&T shoots
Delaware St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.9%#9763.0%#32558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.4%#29735.4%#7139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)41.5%#7232.4%#1938.0%
Three31.6%#30433.0%#12333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Delaware St
−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#306 of 365
Off reb %
27.7%
#277
Def reb %
68.0%
#257
Turnover %
19.9%
#347
Forced TO %
19.5%
#33
FT rate
34.1%
#204
FT allowed
40.5%
#307
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−2.1
Forcing turnovers+1.9
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed−1.4
NC A&T
−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#209 of 365
Off reb %
31.7%
#136
Def reb %
71.4%
#89
Turnover %
18.6%
#305
Forced TO %
14.1%
#331
FT rate
42.3%
#26
FT allowed
37.5%
#250
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.8
Foul shots drawn+1.9
Foul shots allowed−0.6

NC A&T has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.7 (#209 of 365) to Delaware St’s −3.1 (#306).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Delaware St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Delaware St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Ponce JamesGSo5'11"27-2732.813.62.93.42.144.4%32.8%4.584.7%29.4%
2Corey PerkinsGSr6'2"28-2027.37.32.52.92.343.4%32.5%1.467.6%21.8%
3Miles WebbFSr6'8"26-2027.39.55.90.71.658.4%40.9%0.848.1%21.8%
42Bessanty SaragbaFSr6'9"25-1722.13.23.20.20.745.2%—0.056.0%11.1%
0Rahmir MooreGSr6'3"26-2221.26.62.81.11.043.8%31.3%2.675.8%21.4%
4Zion BetheaGSr6'4"29-1415.35.42.20.61.040.0%26.8%2.866.7%27.9%
37Ademar SantosFJr6'8"22-1220.07.12.40.51.143.9%30.3%3.076.0%25.8%
8Jalen St ClairGFr6'1"25-014.33.60.91.21.036.3%17.9%1.161.1%22.9%
10Cyril ObasogieCJr6'11"24-1114.82.84.00.30.543.5%—0.043.8%15.4%
35Muazibini AdamuCJr6'10"25-612.91.93.20.30.842.9%—0.033.3%14.0%
22Dean ShepherdGJr6'3"27-311.54.01.30.40.437.5%21.7%0.976.9%22.3%
13Kareem WatsonFSo6'8"19-211.13.81.90.31.039.8%0.0%0.170.0%30.5%
11Camian ShellGSr5'10"7-124.08.01.91.92.450.0%50.0%1.166.7%24.9%
5John ClemmonsGSo6'6"23-07.02.71.20.00.530.2%17.2%1.377.8%31.6%
—Omar StephenFSr—7-02.11.30.30.00.050.0%50.0%0.366.7%32.5%
—Theodore Pendergrass IIIGSo6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Delaware StNC A&T
Efficiency
94.5
106.4
110.7
112.3
67.1
69.0
—
—
Shooting
42.9%
50.7%
43.1%
52.3%
28.4%
31.6%
68.9%
73.5%
34.1%
42.3%
Ball control & glass
19.9%
18.6%
19.5%
14.1%
27.7%
31.7%
32.0%
28.6%
9.7%
9.7%
11.0%
8.4%
Style
28.9%
32.7%
41.6%
41.2%
17.6%
15.4%
45.8%
45.4%
35.2%
30.2%
Roster
3.20
2.42
6'4.6"
6'6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Delaware St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Delaware St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

NC A&T
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted NC A&T's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.