CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBanterra Center, Carbondale, IL
Portland St
Efficiency #145
2025-26: 20-11 · 14-6 conf
@
S Illinois
Efficiency #107
2025-26: 16-16 · 10-11 conf
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
67.1
win 32%
Projected
72.4
win 68%
No line posted yet.
Model: SIU −5.4 · total 139.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: S Illinois 69.4, Portland St 68.6 → 69.7 possessions
+2.9
S Illinois offense vs Portland St defense
−5.1
Portland St offense vs S Illinois defense
−6.5
Projected total
139.5
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
S Illinois offense vs Portland St defense
−5.1
Portland St offense vs S Illinois defense
+6.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
S Illinois by 5.4
5.4
Portland St side ◂▸ S Illinois side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help S Illinois.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, S Illinois is the faster team (69.8, #100 of 365) and Portland St the slower (69.0, #147). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.5
model
Projected team totals
67.1 / 72.4
Portland St / S Illinois
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.6#157
Portland St
69.4#91
S Illinois
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageS Illinois
Where S Illinois struggles: shooting
S Illinois shoots an effective 49.2% (#286); Portland St allows 48.8% (#56). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantagePortland St
Where Portland St struggles: shooting
Portland St shoots an effective 50.6% (#211); S Illinois allows 49.0% (#70). Expect about 49.7%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (S Illinois, S Illinois's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Portland St at about 36.8% of its shots from three, S Illinois about 31.4%.
Portland St has the ball
OffenseS Illinois allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #211
49.0% #70
-2.2 pt/100
16.9% #200
18.5% #75
-1.5 pt/100
30.0% #199
27.3% #44
-1.1 pt/100
37.1% #126
31.4% #95
-0.1 pt/100
71.0% #238
—
-0.1 pt/100
Portland St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.1 pts/100
S Illinois has the ball
OffensePortland St allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #286
48.8% #56
-3.6 pt/100
17.0% #207
18.0% #95
-1.2 pt/100
30.9% #167
26.4% #23
-1.0 pt/100
31.3% #275
42.8% #337
+0.3 pt/100
68.3% #321
—
-0.4 pt/100
S Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.7 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersPortland Stoffense vsS Illinoisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Portland St shoots
46.3
7.6
12.4
33.7
S Illinois allows
35.9
6.1
16.5
41.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.0%#239 | 58.1%#148 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.5%#257 | 36.2%#93 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.7%#244 | 42.4%#315 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.6%#250 | 30.4%#17 | 33.7% |
S Illinoisoffense vsPortland Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
S Illinois shoots
40.7
7.4
23.0
28.9
Portland St allows
38.1
7.2
15.1
39.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.7%#169 | 55.3%#69 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.9%#81 | 39.4%#169 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.0%#57 | 36.2%#118 | 38.0% |
| Three | 27.8%#363 | 32.3%#77 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersPortland St
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#153 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#199
Def reb %
73.6%
#23
Turnover %
16.9%
#200
Forced TO %
18.0%
#95
FT rate
37.1%
#126
FT allowed
42.8%
#337
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+0.9
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed−1.9
S Illinois
+2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#81 of 365
Off reb %
30.9%
#167
Def reb %
72.7%
#44
Turnover %
17.0%
#207
Forced TO %
18.5%
#75
FT rate
31.3%
#275
FT allowed
31.4%
#95
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+1.0
S Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#81 of 365) to Portland St’s +0.6 (#153).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Portland St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Portland St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jaylin Henderson | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 37.3 | 18.2 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 45.9% | 26.6% | 4.0 | 78.7% | 31.6% | |
| 23 | Terri Miller Jr. | F | Sr | 6'8" | 30-30 | 31.5 | 19.1 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 56.6% | 38.8% | 4.6 | 69.9% | 35.1% | |
| 4 | Tre-Vaughn Minott | C | Sr | 6'10" | 31-31 | 28.6 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 65.6% | — | 0.0 | 61.4% | 17.4% | |
| 0 | Keyon Kensie Jr. | G | Jr | 6'8" | 29-29 | 30.3 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46.8% | 28.7% | 2.8 | 72.4% | 22.9% | |
| 1 | Kelcy Phipps | G | So | 6'2" | 31-4 | 17.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 59.5% | 43.1% | 1.9 | 47.7% | 16.0% | |
| 15 | Alex Dupre | G | Fr | 6'5" | 30-26 | 15.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 37.5% | 29.4% | 1.7 | 83.9% | 14.7% | |
| 21 | Isaiah Williams | G | Sr | 6'7" | 24-3 | 14.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 47.1% | 24.4% | 1.7 | 75.0% | 15.9% | |
| 6 | Sebastian Tidor | G | Jr | 6'5" | 27-0 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 49.1% | 34.2% | 2.9 | 70.0% | 20.8% | |
| 3 | Brycen Long | G | Sr | 6'2" | 27-0 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 52.6% | 37.3% | 1.9 | 83.3% | 17.8% | |
| 2 | Mozae Downing-Rivers | G | Sr | 6'6" | 19-0 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 100.0% | 15.3% | |
| 7 | Charles Chukwu | F | Jr | 6'9" | 21-0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 83.3% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 13.0% | |
| 32 | Brayden Barron | F | Fr | 6'6" | 18-0 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 52.9% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 16.0% | |
| 10 | Colt Ness | G | Fr | 6'0" | 10-1 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 30.8% | 0.0% | 0.4 | — | 17.7% | |
| 12 | Samuel Stewart IV | G | Sr | 6'4" | 11-0 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 34.6% | 12.5% | 0.7 | — | 15.7% | |
| 13 | Kean Webb | F | So | 6'11" | 4-0 | 6.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 14.3% | 11.8% | |
| 9 | Isaac Brice | F | Sr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 35 | Matt Beatty | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
S Illinois2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Quel'Ron House | G | So | 6'0" | 30-28 | 30.1 | 15.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 48.3% | 25.5% | 1.8 | 75.0% | 32.3% | |
| 10 | Damien Mayo Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-25 | 25.4 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 53.5% | 37.1% | 3.1 | 78.4% | 21.1% | |
| 0 | Rolyns Aligbe | F | So | 6'9" | 32-32 | 24.4 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 51.6% | 34.8% | 2.2 | 66.2% | 23.4% | |
| 5 | Jalen Haynes | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-7 | 20.8 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 46.3% | 20.5% | 2.4 | 78.2% | 24.9% | |
| 8 | Prince Aligbe | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-29 | 22.1 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 44.5% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 56.1% | 23.8% | |
| 4 | Davion Sykes | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-3 | 19.0 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 52.2% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 71.4% | 22.5% | |
| 9 | Isaiah Stafford | G | Sr | 6'2" | 16-4 | 19.1 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 43.4% | 20.4% | 3.1 | 75.8% | 25.0% | |
| 35 | Max Pikaar | F | So | 7'0" | 27-0 | 10.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 41.5% | 25.9% | 1.0 | 61.1% | 13.4% | |
| 25 | Jorge Moreno | F | Sr | 6'11" | 25-0 | 10.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 64.4% | — | 0.0 | 41.9% | 16.5% | |
| 33 | Jaheem Webber | C | Fr | 6'10" | 19-0 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 63.2% | — | 0.0 | 25.0% | 11.7% | |
| 3 | Caden Hawkins | G | Jr | 6'0" | 15-0 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 36.4% | 0.7 | 44.4% | 16.1% | |
| 7 | Daniel Pauliukonis | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Luke Walsh | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Portland St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Portland St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jaylin Henderson | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 37.3 | 18.2 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 45.9% | 26.6% | 4.0 | 78.7% | 31.6% | |
| 23 | Terri Miller Jr. | F | Sr | 6'8" | 30-30 | 31.5 | 19.1 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 56.6% | 38.8% | 4.6 | 69.9% | 35.1% | |
| 4 | Tre-Vaughn Minott | C | Sr | 6'10" | 31-31 | 28.6 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 65.6% | — | 0.0 | 61.4% | 17.4% | |
| 0 | Keyon Kensie Jr. | G | Jr | 6'8" | 29-29 | 30.3 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46.8% | 28.7% | 2.8 | 72.4% | 22.9% | |
| 1 | Kelcy Phipps | G | So | 6'2" | 31-4 | 17.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 59.5% | 43.1% | 1.9 | 47.7% | 16.0% | |
| 15 | Alex Dupre | G | Fr | 6'5" | 30-26 | 15.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 37.5% | 29.4% | 1.7 | 83.9% | 14.7% | |
| 21 | Isaiah Williams | G | Sr | 6'7" | 24-3 | 14.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 47.1% | 24.4% | 1.7 | 75.0% | 15.9% | |
| 6 | Sebastian Tidor | G | Jr | 6'5" | 27-0 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 49.1% | 34.2% | 2.9 | 70.0% | 20.8% | |
| 3 | Brycen Long | G | Sr | 6'2" | 27-0 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 52.6% | 37.3% | 1.9 | 83.3% | 17.8% | |
| 2 | Mozae Downing-Rivers | G | Sr | 6'6" | 19-0 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 100.0% | 15.3% | |
| 7 | Charles Chukwu | F | Jr | 6'9" | 21-0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 83.3% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 13.0% | |
| 32 | Brayden Barron | F | Fr | 6'6" | 18-0 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 52.9% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 16.0% | |
| 10 | Colt Ness | G | Fr | 6'0" | 10-1 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 30.8% | 0.0% | 0.4 | — | 17.7% | |
| 12 | Samuel Stewart IV | G | Sr | 6'4" | 11-0 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 34.6% | 12.5% | 0.7 | — | 15.7% | |
| 13 | Kean Webb | F | So | 6'11" | 4-0 | 6.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 14.3% | 11.8% | |
| 9 | Isaac Brice | F | Sr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 35 | Matt Beatty | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Portland St
Against the spread
Season
19-9
Home
7-4
Road
11-4
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −2.8
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
12-16
Home
3-8
Road
7-8
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +1.1
Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | Montana | N | L 72–75 | −3.5 | L−6.5 | 145.0 | O147 | 97.8 | 101.9 | 73.6 |
| Mar 8 | Idaho St | N | W 85–78 | −5.5 | W+1.5 | 141.0 | O163 | 115.6 | 106.1 | 73.5 |
| Mar 2 | Weber St | H | W 84–60 | −5.0 | W+19.0 | 144.5 | U144 | 121.8 | 87.0 | 68.9 |
| Feb 28 | Montana | A | L 68–74 | −1.0 | L−7.0 | 140.0 | O142 | 95.0 | 103.4 | 71.5 |
| Feb 26 | Montana St | A | L 69–84 | +1.5 | L−13.5 | 140.5 | O153 | 98.0 | 119.3 | 70.4 |
| Feb 21 | E Washington | H | L 55–67 | −6.0 | L−18.0 | 146.5 | U122 | 83.0 | 101.1 | 66.3 |
| Feb 19 | Idaho | H | W 77–67 | −3.5 | W+6.5 | 145.0 | U144 | 112.3 | 97.7 | 68.6 |
| Feb 14 | N Colorado | A | L 65–77 | +3.5 | L−8.5 | 149.5 | U142 | 94.1 | 111.5 | 69.1 |
| Feb 12 | N Arizona | A | W 77–68 | −7.5 | W+1.5 | 135.5 | O145 | 121.8 | 107.6 | 63.2 |
| Feb 7 | Sacramento St | A | W 74–73 | −4.0 | L−3.0 | 150.5 | U147 | 108.3 | 106.9 | 68.3 |
S Illinois
Against the spread
Season
16-15
Home
5-8
Road
10-5
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +3.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
9-22
Home
4-9
Road
5-10
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −10.8
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | Drake | N | L 63–67 | −4.5 | L−8.5 | 138.0 | U130 | 97.8 | 104.0 | 64.4 |
| Mar 1 | Evansville | A | W 81–67 | −9.0 | W+5.0 | 139.5 | O148 | 126.8 | 104.9 | 63.9 |
| Feb 25 | Indiana St | H | W 66–55 | −8.0 | W+3.0 | 149.0 | U121 | 93.4 | 77.8 | 70.7 |
| Feb 21 | Northern Iowa | A | W 59–57 | +6.5 | W+8.5 | 134.5 | U116 | 96.2 | 92.9 | 61.3 |
| Feb 18 | Drake | A | W 66–61 | −1.5 | W+3.5 | 150.0 | U127 | 93.5 | 86.4 | 70.6 |
| Feb 15 | Bradley | H | L 60–70 | −2.5 | L−12.5 | 147.0 | U130 | 86.8 | 101.2 | 69.2 |
| Feb 12 | Evansville | H | W 86–60 | −12.0 | W+14.0 | 142.5 | O146 | 126.4 | 88.2 | 68.1 |
| Feb 9 | Indiana St | A | W 80–65 | −1.5 | W+13.5 | 147.5 | U145 | 107.2 | 87.1 | 74.7 |
| Feb 6 | Murray St | H | L 81–91 | +1.0 | L−9.0 | 158.0 | O172 | 110.8 | 124.4 | 73.1 |
| Feb 3 | Illinois St | A | W 54–50 | +9.0 | W+13.0 | 141.5 | U104 | 79.5 | 73.6 | 67.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homePortland StS Illinois
Efficiency
105.4
105.5
104.1
102.2
68.6
69.4
—
—
Shooting
50.6%
49.2%
51.5%
52.2%
32.6%
27.8%
71.0%
68.3%
37.1%
31.3%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
17.0%
18.0%
18.5%
30.0%
30.9%
26.4%
27.3%
9.5%
9.7%
7.4%
8.5%
Style
34.4%
29.2%
48.2%
52.3%
12.5%
15.8%
51.2%
48.6%
28.6%
33.2%
Roster
3.32
2.83
6'6"
6'5.2"
—
84.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputPortland St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Portland St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
S Illinois
Returning minutes: 84.8%Returning production: 87.9%
Lost
- Drew Steffe 30.8 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Added
- Daniel Pauliukonis no D1 minutes last season
- Luke Walsh no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.