CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceClune Arena, Colorado Springs, CO

Brown

Efficiency #275

2025-26: 9-18 · 3-11 conf

Air Force

Efficiency #360

2025-26: 3-29 · 0-21 conf

Sat, Nov 28 · 3:00 PM ET

70.0

win 61%

Projected

66.9

win 39%

No line posted yet.

Model: BRWN −3.2 · total 136.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Air Force 67.6, Brown 67.9 → 67.2 possessions

−2.5

Air Force offense vs Brown defense

−7.9

Brown offense vs Air Force defense

−0.9

Projected total

136.9

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Air Force offense vs Brown defense

−7.9

Brown offense vs Air Force defense

+0.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Brown by 3.2

3.2

Brown side ◂▸ Air Force side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −3.1 against −3.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Air Force.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Air Force is the faster team (67.4, #227 of 365) and Brown the slower (66.7, #260). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

136.9

model

Projected team totals

70.0 / 66.9

Brown / Air Force

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.9#220

Brown

67.6#242

Air Force

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageAir Force

Where Air Force struggles: ball control

Air Force turns it over on 21.9% of possessions (#361); Brown forces turnovers on 18.7% of opponent possessions (#62). Expect about 20.9%, 4.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.1 points per 100 possessions.

GlassAir Force

Air Force gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 24.0% is worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions against Air Force's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Air Force, Brown, Air Force's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Brown at about 36.5% of its shots from three, Air Force about 43.6%.

AdvantageBrown

Where Brown scores: shooting

Brown shoots an effective 48.6% (#299); Air Force allows 56.4% (#350). Expect about 52.4%, 1.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions.

ClashAir Force

Style clash: paint scoring

Air Force scores 46.5% of its points in the paint; Brown protects the paint (38.4% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).

Brown has the ball

OffenseAir Force allowsvs D1 avg

48.6% #299

56.4% #350

+1.5 pt/100

19.5% #337

15.1% #281

-0.6 pt/100

29.0% #236

31.3% #215

-0.4 pt/100

28.1% #342

36.6% #227

-0.3 pt/100

68.4% #316

—

-0.4 pt/100

Brown net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.0 pts/100

Air Force has the ball

OffenseBrown allowsvs D1 avg

48.9% #292

51.3% #176

-1.9 pt/100

21.9% #361

18.7% #62

-5.1 pt/100

21.4% #360

30.0% #164

-3.9 pt/100

35.1% #174

37.6% #253

+0.2 pt/100

64.1% #364

—

-0.7 pt/100

Air Force net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -11.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Brownoffense vsAir Forcedefense

Share of shots by zone

Brown shoots

44.3

4.7

14.9

36.1

Air Force allows

38.1

6.5

16.8

38.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.9%#276	62.7%#319	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.5%#90	45.5%#309	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.7%#297	42.1%#309	38.0%
Three	30.3%#338	37.6%#352	33.7%

Air Forceoffense vsBrowndefense

Share of shots by zone

Air Force shoots

38.6

7.1

12.7

41.6

Brown allows

37.3

2.8

16.3

43.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.3%#152	55.7%#77	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	29.5%#351	40.5%#200	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.9%#314	45.8%#355	38.0%
Three	30.6%#332	33.5%#157	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Brown

−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#308 of 365

Off reb %

29.0%

#236

Def reb %

70.0%

#164

Turnover %

19.5%

#337

Forced TO %

18.7%

#62

FT rate

28.1%

#342

FT allowed

37.6%

#253

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.5

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security−1.8

Forcing turnovers+1.4

Foul shots drawn−1.8

Foul shots allowed−0.6

Air Force

−8.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#363 of 365

Off reb %

21.4%

#360

Def reb %

68.7%

#215

Turnover %

21.9%

#361

Forced TO %

15.1%

#281

FT rate

35.1%

#174

FT allowed

36.6%

#227

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.9

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security−3.5

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Brown has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.1 (#308 of 365) to Air Force’s −8.0 (#363).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Brown2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Brown's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Jeremiah Jenkins	G	So	6'0"	27-27	30.1	8.2	3.9	5.2	2.8	44.6%	36.4%	3.7	75.5%	22.2%
5	Adrian Uchidiuno	G	Jr	6'2"	27-8	25.3	9.1	2.7	1.1	1.4	42.1%	26.2%	5.4	81.3%	27.4%
40	Landon Lewis	F	Sr	6'7"	21-21	30.8	16.6	7.2	1.9	2.3	56.3%	42.9%	0.7	56.5%	32.3%
45	N'famara Dabo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-25	23.3	7.2	5.7	1.0	0.8	63.6%	0.0%	0.0	56.3%	16.7%
12	Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson	G	Jr	6'4"	27-11	22.2	4.2	3.6	2.8	1.5	41.5%	22.6%	1.1	73.9%	16.6%
1	Isaiah Langham	G	Fr	6'5"	27-13	21.1	8.4	2.4	0.9	1.4	45.9%	18.8%	2.4	70.2%	28.2%
23	David Rochester	F	So	6'8"	22-7	22.0	6.2	3.4	1.6	1.1	44.2%	28.6%	1.3	72.5%	19.8%
14	Luke Paragon	G	Jr	6'4"	26-18	16.4	7.1	1.5	0.6	0.5	59.2%	39.0%	3.8	93.5%	21.8%
33	Charlie O'Sullivan	F	Fr	6'10"	20-0	11.5	4.6	2.1	0.9	0.5	60.4%	37.3%	2.5	71.4%	21.7%
30	Brady Loughlin	G	Fr	6'5"	12-1	18.2	6.5	2.0	0.7	0.9	59.2%	38.8%	4.1	70.0%	21.0%
6	Wyatt DeGraaf	F	So	6'10"	14-3	9.2	2.4	1.6	0.3	0.6	68.2%	—	0.0	42.9%	15.7%
32	Drew Kania	F	Sr	6'8"	8-1	5.4	1.6	1.0	0.1	0.3	30.8%	—	0.0	71.4%	24.9%
4	Jonah Drezner	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	5.6	2.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	61.1%	42.9%	1.4	—	19.4%
11	Jerrell Barron Jr.	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Air Force2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Air Force's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Kam Sanders	G	Fr	6'3"	32-32	29.9	12.5	4.2	3.8	2.3	45.3%	36.0%	3.6	73.0%	28.8%
24	Lucas Hobin	F	Fr	6'8"	32-25	29.0	11.4	2.0	0.6	1.3	47.5%	31.8%	6.9	83.3%	24.8%
30	Eli Robinson	F	So	6'6"	31-31	28.0	7.8	5.2	1.6	1.8	52.2%	35.9%	1.3	65.8%	19.2%
21	Ethan Greenberg	G	Fr	6'4"	32-29	26.9	6.6	2.3	1.0	1.1	49.2%	34.2%	4.8	65.2%	16.9%
51	Wesley Celichowski	C	Jr	7'0"	32-29	20.7	4.8	2.4	1.3	1.1	43.5%	16.4%	1.9	53.3%	18.2%
10	Caleb Walker	F	Jr	6'9"	24-6	21.6	10.4	5.0	0.8	2.0	66.9%	0.0%	0.0	46.4%	28.6%
2	A.J. Patterson	G	So	6'3"	29-0	14.3	2.2	1.9	1.8	1.7	42.7%	14.3%	0.2	60.7%	16.9%
32	Kolby Gilles	F	Jr	6'5"	32-5	12.8	3.2	1.7	0.6	1.6	47.0%	13.6%	0.7	57.1%	22.5%
15	Justin Hinds	G	Fr	6'5"	29-3	11.5	1.4	1.4	0.5	0.7	30.0%	16.1%	1.1	58.3%	14.4%
5	Riley Dering	F	Fr	6'9"	14-0	13.5	5.4	2.8	0.0	0.4	62.7%	66.7%	0.2	66.7%	20.0%
35	Kyle Marshall	G	So	6'4"	4-0	16.5	3.5	2.8	2.0	0.3	41.2%	0.0%	0.5	0.0%	17.2%
11	Brendan Martin	F	Fr	6'6"	12-0	5.4	1.8	0.4	0.2	0.2	52.4%	26.7%	1.3	0.0%	21.4%
0	Josh Gatete	F	Jr	6'9"	14-0	4.4	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.8	21.4%	25.0%	0.3	50.0%	18.0%
33	Sam Imade	F	Fr	6'7"	10-0	3.4	0.8	0.1	0.0	0.0	40.0%	50.0%	0.4	—	17.7%
7	Elliott Taite	G	So	6'4"	11-0	1.8	1.6	0.2	0.2	0.1	69.2%	57.1%	0.6	0.0%	42.2%
25	Chris Catchings	G	Fr	6'4"	5-0	2.0	0.0	0.4	0.8	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.4	—	24.2%
8	Keaton Frisch	F	Fr	6'6"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Brown2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Brown's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Jeremiah Jenkins	G	So	6'0"	27-27	30.1	8.2	3.9	5.2	2.8	44.6%	36.4%	3.7	75.5%	22.2%
5	Adrian Uchidiuno	G	Jr	6'2"	27-8	25.3	9.1	2.7	1.1	1.4	42.1%	26.2%	5.4	81.3%	27.4%
40	Landon Lewis	F	Sr	6'7"	21-21	30.8	16.6	7.2	1.9	2.3	56.3%	42.9%	0.7	56.5%	32.3%
45	N'famara Dabo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-25	23.3	7.2	5.7	1.0	0.8	63.6%	0.0%	0.0	56.3%	16.7%
12	Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson	G	Jr	6'4"	27-11	22.2	4.2	3.6	2.8	1.5	41.5%	22.6%	1.1	73.9%	16.6%
1	Isaiah Langham	G	Fr	6'5"	27-13	21.1	8.4	2.4	0.9	1.4	45.9%	18.8%	2.4	70.2%	28.2%
23	David Rochester	F	So	6'8"	22-7	22.0	6.2	3.4	1.6	1.1	44.2%	28.6%	1.3	72.5%	19.8%
14	Luke Paragon	G	Jr	6'4"	26-18	16.4	7.1	1.5	0.6	0.5	59.2%	39.0%	3.8	93.5%	21.8%
33	Charlie O'Sullivan	F	Fr	6'10"	20-0	11.5	4.6	2.1	0.9	0.5	60.4%	37.3%	2.5	71.4%	21.7%
30	Brady Loughlin	G	Fr	6'5"	12-1	18.2	6.5	2.0	0.7	0.9	59.2%	38.8%	4.1	70.0%	21.0%
6	Wyatt DeGraaf	F	So	6'10"	14-3	9.2	2.4	1.6	0.3	0.6	68.2%	—	0.0	42.9%	15.7%
32	Drew Kania	F	Sr	6'8"	8-1	5.4	1.6	1.0	0.1	0.3	30.8%	—	0.0	71.4%	24.9%
4	Jonah Drezner	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	5.6	2.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	61.1%	42.9%	1.4	—	19.4%
11	Jerrell Barron Jr.	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Brown

Against the spread

Season

13-12

Home

5-7

Road

8-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −3.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-13

Home

4-8

Road

8-5

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.3

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	PennAdjEM #162	H	L 61–82	−1.0	L−22.0	147.0	U143	84.9	114.2	71.8
Feb 28	CornellAdjEM #135	A	L 80–86	+9.5	W+3.5	157.5	O166	110.7	119.1	72.2
Feb 27	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	L 62–80	+5.5	L−12.5	140.0	O142	91.1	117.6	68.1
Feb 20	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 80–71	−3.0	W+6.0	130.0	O151	124.7	110.7	64.1
Feb 14	DartmouthAdjEM #254	A	W 79–76	+3.0	W+6.0	139.5	O155	110.6	106.4	71.5
Feb 13	HarvardAdjEM #133	A	L 53–56	+8.0	W+5.0	131.5	U109	85.7	90.6	61.8
Feb 6	YaleAdjEM #57	A	L 69–81	+15.0	W+3.0	139.0	O150	105.7	124.1	65.3
Jan 31	DartmouthAdjEM #254	H	L 70–77 OT	−2.0	L−9.0	143.0	O147	93.7	103.1	74.7
Jan 30	HarvardAdjEM #133	H	L 59–69	+1.5	L−8.5	133.0	U128	96.8	113.3	60.9
Jan 24	PrincetonAdjEM #251	A	L 53–63	+4.5	L−5.5	133.5	U116	83.1	98.7	63.8

Air Force

Against the spread

Season

10-20-2

Home

4-12-2

Road

6-6

Last 10

2-7-1

avg cover −4.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 10 as an underdog, 1 pushCovered 2 of 9 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

19-12-1

Home

13-5

Road

6-5-1

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +3.5

Under 2 straightOver in 7 of 10 as an underdogOver in 6 of 9 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	NevadaAdjEM #71	N	L 45–80	+19.0	L−16.0	141.0	U125	63.2	112.3	71.2
Mar 7	NevadaAdjEM #71	A	L 59–74	+25.5	W+10.5	145.0	U133	91.1	114.2	64.8
Mar 3	Grand CanyonAdjEM #65	H	L 60–86	+19.0	L−7.0	143.0	O146	87.4	125.3	68.7
Feb 28	WyomingAdjEM #98	A	L 62–66	+21.5	W+17.5	146.5	U128	95.0	101.1	65.3
Feb 24	San José StAdjEM #282	H	L 80–86	+6.0	P0.0	145.0	O166	120.8	129.8	66.2
Feb 21	UNLVAdjEM #124	H	L 66–91	+16.5	L−8.5	153.0	O157	95.7	132.0	69.0
Feb 17	New MexicoAdjEM #42	A	L 61–98	+28.0	L−9.0	148.5	O159	86.3	138.6	70.7
Feb 14	Fresno StAdjEM #169	A	L 63–93	+15.0	L−15.0	142.0	O156	86.4	127.5	72.9
Feb 10	Colorado StAdjEM #88	H	L 74–91	+16.5	L−0.5	137.5	O165	113.4	139.4	65.3
Feb 7	San Diego StAdjEM #53	H	L 54–88	+21.5	L−12.5	140.0	O142	77.0	125.4	70.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BrownAir Force

Efficiency

101.4

97.8

107.4

114.2

67.9

67.6

—

Shooting

48.6%

48.9%

50.4%

51.1%

30.3%

30.6%

68.4%

64.1%

28.1%

35.1%

Ball control & glass

19.5%

21.9%

18.7%

15.1%

29.0%

21.4%

30.0%

31.3%

11.3%

11.8%

9.4%

11.9%

Style

36.3%

41.8%

50.4%

46.5%

13.3%

10.5%

59.5%

55.9%

37.1%

32.1%

Roster

2.49

1.73

6'4.9"

6'6.2"

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Brown

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Brown's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Air Force

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Air Force's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.