CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceTempleton Center, Clinton, SC
Sacramento St
Efficiency #280
2025-26: 10-21 · 6-13 conf
@
Presbyterian
Efficiency #252
2025-26: 15-18 · 8-10 conf
Sat, Nov 28 · 2:00 PM ET
71.7
win 33%
Projected
76.8
win 67%
No line posted yet.
Model: PRES −5.1 · total 148.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Presbyterian 66.2, Sacramento St 71.1 → 69.0 possessions
+1.5
Presbyterian offense vs Sacramento St defense
0.0
Sacramento St offense vs Presbyterian defense
−1.2
Projected total
148.5
Axis starts at 147 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Presbyterian offense vs Sacramento St defense
0.0
Sacramento St offense vs Presbyterian defense
+1.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Presbyterian by 5.1
5.1
Sacramento St side ◂▸ Presbyterian side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +5.2 against +5.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Presbyterian.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Sacramento St is the faster team (72.3, #19 of 365) and Presbyterian the slower (66.1, #292). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
148.5
model
Projected team totals
71.7 / 76.8
Sacramento St / Presbyterian
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.1#14
Sacramento St
66.2#332
Presbyterian
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageSacramento St
Where Sacramento St struggles: shooting
Sacramento St shoots an effective 47.0% (#337); Presbyterian allows 51.2% (#170). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Presbyterian averages 66.1 possessions per 40, Sacramento St 72.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 69 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversSacramento St
Sacramento St protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.6% is worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions for Sacramento St's offense.
AdvantagePresbyterian
Where Presbyterian scores: shooting
Presbyterian shoots an effective 51.0% (#196); Sacramento St allows 55.0% (#331). Expect about 53.0%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.
GlassSacramento St
Sacramento St gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.9% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Sacramento St's offense.
TurnoversPresbyterian
Presbyterian turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.4% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Presbyterian's offense.
Sacramento St has the ball
OffensePresbyterian allowsvs D1 avg
47.0% #337
51.2% #170
-3.6 pt/100
14.1% #26
15.7% #233
+2.7 pt/100
25.2% #336
30.6% #188
-2.1 pt/100
41.2% #41
37.1% #241
+0.5 pt/100
78.1% #15
—
+0.5 pt/100
Sacramento St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.0 pts/100
Presbyterian has the ball
OffenseSacramento St allowsvs D1 avg
51.0% #196
55.0% #331
+2.5 pt/100
19.3% #332
17.1% #139
-2.1 pt/100
33.1% #86
33.4% #306
+2.0 pt/100
39.3% #71
36.2% #216
+0.3 pt/100
68.5% #312
—
-0.3 pt/100
Presbyterian net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersSacramento Stoffense vsPresbyteriandefense
Share of shots by zone
Sacramento St shoots
37.7
5.7
20.6
36.0
Presbyterian allows
42.0
6.2
15.8
36.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.7%#306 | 55.1%#61 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 34.1%#301 | 42.9%#247 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.5%#276 | 40.0%#243 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.9%#284 | 34.7%#235 | 33.7% |
Presbyterianoffense vsSacramento Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Presbyterian shoots
42.5
11.2
18.8
27.6
Sacramento St allows
42.1
5.7
8.2
44.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.6%#175 | 60.1%#230 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.6%#30 | 43.3%#256 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.8%#192 | 42.6%#322 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.6%#301 | 35.2%#257 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSacramento St
+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#141 of 365
Off reb %
25.2%
#336
Def reb %
66.6%
#306
Turnover %
14.1%
#26
Forced TO %
17.1%
#139
FT rate
41.2%
#41
FT allowed
36.2%
#216
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding−0.9
Ball security+1.9
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed−0.3
Presbyterian
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#225 of 365
Off reb %
33.1%
#86
Def reb %
69.4%
#188
Turnover %
19.3%
#332
Forced TO %
15.7%
#233
FT rate
39.3%
#71
FT allowed
37.1%
#241
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.9
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security−1.7
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Sacramento St has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.9 (#141 of 365) to Presbyterian’s −0.9 (#225).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Sacramento St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Sacramento St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Prophet Johnson | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-29 | 35.4 | 18.2 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 52.8% | 39.2% | 4.2 | 74.2% | 28.5% | |
| 32 | Mark Lavrenov | F | Fr | 6'8" | 31-21 | 26.0 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 46.9% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 82.4% | 20.9% | |
| 4 | Jahni Summers | G | Jr | 6'6" | 31-30 | 25.8 | 9.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 57.5% | 42.2% | 4.4 | 75.0% | 20.1% | |
| 1 | Mikey Williams | G | So | 6'3" | 21-21 | 35.0 | 17.1 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 40.1% | 26.5% | 4.0 | 83.0% | 31.2% | |
| 23 | Arman Madi | G | So | 6'6" | 30-5 | 21.9 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 50.9% | 28.6% | 2.6 | 73.2% | 18.1% | |
| 8 | Shaqir O'Neal | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-31 | 19.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 47.9% | 32.7% | 1.6 | 77.0% | 15.6% | |
| 5 | Jayden Teat | G | So | 6'2" | 29-1 | 14.6 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 43.6% | 34.7% | 3.5 | 82.8% | 27.1% | |
| 2 | Taj Glover | G | Fr | 6'3" | 29-6 | 13.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 41.9% | 23.1% | 1.3 | 75.0% | 19.9% | |
| 3 | Romari Robinson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 24-1 | 11.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 40.2% | 26.3% | 0.8 | 60.0% | 12.3% | |
| 0 | Brandon Gardner | F | So | 6'8" | 16-4 | 15.6 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 46.5% | 22.7% | 1.4 | 86.7% | 15.4% | |
| 9 | Jeremiah Cherry | F | Sr | 6'11" | 6-6 | 31.2 | 15.5 | 8.2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 48.7% | 12.5% | 1.3 | 69.2% | 32.2% | |
| 34 | Jeremiah Nyarko | F | Sr | 6'9" | 5-0 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | — | 15.0% | |
| 13 | Isaiah Bronson | G | Fr | 6'2" | 6-0 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 12.0% | |
| 7 | Zach Anderson | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Presbyterian2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Presbyterian's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Carl Parrish | G | Jr | 6'3" | 33-33 | 33.5 | 14.4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 51.3% | 40.2% | 5.7 | 84.5% | 26.3% | |
| 15 | Jonah Pierce | F | Sr | 6'10" | 33-33 | 32.6 | 16.0 | 9.6 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 55.2% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 57.3% | 31.5% | |
| 7 | Triston Wilson | G | So | 6'6" | 33-33 | 30.7 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 46.4% | 23.7% | 2.8 | 82.4% | 25.3% | |
| 42 | Jaylen Peterson | F | Jr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 30.0 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 61.4% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 54.9% | 20.8% | |
| 4 | Josh Pickett | G | So | 6'5" | 33-27 | 27.0 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 47.6% | 34.7% | 3.7 | 68.9% | 16.5% | |
| 0 | Iverson King | G | So | 6'6" | 21-2 | 19.3 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 41.5% | 22.2% | 2.1 | 68.0% | 19.3% | |
| 6 | Chidi Chiakwelu | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-0 | 11.1 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 68.2% | — | 0.0 | 43.8% | 17.0% | |
| 2 | Khalon Hudson | G | So | 6'6" | 32-0 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 53.9% | 20.8% | 0.8 | 90.3% | 19.3% | |
| 3 | JD Bowden | G | Fr | 6'1" | 26-0 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 37.0% | 28.0% | 1.0 | 87.0% | 20.5% | |
| 11 | Erik Taylor | G | So | 6'1" | 6-4 | 20.8 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 51.9% | 29.4% | 2.8 | 76.9% | 19.0% | |
| 10 | Amare Anderson | G | Fr | 6'1" | 20-0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 14.3% | 0.3 | 66.7% | 17.9% | |
| 1 | Luke Allison | G | So | 6'0" | 7-0 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 0.6 | — | 14.3% | |
| 13 | Augustine Ayelyine | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Sacramento St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Sacramento St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Prophet Johnson | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-29 | 35.4 | 18.2 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 52.8% | 39.2% | 4.2 | 74.2% | 28.5% | |
| 32 | Mark Lavrenov | F | Fr | 6'8" | 31-21 | 26.0 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 46.9% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 82.4% | 20.9% | |
| 4 | Jahni Summers | G | Jr | 6'6" | 31-30 | 25.8 | 9.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 57.5% | 42.2% | 4.4 | 75.0% | 20.1% | |
| 1 | Mikey Williams | G | So | 6'3" | 21-21 | 35.0 | 17.1 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 40.1% | 26.5% | 4.0 | 83.0% | 31.2% | |
| 23 | Arman Madi | G | So | 6'6" | 30-5 | 21.9 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 50.9% | 28.6% | 2.6 | 73.2% | 18.1% | |
| 8 | Shaqir O'Neal | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-31 | 19.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 47.9% | 32.7% | 1.6 | 77.0% | 15.6% | |
| 5 | Jayden Teat | G | So | 6'2" | 29-1 | 14.6 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 43.6% | 34.7% | 3.5 | 82.8% | 27.1% | |
| 2 | Taj Glover | G | Fr | 6'3" | 29-6 | 13.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 41.9% | 23.1% | 1.3 | 75.0% | 19.9% | |
| 3 | Romari Robinson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 24-1 | 11.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 40.2% | 26.3% | 0.8 | 60.0% | 12.3% | |
| 0 | Brandon Gardner | F | So | 6'8" | 16-4 | 15.6 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 46.5% | 22.7% | 1.4 | 86.7% | 15.4% | |
| 9 | Jeremiah Cherry | F | Sr | 6'11" | 6-6 | 31.2 | 15.5 | 8.2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 48.7% | 12.5% | 1.3 | 69.2% | 32.2% | |
| 34 | Jeremiah Nyarko | F | Sr | 6'9" | 5-0 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | — | 15.0% | |
| 13 | Isaiah Bronson | G | Fr | 6'2" | 6-0 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 12.0% | |
| 7 | Zach Anderson | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Sacramento St
Against the spread
Season
12-15-1
Home
8-3
Road
4-11-1
Last 10
3-6-1
avg cover −1.1
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 9 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
14-14
Home
7-4
Road
7-9
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −1.1
Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Idaho | N | L 45–68 | +7.0 | L−16.0 | 158.5 | U113 | 65.0 | 98.2 | 69.3 |
| Mar 2 | Idaho St | H | W 83–65 | +1.0 | W+19.0 | 160.5 | U148 | 118.7 | 92.9 | 69.9 |
| Feb 28 | Montana St | A | L 61–82 | +7.0 | L−14.0 | 158.5 | U143 | 91.9 | 123.5 | 66.4 |
| Feb 26 | Montana | A | L 73–81 | +8.0 | P0.0 | 161.5 | U154 | 101.4 | 112.5 | 72.0 |
| Feb 21 | Idaho | H | L 80–86 | +4.0 | L−2.0 | 165.0 | O166 | 109.2 | 117.4 | 73.3 |
| Feb 19 | E Washington | H | L 94–102 | +3.0 | L−5.0 | 161.5 | O196 | 129.2 | 140.2 | 72.8 |
| Feb 14 | N Arizona | A | L 74–79 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 155.0 | U153 | 104.2 | 111.2 | 71.0 |
| Feb 12 | N Colorado | A | L 79–95 | +10.5 | L−5.5 | 165.0 | O174 | 99.4 | 119.6 | 79.4 |
| Feb 7 | Portland St | H | L 73–74 | +4.0 | W+3.0 | 150.5 | U147 | 106.9 | 108.3 | 68.3 |
| Feb 2 | Weber St | H | W 104–90 | −1.5 | W+12.5 | 162.5 | O194 | 133.3 | 115.3 | 78.0 |
Presbyterian
Against the spread
Season
17-13
Home
7-4
Road
7-9
Last 10
6-4
avg cover −0.8
Covered 4 straightCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
7-4
Road
8-8
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +2.0
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Winthrop | N | L 71–73 | +6.5 | W+4.5 | 145.0 | U144 | 103.4 | 106.4 | 68.6 |
| Mar 6 | Radford | N | W 91–85 OT | +2.0 | W+8.0 | 146.5 | O176 | 114.0 | 106.4 | 79.8 |
| Feb 28 | Winthrop | A | L 70–74 | +9.0 | W+5.0 | 150.5 | U144 | 99.6 | 105.3 | 70.3 |
| Feb 26 | High Point | H | L 73–79 | +11.5 | W+5.5 | 151.5 | O152 | 106.8 | 115.6 | 68.3 |
| Feb 21 | SC Upstate | A | L 74–76 | −1.0 | L−3.0 | 141.5 | O150 | 114.9 | 118.0 | 64.4 |
| Feb 19 | Longwood | H | W 72–65 | −2.5 | W+4.5 | 140.0 | U137 | 108.3 | 97.8 | 66.5 |
| Feb 14 | UNC Asheville | A | W 58–57 | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 136.5 | U115 | 92.1 | 90.5 | 63.0 |
| Feb 12 | Charleston So | A | L 67–84 | +1.5 | L−15.5 | 146.5 | O151 | 99.3 | 124.5 | 67.5 |
| Feb 7 | Gardner-Webb | H | W 68–62 | −17.5 | L−11.5 | 145.5 | U130 | 107.4 | 97.9 | 63.3 |
| Jan 31 | Radford | H | L 84–93 2OT | −1.5 | L−10.5 | 152.0 | O177 | 102.0 | 112.9 | 82.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSacramento StPresbyterian
Efficiency
105.8
105.0
111.9
109.5
71.1
66.2
—
—
Shooting
47.0%
51.0%
46.6%
52.3%
31.9%
31.6%
78.1%
68.5%
41.2%
39.3%
Ball control & glass
14.1%
19.3%
17.1%
15.7%
25.2%
33.1%
33.4%
30.6%
9.2%
10.2%
8.5%
8.4%
Style
35.6%
28.0%
40.4%
52.6%
16.8%
11.5%
48.9%
49.1%
29.5%
23.3%
Roster
2.49
2.53
6'5.3"
6'6.1"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSacramento St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Sacramento St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Presbyterian
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Presbyterian's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, Nov 16 | 2025-26 | Presbyterian 62 – 64 Sacramento St |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.