CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceUCCU Center, Orem, UT

San José St

Efficiency #282

2025-26: 9-24 · 4-18 conf

Utah Valley

Efficiency #75

2025-26: 25-9 · 15-5 conf

Sat, Nov 28 · 4:00 PM ET

68.9

win 14%

Projected

81.3

win 86%

No line posted yet.

Model: UVU −12.3 · total 150.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Utah Valley 69.1, San José St 66.7 → 67.5 possessions

−1.8

Utah Valley offense vs San José St defense

+6.1

San José St offense vs Utah Valley defense

−2.4

Projected total

150.2

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Utah Valley offense vs San José St defense

+6.1

San José St offense vs Utah Valley defense

+2.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Utah Valley by 12.3

12.3

San José St side ◂▸ Utah Valley side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.1 against a projected 150.2, and the margin steps add to +12.4 against +12.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Utah Valley.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Utah Valley is the faster team (69.4, #122 of 365) and San José St the slower (65.7, #305). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.2

model

Projected team totals

68.9 / 81.3

San José St / Utah Valley

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.7#306

San José St

69.1#116

Utah Valley

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageUtah Valley

Where Utah Valley scores: shooting

Utah Valley shoots an effective 54.9% (#38); San José St allows 57.1% (#359). Expect about 56.4%, 5.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +7.3 points per 100 possessions.

GlassUtah Valley

Utah Valley owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 36.4% is worth roughly +3.7 points per 100 possessions for Utah Valley's offense.

ClashUtah Valley

Style match: ball movement

Utah Valley assists on 62.1% of its made baskets; San José St allows assists on 57.7% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 62.1% — both habits push the same way.

TurnoversUtah Valley

Utah Valley turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 19.1% is worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions against Utah Valley's offense.

AdvantageSan José St

Where San José St struggles: shooting

San José St shoots an effective 49.7% (#255); Utah Valley allows 49.4% (#78). Expect about 49.4%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversSan José St

San José St turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.7% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against San José St's offense.

San José St has the ball

OffenseUtah Valley allowsvs D1 avg

49.7% #255

49.4% #78

-2.7 pt/100

15.1% #77

21.3% #7

-2.4 pt/100

29.3% #225

31.4% #221

-0.2 pt/100

33.4% #225

39.2% #291

+0.2 pt/100

73.8% #140

—

+0.1 pt/100

San José St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.0 pts/100

Utah Valley has the ball

OffenseSan José St allowsvs D1 avg

54.9% #38

57.1% #359

+7.3 pt/100

20.1% #350

17.4% #122

-2.9 pt/100

34.8% #51

36.5% #354

+3.7 pt/100

38.2% #98

35.3% #189

+0.2 pt/100

68.6% #308

—

-0.3 pt/100

Utah Valley net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

San José Stoffense vsUtah Valleydefense

Share of shots by zone

San José St shoots

30.9

8.5

22.5

38.1

Utah Valley allows

42.9

7.3

16.6

33.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.9%#278	52.1%#16	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.6%#321	39.5%#171	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.2%#76	38.8%#197	38.0%
Three	35.3%#97	35.2%#260	33.7%

Utah Valleyoffense vsSan José Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Utah Valley shoots

47.2

8.8

11.3

32.6

San José St allows

43.3

7.2

10.9

38.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.7%#43	66.2%#360	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.2%#217	39.7%#181	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.6%#247	42.4%#314	38.0%
Three	34.0%#170	36.0%#305	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

San José St

−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#235 of 365

Off reb %

29.3%

#225

Def reb %

63.5%

#354

Turnover %

15.1%

#77

Forced TO %

17.4%

#122

FT rate

33.4%

#225

FT allowed

35.3%

#189

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.3

Defensive rebounding−1.9

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+0.5

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed0.0

Utah Valley

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#107 of 365

Off reb %

34.8%

#51

Def reb %

68.6%

#221

Turnover %

20.1%

#350

Forced TO %

21.3%

FT rate

38.2%

#98

FT allowed

39.2%

#291

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.4

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security−2.3

Forcing turnovers+3.2

Foul shots drawn+0.8

Foul shots allowed−1.0

Utah Valley has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#107 of 365) to San José St’s −1.1 (#235).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

San José St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Melvin Bell Jr.	G	Fr	6'4"	33-24	33.4	8.7	4.1	0.5	1.2	44.9%	27.0%	1.9	62.4%	18.0%
13	Jermaine Washington	G	So	6'1"	25-24	34.7	11.5	1.8	2.9	1.7	51.0%	36.7%	5.9	62.3%	22.0%
1	Adrian Myers	F	So	6'6"	28-22	28.5	11.1	4.9	1.0	1.0	52.1%	37.2%	4.6	72.7%	23.9%
99	Sadraque NgaNga	F	Sr	6'10"	32-26	24.3	7.8	4.1	0.6	1.4	48.8%	35.8%	3.0	82.6%	22.1%
7	Pasha Goodarzi	G	So	6'3"	19-10	26.1	8.2	1.9	0.9	0.8	52.9%	40.7%	4.8	93.1%	18.9%
32	Yaphet Moundi	F	Sr	6'8"	13-11	26.7	12.5	7.6	1.4	1.7	52.6%	20.0%	0.4	73.8%	27.1%
11	Ben Roseborough	G	Fr	6'4"	11-9	27.6	12.0	1.6	1.1	0.8	50.0%	41.1%	5.1	82.1%	26.3%
24	Douglas Langford	F	Fr	6'7"	27-5	10.9	1.6	2.4	0.3	0.6	39.5%	0.0%	0.1	57.1%	13.6%
33	Marcus Overstreet	F	Jr	6'9"	26-4	10.5	2.8	3.2	0.3	0.5	54.2%	—	0.0	52.6%	18.1%
21	Japhet Moupadele	F	Fr	6'8"	23-1	11.6	2.7	1.6	0.7	0.7	44.6%	23.5%	1.5	45.5%	19.5%
2	JaVaughn Hannah	G	Sr	6'3"	2-2	22.0	7.5	1.0	0.5	1.5	63.6%	40.0%	2.5	33.3%	19.9%
14	Eren Karakaya	C	Fr	6'10"	3-0	7.7	2.3	1.7	0.0	0.3	60.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	17.6%
17	Jaden Goodall	F	Fr	6'6"	3-0	4.7	1.7	0.7	0.3	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	50.0%	20.7%
20	Christian Wise	F	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Damase Coly	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Utah Valley2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Trevan Leonhardt	G	Jr	6'4"	34-34	34.5	11.9	5.4	6.0	2.7	57.7%	36.8%	3.4	75.6%	20.9%
2	Jackson Holcombe	G	So	6'7"	34-34	30.1	16.0	7.0	3.6	2.4	53.8%	16.2%	1.1	68.2%	31.0%
9	Braden Housley	G	So	6'4"	28-19	26.1	5.3	2.7	2.7	1.8	47.4%	29.4%	1.8	57.8%	15.5%
1	Isaac Davis	F	So	6'8"	34-34	19.1	10.9	3.7	1.3	1.8	63.8%	33.3%	0.6	67.0%	30.8%
7	Noah Taitz	G	Sr	6'4"	30-15	19.6	5.0	1.7	1.2	0.9	47.7%	34.5%	2.9	71.4%	16.8%
8	Hayden Welling	F	Sr	6'9"	34-1	16.5	7.5	3.0	0.9	1.1	45.8%	20.3%	2.0	68.5%	30.3%
4	Sherman Weatherspoon IV	G	Jr	6'3"	32-5	16.1	5.0	1.9	0.5	0.7	55.4%	38.0%	3.1	72.7%	18.2%
23	Isaac Hawkins	F	Jr	6'10"	34-0	14.0	7.2	3.7	0.6	0.7	67.2%	27.3%	0.3	76.1%	24.2%
11	Tyler Weaver	F	Fr	6'7"	20-0	8.2	3.0	1.6	0.6	0.6	49.0%	34.5%	1.4	75.0%	23.9%
12	Tyler Medaris	F	Fr	6'7"	15-0	5.4	1.7	2.1	0.4	0.2	52.9%	0.0%	0.1	57.1%	18.2%
99	Joul Karram	C	So	6'11"	9-0	4.7	1.9	1.8	0.3	0.2	61.5%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	20.5%
5	AJ Riggs	G	So	6'3"	11-0	3.4	1.4	0.4	0.4	0.2	57.7%	33.3%	0.8	—	21.8%
24	AJ Dixon	G	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Jaxson Roberts	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

San José St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Melvin Bell Jr.	G	Fr	6'4"	33-24	33.4	8.7	4.1	0.5	1.2	44.9%	27.0%	1.9	62.4%	18.0%
13	Jermaine Washington	G	So	6'1"	25-24	34.7	11.5	1.8	2.9	1.7	51.0%	36.7%	5.9	62.3%	22.0%
1	Adrian Myers	F	So	6'6"	28-22	28.5	11.1	4.9	1.0	1.0	52.1%	37.2%	4.6	72.7%	23.9%
99	Sadraque NgaNga	F	Sr	6'10"	32-26	24.3	7.8	4.1	0.6	1.4	48.8%	35.8%	3.0	82.6%	22.1%
7	Pasha Goodarzi	G	So	6'3"	19-10	26.1	8.2	1.9	0.9	0.8	52.9%	40.7%	4.8	93.1%	18.9%
32	Yaphet Moundi	F	Sr	6'8"	13-11	26.7	12.5	7.6	1.4	1.7	52.6%	20.0%	0.4	73.8%	27.1%
11	Ben Roseborough	G	Fr	6'4"	11-9	27.6	12.0	1.6	1.1	0.8	50.0%	41.1%	5.1	82.1%	26.3%
24	Douglas Langford	F	Fr	6'7"	27-5	10.9	1.6	2.4	0.3	0.6	39.5%	0.0%	0.1	57.1%	13.6%
33	Marcus Overstreet	F	Jr	6'9"	26-4	10.5	2.8	3.2	0.3	0.5	54.2%	—	0.0	52.6%	18.1%
21	Japhet Moupadele	F	Fr	6'8"	23-1	11.6	2.7	1.6	0.7	0.7	44.6%	23.5%	1.5	45.5%	19.5%
2	JaVaughn Hannah	G	Sr	6'3"	2-2	22.0	7.5	1.0	0.5	1.5	63.6%	40.0%	2.5	33.3%	19.9%
14	Eren Karakaya	C	Fr	6'10"	3-0	7.7	2.3	1.7	0.0	0.3	60.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	17.6%
17	Jaden Goodall	F	Fr	6'6"	3-0	4.7	1.7	0.7	0.3	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	50.0%	20.7%
20	Christian Wise	F	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Damase Coly	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

San José St

Against the spread

Season

15-16-1

Home

6-9

Road

7-5-1

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover +4.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 9 as an underdogCovered 4 of 6 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

21-10-1

Home

11-4

Road

8-4-1

Last 10

10-0

avg vs total +14.4

Over 10 straightOver in 9 of 9 as an underdogOver in 6 of 6 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	New MexicoAdjEM #42	N	L 77–93	+15.5	L−0.5	154.5	O170	111.9	135.2	68.8
Mar 11	Boise StAdjEM #63	N	W 84–74	+14.5	W+24.5	146.0	O158	120.3	106.0	69.8
Mar 7	WyomingAdjEM #98	H	L 78–88	+5.5	L−4.5	148.0	O166	129.4	146.0	60.3
Mar 3	Fresno StAdjEM #169	A	L 68–82	+7.5	L−6.5	149.5	O150	99.7	120.2	68.2
Feb 28	Colorado StAdjEM #88	H	L 73–85	+8.0	L−4.0	145.5	O158	114.7	133.6	63.6
Feb 24	Air ForceAdjEM #360	A	W 86–80	−6.0	P0.0	145.0	O166	129.8	120.8	66.2
Feb 21	Boise StAdjEM #63	A	L 69–84	+17.5	W+2.5	146.0	O153	105.0	127.9	65.7
Feb 17	NevadaAdjEM #71	H	W 87–71	+11.0	W+27.0	141.5	O158	122.3	99.8	71.1
Feb 14	Grand CanyonAdjEM #65	H	L 79–94	+11.5	L−3.5	139.0	O173	121.6	144.7	65.0
Feb 10	UNLVAdjEM #124	A	L 75–82	+13.0	W+6.0	150.0	O157	110.7	121.1	67.7

Utah Valley

Against the spread

Season

13-18

Home

6-7

Road

4-9

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −4.0

Missed the spread 7 straightCovered 2 of 10 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-14

Home

9-4

Road

8-5

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +4.2

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 10 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 18	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	H	L 78–79	−1.5	L−2.5	153.0	O157	113.1	114.5	69.0
Mar 14	CA BaptistAdjEM #102	N	L 61–63	−2.5	L−4.5	138.5	U124	92.0	95.0	66.3
Mar 13	UT ArlingtonAdjEM #171	N	W 67–65	−8.0	L−6.0	136.0	U132	107.4	104.2	62.4
Mar 7	Utah TechAdjEM #216	A	W 104–101 2OT	−9.0	L−6.0	148.0	O205	122.1	118.6	85.2
Mar 5	Southern UtahAdjEM #293	A	W 92–88	−10.0	L−6.0	150.0	O180	129.1	123.5	71.3
Feb 28	Abilene ChrstnAdjEM #263	H	W 74–67	−15.0	L−8.0	140.5	O141	106.7	96.6	69.3
Feb 26	Tarleton StAdjEM #238	H	W 79–72	−17.0	L−10.0	141.5	O151	113.8	103.7	69.4
Feb 21	UT ArlingtonAdjEM #171	A	W 66–54	−5.5	W+6.5	137.5	U120	99.0	81.0	66.6
Feb 19	CA BaptistAdjEM #102	H	W 65–46	−8.5	W+10.5	143.0	U111	99.3	70.3	65.4
Feb 12	Utah TechAdjEM #216	A	L 77–81	−10.0	L−14.0	149.0	O158	113.9	119.8	67.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

San José StUtah Valley

Efficiency

109.0

110.9

115.1

104.5

66.7

69.1

—

Shooting

49.7%

54.9%

47.6%

56.9%

35.3%

34.0%

73.8%

68.6%

33.4%

38.2%

Ball control & glass

15.1%

20.1%

17.4%

21.3%

29.3%

34.8%

36.5%

31.4%

8.2%

12.1%

8.3%

8.1%

Style

38.3%

32.9%

38.6%

53.2%

10.6%

15.2%

42.2%

62.1%

22.5%

31.0%

Roster

2.11

2.70

6'5.4"

6'6"

84.6%

87.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

San José St

Returning minutes: 84.6%Returning production: 73.6%

Lost

Colby Garland 30.9 mpg, 17.8 ppg · transferred to Georgia Tech

Added

Damase Coly no D1 minutes last season
Christian Wise no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Utah Valley

Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 88.1%

Lost

Tyler Hendricks 24.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma

Added

AJ Dixon no D1 minutes last season
Jaxson Roberts no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.