CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLiberty Arena (IN), Evansville, IN
Ball State
Efficiency #295
2025-26: 12-19 · 7-11 conf
@
S Indiana
Efficiency #333
2025-26: 7-23 · 4-16 conf
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
66.8
win 45%
Projected
68.3
win 55%
No line posted yet.
Model: USI −1.5 · total 135.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: S Indiana 68.6, Ball State 65.9 → 66.1 possessions
−4.7
S Indiana offense vs Ball State defense
−5.3
Ball State offense vs S Indiana defense
−3.0
Projected total
135.1
Axis starts at 125 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
S Indiana offense vs Ball State defense
−5.3
Ball State offense vs S Indiana defense
+3.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
S Indiana by 1.5
1.5
Ball State side ◂▸ S Indiana side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 135.2 against a projected 135.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help S Indiana.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, S Indiana is the faster team (68.4, #175 of 365) and Ball State the slower (65.3, #321). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
135.1
model
Projected team totals
66.8 / 68.3
Ball State / S Indiana
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.9#344
Ball State
68.6#162
S Indiana

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageS Indiana
Where S Indiana struggles: shooting
S Indiana shoots an effective 43.7% (#363); Ball State allows 52.7% (#253). Expect about 47.6%, 3.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageBall State
Where Ball State struggles: shooting
Ball State shoots an effective 47.0% (#336); S Indiana allows 49.4% (#80). Expect about 47.9%, 3.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.9 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (S Indiana) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Ball State at about 31.4% of its shots from three, S Indiana about 40.8%.
TurnoversS Indiana
S Indiana turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against S Indiana's offense.
Ball State has the ball
OffenseS Indiana allowsvs D1 avg
47.0% #336
49.4% #80
-4.9 pt/100
16.2% #152
16.4% #190
+0.6 pt/100
27.1% #290
33.8% #315
-0.4 pt/100
31.6% #263
36.2% #212
-0.1 pt/100
71.0% #240
—
-0.1 pt/100
Ball State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.8 pts/100
S Indiana has the ball
OffenseBall State allowsvs D1 avg
43.7% #363
52.7% #253
-5.2 pt/100
17.2% #216
18.7% #63
-1.8 pt/100
31.4% #145
31.0% #204
+0.6 pt/100
37.2% #123
32.1% #106
-0.1 pt/100
66.6% #347
—
-0.5 pt/100
S Indiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Ball Stateoffense vsS Indianadefense
Share of shots by zone
Ball State shoots
S Indiana allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim52.7%#34456.3%#9258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.2%#21833.3%#3139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)30.6%#35035.6%#9438.0%
Three31.4%#31234.1%#19333.7%
S Indianaoffense vsBall Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
S Indiana shoots
Ball State allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim49.4%#36361.4%#28058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)31.0%#34242.3%#23539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)29.8%#35537.9%#15838.0%
Three29.9%#34534.8%#23933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Ball State
+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#162 of 365
Off reb %
27.1%
#290
Def reb %
69.0%
#204
Turnover %
16.2%
#152
Forced TO %
18.7%
#63
FT rate
31.6%
#263
FT allowed
32.1%
#106
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+0.8
S Indiana
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#217 of 365
Off reb %
31.4%
#145
Def reb %
66.2%
#315
Turnover %
17.2%
#216
Forced TO %
16.4%
#190
FT rate
37.2%
#123
FT allowed
36.2%
#212
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.2

Ball State has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.5 (#162 of 365) to S Indiana’s −0.8 (#217).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Ball State2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
24Mason JonesFSr6'7"31-3030.94.24.41.70.848.0%36.9%2.140.9%10.1%
0Sean Blakeat VermontGJr6'2"34-2728.69.94.23.92.450.4%35.2%1.669.3%25.0%
55Zaon Collinsat Fresno StGSr6'1"26-2430.711.63.44.62.849.8%30.9%2.171.3%25.6%
2Javion Guy-Kingat C ArkansasGSr6'6"32-2022.49.84.21.81.352.0%34.1%4.269.7%26.1%
5K'Jei Parkerat UMassGSr6'2"33-620.810.71.92.01.456.7%40.8%4.890.0%27.3%
11Babatunde Durodolaat TempleFJr6'8"32-919.24.83.51.60.949.5%0.0%0.175.8%16.8%
1Trey Lewisat W MichiganGSr6'6"31-1117.67.72.60.50.855.2%38.5%4.474.3%24.5%
7Jaden Smithat Saint Joseph'sCJr6'11"36-19.12.81.80.30.747.1%18.2%0.369.4%21.1%
20Joey HartGSr6'5"4-319.39.01.81.00.363.6%40.0%2.5100.0%20.5%
4Jazz Henderson Jr.at Texas TechGJr5'11"12-04.30.90.50.30.341.7%50.0%0.350.0%19.3%
3Aaron Fineat PurdueGJr6'2"9-02.41.20.00.30.250.0%—0.050.0%34.4%
25Kai McgrewFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
6Kamden McGilvearyGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
33Kijani WrightFSr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Zaon Collins (from Fresno St), Babatunde Durodola (from Temple), Aaron Fine (from Purdue), Javion Guy-King (from C Arkansas), Jazz Henderson Jr. (from Texas Tech), Trey Lewis (from W Michigan), K'Jei Parker (from UMass), Jaden Smith (from Saint Joseph's), Sean Blake (from Vermont)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Ball StateS Indiana
Efficiency
101.8
100.1
108.8
110.6
65.9
68.6
—
—
Shooting
47.0%
43.7%
47.0%
43.0%
31.4%
29.9%
71.0%
66.6%
31.6%
37.2%
Ball control & glass
16.2%
17.2%
18.7%
16.4%
27.1%
31.4%
31.0%
33.8%
8.1%
9.5%
10.9%
14.1%
Style
39.4%
39.7%
45.4%
38.0%
10.8%
14.7%
53.6%
43.0%
34.8%
35.3%
Roster
3.66
3.41
6'4.7"
6'4.7"
16.6%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Ball State
Returning minutes: 16.6%Returning production: 13.1%
Lost
  • Armoni Zeigler 32.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to Boston College
  • Davion Hill 26.9 mpg, 14.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Elmore James IV 23.9 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Devon Barnes 20.9 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Preston Copeland 18.1 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Juwan Maxey 13.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Sean Blake from Vermont · 28.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
  • Zaon Collins from Fresno St · 24.9 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
  • Javion Guy-King from C Arkansas · 21.1 mpg, 9.2 ppg last season
  • K'Jei Parker from UMass · 20.8 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
  • Babatunde Durodola from Temple · 19.2 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season
  • Trey Lewis from W Michigan · 17.6 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season

Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

S Indiana
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.