CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceOceanFirst Bank Center, West Long Branch, NJ

Saint Joseph's

Efficiency #118

2025-26: 24-12 · 14-6 conf

Monmouth

Efficiency #173

2025-26: 19-15 · 13-8 conf

Sat, Nov 28 · TBD

70.0

win 42%

Projected

72.3

win 58%

No line posted yet.

Model: MONM −2.3 · total 142.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Monmouth 68.0, Saint Joseph's 68.8 → 68.4 possessions

+0.2

Monmouth offense vs Saint Joseph's defense

−3.9

Saint Joseph's offense vs Monmouth defense

−2.2

Projected total

142.4

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Monmouth offense vs Saint Joseph's defense

−3.9

Saint Joseph's offense vs Monmouth defense

+2.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Monmouth by 2.3

2.3

Saint Joseph's side ◂▸ Monmouth side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 142.3 against a projected 142.4, and the margin steps add to +2.2 against +2.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Monmouth.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Saint Joseph's is the faster team (68.2, #192 of 365) and Monmouth the slower (67.2, #235). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

142.4

model

Projected team totals

70.0 / 72.3

Saint Joseph's / Monmouth

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.8#137

Saint Joseph's

68.0#210

Monmouth

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMonmouth

Where Monmouth struggles: shooting

Monmouth shoots an effective 49.6% (#259); Saint Joseph's allows 47.7% (#34). Expect about 48.5%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.0 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageSaint Joseph's

Where Saint Joseph's struggles: shooting

Saint Joseph's shoots an effective 49.2% (#284); Monmouth allows 50.1% (#103). Expect about 49.4%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversSaint Joseph's

Saint Joseph's turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.8% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against Saint Joseph's's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Joseph's) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Saint Joseph's at about 43.2% of its shots from three, Monmouth about 35.9%.

Saint Joseph's has the ball

OffenseMonmouth allowsvs D1 avg

49.2% #284

50.1% #103

-2.6 pt/100

16.8% #182

19.9% #27

-2.4 pt/100

31.4% #147

32.8% #287

+1.1 pt/100

29.7% #318

32.2% #111

-0.5 pt/100

73.8% #138

—

+0.1 pt/100

Saint Joseph's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.4 pts/100

Monmouth has the ball

OffenseSaint Joseph's allowsvs D1 avg

49.6% #259

47.7% #34

-4.0 pt/100

16.6% #173

15.0% #286

+1.5 pt/100

31.2% #157

30.6% #185

+0.4 pt/100

32.7% #244

26.9% #20

-0.7 pt/100

75.0% #82

—

+0.2 pt/100

Monmouth net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Saint Joseph'soffense vsMonmouthdefense

Share of shots by zone

Saint Joseph's shoots

40.1

4.5

11.0

44.5

Monmouth allows

40.9

6.5

14.5

38.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.2%#189	55.3%#67	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.7%#273	33.6%#37	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.0%#312	37.3%#140	38.0%
Three	30.8%#325	33.9%#174	33.7%

Monmouthoffense vsSaint Joseph'sdefense

Share of shots by zone

Monmouth shoots

36.9

7.6

21.0

34.5

Saint Joseph's allows

33.5

7.3

19.5

39.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.5%#254	52.6%#21	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.0%#245	41.5%#226	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.8%#153	38.3%#168	38.0%
Three	34.2%#156	31.7%#51	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Saint Joseph's

0.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#181 of 365

Off reb %

31.4%

#147

Def reb %

69.4%

#185

Turnover %

16.8%

#182

Forced TO %

15.0%

#286

FT rate

29.7%

#318

FT allowed

26.9%

#20

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed+2.1

Monmouth

+2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#95 of 365

Off reb %

31.2%

#157

Def reb %

67.2%

#287

Turnover %

16.6%

#173

Forced TO %

19.9%

#27

FT rate

32.7%

#244

FT allowed

32.2%

#111

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding−0.7

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers+2.2

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed+0.8

Monmouth has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.1 (#95 of 365) to Saint Joseph's’s 0.0 (#181).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Saint Joseph's2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Derek Simpson	G	Sr	6'3"	36-36	33.9	13.8	5.3	5.2	2.1	49.1%	31.5%	5.0	91.7%	25.5%
11	Jaiden Glover-Toscano	G	So	6'6"	34-34	31.4	15.7	4.8	1.0	1.4	52.2%	34.6%	7.6	72.8%	29.4%
7	Dasear Haskins	G	So	6'8"	36-36	27.7	11.1	6.4	1.4	1.2	53.8%	29.9%	3.5	67.6%	23.6%
13	Austin Williford	G	Fr	6'4"	36-19	26.2	7.8	4.7	1.4	1.2	47.5%	33.6%	4.0	69.8%	20.4%
22	Justice Ajogbor	C	Sr	6'10"	36-33	26.0	6.5	4.9	1.3	0.8	66.4%	—	0.0	60.0%	13.0%
5	Anthony Finkley	F	Jr	6'7"	35-13	19.0	5.4	3.3	1.6	1.3	38.2%	28.8%	3.2	80.8%	22.2%
3	Khaafiq Myers	G	Fr	5'10"	34-0	15.8	5.1	2.9	2.3	1.1	42.8%	25.0%	1.8	60.6%	25.4%
23	Mekai Johnson	G	So	6'5"	17-0	4.2	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.1	52.9%	18.2%	0.6	100.0%	15.8%
21	Al Amadou	F	So	6'9"	11-0	6.3	1.4	0.8	0.3	0.5	54.5%	0.0%	0.2	42.9%	15.9%
15	Steven Solano	C	So	7'0"	8-0	4.1	1.9	1.3	0.1	0.5	77.8%	—	0.0	50.0%	23.8%
24	Will Lange	G	Jr	6'4"	5-0	3.4	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	100.0%	15.6%
20	Billy Rayer	G	So	5'11"	6-0	2.0	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	18.4%
6	Owen Verna	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Monmouth2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Monmouth's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Jason Rivera-Torres	F	Jr	6'7"	34-34	35.2	15.8	8.1	2.9	1.9	46.2%	31.5%	4.9	81.0%	28.9%
13	Jack Collins	G	Sr	6'5"	31-31	34.9	7.0	4.7	4.5	2.7	43.0%	28.9%	4.6	65.3%	17.2%
7	Justin Ray	G	So	6'3"	34-21	28.4	11.3	2.1	1.2	0.6	55.4%	42.0%	4.6	88.9%	21.4%
23	Cornelius Robinson III	F	Jr	6'7"	33-25	24.9	8.0	3.9	1.2	1.3	46.9%	31.3%	0.5	64.2%	22.2%
15	Stefanos Spartalis	F	Fr	6'9"	32-30	23.6	10.7	5.1	0.9	1.5	46.5%	25.0%	0.5	85.1%	29.4%
4	Andrew Ball	G	Jr	6'9"	34-9	20.5	7.9	3.9	0.6	0.8	56.4%	30.5%	2.4	60.0%	22.5%
0	Dok Muordar	C	Sr	7'1"	33-3	12.4	4.1	2.3	0.1	0.4	51.0%	—	0.0	64.2%	20.4%
2	Kavion McClain	F	Sr	5'10"	11-11	35.6	17.1	2.8	5.5	3.5	58.0%	38.1%	5.7	84.6%	29.5%
3	Anthony Martinez	G	Fr	6'2"	25-5	6.9	0.6	0.3	0.6	0.4	27.5%	100.0%	0.0	42.9%	11.5%
5	Corey Miller	G	Jr	6'2"	9-1	13.4	3.7	0.9	1.0	0.3	60.9%	44.4%	1.0	83.3%	14.2%
24	Jinup Dobuol	F	So	6'8"	19-0	6.1	3.1	1.0	0.2	0.3	58.2%	44.0%	1.3	50.0%	28.0%
8	O'Marion Harvey	F	Fr	6'7"	14-0	3.8	0.6	0.7	0.1	0.4	80.0%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	13.5%
20	Zubayr Griffin	G	Fr	6'4"	10-0	3.6	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.2	55.0%	20.0%	0.5	—	18.6%
9	Lucas Orchard	G	So	6'3"	9-0	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	50.0%	100.0%	0.1	0.0%	18.6%
42	Quinn Peters	F	Jr	6'6"	9-0	2.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	14.3%
10	Jack Leahy	G	Jr	6'5"	9-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0%	—	0.0	—	15.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Saint Joseph's2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Derek Simpson	G	Sr	6'3"	36-36	33.9	13.8	5.3	5.2	2.1	49.1%	31.5%	5.0	91.7%	25.5%
11	Jaiden Glover-Toscano	G	So	6'6"	34-34	31.4	15.7	4.8	1.0	1.4	52.2%	34.6%	7.6	72.8%	29.4%
7	Dasear Haskins	G	So	6'8"	36-36	27.7	11.1	6.4	1.4	1.2	53.8%	29.9%	3.5	67.6%	23.6%
13	Austin Williford	G	Fr	6'4"	36-19	26.2	7.8	4.7	1.4	1.2	47.5%	33.6%	4.0	69.8%	20.4%
22	Justice Ajogbor	C	Sr	6'10"	36-33	26.0	6.5	4.9	1.3	0.8	66.4%	—	0.0	60.0%	13.0%
5	Anthony Finkley	F	Jr	6'7"	35-13	19.0	5.4	3.3	1.6	1.3	38.2%	28.8%	3.2	80.8%	22.2%
3	Khaafiq Myers	G	Fr	5'10"	34-0	15.8	5.1	2.9	2.3	1.1	42.8%	25.0%	1.8	60.6%	25.4%
23	Mekai Johnson	G	So	6'5"	17-0	4.2	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.1	52.9%	18.2%	0.6	100.0%	15.8%
21	Al Amadou	F	So	6'9"	11-0	6.3	1.4	0.8	0.3	0.5	54.5%	0.0%	0.2	42.9%	15.9%
15	Steven Solano	C	So	7'0"	8-0	4.1	1.9	1.3	0.1	0.5	77.8%	—	0.0	50.0%	23.8%
24	Will Lange	G	Jr	6'4"	5-0	3.4	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	100.0%	15.6%
20	Billy Rayer	G	So	5'11"	6-0	2.0	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	18.4%
6	Owen Verna	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Saint Joseph's

Against the spread

Season

20-14

Home

8-6

Road

10-6

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +5.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

10-23-1

Home

7-7

Road

3-12-1

Last 10

2-7-1

avg vs total −2.6

Under 5 straightOver in 1 of 7 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 24	New MexicoAdjEM #42	A	L 69–84	+10.5	L−4.5	155.0	U153	93.5	113.9	73.8
Mar 22	CaliforniaAdjEM #79	A	W 76–75	+5.5	W+6.5	151.5	U151	111.9	110.4	67.9
Mar 18	Colorado StAdjEM #88	A	W 69–64	+6.0	W+11.0	145.5	U133	103.0	95.5	67.0
Mar 14	VCUAdjEM #39	N	L 64–77	+6.5	L−6.5	146.0	U141	98.4	118.4	65.0
Mar 13	DavidsonAdjEM #112	N	W 70–58	−2.0	W+10.0	132.5	U128	114.6	95.0	61.1
Mar 7	La SalleAdjEM #256	H	W 88–76	−10.5	W+1.5	142.5	O164	128.0	110.5	68.8
Mar 4	DavidsonAdjEM #112	A	W 70–67	+2.5	W+5.5	137.0	P137	106.7	102.1	65.6
Feb 28	Rhode IslandAdjEM #137	A	W 61–55	+2.0	W+8.0	141.0	U116	86.8	78.3	70.3
Feb 25	George MasonAdjEM #83	H	W 81–63	+1.0	W+19.0	136.5	O144	125.7	97.7	64.5
Feb 21	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	H	W 75–61	−9.5	W+4.5	142.0	U136	113.9	92.6	65.9

Monmouth

Against the spread

Season

17-14-2

Home

5-6-2

Road

9-6

Last 10

6-3-1

avg cover +4.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-17

Home

5-8

Road

8-7

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.1

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	HofstraAdjEM #69	N	L 69–75	+4.0	L−2.0	135.0	O144	103.9	113.0	66.4
Mar 9	CampbellAdjEM #208	N	W 74–64	−1.5	W+8.5	152.0	U138	110.1	95.2	67.2
Mar 8	DrexelAdjEM #214	N	W 65–57	−4.0	W+4.0	137.5	U122	100.6	88.2	64.6
Mar 3	NortheasternAdjEM #274	A	W 89–83	−4.0	W+2.0	149.5	O172	132.9	123.9	67.0
Feb 28	ElonAdjEM #228	H	W 73–57	−3.5	W+12.5	153.0	U130	115.7	90.3	63.1
Feb 26	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	H	W 82–69	−4.5	W+8.5	146.5	O151	121.4	102.2	67.5
Feb 21	CharlestonAdjEM #165	A	L 63–74	+5.0	L−6.0	150.0	U137	93.5	109.9	67.4
Feb 19	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	A	L 69–79	+7.5	L−2.5	145.0	O148	95.8	109.7	72.0
Feb 15	TowsonAdjEM #149	H	W 72–71	−1.0	P0.0	137.5	O143	110.7	109.1	65.0
Feb 12	DrexelAdjEM #214	A	W 93–73	+1.0	W+21.0	134.0	O166	129.7	101.8	71.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Saint Joseph'sMonmouth

Efficiency

107.1

106.8

104.5

106.6

68.8

68.0

—

Shooting

49.2%

49.6%

51.7%

48.7%

30.8%

34.2%

73.8%

75.0%

29.7%

32.7%

Ball control & glass

16.8%

16.6%

15.0%

19.9%

31.4%

31.2%

30.6%

32.8%

9.7%

9.1%

10.8%

8.7%

Style

45.1%

34.4%

44.1%

42.9%

15.5%

16.0%

59.6%

53.9%

26.1%

25.7%

Roster

2.54

2.82

6'5.5"

6'6.2"

90.9%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Saint Joseph's

Returning minutes: 90.9%Returning production: 91.4%

Lost

Jaden Smith 9.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Deuce Jones 7.5 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kevin Kearney 1.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Manhattan

Added

Owen Verna no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 91% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Monmouth

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Monmouth's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.