CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLevien Gymnasium, New York, NY
North Florida
Efficiency #338
2025-26: 7-25 · 5-14 conf
@
Columbia
Efficiency #166
2025-26: 16-12 · 5-9 conf
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
73.0
win 15%
Projected
85.3
win 85%
No line posted yet.
Model: COLU −12.3 · total 158.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Columbia 68.0, North Florida 70.4 → 70.1 possessions
+3.9
Columbia offense vs North Florida defense
+7.2
North Florida offense vs Columbia defense
−1.0
Projected total
158.3
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Columbia offense vs North Florida defense
+7.2
North Florida offense vs Columbia defense
+1.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Columbia by 12.3
12.3
North Florida side ◂▸ Columbia side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +12.2 against +12.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Columbia.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, North Florida is the faster team (71.9, #26 of 365) and Columbia the slower (67.1, #236). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
158.3
model
Projected team totals
73.0 / 85.3
North Florida / Columbia
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.4#29
North Florida
68.0#211
Columbia
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageColumbia
Where Columbia scores: shooting
Columbia shoots an effective 53.5% (#83); North Florida allows 56.3% (#349). Expect about 55.1%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.5 points per 100 possessions.
GlassColumbia
Columbia owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 37.9% is worth roughly +4.5 points per 100 possessions for Columbia's offense.
AdvantageNorth Florida
Where North Florida struggles: the offensive glass
North Florida rebounds 25.2% of its own misses (#335); Columbia lets opponents grab 27.2% of their own misses (#42). Expect about 25.2%, 5.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.
ClashNorth Florida
Style clash: 3-point volume
North Florida takes 51.7% of its shots from three; Columbia runs teams off the line (36.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 47.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashColumbia
Style match: paint scoring
Columbia scores 47.0% of its points in the paint; North Florida gives up 48.5% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.8% — both habits push the same way.
North Florida has the ball
OffenseColumbia allowsvs D1 avg
52.9% #106
51.2% #168
+1.3 pt/100
17.9% #264
15.0% #288
+0.6 pt/100
25.2% #335
27.2% #42
-3.2 pt/100
28.8% #333
33.5% #140
-0.5 pt/100
77.8% #20
—
+0.5 pt/100
North Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.3 pts/100
Columbia has the ball
OffenseNorth Florida allowsvs D1 avg
53.5% #83
56.3% #349
+5.5 pt/100
19.3% #333
12.7% #362
+1.4 pt/100
36.1% #23
37.6% #361
+4.5 pt/100
28.6% #337
31.4% #91
-0.7 pt/100
70.1% #271
—
-0.2 pt/100
Columbia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersNorth Floridaoffense vsColumbiadefense
Share of shots by zone
North Florida shoots
35.7
3.2
9.7
51.4
Columbia allows
41.1
5.4
18.3
35.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.2%#223 | 55.9%#84 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.8%#344 | 35.6%#77 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 46.5%#6 | 42.1%#308 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.0%#117 | 35.2%#258 | 33.7% |
Columbiaoffense vsNorth Floridadefense
Share of shots by zone
Columbia shoots
44.0
5.8
13.4
36.9
North Florida allows
44.5
4.9
12.1
38.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.8%#167 | 62.9%#321 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.0%#222 | 47.1%#334 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.3%#137 | 45.1%#350 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.9%#61 | 35.1%#253 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNorth Florida
−8.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#362 of 365
Off reb %
25.2%
#335
Def reb %
62.4%
#361
Turnover %
17.9%
#264
Forced TO %
12.7%
#362
FT rate
28.8%
#333
FT allowed
31.4%
#91
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding−2.3
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers−2.7
Foul shots drawn−1.6
Foul shots allowed+1.0
Columbia
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#241 of 365
Off reb %
36.1%
#23
Def reb %
72.8%
#42
Turnover %
19.3%
#333
Forced TO %
15.0%
#288
FT rate
28.6%
#337
FT allowed
33.5%
#140
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.8
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−1.8
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed+0.4
Columbia has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.2 (#241 of 365) to North Florida’s −8.0 (#362).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
North Florida2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted North Florida's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Kamrin Oriol | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 35.7 | 20.9 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 58.4% | 40.2% | 7.6 | 88.7% | 30.8% | |
| 10 | Kent Jackson | G | So | 6'2" | 32-32 | 31.9 | 14.8 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 51.2% | 34.8% | 9.5 | 92.5% | 27.0% | |
| 1 | BJ Plummer | F | Fr | 6'6" | 32-17 | 26.9 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 51.6% | 32.8% | 4.0 | 65.6% | 17.3% | |
| 2 | Mason Lee | F | So | 6'7" | 32-30 | 26.1 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 64.6% | 37.5% | 2.8 | 69.2% | 16.7% | |
| 21 | Dalton Gayman | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-13 | 23.6 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 52.4% | 36.5% | 2.0 | 76.1% | 24.5% | |
| 24 | Nestor Dyachok | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-18 | 15.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 49.5% | 8.0% | 0.8 | 68.0% | 17.0% | |
| 4 | Devin Hines | G | Sr | 6'4" | 27-15 | 17.1 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 45.4% | 24.4% | 1.7 | 71.4% | 20.8% | |
| 5 | Dante Oliver | G | So | 6'5" | 31-0 | 12.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 51.6% | 38.9% | 1.2 | 60.0% | 11.1% | |
| 22 | Trey Cady | F | Fr | 6'8" | 29-3 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 48.9% | 33.9% | 1.9 | 74.2% | 28.9% | |
| 3 | Taylor Thompson | G | Fr | 5'11" | 19-0 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 38.5% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 66.7% | 16.0% | |
| 25 | Gabe Jacobs | G | Fr | 6'1" | 9-0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 57.7% | 30.0% | 1.1 | 100.0% | 22.3% | |
| 13 | Alex Vargo | G | Sr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 12 | Arden Begaj | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Mason Watkins | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Columbia2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Columbia's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kenny Noland | G | Sr | 6'2" | 28-28 | 33.1 | 17.1 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 54.5% | 37.5% | 6.9 | 92.1% | 30.7% | |
| 3 | Blair Thompson | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-28 | 31.0 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 59.9% | 40.9% | 3.9 | 64.1% | 19.5% | |
| 14 | Mason Ritter | F | So | 6'9" | 28-28 | 24.4 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 55.4% | 14.3% | 0.5 | 66.1% | 19.6% | |
| 24 | Miles Franklin | G | Fr | 6'5" | 26-22 | 23.9 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 47.9% | 22.9% | 2.7 | 64.9% | 25.9% | |
| 4 | Gerard O'Keefe | G | So | 6'3" | 27-4 | 21.6 | 8.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 60.8% | 42.4% | 3.7 | 69.6% | 20.6% | |
| 10 | Connor Igoe | F | Fr | 6'7" | 28-6 | 19.8 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 53.8% | 34.1% | 1.6 | 63.2% | 28.0% | |
| 12 | Ryan Soulis | F | So | 6'10" | 26-17 | 20.0 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 51.2% | 21.4% | 1.1 | 63.3% | 19.8% | |
| 7 | Hampton Sanders | G | Jr | 6'0" | 28-0 | 15.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 49.5% | 37.0% | 1.6 | 74.3% | 19.5% | |
| 22 | Richard Nweke | F | Jr | 6'7" | 20-0 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 51.1% | — | 0.0 | 60.9% | 20.3% | |
| 23 | Zine Eddine Bedri | F | Sr | 6'10" | 5-5 | 24.4 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 58.7% | 44.4% | 1.8 | 58.8% | 37.4% | |
| 6 | Leland Coleman | F | So | 6'7" | 15-0 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 42.9% | 22.5% | |
| 1 | Avery Brown | G | Sr | 6'4" | 3-2 | 15.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 50.0% | 75.0% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 25.3% | |
| 8 | Josiah Cunningham | G | So | 6'2" | 5-0 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 33.3% | 24.4% | |
| 0 | Edwin Bai | G | Fr | 6'2" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 7.0% | |
| 21 | Dan Vessey | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Nicolo Romanelli | G | Jr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Nigel Clarkson | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
North Florida2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted North Florida's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Kamrin Oriol | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 35.7 | 20.9 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 58.4% | 40.2% | 7.6 | 88.7% | 30.8% | |
| 10 | Kent Jackson | G | So | 6'2" | 32-32 | 31.9 | 14.8 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 51.2% | 34.8% | 9.5 | 92.5% | 27.0% | |
| 1 | BJ Plummer | F | Fr | 6'6" | 32-17 | 26.9 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 51.6% | 32.8% | 4.0 | 65.6% | 17.3% | |
| 2 | Mason Lee | F | So | 6'7" | 32-30 | 26.1 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 64.6% | 37.5% | 2.8 | 69.2% | 16.7% | |
| 21 | Dalton Gayman | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-13 | 23.6 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 52.4% | 36.5% | 2.0 | 76.1% | 24.5% | |
| 24 | Nestor Dyachok | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-18 | 15.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 49.5% | 8.0% | 0.8 | 68.0% | 17.0% | |
| 4 | Devin Hines | G | Sr | 6'4" | 27-15 | 17.1 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 45.4% | 24.4% | 1.7 | 71.4% | 20.8% | |
| 5 | Dante Oliver | G | So | 6'5" | 31-0 | 12.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 51.6% | 38.9% | 1.2 | 60.0% | 11.1% | |
| 22 | Trey Cady | F | Fr | 6'8" | 29-3 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 48.9% | 33.9% | 1.9 | 74.2% | 28.9% | |
| 3 | Taylor Thompson | G | Fr | 5'11" | 19-0 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 38.5% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 66.7% | 16.0% | |
| 25 | Gabe Jacobs | G | Fr | 6'1" | 9-0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 57.7% | 30.0% | 1.1 | 100.0% | 22.3% | |
| 13 | Alex Vargo | G | Sr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 12 | Arden Begaj | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Mason Watkins | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26North Florida
Against the spread
Season
18-12
Home
7-4
Road
9-7
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +1.3
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 6 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
15-14-1
Home
4-7
Road
8-7-1
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −5.3
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 10 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | West Georgia | N | L 85–93 | +4.0 | L−4.0 | 159.0 | O178 | 113.1 | 123.7 | 75.2 |
| Feb 28 | Jacksonville | H | L 61–85 | +1.5 | L−22.5 | 150.0 | U146 | 88.3 | 123.1 | 69.1 |
| Feb 26 | FGCU | H | W 76–70 | +7.0 | W+13.0 | 161.0 | U146 | 109.8 | 101.2 | 69.2 |
| Feb 21 | Stetson | A | L 71–76 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 160.5 | U147 | 111.1 | 118.9 | 63.9 |
| Feb 19 | Austin Peay | H | L 76–77 | +11.0 | W+10.0 | 165.5 | U153 | 97.5 | 98.7 | 78.0 |
| Feb 14 | Jacksonville | A | L 56–63 | +7.5 | W+0.5 | 153.0 | U119 | 96.1 | 108.2 | 58.3 |
| Feb 11 | FGCU | A | L 81–90 | +12.5 | W+3.5 | 163.5 | O171 | 111.2 | 123.6 | 72.8 |
| Feb 7 | Queens | A | L 72–91 | +15.5 | L−3.5 | 179.5 | U163 | 104.3 | 131.9 | 69.0 |
| Feb 5 | West Georgia | A | W 81–73 | +6.5 | W+14.5 | 166.0 | U154 | 109.0 | 98.2 | 74.3 |
| Jan 31 | Lipscomb | H | L 94–100 | +11.0 | W+5.0 | 166.5 | O194 | 129.0 | 137.2 | 72.9 |
Columbia
Against the spread
Season
12-13-1
Home
5-6-1
Road
7-7
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −2.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-12
Home
5-7
Road
9-5
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −6.9
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Harvard | A | L 71–81 | +5.0 | L−5.0 | 135.0 | O152 | 105.4 | 120.2 | 67.4 |
| Feb 28 | Yale | H | L 54–60 | +6.5 | W+0.5 | 146.0 | U114 | 89.0 | 98.9 | 60.7 |
| Feb 27 | Brown | H | W 80–62 | −5.5 | W+12.5 | 140.0 | O142 | 117.6 | 91.1 | 68.1 |
| Feb 21 | Dartmouth | H | L 63–64 | −7.0 | L−8.0 | 151.5 | U127 | 93.8 | 95.3 | 67.2 |
| Feb 14 | Princeton | A | W 75–65 | −1.5 | W+8.5 | 136.5 | O140 | 133.2 | 115.5 | 56.3 |
| Feb 13 | Penn | A | L 67–76 | +2.0 | L−7.0 | 148.0 | U143 | 95.2 | 108.0 | 70.4 |
| Feb 7 | Cornell | H | L 67–88 | +1.0 | L−20.0 | 170.5 | U155 | 101.9 | 133.9 | 65.7 |
| Jan 31 | Princeton | H | L 68–80 | −5.5 | L−17.5 | 139.0 | O148 | 109.6 | 129.0 | 62.0 |
| Jan 30 | Penn | H | W 72–67 | −5.5 | L−0.5 | 153.5 | U139 | 107.4 | 99.9 | 67.0 |
| Jan 24 | Dartmouth | A | W 79–69 | −2.0 | W+8.0 | 157.0 | U148 | 110.6 | 96.6 | 71.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNorth FloridaColumbia
Efficiency
106.9
109.0
118.3
108.6
70.4
68.0
—
—
Shooting
52.9%
53.5%
53.4%
53.2%
35.0%
35.9%
77.8%
70.1%
28.8%
28.6%
Ball control & glass
17.9%
19.3%
12.7%
15.0%
25.2%
36.1%
37.6%
27.2%
11.2%
10.1%
12.6%
9.9%
Style
51.7%
37.5%
36.0%
47.0%
11.3%
9.9%
50.6%
54.3%
30.3%
32.6%
Roster
2.68
2.59
6'5.1"
6'5.7"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNorth Florida
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted North Florida's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Columbia
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Columbia's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, Dec 28 | 2025-26 | Columbia 90 – 82 North Florida |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.