CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceStony Brook Arena, Stony Brook, NY

Delaware

Efficiency #302

2025-26: 10-21 · 6-14 conf

Stony Brook

Efficiency #232

2025-26: 17-15 · 9-10 conf

Sat, Nov 28 · TBD

66.6

win 29%

Projected

73.1

win 71%

No line posted yet.

Model: STBK −6.6 · total 139.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Stony Brook 67.5, Delaware 65.5 → 64.7 possessions

−7.8

Stony Brook offense vs Delaware defense

+1.1

Delaware offense vs Stony Brook defense

−1.8

Projected total

139.7

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Stony Brook offense vs Delaware defense

+1.1

Delaware offense vs Stony Brook defense

+1.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

Stony Brook by 6.6

6.6

Delaware side ◂▸ Stony Brook side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Stony Brook.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Stony Brook is the faster team (66.4, #277 of 365) and Delaware the slower (63.9, #356). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

64.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

139.7

model

Projected team totals

66.6 / 73.1

Delaware / Stony Brook

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.5#356

Delaware

67.5#251

Stony Brook

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Stony Brook averages 66.4 possessions per 40, Delaware 63.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageDelaware

Where Delaware struggles: the offensive glass

Delaware rebounds 20.8% of its own misses (#362); Stony Brook lets opponents grab 32.4% of their own misses (#274). Expect about 24.6%, 5.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions.

ClashStony Brook

Style match: 3-point volume

Stony Brook takes 45.8% of its shots from three; Delaware lets opponents take 43.4% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 47.1% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageStony Brook

Where Stony Brook scores: ball control

Stony Brook turns it over on 16.8% of possessions (#187); Delaware forces turnovers on 14.0% of opponent possessions (#334). Expect about 15.1%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Delaware) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Delaware at about 45.1% of its shots from three, Stony Brook about 47.1%.

ClashStony Brook

Style match: paint scoring

Stony Brook gets only 36.0% of its points in the paint; Delaware protects the paint (39.2% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 39.9% — both habits push the same way.

Delaware has the ball

OffenseStony Brook allowsvs D1 avg

53.3% #89

50.7% #138

+1.2 pt/100

18.2% #285

17.1% #138

-1.3 pt/100

20.8% #362

32.4% #274

-3.5 pt/100

30.6% #291

35.4% #191

-0.2 pt/100

78.6% #10

—

+0.5 pt/100

Delaware net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.3 pts/100

Stony Brook has the ball

OffenseDelaware allowsvs D1 avg

50.2% #227

51.5% #185

-0.7 pt/100

16.8% #187

14.0% #334

+2.1 pt/100

28.0% #267

31.1% #206

-0.8 pt/100

28.4% #339

30.2% #62

-0.8 pt/100

72.3% #197

—

-0.0 pt/100

Stony Brook net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Delawareoffense vsStony Brookdefense

Share of shots by zone

Delaware shoots

33.1

6.3

14.6

46.0

Stony Brook allows

36.9

5.5

18.3

39.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.4%#179	56.1%#89	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.6%#185	37.5%#124	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.0%#144	36.0%#108	38.0%
Three	36.8%#31	35.7%#291	33.7%

Stony Brookoffense vsDelawaredefense

Share of shots by zone

Stony Brook shoots

33.6

5.8

14.4

46.2

Delaware allows

33.6

5.7

17.4

43.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.5%#328	59.3%#206	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.4%#281	38.0%#136	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.0%#79	36.1%#112	38.0%
Three	34.8%#128	35.1%#255	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Delaware

−5.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#355 of 365

Off reb %

20.8%

#362

Def reb %

68.9%

#206

Turnover %

18.2%

#285

Forced TO %

14.0%

#334

FT rate

30.6%

#291

FT allowed

30.2%

#62

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−3.1

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers−1.8

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Stony Brook

−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#295 of 365

Off reb %

28.0%

#267

Def reb %

67.6%

#274

Turnover %

16.8%

#187

Forced TO %

17.1%

#138

FT rate

28.4%

#339

FT allowed

35.4%

#191

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.8

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers+0.3

Foul shots drawn−1.7

Foul shots allowed0.0

Stony Brook has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.8 (#295 of 365) to Delaware’s −5.9 (#355).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Delaware2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
00	Christian Bliss	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	39.8	16.7	5.2	5.9	3.1	51.5%	39.2%	5.5	84.8%	27.4%
5	Macon Emory	F	So	6'8"	31-31	37.1	11.3	6.6	1.2	1.7	49.8%	28.5%	4.9	75.4%	21.0%
4	Justyn Fernandez	G	Sr	6'5"	28-28	37.4	16.6	4.6	2.1	3.0	52.9%	40.3%	5.7	87.8%	29.6%
20	Alex Kazanecki	G	Fr	6'6"	31-13	28.7	5.1	2.1	0.6	0.6	57.5%	37.1%	3.1	72.2%	10.9%
44	Tyler Houser	F	Sr	6'9"	26-26	33.3	14.2	5.4	1.7	1.3	57.4%	38.3%	4.1	81.7%	24.6%
11	Jayden Taylor	F	Fr	6'8"	31-10	15.3	3.1	2.4	0.2	0.5	61.7%	33.3%	0.4	61.8%	12.4%
15	Houston Emory	F	Sr	6'9"	24-5	11.1	1.7	1.6	0.3	0.6	72.7%	100.0%	0.1	50.0%	10.3%
1	Mason Ellison	G	Fr	6'4"	7-1	21.3	4.7	1.3	0.9	1.3	40.6%	16.7%	1.7	58.3%	18.1%
55	Jameel Brown	G	Sr	6'4"	4-4	23.5	9.8	2.8	0.8	1.8	46.9%	42.1%	4.8	75.0%	27.8%
35	Bouna Kebe	F	Sr	6'9"	14-5	5.7	1.2	1.0	0.3	0.1	42.5%	12.5%	0.6	0.0%	17.4%
21	Nnanna Njoku	F	Sr	6'9"	2-0	14.0	2.0	1.5	0.0	1.0	14.3%	0.0%	0.5	50.0%	25.0%
3	Cavan Reilly	G	Sr	6'4"	1-1	23.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	2.0	12.5%	0.0%	5.0	50.0%	26.2%
10	Brandon Baffone	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	2.8	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	8.4%
12	Alex McFadden	G	So	6'1"	4-0	2.3	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.4%
14	Lance Piper	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Stony Brook2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stony Brook's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Erik Pratt	G	Sr	6'5"	30-30	34.4	19.4	4.9	3.7	2.8	48.3%	31.6%	5.7	74.5%	37.5%
2	Rob Brown III	G	Sr	6'4"	32-30	31.1	10.8	3.1	1.3	1.0	49.3%	35.9%	6.0	86.4%	21.5%
29	Andrej Shoshkikj	G	Fr	6'2"	32-21	26.0	10.7	2.6	2.4	1.8	59.3%	45.1%	3.2	96.4%	23.5%
12	Richard Goods	F	So	6'9"	32-27	25.0	7.7	5.9	2.1	1.4	49.3%	35.2%	2.8	51.3%	21.8%
21	Tomas Valentiny	F	Fr	6'6"	32-4	19.1	4.8	3.5	0.9	0.5	47.5%	32.1%	2.4	63.6%	16.9%
15	Quin Gorman	F	So	6'8"	31-30	18.6	3.9	3.6	0.9	0.6	50.0%	30.4%	1.5	65.6%	13.8%
7	Ethan Simmon	G	Sr	6'5"	27-5	16.2	6.0	1.4	0.4	0.3	59.2%	39.7%	2.9	69.0%	19.2%
5	Jonah Butler	G	Fr	6'6"	30-0	12.5	4.3	1.9	0.6	0.5	52.4%	32.3%	2.1	78.6%	20.7%
17	Oleg Kojenets	F	Sr	7'0"	32-2	10.3	2.9	3.0	0.4	0.7	39.3%	—	0.0	58.7%	23.1%
4	Toby Onyekonwu	G	Sr	6'2"	20-2	10.8	2.5	0.8	0.8	0.8	41.0%	25.9%	1.4	72.7%	19.2%
13	Collin O'Connor	G	So	6'3"	8-8	26.3	7.5	2.5	1.8	1.5	60.0%	28.6%	1.8	80.0%	16.5%
33	Leon Nahar	F	Jr	6'10"	6-1	4.3	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	37.5%	33.3%	1.0	100.0%	22.1%
11	Jake Harbatkin	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	4.0	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	13.6%
6	Liam Dagostino	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	4.0	1.0	2.3	0.0	0.3	33.3%	0.0%	0.7	50.0%	22.4%
10	Andrew Okafor	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	3.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Delaware2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
00	Christian Bliss	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	39.8	16.7	5.2	5.9	3.1	51.5%	39.2%	5.5	84.8%	27.4%
5	Macon Emory	F	So	6'8"	31-31	37.1	11.3	6.6	1.2	1.7	49.8%	28.5%	4.9	75.4%	21.0%
4	Justyn Fernandez	G	Sr	6'5"	28-28	37.4	16.6	4.6	2.1	3.0	52.9%	40.3%	5.7	87.8%	29.6%
20	Alex Kazanecki	G	Fr	6'6"	31-13	28.7	5.1	2.1	0.6	0.6	57.5%	37.1%	3.1	72.2%	10.9%
44	Tyler Houser	F	Sr	6'9"	26-26	33.3	14.2	5.4	1.7	1.3	57.4%	38.3%	4.1	81.7%	24.6%
11	Jayden Taylor	F	Fr	6'8"	31-10	15.3	3.1	2.4	0.2	0.5	61.7%	33.3%	0.4	61.8%	12.4%
15	Houston Emory	F	Sr	6'9"	24-5	11.1	1.7	1.6	0.3	0.6	72.7%	100.0%	0.1	50.0%	10.3%
1	Mason Ellison	G	Fr	6'4"	7-1	21.3	4.7	1.3	0.9	1.3	40.6%	16.7%	1.7	58.3%	18.1%
55	Jameel Brown	G	Sr	6'4"	4-4	23.5	9.8	2.8	0.8	1.8	46.9%	42.1%	4.8	75.0%	27.8%
35	Bouna Kebe	F	Sr	6'9"	14-5	5.7	1.2	1.0	0.3	0.1	42.5%	12.5%	0.6	0.0%	17.4%
21	Nnanna Njoku	F	Sr	6'9"	2-0	14.0	2.0	1.5	0.0	1.0	14.3%	0.0%	0.5	50.0%	25.0%
3	Cavan Reilly	G	Sr	6'4"	1-1	23.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	2.0	12.5%	0.0%	5.0	50.0%	26.2%
10	Brandon Baffone	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	2.8	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	8.4%
12	Alex McFadden	G	So	6'1"	4-0	2.3	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.4%
14	Lance Piper	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Delaware

Against the spread

Season

14-15-1

Home

6-7-1

Road

7-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +0.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 10 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-14

Home

10-4

Road

6-8

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +13.9

Under in the last gameOver in 8 of 10 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Louisiana TechAdjEM #211	H	L 38–81	+2.0	L−41.0	132.5	U119	60.3	128.5	63.0
Mar 5	Sam HoustonAdjEM #101	H	W 83–80	+7.5	W+10.5	148.0	O163	116.7	112.4	71.2
Feb 28	Kennesaw StAdjEM #154	A	L 82–90	+12.0	W+4.0	143.0	O172	117.9	129.4	69.5
Feb 26	Jax StateAdjEM #215	A	L 70–80 OT	+7.5	L−2.5	134.0	O150	104.8	119.8	66.8
Feb 21	MTSUAdjEM #167	A	L 66–78	+10.0	L−2.0	137.5	O144	106.5	125.8	62.0
Feb 18	Western KYAdjEM #159	H	L 87–88 OT	+4.0	W+3.0	139.5	O175	125.3	126.7	69.4
Feb 14	Missouri StAdjEM #212	A	W 76–67	+8.5	W+17.5	135.0	O143	121.0	106.7	62.8
Feb 12	FIUAdjEM #200	A	W 68–66	+8.5	W+10.5	146.5	U134	101.9	98.9	66.8
Feb 7	MTSUAdjEM #167	H	W 89–88 OT	+4.5	W+5.5	133.5	O177	129.9	128.5	68.5
Feb 4	LibertyAdjEM #103	H	L 69–75	+10.0	W+4.0	132.0	O144	110.6	120.2	62.4

Stony Brook

Against the spread

Season

17-12-1

Home

9-4-1

Road

7-6

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 4 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

9-5

Road

5-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.6

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	CampbellAdjEM #208	N	L 89–96	+3.0	L−4.0	147.0	O185	123.2	132.8	72.3
Mar 3	TowsonAdjEM #149	H	L 57–69	+1.0	L−11.0	135.5	U126	93.1	112.7	61.2
Feb 28	HofstraAdjEM #69	A	L 58–67	+11.5	W+2.5	139.5	U125	83.8	96.8	69.2
Feb 26	MonmouthAdjEM #173	A	L 69–82	+4.5	L−8.5	146.5	O151	102.2	121.4	67.5
Feb 21	HamptonAdjEM #268	H	W 79–72	−5.0	W+2.0	135.5	O151	114.6	104.5	68.9
Feb 16	DrexelAdjEM #214	H	W 72–69	−3.0	P0.0	136.5	O141	110.1	105.5	65.4
Feb 12	TowsonAdjEM #149	A	L 57–69	+6.5	L−5.5	135.0	U126	89.9	108.8	63.4
Feb 7	NortheasternAdjEM #274	H	W 69–55	−4.0	W+10.0	153.5	U124	102.9	82.0	67.1
Feb 5	MonmouthAdjEM #173	H	L 75–76	−1.5	L−2.5	137.5	O151	104.5	105.9	71.8
Jan 31	ElonAdjEM #228	A	W 72–68	+5.5	W+9.5	147.5	U140	104.3	98.5	69.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

DelawareStony Brook

Efficiency

105.2

106.0

112.6

109.1

65.5

67.5

—

Shooting

53.3%

50.2%

51.7%

48.5%

36.8%

34.8%

78.6%

72.3%

30.6%

28.4%

Ball control & glass

18.2%

16.8%

14.0%

17.1%

20.8%

28.0%

31.1%

32.4%

11.4%

10.2%

10.4%

11.7%

Style

46.2%

45.8%

36.8%

36.0%

6.9%

9.4%

52.3%

52.4%

15.7%

33.6%

Roster

2.72

2.65

6'6.4"

6'5.6"

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Delaware

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Stony Brook

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Stony Brook's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.