CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLeavey Center, Santa Clara, CA
Utah Tech
Efficiency #216
2025-26: 19-15 · 12-8 conf
@
Santa Clara
Efficiency #33
2025-26: 26-9 · 17-4 conf
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
70.9
win 12%
Projected
84.3
win 88%
No line posted yet.
Model: SCU −13.5 · total 155.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Santa Clara 69.5, Utah Tech 67.7 → 68.9 possessions
+1.2
Santa Clara offense vs Utah Tech defense
+7.6
Utah Tech offense vs Santa Clara defense
−1.9
Projected total
155.2
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Santa Clara offense vs Utah Tech defense
+7.6
Utah Tech offense vs Santa Clara defense
+1.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Santa Clara by 13.5
13.5
Utah Tech side ◂▸ Santa Clara side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 155.1 against a projected 155.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Santa Clara.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Santa Clara is the faster team (69.5, #113 of 365) and Utah Tech the slower (68.0, #199). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
155.2
model
Projected team totals
70.9 / 84.3
Utah Tech / Santa Clara
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#230
Utah Tech
69.5#84
Santa Clara

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSanta Clara
Where Santa Clara scores: the offensive glass
Santa Clara rebounds 36.4% of its own misses (#20); Utah Tech lets opponents grab 34.5% of their own misses (#326). Expect about 36.6%, 6.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.8 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageUtah Tech
Where Utah Tech struggles: ball control
Utah Tech turns it over on 17.6% of possessions (#244); Santa Clara forces turnovers on 19.9% of opponent possessions (#25). Expect about 19.3%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseSanta Clara
Santa Clara's ball-hawking
Santa Clara ranks #17 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.7% of Utah Tech's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Utah Tech's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Utah Tech at about 37.8% of its shots from three, Santa Clara about 40.6%.
ClashSanta Clara
Style clash: 3-point volume
Santa Clara takes 45.0% of its shots from three; Utah Tech runs teams off the line (34.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Utah Tech has the ball
OffenseSanta Clara allowsvs D1 avg
53.3% #90
52.0% #213
+2.2 pt/100
17.6% #244
19.9% #25
-3.1 pt/100
28.1% #261
32.1% #262
-0.5 pt/100
30.6% #290
38.2% #264
-0.0 pt/100
72.6% #183
—
+0.0 pt/100
Utah Tech net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.4 pts/100
Santa Clara has the ball
OffenseUtah Tech allowsvs D1 avg
54.4% #53
50.9% #151
+2.3 pt/100
15.4% #99
16.9% #160
+0.8 pt/100
36.4% #20
34.5% #326
+3.8 pt/100
25.5% #363
33.0% #132
-0.7 pt/100
74.4% #106
—
+0.2 pt/100
Santa Clara net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Utah Techoffense vsSanta Claradefense
Share of shots by zone
Utah Tech shoots
Santa Clara allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.7%#13161.4%#28158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)49.0%#1438.4%#14439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.5%#3032.9%#2638.0%
Three35.0%#11333.1%#12733.7%
Santa Claraoffense vsUtah Techdefense
Share of shots by zone
Santa Clara shoots
Utah Tech allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.3%#8460.9%#26558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.2%#3728.9%#1139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.1%#2437.5%#14138.0%
Three34.9%#12530.7%#2933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Utah Tech
−3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#301 of 365
Off reb %
28.1%
#261
Def reb %
65.5%
#326
Turnover %
17.6%
#244
Forced TO %
16.9%
#160
FT rate
30.6%
#290
FT allowed
33.0%
#132
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−1.2
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Santa Clara
+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#123 of 365
Off reb %
36.4%
#20
Def reb %
67.9%
#262
Turnover %
15.4%
#99
Forced TO %
19.9%
#25
FT rate
25.5%
#363
FT allowed
38.2%
#264
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers+2.2
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.8

Santa Clara has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.4 (#123 of 365) to Utah Tech’s −3.0 (#301).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Utah Tech2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Utah Tech's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
66Noah BolangaGSo6'8"34-3132.711.96.02.22.149.7%32.6%5.367.5%24.4%
2Chance TrujilloGSo6'4"33-2332.912.33.42.71.552.6%35.3%6.381.3%22.3%
35Ethan PotterFSr6'8"34-3431.216.87.81.91.360.2%15.8%0.680.1%27.3%
4Jusaun HoltGSr6'7"33-2931.712.04.13.43.250.5%40.6%4.280.7%25.8%
11Tanner DavisGFr6'5"33-2626.67.53.11.81.055.7%23.1%1.252.6%16.9%
13Britton BerrettGSr6'5"34-1723.05.31.91.20.760.0%40.4%3.192.3%12.4%
33Madiba OwonaGSo6'4"15-824.79.73.11.51.550.8%36.0%3.352.2%25.6%
23Samuel AriyibiFSr6'8"32-29.92.41.80.50.842.7%11.1%0.367.6%18.9%
52Dario DomingosFSr6'7"26-06.74.82.00.20.863.5%25.0%0.261.4%39.4%
3Boston HarkerGJr6'4"7-08.03.72.01.00.146.9%20.0%0.778.6%21.9%
5Dallin GrantFSo6'8"10-05.32.51.60.10.162.5%16.7%0.60.0%21.4%
14Preston VandermydeGSo6'5"8-04.81.30.90.10.642.9%50.0%0.5100.0%19.1%
1Hunter SchenckGSo6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Marvel AllenGSo6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Utah TechSanta Clara
Efficiency
108.9
117.3
110.8
105.4
67.7
69.5
—
—
Shooting
53.3%
54.4%
53.7%
56.1%
35.0%
34.9%
72.6%
74.4%
30.6%
25.5%
Ball control & glass
17.6%
15.4%
16.9%
19.9%
28.1%
36.4%
34.5%
32.1%
10.2%
9.2%
7.3%
9.0%
Style
38.2%
45.0%
42.8%
43.7%
12.0%
15.2%
53.2%
55.0%
25.8%
35.7%
Roster
2.85
2.38
6'6.2"
6'5.1"
—
65.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Utah Tech
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Utah Tech's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Santa Clara
Returning minutes: 65.0%Returning production: 55.6%
Lost
  • Elijah Mahi 30.4 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Allen Graves 22.6 mpg, 11.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Bukky Oboye 17.3 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Auburn
Added
  • Brad Longcor III no D1 minutes last season
  • Malachi Douyon no D1 minutes last season
  • Noah Badibanga no D1 minutes last season
  • Chris Tadjo no D1 minutes last season
  • Gehrig Normand no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 65% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Wed, Dec 32025-26Utah Tech 80 – 90 Santa Clara

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.