CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceKimmel Arena, Asheville, NC

GA Southern

Efficiency #231

2025-26: 21-16 · 13-11 conf

UNC Asheville

Efficiency #226

2025-26: 15-17 · 9-9 conf

Sat, Nov 28 · TBD

73.2

win 36%

Projected

77.4

win 64%

No line posted yet.

Model: UNCA −4.1 · total 150.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UNC Asheville 66.6, GA Southern 70.1 → 68.5 possessions

+0.3

UNC Asheville offense vs GA Southern defense

+1.2

GA Southern offense vs UNC Asheville defense

+0.9

Projected total

150.6

Axis starts at 147 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UNC Asheville offense vs GA Southern defense

+1.2

GA Southern offense vs UNC Asheville defense

−0.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

UNC Asheville by 4.1

4.1

GA Southern side ◂▸ UNC Asheville side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +4.2 against +4.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UNC Asheville.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, GA Southern is the faster team (71.0, #50 of 365) and UNC Asheville the slower (67.1, #238). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.6

model

Projected team totals

73.2 / 77.4

GA Southern / UNC Asheville

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.1#40

GA Southern

66.6#311

UNC Asheville

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashUNC Asheville

Style match: ball movement

UNC Asheville creates off the dribble (assists on 40.4% of its baskets); GA Southern breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.4% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 40.8% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageGA Southern

Where GA Southern scores: ball control

GA Southern turns it over on 14.6% of possessions (#48); UNC Asheville forces turnovers on 15.5% of opponent possessions (#252). Expect about 14.7%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageUNC Asheville

Where UNC Asheville struggles: ball control

UNC Asheville turns it over on 17.4% of possessions (#231); GA Southern forces turnovers on 18.7% of opponent possessions (#61). Expect about 18.4%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashGA Southern

Style clash: paint scoring

GA Southern gets only 38.2% of its points in the paint; UNC Asheville gives up 46.2% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).

GA Southern has the ball

OffenseUNC Asheville allowsvs D1 avg

51.4% #176

51.3% #175

+0.1 pt/100

14.6% #48

15.5% #252

+2.5 pt/100

28.8% #238

31.3% #218

-0.4 pt/100

39.6% #62

38.7% #279

+0.6 pt/100

74.3% #111

—

+0.2 pt/100

GA Southern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.9 pts/100

UNC Asheville has the ball

OffenseGA Southern allowsvs D1 avg

51.0% #194

52.3% #230

+0.5 pt/100

17.4% #231

18.7% #61

-2.0 pt/100

29.8% #211

35.2% #342

+1.2 pt/100

40.0% #60

41.4% #316

+0.8 pt/100

68.4% #317

—

-0.4 pt/100

UNC Asheville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

GA Southernoffense vsUNC Ashevilledefense

Share of shots by zone

GA Southern shoots

37.8

4.8

8.2

49.3

UNC Asheville allows

44.2

5.6

11.9

38.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.2%#264	57.3%#125	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.7%#54	36.4%#99	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.4%#100	40.9%#272	38.0%
Three	33.4%#207	32.6%#93	33.7%

UNC Ashevilleoffense vsGA Southerndefense

Share of shots by zone

UNC Asheville shoots

32.0

10.4

24.2

33.5

GA Southern allows

42.5

4.5

13.9

39.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#232	59.2%#201	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.8%#40	39.3%#167	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#67	35.9%#103	38.0%
Three	35.1%#110	34.3%#208	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

GA Southern

+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#163 of 365

Off reb %

28.8%

#238

Def reb %

64.8%

#342

Turnover %

14.6%

#48

Forced TO %

18.7%

#61

FT rate

39.6%

#62

FT allowed

41.4%

#316

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.5

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security+1.5

Forcing turnovers+1.4

Foul shots drawn+1.2

Foul shots allowed−1.6

UNC Asheville

−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#249 of 365

Off reb %

29.8%

#211

Def reb %

68.7%

#218

Turnover %

17.4%

#231

Forced TO %

15.5%

#252

FT rate

40.0%

#60

FT allowed

38.7%

#279

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.2

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security−0.4

Forcing turnovers−0.8

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed−0.9

GA Southern has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.5 (#163 of 365) to UNC Asheville’s −1.3 (#249).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

GA Southern2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted GA Southern's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Spudd Webb	G	Sr	6'4"	37-37	32.4	15.5	4.6	2.5	1.6	56.6%	31.9%	3.6	81.8%	24.6%
13	Alden Applewhite	F	Sr	6'7"	36-35	31.3	14.1	5.9	1.2	1.2	56.5%	37.4%	4.1	79.3%	22.5%
12	Tyren Moore	G	Sr	5'11"	37-37	29.4	16.1	2.9	2.6	1.8	56.1%	38.7%	8.4	83.0%	29.6%
5	Nakavieon White	F	Sr	6'7"	37-6	20.1	9.7	3.1	2.3	1.6	44.1%	32.5%	3.2	67.1%	32.0%
3	Khayri Dunn	G	So	6'1"	36-0	17.5	7.4	1.7	0.9	1.4	50.2%	34.3%	3.9	81.8%	27.0%
11	Shainen Carter	F	Sr	6'9"	34-22	17.5	4.0	3.3	0.2	0.9	53.5%	16.7%	0.2	64.3%	13.9%
24	Andres Burney	F	Sr	6'9"	35-15	15.7	4.7	3.7	0.3	0.6	66.1%	—	0.0	54.5%	15.4%
9	Jefferson Koulibaly	G	Sr	6'3"	25-16	21.1	4.4	2.8	0.7	0.6	38.8%	24.1%	2.2	57.9%	15.3%
1	Dwayne Williams Jr	G	Fr	6'6"	34-3	13.0	4.5	1.7	0.4	0.3	46.0%	30.2%	2.8	93.8%	21.0%
7	Tsvet Sotirov	F	So	6'9"	35-3	11.3	2.7	1.6	0.4	0.3	43.0%	25.3%	2.3	60.0%	16.5%
0	Jayden Williams	G	Fr	6'6"	17-11	9.0	1.2	1.2	0.4	0.1	26.0%	12.5%	0.5	47.1%	12.6%
10	Sean Van Dorn Jr	G	Fr	6'6"	5-0	5.0	3.0	0.4	0.2	0.0	50.0%	40.0%	1.0	75.0%	30.1%
4	Cade Lomas	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	23.3%
6	Amare Neal	G	Fr	5'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Cullen Schreiner	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
2	Dallas Gardner	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
34	Pavle Ridesic	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UNC Asheville2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Toyaz Solomon	F	Sr	6'9"	32-28	33.4	16.9	7.4	2.0	2.2	50.0%	36.3%	2.8	68.4%	32.1%
55	Justin Wright	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	33.0	17.1	3.1	3.0	2.3	53.8%	37.3%	3.9	78.8%	30.6%
8	DJ Patrick	G	Sr	6'6"	29-27	33.8	9.6	4.0	0.8	1.0	53.4%	39.3%	6.1	73.2%	17.0%
5	Myles Mayfield	F	Fr	6'8"	32-15	22.9	4.5	4.3	0.8	1.2	62.5%	66.7%	0.1	42.1%	13.0%
13	Daniel Thomas	F	Fr	6'8"	30-19	20.2	2.8	4.9	0.4	0.9	45.7%	0.0%	0.1	54.3%	11.1%
1	Julian Clarke	PG	So	6'1"	26-0	10.3	1.8	0.6	0.3	0.5	58.1%	40.6%	1.2	55.6%	12.0%
44	Sage Tolentino	F	Jr	7'1"	27-3	9.3	1.1	1.8	0.3	0.3	57.9%	0.0%	0.0	80.0%	7.3%
24	Corey Jones	G	Jr	6'2"	18-1	8.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.2	33.3%	14.3%	0.8	0.0%	7.9%
11	Jakel Powell	G	Fr	6'5"	10-0	12.5	3.2	1.5	0.6	0.3	40.3%	28.0%	2.5	77.8%	17.0%
23	David Hermes	F	Sr	6'10"	8-4	11.5	0.5	1.3	0.1	0.4	50.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	3.9%
7	Connor Dubsky	G	Jr	6'4"	1-0	13.0	15.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	83.3%	55.6%	9.0	—	44.6%
2	Rasheed Baldwin	G	Sr	6'5"	3-1	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	18.8%	12.5%	2.7	—	51.7%
10	Hugo Maton	G	Fr	6'2"	2-0	3.5	3.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	100.0%	66.7%	1.5	—	24.7%
14	Brayden Rivers	SF	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Mitchell Taylor	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

GA Southern2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted GA Southern's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Spudd Webb	G	Sr	6'4"	37-37	32.4	15.5	4.6	2.5	1.6	56.6%	31.9%	3.6	81.8%	24.6%
13	Alden Applewhite	F	Sr	6'7"	36-35	31.3	14.1	5.9	1.2	1.2	56.5%	37.4%	4.1	79.3%	22.5%
12	Tyren Moore	G	Sr	5'11"	37-37	29.4	16.1	2.9	2.6	1.8	56.1%	38.7%	8.4	83.0%	29.6%
5	Nakavieon White	F	Sr	6'7"	37-6	20.1	9.7	3.1	2.3	1.6	44.1%	32.5%	3.2	67.1%	32.0%
3	Khayri Dunn	G	So	6'1"	36-0	17.5	7.4	1.7	0.9	1.4	50.2%	34.3%	3.9	81.8%	27.0%
11	Shainen Carter	F	Sr	6'9"	34-22	17.5	4.0	3.3	0.2	0.9	53.5%	16.7%	0.2	64.3%	13.9%
24	Andres Burney	F	Sr	6'9"	35-15	15.7	4.7	3.7	0.3	0.6	66.1%	—	0.0	54.5%	15.4%
9	Jefferson Koulibaly	G	Sr	6'3"	25-16	21.1	4.4	2.8	0.7	0.6	38.8%	24.1%	2.2	57.9%	15.3%
1	Dwayne Williams Jr	G	Fr	6'6"	34-3	13.0	4.5	1.7	0.4	0.3	46.0%	30.2%	2.8	93.8%	21.0%
7	Tsvet Sotirov	F	So	6'9"	35-3	11.3	2.7	1.6	0.4	0.3	43.0%	25.3%	2.3	60.0%	16.5%
0	Jayden Williams	G	Fr	6'6"	17-11	9.0	1.2	1.2	0.4	0.1	26.0%	12.5%	0.5	47.1%	12.6%
10	Sean Van Dorn Jr	G	Fr	6'6"	5-0	5.0	3.0	0.4	0.2	0.0	50.0%	40.0%	1.0	75.0%	30.1%
4	Cade Lomas	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	23.3%
6	Amare Neal	G	Fr	5'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Cullen Schreiner	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
2	Dallas Gardner	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
34	Pavle Ridesic	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

GA Southern

Against the spread

Season

17-16-1

Home

5-6-1

Road

7-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +5.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

18-16

Home

6-6

Road

9-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.1

Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	TroyAdjEM #136	N	L 61–77	+5.0	L−11.0	152.5	U138	96.7	122.0	63.1
Mar 8	MarshallAdjEM #175	N	W 82–78	+3.5	W+7.5	166.5	U160	113.3	107.7	72.4
Mar 7	CoastalAdjEM #241	N	W 96–72	+1.0	W+25.0	150.5	O168	140.9	105.7	68.1
Mar 6	South AlabamaAdjEM #188	N	W 94–85	+4.5	W+13.5	148.5	O179	139.9	126.5	67.2
Mar 5	Arkansas StAdjEM #132	N	W 80–77	+7.5	W+10.5	166.0	U157	116.4	112.0	68.7
Mar 4	Old DominionAdjEM #242	N	W 88–84	−2.0	W+2.0	157.5	O172	127.4	121.6	69.1
Feb 27	MarshallAdjEM #175	A	W 99–82	+7.5	W+24.5	168.5	O181	138.1	114.4	71.7
Feb 25	James MadisonAdjEM #206	A	L 66–82	+5.5	L−10.5	153.5	U148	93.7	116.4	70.4
Feb 21	App StateAdjEM #180	A	L 74–89	+7.5	L−7.5	146.5	O163	104.1	125.2	71.1
Feb 19	Georgia StAdjEM #310	A	L 64–66	−1.0	L−3.0	155.0	U130	93.3	96.2	68.6

UNC Asheville

Against the spread

Season

14-15

Home

5-7

Road

6-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −2.5

Covered 2 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

4-8

Road

9-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +0.8

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	High PointAdjEM #50	N	L 71–75	+13.0	W+9.0	147.5	U146	104.6	110.5	67.9
Mar 6	LongwoodAdjEM #248	N	W 85–82 OT	+1.0	W+4.0	141.0	O167	111.0	107.1	76.5
Feb 28	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	H	L 75–92	−4.0	L−21.0	149.5	O167	105.9	129.9	70.8
Feb 26	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	A	W 77–71	−12.5	L−6.5	145.5	O148	124.2	114.6	62.0
Feb 21	RadfordAdjEM #245	H	W 74–73 OT	−2.0	L−1.0	149.0	U147	104.3	102.9	71.0
Feb 19	High PointAdjEM #50	A	L 48–74	+15.0	L−11.0	152.0	U122	74.6	115.0	64.4
Feb 14	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	H	L 57–58	−4.5	L−5.5	136.5	U115	90.5	92.1	63.0
Feb 12	LongwoodAdjEM #248	A	W 79–74	+2.0	W+7.0	142.5	O153	117.1	109.7	67.5
Feb 4	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	H	W 76–67	−6.5	W+2.5	140.5	O143	112.5	99.2	67.6
Jan 31	WinthropAdjEM #116	A	L 71–84	+10.0	L−3.0	150.5	O155	109.5	129.5	64.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

GA SouthernUNC Asheville

Efficiency

109.5

106.1

112.5

108.9

70.1

66.6

—

Shooting

51.4%

51.0%

52.7%

50.1%

33.4%

35.1%

74.3%

68.4%

39.6%

40.0%

Ball control & glass

14.6%

17.4%

18.7%

15.5%

28.8%

29.8%

35.2%

31.3%

9.0%

9.3%

9.2%

7.7%

Style

48.9%

33.6%

38.2%

44.9%

12.4%

10.4%

41.1%

40.4%

36.5%

24.1%

Roster

3.48

3.00

6'4.9"

6'6.3"

—

82.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

GA Southern

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted GA Southern's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UNC Asheville

Returning minutes: 82.9%Returning production: 77.5%

Lost

Kam Taylor 34.7 mpg, 18.9 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Brayden Rivers no D1 minutes last season
Mitchell Taylor no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Nov 8	2025-26	UNC Asheville 90 – 93 GA Southern

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.