CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteFreedom Hall (TN), Johnson City, TN
Morehead St
Efficiency #266
2025-26: 20-13 · 16-6 conf
vs
Charleston So
Efficiency #220
2025-26: 15-17 · 6-11 conf
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
75.5
win 43%
Projected
77.6
win 57%
No line posted yet.
Model: CHSO −2.2 · total 153.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Charleston So 71.1, Morehead St 67.0 → 69.8 possessions
+3.3
Charleston So offense vs Morehead St defense
+1.9
Morehead St offense vs Charleston So defense
−0.3
Projected total
153.1
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Charleston So offense vs Morehead St defense
+1.9
Morehead St offense vs Charleston So defense
+0.3
Charleston So by 2.2
2.2
Morehead St side ◂▸ Charleston So side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Charleston So.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Charleston So is the faster team (73.2, #10 of 365) and Morehead St the slower (66.8, #251). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
153.1
model
Projected team totals
75.5 / 77.6
Morehead St / Charleston So
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.0#288
Morehead St
71.1#13
Charleston So

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageMorehead St
Where Morehead St struggles: shooting
Morehead St shoots an effective 49.2% (#285); Charleston So allows 46.9% (#21). Expect about 47.8%, 3.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.9 points per 100 possessions.
ClashMorehead St
Style match: 3-point volume
Morehead St rarely shoots threes (30.5% of its shots); Charleston So runs teams off the line (31.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 27.1% — both habits push the same way.
ClashMorehead St
Style match: ball movement
Morehead St creates off the dribble (assists on 47.4% of its baskets); Charleston So breaks up passing offenses (assists on 39.2% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 40.7% — both habits push the same way.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Charleston So averages 73.2 possessions per 40, Morehead St 66.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 70 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversMorehead St
Morehead St protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.9% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Morehead St's offense.
GlassMorehead St
Morehead St owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.1% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Morehead St's offense.
Morehead St has the ball
OffenseCharleston So allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #285
46.9% #21
-4.9 pt/100
18.0% #272
12.8% #361
+2.3 pt/100
35.8% #27
30.3% #174
+2.3 pt/100
37.7% #109
43.3% #341
+0.8 pt/100
74.1% #125
—
+0.2 pt/100
Morehead St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.6 pts/100
Charleston So has the ball
OffenseMorehead St allowsvs D1 avg
54.1% #66
50.2% #109
+1.5 pt/100
18.5% #298
15.4% #258
-0.2 pt/100
29.4% #223
35.8% #351
+1.2 pt/100
30.5% #296
35.6% #201
-0.2 pt/100
64.8% #360
—
-0.7 pt/100
Charleston So net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Morehead Stoffense vsCharleston Sodefense
Share of shots by zone
Morehead St shoots
Charleston So allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.1%#27051.7%#1458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.0%#12244.2%#27539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.7%#8636.6%#12238.0%
Three32.0%#28131.9%#5833.7%
Charleston Sooffense vsMorehead Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Charleston So shoots
Morehead St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.1%#19354.7%#5558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)49.2%#1334.3%#4939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.4%#25634.9%#7438.0%
Three35.6%#7834.5%#22133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Morehead St
−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#234 of 365
Off reb %
35.8%
#27
Def reb %
64.2%
#351
Turnover %
18.0%
#272
Forced TO %
15.4%
#258
FT rate
37.7%
#109
FT allowed
35.6%
#201
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Charleston So
−7.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#360 of 365
Off reb %
29.4%
#223
Def reb %
69.7%
#174
Turnover %
18.5%
#298
Forced TO %
12.8%
#361
FT rate
30.5%
#296
FT allowed
43.3%
#341
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−2.7
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed−2.1

Morehead St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.0 (#234 of 365) to Charleston So’s −7.3 (#360).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Morehead St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3George MarshallGSr6'4"33-3330.413.84.51.91.751.8%37.7%5.183.4%26.5%
2Davion CunninghamGJr6'3"32-927.011.44.11.91.945.2%30.0%2.273.1%29.3%
10Chase DawsonGSo6'0"33-2525.78.31.42.81.347.1%32.9%2.679.7%21.4%
8Anouar MelloukFSr6'8"33-2424.98.04.40.81.353.3%25.7%1.158.6%20.7%
4Jon CarrollFJr6'7"33-2324.611.27.90.71.258.8%0.0%0.071.4%24.6%
0Josiah LeGreeGSo6'0"33-917.67.51.73.31.851.8%36.9%2.581.5%28.4%
5Vince Dawson IIIGFr6'6"33-1016.33.62.20.40.253.8%38.0%2.475.0%13.0%
24Tamaury RelefordCSr6'9"33-1014.05.83.90.20.864.1%—0.057.9%22.5%
22Tyonne FarrellFSo6'6"27-1413.14.02.31.00.950.0%22.2%0.752.5%22.1%
33Clayton ParkerFFr6'8"21-816.13.92.31.00.537.1%18.9%1.875.0%19.2%
12Jace WinklemanGFr6'3"5-03.02.00.00.00.255.6%33.3%1.2—35.3%
1Jacob WilsonGSr6'6"3-05.00.00.30.00.70.0%0.0%1.3—24.7%
15Jaden PriesterFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Jarvis WrightGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Kameren WrightGSo6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Morehead StCharleston So
Efficiency
107.5
106.9
112.8
109.1
67.0
71.1
—
—
Shooting
49.2%
54.1%
49.7%
54.6%
32.0%
35.6%
74.1%
64.8%
37.7%
30.5%
Ball control & glass
18.0%
18.5%
15.4%
12.8%
35.8%
29.4%
35.8%
30.3%
10.6%
10.6%
9.2%
10.0%
Style
30.5%
49.5%
45.0%
40.6%
12.1%
11.0%
47.4%
54.9%
38.1%
39.5%
Roster
2.81
3.20
6'4.7"
6'5.1"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Morehead St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Charleston So
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Charleston So's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.