CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCarver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA

Prairie View

Efficiency #303

2025-26: 19-18 · 13-9 conf

Iowa

Efficiency #22

2025-26: 24-13 · 11-11 conf

Sat, Nov 28 · TBD

64.0

win 6%

Projected

82.4

win 94%

No line posted yet.

Model: IOWA −18.4 · total 146.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Iowa 65.0, Prairie View 70.5 → 67.2 possessions

−2.5

Iowa offense vs Prairie View defense

+7.7

Prairie View offense vs Iowa defense

−6.9

Projected total

146.5

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Iowa offense vs Prairie View defense

+7.7

Prairie View offense vs Iowa defense

+6.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Iowa by 18.4

18.4

Prairie View side ◂▸ Iowa side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +18.5 against +18.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Iowa.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Prairie View is the faster team (72.4, #16 of 365) and Iowa the slower (62.8, #365). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

146.5

model

Projected team totals

64.0 / 82.4

Prairie View / Iowa

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.5#28

Prairie View

65.0#363

Iowa

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Iowa averages 62.8 possessions per 40, Prairie View 72.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageIowa

Where Iowa scores: shooting

Iowa shoots an effective 56.4% (#17); Prairie View allows 50.9% (#149). Expect about 54.0%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.9 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantagePrairie View

Where Prairie View struggles: shooting

Prairie View shoots an effective 47.4% (#330); Iowa allows 52.6% (#245). Expect about 49.7%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversPrairie View

Prairie View turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Prairie View's offense.

GlassPrairie View

Prairie View gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.2% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Prairie View's offense.

ClashIowa

Style clash: 3-point volume

Iowa takes 43.0% of its shots from three; Prairie View runs teams off the line (32.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Prairie View has the ball

OffenseIowa allowsvs D1 avg

47.4% #330

52.6% #245

-2.2 pt/100

15.8% #124

20.3% #17

-2.1 pt/100

26.7% #305

29.2% #119

-2.0 pt/100

41.6% #35

38.5% #272

+0.7 pt/100

75.6% #63

—

+0.3 pt/100

Prairie View net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.3 pts/100

Iowa has the ball

OffensePrairie View allowsvs D1 avg

56.4% #17

50.9% #149

+3.9 pt/100

15.1% #73

19.0% #50

-0.6 pt/100

30.2% #192

35.4% #344

+1.4 pt/100

35.1% #176

42.6% #333

+0.6 pt/100

76.9% #34

—

+0.4 pt/100

Iowa net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Prairie Viewoffense vsIowadefense

Share of shots by zone

Prairie View shoots

37.2

6.7

24.9

31.2

Iowa allows

37.6

6.4

16.4

39.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.1%#296	65.5%#354	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.6%#231	44.2%#273	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.8%#230	32.5%#21	38.0%
Three	32.9%#237	33.3%#141	33.7%

Iowaoffense vsPrairie Viewdefense

Share of shots by zone

Iowa shoots

38.4

7.1

11.5

43.0

Prairie View allows

44.4

8.5

14.8

32.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.8%#25	58.2%#150	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.1%#145	34.9%#56	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.0%#26	35.3%#83	38.0%
Three	35.6%#85	35.0%#247	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Prairie View

−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#211 of 365

Off reb %

26.7%

#305

Def reb %

64.6%

#344

Turnover %

15.8%

#124

Forced TO %

19.0%

#50

FT rate

41.6%

#35

FT allowed

42.6%

#333

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers+1.6

Foul shots drawn+1.7

Foul shots allowed−1.9

Iowa

+3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#51 of 365

Off reb %

30.2%

#192

Def reb %

70.8%

#119

Turnover %

15.1%

#73

Forced TO %

20.3%

#17

FT rate

35.1%

#176

FT allowed

38.5%

#272

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+2.5

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Iowa has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.2 (#51 of 365) to Prairie View’s −0.7 (#211).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Prairie View2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Prairie View's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Lance Williams	G	Sr	6'1"	37-37	35.6	10.1	3.2	3.2	1.5	50.4%	41.8%	1.8	80.1%	15.8%
13	Cory Wells	F	Sr	6'7"	37-37	33.2	13.2	7.1	2.1	2.2	44.0%	35.5%	3.3	74.2%	25.8%
2	Dontae Horne	G	Sr	6'4"	37-34	32.3	20.1	4.5	2.9	2.6	48.6%	32.0%	4.1	80.2%	35.7%
3	Tai'Reon Joseph	G	Sr	6'3"	29-23	29.9	17.7	2.3	0.9	1.7	49.0%	31.2%	7.1	76.5%	32.7%
4	Corey Dunning	F	Sr	6'9"	34-18	17.9	1.2	3.2	0.6	0.4	54.1%	0.0%	0.1	25.0%	4.9%
0	Joey Madimba	G	Sr	6'5"	27-7	17.1	8.1	3.3	0.5	0.8	50.6%	24.5%	2.0	72.1%	26.0%
25	Keeshawn Mason	F	Sr	6'8"	29-19	15.2	4.6	2.8	0.3	0.4	49.5%	33.3%	0.8	65.9%	16.8%
23	Elijah Mitchell	G	So	6'5"	28-4	12.1	2.4	1.4	0.6	0.1	45.7%	42.1%	0.7	86.7%	10.6%
10	Jannoy Thomas	G	Jr	5'11"	28-0	10.9	2.4	1.4	0.7	0.5	59.5%	0.0%	0.1	68.0%	11.6%
11	Hassane Diallo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-3	10.7	3.1	3.0	0.3	0.7	50.9%	—	0.0	60.9%	18.3%
24	Marcel Bryant	F	Jr	6'7"	13-0	12.8	6.5	2.8	0.3	1.4	57.4%	40.0%	1.2	76.7%	26.8%
5	Doug Young	G	Sr	6'0"	3-3	26.3	9.3	2.3	1.7	2.7	51.9%	36.4%	3.7	—	22.2%
34	Ryan Bolton Jr.	C	So	6'10"	13-0	5.8	1.7	2.1	0.2	0.6	83.3%	—	0.0	66.7%	14.0%
15	Seryee Lewis	F	Sr	6'9"	4-0	6.5	2.0	1.3	0.0	1.3	42.9%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.1%
1	Isaiah Foster	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	4.4	2.0	1.0	0.4	0.2	80.0%	66.7%	0.6	100.0%	15.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Iowa2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Cooper Koch	F	Fr	6'8"	37-37	28.4	7.8	3.1	1.1	0.5	58.6%	40.2%	4.4	83.3%	15.6%
11	Kael Combs	G	Jr	6'4"	37-33	26.0	6.1	2.4	2.4	1.4	54.4%	33.3%	1.5	83.7%	16.3%
6	Tavion Banks	G	Sr	6'7"	37-35	23.3	10.2	4.6	1.1	1.4	55.9%	44.2%	1.2	79.2%	26.7%
3	Cam Manyawu	F	Jr	6'9"	37-37	19.2	6.6	4.6	1.1	0.8	63.1%	—	0.0	57.5%	20.2%
23	Isaia Howard	G	So	6'5"	37-5	18.2	5.1	2.6	1.1	0.6	50.6%	28.1%	1.7	69.4%	19.0%
24	Tate Sage	G	Fr	6'7"	37-0	16.2	6.1	2.1	0.7	0.5	58.9%	38.9%	1.9	71.1%	21.3%
27	Trevin Jirak	C	Fr	6'11"	17-0	8.0	3.4	0.9	1.1	1.0	51.3%	16.7%	1.1	70.4%	30.8%
44	Joey Matteoni	F	Fr	6'9"	11-0	3.8	1.5	0.6	0.3	0.2	53.3%	—	0.0	33.3%	26.8%
10	Jacob Koch	G	So	6'2"	5-0	2.2	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	—	17.3%
5	Peyton McCollum	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
20	Trey Thompson	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Prairie View2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Prairie View's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Lance Williams	G	Sr	6'1"	37-37	35.6	10.1	3.2	3.2	1.5	50.4%	41.8%	1.8	80.1%	15.8%
13	Cory Wells	F	Sr	6'7"	37-37	33.2	13.2	7.1	2.1	2.2	44.0%	35.5%	3.3	74.2%	25.8%
2	Dontae Horne	G	Sr	6'4"	37-34	32.3	20.1	4.5	2.9	2.6	48.6%	32.0%	4.1	80.2%	35.7%
3	Tai'Reon Joseph	G	Sr	6'3"	29-23	29.9	17.7	2.3	0.9	1.7	49.0%	31.2%	7.1	76.5%	32.7%
4	Corey Dunning	F	Sr	6'9"	34-18	17.9	1.2	3.2	0.6	0.4	54.1%	0.0%	0.1	25.0%	4.9%
0	Joey Madimba	G	Sr	6'5"	27-7	17.1	8.1	3.3	0.5	0.8	50.6%	24.5%	2.0	72.1%	26.0%
25	Keeshawn Mason	F	Sr	6'8"	29-19	15.2	4.6	2.8	0.3	0.4	49.5%	33.3%	0.8	65.9%	16.8%
23	Elijah Mitchell	G	So	6'5"	28-4	12.1	2.4	1.4	0.6	0.1	45.7%	42.1%	0.7	86.7%	10.6%
10	Jannoy Thomas	G	Jr	5'11"	28-0	10.9	2.4	1.4	0.7	0.5	59.5%	0.0%	0.1	68.0%	11.6%
11	Hassane Diallo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-3	10.7	3.1	3.0	0.3	0.7	50.9%	—	0.0	60.9%	18.3%
24	Marcel Bryant	F	Jr	6'7"	13-0	12.8	6.5	2.8	0.3	1.4	57.4%	40.0%	1.2	76.7%	26.8%
5	Doug Young	G	Sr	6'0"	3-3	26.3	9.3	2.3	1.7	2.7	51.9%	36.4%	3.7	—	22.2%
34	Ryan Bolton Jr.	C	So	6'10"	13-0	5.8	1.7	2.1	0.2	0.6	83.3%	—	0.0	66.7%	14.0%
15	Seryee Lewis	F	Sr	6'9"	4-0	6.5	2.0	1.3	0.0	1.3	42.9%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.1%
1	Isaiah Foster	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	4.4	2.0	1.0	0.4	0.2	80.0%	66.7%	0.6	100.0%	15.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Prairie View

Against the spread

Season

22-11

Home

5-4

Road

11-5

Last 10

9-1

avg cover +6.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-18-1

Home

3-6

Road

9-6-1

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −9.9

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#1FloridaAdjEM #5	N	L 55–114	+35.0	L−24.0	154.0	O169	79.4	164.5	69.3
Mar 18	#16LehighAdjEM #273	N	W 67–55	+3.0	W+15.0	142.5	U122	102.8	84.4	65.2
Mar 14	SouthernAdjEM #286	N	W 72–66	+3.5	W+9.5	145.0	U138	109.3	100.2	65.9
Mar 13	Alabama A&MAdjEM #312	N	W 74–55	+2.0	W+21.0	140.5	U129	117.2	87.1	63.1
Mar 11	BethuneAdjEM #260	N	W 71–67	+5.5	W+9.5	148.0	U138	108.0	101.9	65.8
Mar 10	Alcorn StAdjEM #355	N	W 65–56	−6.0	W+3.0	142.5	U121	97.7	84.2	66.5
Mar 5	Texas SouthernAdjEM #321	A	W 70–59	+1.5	W+12.5	153.0	U129	104.4	88.0	67.0
Feb 28	Alcorn StAdjEM #355	H	W 72–51	−4.5	W+16.5	150.0	U123	102.3	72.5	70.4
Feb 26	Jackson StAdjEM #353	H	W 85–76 OT	−4.5	W+4.5	161.5	U161	114.2	102.1	74.4
Feb 21	AR-Pine BluffAdjEM #323	A	L 82–84	+3.5	W+1.5	158.0	O166	120.8	123.7	67.9

Iowa

Against the spread

Season

21-16

Home

11-7

Road

5-6

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +1.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-15-2

Home

9-8-1

Road

7-4

Last 10

4-5-1

avg vs total +1.1

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 28	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	L 59–71	+7.0	L−5.0	138.5	U130	107.6	129.5	54.8
Mar 26	#4NebraskaAdjEM #17	N	W 77–71	+1.5	W+7.5	131.0	O148	127.4	117.4	60.5
Mar 22	#1FloridaAdjEM #5	N	W 73–72	+10.0	W+11.0	145.0	P145	119.4	117.8	61.1
Mar 20	#8ClemsonAdjEM #35	N	W 67–61	−1.5	W+4.5	131.0	U128	124.7	113.6	53.7
Mar 12	Ohio StateAdjEM #31	N	L 69–72	−1.5	L−4.5	140.5	O141	118.9	124.1	58.0
Mar 11	MarylandAdjEM #198	N	W 75–64	−12.0	L−1.0	134.5	O139	114.1	97.4	65.7
Mar 8	#9NebraskaAdjEM #17	A	L 75–84 OT	+5.0	L−4.0	136.5	O159	100.7	112.8	74.5
Mar 5	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	H	L 68–71	+9.0	W+6.0	147.0	U139	104.5	109.1	65.1
Feb 28	Penn StateAdjEM #194	A	L 69–71	−9.0	L−11.0	144.0	U140	116.1	119.5	59.4
Feb 25	Ohio StateAdjEM #31	H	W 74–57	−6.0	W+11.0	140.5	U131	126.4	97.4	58.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Prairie ViewIowa

Efficiency

103.2

117.6

110.8

103.4

70.5

65.0

—

Shooting

47.4%

56.4%

46.5%

58.6%

32.9%

35.6%

75.6%

76.9%

41.6%

35.1%

Ball control & glass

15.8%

15.1%

19.0%

20.3%

26.7%

30.2%

35.4%

29.2%

8.8%

8.1%

8.2%

8.8%

Style

30.6%

43.0%

41.8%

43.9%

17.7%

9.6%

43.2%

57.7%

24.1%

32.9%

Roster

3.78

2.31

6'4.6"

6'6.8"

—

68.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Prairie View

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Prairie View's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Iowa

Returning minutes: 68.0%Returning production: 61.3%

Lost

Bennett Stirtz 37.8 mpg, 19.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Alvaro Folgueiras 20.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg · transferred to Louisville
Brendan Hausen 5.8 mpg, 2.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Peyton McCollum no D1 minutes last season
Trey Thompson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 68% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.