CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceRobins Center, Richmond, VA

VMI

Efficiency #361

2025-26: 6-26 · 1-18 conf

Richmond

Efficiency #150

2025-26: 15-17 · 5-14 conf

Sat, Nov 28 · TBD

67.6

win 8%

Projected

83.6

win 92%

No line posted yet.

Model: RICH −15.9 · total 151.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Richmond 68.5, VMI 67.9 → 68.1 possessions

−0.5

Richmond offense vs VMI defense

+7.7

VMI offense vs Richmond defense

−4.3

Projected total

151.2

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Richmond offense vs VMI defense

+7.7

VMI offense vs Richmond defense

+4.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Richmond by 15.9

15.9

VMI side ◂▸ Richmond side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.1 against a projected 151.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Richmond.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Richmond is the faster team (68.5, #172 of 365) and VMI the slower (67.6, #219). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.2

model

Projected team totals

67.6 / 83.6

VMI / Richmond

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.9#215

VMI

68.5#169

Richmond

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageRichmond

Where Richmond scores: shooting

Richmond shoots an effective 52.7% (#115); VMI allows 57.0% (#357). Expect about 55.0%, 3.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.3 points per 100 possessions.

ClashVMI

Style match: 3-point volume

VMI takes 53.6% of its shots from three; Richmond lets opponents take 45.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 54.7% — both habits push the same way.

TurnoversRichmond

Richmond protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.7% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for Richmond's offense.

AdvantageVMI

Where VMI struggles: shooting

VMI shoots an effective 47.6% (#325); Richmond allows 52.0% (#216). Expect about 49.5%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Richmond, VMI's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect VMI at about 54.7% of its shots from three, Richmond about 46.5%.

GlassVMI

VMI gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.3% is worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions against VMI's offense.

VMI has the ball

OffenseRichmond allowsvs D1 avg

47.6% #325

52.0% #216

-2.5 pt/100

15.3% #88

17.7% #110

+0.3 pt/100

25.6% #330

31.0% #200

-1.9 pt/100

30.6% #293

35.1% #181

-0.3 pt/100

72.2% #201

—

-0.0 pt/100

VMI net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.4 pts/100

Richmond has the ball

OffenseVMI allowsvs D1 avg

52.7% #115

57.0% #357

+5.3 pt/100

14.3% #33

15.7% #241

+2.6 pt/100

25.0% #340

37.2% #360

-0.3 pt/100

36.9% #133

34.6% #168

+0.1 pt/100

75.2% #76

—

+0.2 pt/100

Richmond net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

VMIoffense vsRichmonddefense

Share of shots by zone

VMI shoots

32.1

4.2

9.7

53.9

Richmond allows

33.3

7.3

14.2

45.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.5%#327	64.5%#345	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	19.7%#365	39.5%#172	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.6%#246	39.8%#236	38.0%
Three	31.5%#306	32.7%#103	33.7%

Richmondoffense vsVMIdefense

Share of shots by zone

Richmond shoots

29.1

5.8

22.7

42.5

VMI allows

34.3

4.7

14.4

46.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.1%#116	66.0%#359	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.6%#230	49.3%#351	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.7%#87	44.7%#347	38.0%
Three	37.1%#28	36.5%#327	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

VMI

−4.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#337 of 365

Off reb %

25.6%

#330

Def reb %

62.8%

#360

Turnover %

15.3%

#88

Forced TO %

15.7%

#241

FT rate

30.6%

#293

FT allowed

34.6%

#168

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.5

Defensive rebounding−2.1

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−0.7

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+0.2

Richmond

+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#135 of 365

Off reb %

25.0%

#340

Def reb %

69.0%

#200

Turnover %

14.3%

#33

Forced TO %

17.7%

#110

FT rate

36.9%

#133

FT allowed

35.1%

#181

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn+0.5

Foul shots allowed0.0

Richmond has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.0 (#135 of 365) to VMI’s −4.4 (#337).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

VMI2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
44	TJ Johnson	F	Jr	6'7"	31-31	35.6	18.3	7.2	1.4	1.6	52.7%	35.5%	10.0	81.9%	29.0%
4	Linus Holmstrom	G	So	6'3"	31-29	27.2	11.4	2.5	1.7	1.4	58.0%	39.4%	6.4	76.2%	23.3%
2	Mario Tatum Jr.	G	Fr	6'3"	31-8	25.9	8.5	2.0	1.4	0.6	45.3%	27.3%	3.2	64.6%	21.1%
0	Cal Liston	F	So	6'5"	32-24	23.0	5.3	3.2	1.0	0.7	50.3%	33.3%	3.7	72.0%	14.8%
5	AJ Clark	G	Jr	6'4"	22-22	26.5	6.6	6.0	1.6	1.1	50.4%	37.0%	1.2	66.7%	16.2%
6	Kaden Stuckey	F	So	6'8"	28-7	18.7	4.4	4.9	0.5	1.1	35.3%	0.0%	0.5	62.9%	20.2%
14	Walker Andrews	G	So	6'1"	29-3	13.4	5.9	0.9	0.7	0.3	49.0%	33.3%	3.4	84.4%	24.9%
7	Jaylen Pazon	G	So	6'5"	20-1	13.4	6.7	2.2	0.7	1.1	44.9%	17.6%	1.7	71.1%	33.3%
9	Alexander Daushvili	F	Fr	6'8"	5-3	17.2	6.8	4.2	1.0	0.6	41.2%	0.0%	1.4	83.3%	21.0%
3	Mason Hagedorn	F	So	6'9"	7-1	9.0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.1	30.4%	36.4%	1.6	—	20.6%
10	Branford Edmonds III	G	So	6'2"	5-0	5.6	2.6	1.6	0.0	0.2	65.0%	37.5%	1.6	—	19.9%
42	Mason Lawson	G	So	6'1"	4-0	1.5	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.3	150.0%	100.0%	0.3	—	20.8%
1	Rickey Bradley Jr.	G	Sr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
32	Robert Peters	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Richmond2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
6	AJ Lopez	G	Sr	6'5"	32-32	25.8	13.4	2.2	1.3	0.9	54.1%	39.4%	3.3	86.2%	26.7%
3	Aiden Argabright	G	Fr	5'11"	31-3	23.5	10.8	2.0	2.0	0.8	49.2%	35.0%	2.6	82.9%	24.3%
21	Mike Walz	C	Sr	6'11"	32-32	21.2	7.9	6.4	2.3	1.5	55.9%	38.5%	2.4	75.6%	22.8%
5	Collin Tanner	G	Jr	6'6"	29-22	18.6	5.9	3.2	0.8	0.6	50.7%	29.2%	2.2	75.0%	19.4%
2	Jaden Daughtry	F	Jr	6'7"	31-4	15.7	8.9	3.0	0.6	1.4	57.8%	45.3%	1.7	59.7%	33.5%
12	David Thomas	G	Jr	6'2"	31-7	14.1	4.2	1.1	0.5	0.5	55.4%	42.1%	1.8	87.5%	17.3%
33	Apostolos Roumoglou	F	Sr	6'8"	27-0	15.4	2.9	3.3	1.1	0.4	43.0%	22.6%	2.3	66.7%	13.6%
9	Jonathan Beagle	F	Sr	6'10"	24-0	14.9	6.0	4.6	1.5	1.0	54.3%	0.0%	0.1	61.1%	24.1%
11	Will Harper III	G	Fr	6'4"	13-0	11.2	3.6	1.7	0.6	0.5	39.7%	29.4%	1.3	84.2%	22.7%
35	Bryson McGlothin	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	4.3	1.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	30.0%	25.0%	1.3	50.0%	27.1%
15	Kirby Mooney	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	4.0	0.7	0.7	0.3	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	27.6%
8	Donovan Richardson	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
16	Dylan Homenick	C	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

VMI2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
44	TJ Johnson	F	Jr	6'7"	31-31	35.6	18.3	7.2	1.4	1.6	52.7%	35.5%	10.0	81.9%	29.0%
4	Linus Holmstrom	G	So	6'3"	31-29	27.2	11.4	2.5	1.7	1.4	58.0%	39.4%	6.4	76.2%	23.3%
2	Mario Tatum Jr.	G	Fr	6'3"	31-8	25.9	8.5	2.0	1.4	0.6	45.3%	27.3%	3.2	64.6%	21.1%
0	Cal Liston	F	So	6'5"	32-24	23.0	5.3	3.2	1.0	0.7	50.3%	33.3%	3.7	72.0%	14.8%
5	AJ Clark	G	Jr	6'4"	22-22	26.5	6.6	6.0	1.6	1.1	50.4%	37.0%	1.2	66.7%	16.2%
6	Kaden Stuckey	F	So	6'8"	28-7	18.7	4.4	4.9	0.5	1.1	35.3%	0.0%	0.5	62.9%	20.2%
14	Walker Andrews	G	So	6'1"	29-3	13.4	5.9	0.9	0.7	0.3	49.0%	33.3%	3.4	84.4%	24.9%
7	Jaylen Pazon	G	So	6'5"	20-1	13.4	6.7	2.2	0.7	1.1	44.9%	17.6%	1.7	71.1%	33.3%
9	Alexander Daushvili	F	Fr	6'8"	5-3	17.2	6.8	4.2	1.0	0.6	41.2%	0.0%	1.4	83.3%	21.0%
3	Mason Hagedorn	F	So	6'9"	7-1	9.0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.1	30.4%	36.4%	1.6	—	20.6%
10	Branford Edmonds III	G	So	6'2"	5-0	5.6	2.6	1.6	0.0	0.2	65.0%	37.5%	1.6	—	19.9%
42	Mason Lawson	G	So	6'1"	4-0	1.5	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.3	150.0%	100.0%	0.3	—	20.8%
1	Rickey Bradley Jr.	G	Sr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
32	Robert Peters	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

VMI

Against the spread

Season

8-19-2

Home

2-9

Road

6-8-1

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 6 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

13-16

Home

6-5

Road

7-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +4.2

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as an underdogOver in 4 of 6 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	N	L 70–84	+6.5	L−7.5	156.0	U154	103.8	124.6	67.4
Feb 28	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	A	L 79–86	+11.5	W+4.5	155.0	O165	124.6	135.7	63.4
Feb 26	SamfordAdjEM #202	A	L 61–80	+17.0	L−2.0	156.0	U141	93.0	122.0	65.6
Feb 21	W CarolinaAdjEM #217	H	L 62–81	+9.0	L−10.0	155.0	U143	98.2	128.3	63.2
Feb 18	WoffordAdjEM #235	A	L 76–82	+13.5	W+7.5	158.5	U158	110.3	119.0	68.9
Feb 14	FurmanAdjEM #163	H	L 72–90	+12.0	L−6.0	146.5	O162	101.4	126.8	71.0
Feb 11	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	A	L 71–92	+8.5	L−12.5	151.0	O163	102.7	133.0	69.2
Feb 7	ETSUAdjEM #110	H	L 70–87	+14.5	L−2.5	144.0	O157	99.1	123.2	70.6
Feb 4	WoffordAdjEM #235	H	L 67–81	+9.0	L−5.0	150.0	U148	98.9	119.6	67.7
Jan 31	MercerAdjEM #161	A	L 81–95	+18.0	W+4.0	153.5	O176	111.4	130.7	72.7

Richmond

Against the spread

Season

15-15-1

Home

8-8-1

Road

7-4

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover −2.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

14-17

Home

8-9

Road

5-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +2.0

Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	N	L 67–75	−4.5	L−12.5	141.5	O142	107.2	120.0	62.5
Mar 7	DuquesneAdjEM #131	A	L 77–79	+4.5	W+2.5	148.0	O156	116.8	119.9	65.9
Mar 3	DaytonAdjEM #62	H	L 60–65	+5.0	P0.0	145.0	U125	97.0	105.1	61.8
Feb 28	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	A	L 66–69	−2.5	L−5.5	146.5	U135	91.7	95.9	72.0
Feb 21	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	H	W 99–94	−1.0	W+4.0	148.5	O193	134.8	128.0	73.4
Feb 18	DavidsonAdjEM #112	A	L 63–65	+5.0	W+3.0	140.5	U128	98.8	101.9	63.8
Feb 14	VCUAdjEM #39	H	L 67–78	+8.5	L−2.5	156.0	U145	95.9	111.6	69.9
Feb 10	George MasonAdjEM #83	H	W 82–70	+3.0	W+15.0	140.0	O152	116.9	99.8	70.1
Feb 7	Rhode IslandAdjEM #137	A	L 77–82	+6.0	W+1.0	141.0	O159	113.2	120.5	68.0
Jan 31	DavidsonAdjEM #112	H	L 54–79	−2.0	L−27.0	140.5	U133	93.5	136.8	57.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

VMIRichmond

Efficiency

101.8

110.1

118.2

108.9

67.9

68.5

—

Shooting

47.6%

52.7%

47.9%

50.5%

31.5%

37.1%

72.2%

75.2%

30.6%

36.9%

Ball control & glass

15.3%

14.3%

15.7%

17.7%

25.6%

25.0%

37.2%

31.0%

8.6%

7.8%

10.5%

7.7%

Style

53.6%

42.6%

32.8%

34.0%

11.0%

16.1%

50.7%

54.5%

28.4%

43.4%

Roster

2.15

3.10

6'4.8"

6'5.6"

84.9%

72.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

VMI

Returning minutes: 84.9%Returning production: 84.7%

Lost

Tan Yildizoglu 30.2 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Siena

Added

Robert Peters no D1 minutes last season
Rickey Bradley Jr. no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Richmond

Returning minutes: 72.2%Returning production: 78.0%

Lost

Will Johnston 27.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mikkel Tyne 18.4 mpg, 6.0 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Jaylen Robinson 10.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart

Added

Dylan Homenick no D1 minutes last season
Donovan Richardson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Nov 19	2025-26	VMI 54 – 87 Richmond

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.