CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLenovo Center, Raleigh, NC
Elon
Efficiency #228
2025-26: 14-18 · 6-13 conf
@
NC State
Efficiency #34
2025-26: 20-14 · 11-9 conf
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
71.9
win 11%
Projected
85.9
win 89%
No line posted yet.
Model: NCSU −14.0 · total 157.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: NC State 69.4, Elon 68.0 → 69.1 possessions
+1.7
NC State offense vs Elon defense
+9.0
Elon offense vs NC State defense
−1.1
Projected total
157.8
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
NC State offense vs Elon defense
+9.0
Elon offense vs NC State defense
+1.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
NC State by 14.0
14.0
Elon side ◂▸ NC State side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +14.1 against +14.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help NC State.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, NC State is the faster team (69.5, #112 of 365) and Elon the slower (67.9, #205). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
157.8
model
Projected team totals
71.9 / 85.9
Elon / NC State
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#209
Elon
69.4#88
NC State
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageNC State
Where NC State scores: shooting
NC State shoots an effective 55.0% (#35); Elon allows 54.0% (#300). Expect about 54.8%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.0 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversNC State
NC State protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.4% is worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions for NC State's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (NC State, Elon's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Elon at about 46.0% of its shots from three, NC State about 45.9%.
ClashElon
Style match: 3-point volume
Elon takes 43.2% of its shots from three; NC State lets opponents take 44.9% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 46.0% — both habits push the same way.
ClashNC State
Style match: 3-point volume
NC State takes 43.4% of its shots from three; Elon lets opponents take 44.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.9% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageElon
Where Elon scores: shooting
Elon shoots an effective 52.2% (#137); NC State allows 52.7% (#256). Expect about 52.5%, 1.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.
Elon has the ball
OffenseNC State allowsvs D1 avg
52.2% #137
52.7% #256
+1.8 pt/100
15.9% #134
18.2% #90
-0.5 pt/100
32.2% #116
30.5% #181
+0.8 pt/100
33.5% #222
36.9% #235
+0.1 pt/100
71.4% #225
—
-0.1 pt/100
Elon net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.1 pts/100
NC State has the ball
OffenseElon allowsvs D1 avg
55.0% #35
54.0% #300
+5.0 pt/100
13.1% #8
16.4% #193
+2.9 pt/100
28.2% #258
33.5% #307
-0.0 pt/100
35.1% #175
34.6% #169
-0.0 pt/100
76.8% #36
—
+0.4 pt/100
NC State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersElonoffense vsNC Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Elon shoots
44.9
3.1
9.2
42.8
NC State allows
38.3
5.2
11.9
44.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.0%#198 | 58.4%#160 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.5%#256 | 37.2%#117 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 29.9%#354 | 37.2%#137 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.3%#154 | 35.5%#281 | 33.7% |
NC Stateoffense vsElondefense
Share of shots by zone
NC State shoots
39.1
5.5
13.0
42.4
Elon allows
35.8
5.7
14.1
44.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.4%#148 | 61.8%#297 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 28.4%#354 | 42.7%#241 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.6%#273 | 35.1%#82 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.8%#6 | 36.5%#328 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersElon
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#186 of 365
Off reb %
32.2%
#116
Def reb %
66.5%
#307
Turnover %
15.9%
#134
Forced TO %
16.4%
#193
FT rate
33.5%
#222
FT allowed
34.6%
#169
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.9
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+0.2
NC State
+2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#80 of 365
Off reb %
28.2%
#258
Def reb %
69.5%
#181
Turnover %
13.1%
#8
Forced TO %
18.2%
#90
FT rate
35.1%
#175
FT allowed
36.9%
#235
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security+2.5
Forcing turnovers+1.0
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−0.4
NC State has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.4 (#80 of 365) to Elon’s −0.2 (#186).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Elon2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Elon's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chandler Cuthrell | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 28.2 | 19.8 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 51.9% | 25.5% | 3.3 | 72.9% | 40.7% | |
| 11 | Randall Pettus II | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-31 | 27.3 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 48.7% | 35.4% | 5.9 | 76.2% | 26.7% | |
| 0 | Bryson Cokley | G | So | 6'6" | 32-12 | 27.0 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 55.7% | 39.2% | 4.9 | 80.0% | 25.1% | |
| 12 | Isaac Harrell | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-31 | 25.8 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 56.3% | 35.7% | 3.5 | 72.1% | 15.4% | |
| 3 | Ja'Juan Carr | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-31 | 25.1 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 48.5% | 30.0% | 1.9 | 71.4% | 19.9% | |
| 6 | Kacper Klaczek | F | Sr | 6'8" | 24-22 | 28.0 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 61.0% | 44.9% | 2.9 | 64.2% | 23.1% | |
| 22 | Ned Hull | G | So | 6'3" | 32-0 | 17.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 53.2% | 35.8% | 3.0 | 86.7% | 15.7% | |
| 8 | DeMarco Johnson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 15.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 50.0% | 21.7% | 0.8 | 57.1% | 15.6% | |
| 5 | Caleb Middleton | C | So | 6'11" | 29-0 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 55.6% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 17.6% | |
| 33 | Bryson Spell | F | Sr | 6'9" | 23-1 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 83.3% | 17.4% | |
| 4 | Iker Garmendia | F | Fr | 6'9" | 15-0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.7 | 64.3% | 26.5% | |
| 13 | Savion Taylor | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 42.7% | |
| 25 | Alex Olander | F | So | 6'4" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 14 | Alex Brabec | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Austin Williams | G | Sr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Trey O'Neil | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
NC State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darrion Williams | F | Sr | 6'6" | 33-33 | 30.1 | 14.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 51.1% | 40.4% | 5.8 | 77.3% | 28.0% | |
| 2 | Paul McNeil Jr. | G | So | 6'5" | 34-32 | 28.7 | 13.8 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 59.7% | 42.7% | 7.2 | 82.4% | 22.7% | |
| 22 | Ven-Allen Lubin | F | Sr | 6'9" | 34-34 | 28.1 | 13.6 | 7.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 67.4% | 27.3% | 0.3 | 74.3% | 21.8% | |
| 21 | Terrance Arceneaux | G | Jr | 6'6" | 30-0 | 15.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 48.5% | 32.6% | 1.5 | 77.3% | 14.8% | |
| 13 | Musa Sagnia | F | Fr | 6'10" | 34-1 | 12.4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 60.5% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 45.5% | 11.3% | |
| 7 | Alyn Breed | G | Sr | 6'3" | 21-7 | 14.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 47.3% | 34.5% | 1.4 | 89.3% | 17.7% | |
| 15 | Jerry Deng | F | Jr | 6'9" | 8-0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 46.7% | 32.4% | 4.3 | 85.7% | 28.9% | |
| 12 | Scottie Ebube | C | Sr | 6'10" | 17-1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 88.9% | — | 0.0 | 23.1% | 17.5% | |
| 0 | Jordan Snell | G | Sr | 6'3" | 8-1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 37.5% | 28.6% | 0.9 | — | 23.8% | |
| 45 | Colt Langdon | F | Fr | 6'7" | 6-0 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 100.0% | 25.8% | |
| 10 | Jayme Kontuniemi | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Zymicah Wilkins | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Elon2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Elon's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chandler Cuthrell | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 28.2 | 19.8 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 51.9% | 25.5% | 3.3 | 72.9% | 40.7% | |
| 11 | Randall Pettus II | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-31 | 27.3 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 48.7% | 35.4% | 5.9 | 76.2% | 26.7% | |
| 0 | Bryson Cokley | G | So | 6'6" | 32-12 | 27.0 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 55.7% | 39.2% | 4.9 | 80.0% | 25.1% | |
| 12 | Isaac Harrell | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-31 | 25.8 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 56.3% | 35.7% | 3.5 | 72.1% | 15.4% | |
| 3 | Ja'Juan Carr | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-31 | 25.1 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 48.5% | 30.0% | 1.9 | 71.4% | 19.9% | |
| 6 | Kacper Klaczek | F | Sr | 6'8" | 24-22 | 28.0 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 61.0% | 44.9% | 2.9 | 64.2% | 23.1% | |
| 22 | Ned Hull | G | So | 6'3" | 32-0 | 17.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 53.2% | 35.8% | 3.0 | 86.7% | 15.7% | |
| 8 | DeMarco Johnson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 15.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 50.0% | 21.7% | 0.8 | 57.1% | 15.6% | |
| 5 | Caleb Middleton | C | So | 6'11" | 29-0 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 55.6% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 17.6% | |
| 33 | Bryson Spell | F | Sr | 6'9" | 23-1 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 83.3% | 17.4% | |
| 4 | Iker Garmendia | F | Fr | 6'9" | 15-0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.7 | 64.3% | 26.5% | |
| 13 | Savion Taylor | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 42.7% | |
| 25 | Alex Olander | F | So | 6'4" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 14 | Alex Brabec | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Austin Williams | G | Sr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Trey O'Neil | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Elon
Against the spread
Season
11-19
Home
3-11
Road
8-7
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −7.7
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 0 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
9-5
Road
7-8
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −6.3
Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | William & Mary | N | L 62–72 | +5.5 | L−4.5 | 163.5 | U134 | 91.6 | 106.4 | 67.7 |
| Mar 3 | UNC Wilmington | H | L 57–76 | +5.0 | L−14.0 | 145.5 | U133 | 85.2 | 113.6 | 66.9 |
| Feb 28 | Monmouth | A | L 57–73 | +3.5 | L−12.5 | 153.0 | U130 | 90.3 | 115.7 | 63.1 |
| Feb 26 | Towson | A | L 56–58 | +5.5 | W+3.5 | 144.0 | U114 | 90.9 | 94.1 | 61.6 |
| Feb 21 | NC A&T | H | L 82–102 | −8.0 | L−28.0 | 152.5 | O184 | 121.1 | 150.6 | 67.7 |
| Feb 14 | William & Mary | A | W 81–78 | +8.0 | W+11.0 | 165.5 | U159 | 113.8 | 109.6 | 71.2 |
| Feb 12 | UNC Wilmington | A | L 54–65 | +8.0 | L−3.0 | 149.5 | U119 | 89.7 | 108.0 | 60.2 |
| Feb 7 | Drexel | H | L 77–82 | −5.0 | L−10.0 | 138.0 | O159 | 113.9 | 121.3 | 67.6 |
| Feb 5 | Hampton | A | L 79–87 2OT | −1.5 | L−9.5 | 142.5 | O166 | 100.1 | 110.2 | 78.9 |
| Jan 31 | Stony Brook | H | L 68–72 | −5.5 | L−9.5 | 147.5 | U140 | 98.5 | 104.3 | 69.0 |
NC State
Against the spread
Season
15-17-2
Home
8-9
Road
4-5-1
Last 10
2-7-1
avg cover −9.2
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
21-13
Home
9-8
Road
8-2
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +8.7
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17 | #11Texas | N | L 66–68 | −1.0 | L−3.0 | 157.5 | U134 | 97.5 | 100.5 | 67.7 |
| Mar 12 | #10Virginia | N | L 74–81 | +7.0 | P0.0 | 152.0 | O155 | 108.0 | 118.2 | 68.5 |
| Mar 11 | Pitt | N | W 98–88 | −9.0 | W+1.0 | 144.5 | O186 | 148.8 | 133.6 | 65.8 |
| Mar 7 | Stanford | H | L 84–85 | −9.0 | L−10.0 | 152.5 | O169 | 122.3 | 123.7 | 68.7 |
| Mar 2 | #1Duke | H | L 64–93 | +9.0 | L−20.0 | 150.5 | O157 | 99.3 | 144.3 | 64.5 |
| Feb 28 | Notre Dame | A | L 90–96 OT | −6.5 | L−12.5 | 155.0 | O186 | 126.1 | 134.5 | 71.4 |
| Feb 24 | #11Virginia | A | L 61–90 | +6.0 | L−23.0 | 152.0 | U151 | 86.7 | 128.0 | 70.3 |
| Feb 17 | #16North Carolina | H | W 82–58 | −7.5 | W+16.5 | 155.5 | U140 | 127.6 | 90.2 | 64.3 |
| Feb 14 | Miami | H | L 76–77 | −5.5 | L−6.5 | 158.0 | U153 | 117.3 | 118.8 | 64.8 |
| Feb 9 | #24Louisville | A | L 77–118 | +7.0 | L−34.0 | 161.5 | O195 | 95.7 | 146.7 | 80.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeElonNC State
Efficiency
109.8
117.3
112.7
105.5
68.0
69.4
—
—
Shooting
52.2%
55.0%
52.8%
52.6%
34.3%
38.8%
71.4%
76.8%
33.5%
35.1%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
13.1%
16.4%
18.2%
32.2%
28.2%
33.5%
30.5%
9.4%
7.4%
11.2%
9.4%
Style
43.2%
43.4%
44.1%
39.8%
11.6%
12.9%
54.6%
54.6%
33.3%
31.0%
Roster
2.96
3.11
6'5.8"
6'6.7"
—
63.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputElon
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Elon's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
NC State
Returning minutes: 63.1%Returning production: 61.6%
Lost
- Quadir Copeland 28.9 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tre Holloman 24.0 mpg, 8.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Matt Able 21.7 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to North Carolina
Added
- Zymicah Wilkins no D1 minutes last season
- Jayme Kontuniemi no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 63% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.