CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceSwinney Center, Kansas City, MO
SE Missouri
Efficiency #209
2025-26: 20-13 · 15-7 conf
@
Kansas City
Efficiency #359
2025-26: 4-27 · 1-16 conf
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
76.6
win 71%
Projected
70.2
win 29%
No line posted yet.
Model: SEMO −6.4 · total 146.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Kansas City 69.9, SE Missouri 69.4 → 71.0 possessions
+5.8
Kansas City offense vs SE Missouri defense
−8.9
SE Missouri offense vs Kansas City defense
+1.6
Projected total
146.8
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Kansas City offense vs SE Missouri defense
−8.9
SE Missouri offense vs Kansas City defense
−1.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
SE Missouri by 6.4
6.4
SE Missouri side ◂▸ Kansas City side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 146.7 against a projected 146.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kansas City.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kansas City is the faster team (71.4, #35 of 365) and SE Missouri the slower (69.9, #98). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.8
model
Projected team totals
76.6 / 70.2
SE Missouri / Kansas City
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.4#92
SE Missouri
69.9#54
Kansas City
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageKansas City
Where Kansas City struggles: shooting
Kansas City shoots an effective 45.7% (#352); SE Missouri allows 48.8% (#57). Expect about 46.8%, 4.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.4 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
Kansas City averages 71.4 possessions per 40, SE Missouri 69.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashKansas City
Style match: ball movement
Kansas City creates off the dribble (assists on 46.2% of its baskets); SE Missouri breaks up passing offenses (assists on 43.9% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 42.9% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageSE Missouri
Where SE Missouri scores: shooting
SE Missouri shoots an effective 49.8% (#244); Kansas City allows 56.3% (#348). Expect about 53.0%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
GlassKansas City
Kansas City gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.5% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against Kansas City's offense.
TurnoversKansas City
Kansas City turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.4% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Kansas City's offense.
SE Missouri has the ball
OffenseKansas City allowsvs D1 avg
49.8% #244
56.3% #348
+2.4 pt/100
16.9% #192
16.4% #192
+0.2 pt/100
29.6% #218
35.9% #353
+1.3 pt/100
38.8% #84
31.4% #94
-0.0 pt/100
69.5% #281
—
-0.3 pt/100
SE Missouri net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.7 pts/100
Kansas City has the ball
OffenseSE Missouri allowsvs D1 avg
45.7% #352
48.8% #57
-6.4 pt/100
18.2% #281
18.1% #91
-2.0 pt/100
26.4% #314
28.2% #76
-2.4 pt/100
29.2% #330
48.0% #361
+0.6 pt/100
66.2% #352
—
-0.5 pt/100
Kansas City net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -10.7 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersSE Missourioffense vsKansas Citydefense
Share of shots by zone
SE Missouri shoots
43.5
6.5
14.5
35.5
Kansas City allows
43.0
5.0
13.9
38.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.7%#168 | 63.1%#326 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 34.7%#292 | 39.7%#185 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.8%#295 | 40.9%#273 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.9%#324 | 37.6%#350 | 33.7% |
Kansas Cityoffense vsSE Missouridefense
Share of shots by zone
Kansas City shoots
34.3
9.1
19.7
37.0
SE Missouri allows
40.5
9.7
17.0
32.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.7%#322 | 53.5%#30 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.3%#263 | 36.6%#104 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.1%#260 | 41.9%#299 | 38.0% |
| Three | 28.4%#360 | 33.1%#130 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSE Missouri
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#224 of 365
Off reb %
29.6%
#218
Def reb %
71.8%
#76
Turnover %
16.9%
#192
Forced TO %
18.1%
#91
FT rate
38.8%
#84
FT allowed
48.0%
#361
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+1.0
Foul shots drawn+1.0
Foul shots allowed−3.3
Kansas City
−4.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#344 of 365
Off reb %
26.4%
#314
Def reb %
64.1%
#353
Turnover %
18.2%
#281
Forced TO %
16.4%
#192
FT rate
29.2%
#330
FT allowed
31.4%
#94
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed+1.0
SE Missouri has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.9 (#224 of 365) to Kansas City’s −4.7 (#344).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
SE Missouri2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted SE Missouri's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BJ Ward | G | Jr | 6'0" | 33-33 | 30.2 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 46.4% | 35.0% | 4.3 | 81.0% | 24.3% | |
| 44 | Braxton Stacker | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 28.2 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 48.7% | 31.9% | 4.4 | 80.3% | 24.6% | |
| 10 | Luke Almodovar | G | Jr | 6'3" | 33-23 | 27.0 | 14.1 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 51.5% | 31.6% | 6.3 | 76.0% | 28.8% | |
| 15 | Brendan Terry | F | Sr | 6'7" | 33-24 | 25.1 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 55.8% | 34.6% | 0.8 | 61.5% | 26.6% | |
| 55 | Marqueas Bell | G | Jr | 6'3" | 33-10 | 22.1 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 53.5% | 30.8% | 0.4 | 73.9% | 23.6% | |
| 7 | Landren Blocker | G | So | 6'5" | 33-28 | 17.8 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 54.5% | 41.7% | 0.7 | 48.2% | 18.1% | |
| 4 | Troy Cole Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-4 | 13.5 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 43.4% | 7.0% | 1.3 | 68.3% | 21.6% | |
| 18 | David Idada | C | Sr | 7'0" | 33-10 | 10.7 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 54.8% | — | 0.0 | 54.3% | 10.8% | |
| 1 | PJ Farmer | G | Fr | 6'2" | 32-0 | 9.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 43.1% | 10.5% | 0.6 | 58.8% | 17.1% | |
| 9 | Blaize Sagna | G | Sr | 6'3" | 27-0 | 8.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 41.9% | 25.0% | 1.0 | 90.0% | 11.7% | |
| 30 | Elliot Lowndes | F | Sr | 7'0" | 32-0 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 58.5% | 34.3% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 19.3% | |
| 25 | Jay Reynolds | G | Fr | 6'3" | 10-0 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 28.9% | 20.0% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 22.8% | |
| 3 | Trace Sadler | F | Fr | 7'1" | 12-0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 85.7% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 10.7% | |
| 22 | Saxton Hoepker | F | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Kansas City2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CJ Evans | G | Jr | 5'11" | 30-30 | 30.4 | 11.6 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 43.4% | 22.4% | 1.6 | 70.9% | 27.6% | |
| 0 | Karmello Branch | G | Jr | 6'4" | 28-26 | 29.7 | 12.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 47.1% | 32.7% | 7.3 | 84.5% | 25.3% | |
| 33 | Jerome Palm | F | Sr | 6'10" | 31-27 | 26.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 48.9% | 21.7% | 0.7 | 44.4% | 19.9% | |
| 7 | Kasheem Grady II | G | Sr | 6'5" | 30-11 | 25.7 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 47.3% | 29.5% | 4.3 | 80.8% | 24.3% | |
| 4 | Chris Dockery | G | Jr | 6'6" | 29-20 | 22.2 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 54.8% | 32.1% | 1.0 | 56.7% | 19.8% | |
| 23 | Addarin Scott | F | Sr | 6'8" | 29-5 | 12.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 48.4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 57.9% | 20.3% | |
| 3 | Jamaria Clark | G | Jr | 6'2" | 27-1 | 11.9 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 35.9% | 21.3% | 1.7 | 95.0% | 18.1% | |
| 8 | Trey Booker-Lowery | G | Jr | 6'7" | 25-1 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 44.2% | 32.3% | 1.2 | 53.6% | 31.1% | |
| 21 | Babacar Mbengue | F | So | 7'0" | 25-1 | 8.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 48.0% | — | 0.0 | 26.3% | 12.8% | |
| 11 | Kernan Bundy | G | Sr | 6'2" | 6-1 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 27.5% | 23.1% | 2.2 | 77.8% | 21.5% | |
| 13 | D'Andre Harrison | F | Fr | 6'6" | 6-1 | 12.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 62.5% | 15.2% | |
| 5 | Cory Curtis Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Jason Hilliard | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Max Sims | G | Jr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
SE Missouri2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted SE Missouri's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BJ Ward | G | Jr | 6'0" | 33-33 | 30.2 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 46.4% | 35.0% | 4.3 | 81.0% | 24.3% | |
| 44 | Braxton Stacker | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 28.2 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 48.7% | 31.9% | 4.4 | 80.3% | 24.6% | |
| 10 | Luke Almodovar | G | Jr | 6'3" | 33-23 | 27.0 | 14.1 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 51.5% | 31.6% | 6.3 | 76.0% | 28.8% | |
| 15 | Brendan Terry | F | Sr | 6'7" | 33-24 | 25.1 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 55.8% | 34.6% | 0.8 | 61.5% | 26.6% | |
| 55 | Marqueas Bell | G | Jr | 6'3" | 33-10 | 22.1 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 53.5% | 30.8% | 0.4 | 73.9% | 23.6% | |
| 7 | Landren Blocker | G | So | 6'5" | 33-28 | 17.8 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 54.5% | 41.7% | 0.7 | 48.2% | 18.1% | |
| 4 | Troy Cole Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-4 | 13.5 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 43.4% | 7.0% | 1.3 | 68.3% | 21.6% | |
| 18 | David Idada | C | Sr | 7'0" | 33-10 | 10.7 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 54.8% | — | 0.0 | 54.3% | 10.8% | |
| 1 | PJ Farmer | G | Fr | 6'2" | 32-0 | 9.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 43.1% | 10.5% | 0.6 | 58.8% | 17.1% | |
| 9 | Blaize Sagna | G | Sr | 6'3" | 27-0 | 8.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 41.9% | 25.0% | 1.0 | 90.0% | 11.7% | |
| 30 | Elliot Lowndes | F | Sr | 7'0" | 32-0 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 58.5% | 34.3% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 19.3% | |
| 25 | Jay Reynolds | G | Fr | 6'3" | 10-0 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 28.9% | 20.0% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 22.8% | |
| 3 | Trace Sadler | F | Fr | 7'1" | 12-0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 85.7% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 10.7% | |
| 22 | Saxton Hoepker | F | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26SE Missouri
Against the spread
Season
13-16-1
Home
5-7
Road
7-7-1
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +0.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
13-17
Home
6-6
Road
7-8
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −5.5
Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Morehead St | N | L 61–66 | −4.0 | L−9.0 | 139.5 | U127 | 94.4 | 102.1 | 64.6 |
| Mar 5 | Lindenwood | N | W 68–66 | −3.0 | L−1.0 | 149.0 | U134 | 100.1 | 97.2 | 67.9 |
| Feb 28 | Tennessee Tech | H | W 89–73 | −7.5 | W+8.5 | 142.0 | O162 | 130.8 | 107.3 | 68.1 |
| Feb 26 | Tennessee St | H | L 71–79 | −3.5 | L−11.5 | 152.0 | U150 | 96.4 | 107.3 | 73.6 |
| Feb 21 | Little Rock | A | W 70–65 | −2.5 | W+2.5 | 144.0 | U135 | 102.6 | 95.3 | 68.2 |
| Feb 17 | UT Martin | A | W 56–53 OT | +2.5 | W+5.5 | 138.5 | U109 | 78.4 | 74.2 | 71.5 |
| Feb 14 | Lindenwood | A | W 73–61 | +2.0 | W+14.0 | 156.5 | U134 | 100.8 | 84.2 | 72.4 |
| Feb 12 | SIUE | A | L 56–74 | −1.0 | L−19.0 | 137.5 | U130 | 85.4 | 112.8 | 65.6 |
| Feb 7 | S Indiana | H | W 90–65 | −11.0 | W+14.0 | 140.5 | O155 | 133.2 | 96.2 | 67.6 |
| Feb 5 | Morehead St | H | W 82–70 | −7.5 | W+4.5 | 144.0 | O152 | 117.1 | 99.9 | 70.1 |
Kansas City
Against the spread
Season
5-23
Home
1-10
Road
4-12
Last 10
0-10
avg cover −11.4
Missed the spread 15 straightCovered 0 of 10 as an underdogCovered 0 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
16-12
Home
6-5
Road
10-6
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total −2.1
Under in the last gameOver in 6 of 10 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Oral Roberts | N | L 62–84 | +8.5 | L−13.5 | 149.0 | U146 | 88.9 | 120.5 | 69.7 |
| Feb 28 | Oral Roberts | H | L 70–94 | +3.5 | L−20.5 | 149.5 | O164 | 95.1 | 127.7 | 73.6 |
| Feb 26 | S Dakota St | H | L 59–73 | +12.0 | L−2.0 | 151.0 | U132 | 92.0 | 113.8 | 64.1 |
| Feb 21 | N Dakota St | A | L 59–95 | +19.5 | L−16.5 | 147.5 | O154 | 76.4 | 123.0 | 77.2 |
| Feb 19 | North Dakota | A | L 70–85 | +9.5 | L−5.5 | 150.5 | O155 | 90.7 | 110.2 | 77.1 |
| Feb 14 | St Thomas | H | L 64–104 | +13.0 | L−27.0 | 153.5 | O168 | 87.9 | 142.9 | 72.8 |
| Feb 12 | Oral Roberts | A | L 60–69 | +6.0 | L−3.0 | 149.5 | U129 | 92.2 | 106.0 | 65.1 |
| Feb 4 | South Dakota | H | L 75–82 OT | +2.0 | L−5.0 | 156.0 | O157 | 93.3 | 102.0 | 80.4 |
| Feb 1 | St Thomas | A | L 64–99 | +18.5 | L−16.5 | 150.0 | O163 | 86.5 | 133.8 | 74.0 |
| Jan 28 | Denver | H | L 61–69 | +3.5 | L−4.5 | 163.0 | U130 | 90.6 | 102.5 | 67.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSE MissouriKansas City
Efficiency
105.2
97.7
106.8
114.1
69.4
69.9
—
—
Shooting
49.8%
45.7%
51.8%
47.6%
30.9%
28.4%
69.5%
66.2%
38.8%
29.2%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
18.2%
18.1%
16.4%
29.6%
26.4%
28.2%
35.9%
9.9%
10.9%
9.5%
9.4%
Style
36.0%
36.8%
46.3%
46.9%
14.1%
14.5%
45.7%
46.2%
37.9%
29.7%
Roster
3.25
3.32
6'4.4"
6'5"
—
84.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSE Missouri
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted SE Missouri's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Kansas City
Returning minutes: 84.5%Returning production: 83.6%
Lost
- Jayson Petty 31.1 mpg, 11.1 ppg · transferred to C Michigan
Added
- Cory Curtis Jr. no D1 minutes last season
- Max Sims no D1 minutes last season
- Jason Hilliard no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.