CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceTitan Gym, Fullerton, CA
Weber St
Efficiency #203
2025-26: 16-16 · 10-9 conf
@
Fullerton
Efficiency #205
2025-26: 18-16 · 13-9 conf
Sat, Nov 28 · 5:00 PM ET
78.4
win 36%
Projected
82.5
win 64%
No line posted yet.
Model: CSUF −4.1 · total 161.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Fullerton 72.0, Weber St 69.1 → 72.8 possessions
+9.8
Fullerton offense vs Weber St defense
+1.5
Weber St offense vs Fullerton defense
+1.5
Projected total
161.0
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Fullerton offense vs Weber St defense
+1.5
Weber St offense vs Fullerton defense
−1.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.2
Fullerton by 4.1
4.1
Weber St side ◂▸ Fullerton side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +4.2 against +4.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Fullerton.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Fullerton is the faster team (75.5, #2 of 365) and Weber St the slower (69.9, #99). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
72.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
161.0
model
Projected team totals
78.4 / 82.5
Weber St / Fullerton
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.1#111
Weber St
72.0#4
Fullerton

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
Fullerton averages 75.5 possessions per 40, Weber St 69.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 74 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageFullerton
Where Fullerton struggles: the offensive glass
Fullerton rebounds 24.6% of its own misses (#345); Weber St lets opponents grab 27.7% of their own misses (#56). Expect about 25.0%, 5.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageWeber St
Where Weber St scores: shooting
Weber St shoots an effective 51.7% (#163); Fullerton allows 54.3% (#307). Expect about 53.0%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversFullerton
Fullerton protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for Fullerton's offense.
ClashWeber St
Style clash: 3-point volume
Weber St rarely shoots threes (32.8% of its shots); Fullerton lets opponents take 46.4% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashWeber St
Style clash: ball movement
Weber St creates off the dribble (assists on 45.9% of its baskets); Fullerton allows assists on 59.7% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Weber St has the ball
OffenseFullerton allowsvs D1 avg
51.7% #163
54.3% #307
+2.5 pt/100
15.7% #117
19.5% #35
-1.4 pt/100
31.8% #132
28.3% #80
-0.0 pt/100
39.2% #76
35.3% #188
+0.3 pt/100
72.9% #170
—
+0.0 pt/100
Weber St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.5 pts/100
Fullerton has the ball
OffenseWeber St allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #180
54.5% #316
+2.4 pt/100
15.2% #79
16.3% #202
+1.5 pt/100
24.6% #345
27.7% #56
-3.3 pt/100
37.8% #107
36.4% #224
+0.3 pt/100
71.6% #218
—
-0.1 pt/100
Fullerton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Weber Stoffense vsFullertondefense
Share of shots by zone
Weber St shoots
Fullerton allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.4%#25764.6%#34758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)33.7%#31047.0%#33139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.5%#32438.5%#18038.0%
Three34.5%#14334.0%#18533.7%
Fullertonoffense vsWeber Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Fullerton shoots
Weber St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.2%#22265.1%#35358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.4%#11340.5%#19939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.5%#20540.1%#24638.0%
Three34.2%#16233.5%#16033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Weber St
+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#72 of 365
Off reb %
31.8%
#132
Def reb %
72.3%
#56
Turnover %
15.7%
#117
Forced TO %
16.3%
#202
FT rate
39.2%
#76
FT allowed
36.4%
#224
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed−0.3
Fullerton
+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#77 of 365
Off reb %
24.6%
#345
Def reb %
71.7%
#80
Turnover %
15.2%
#79
Forced TO %
19.5%
#35
FT rate
37.8%
#107
FT allowed
35.3%
#188
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.9
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.9
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed0.0

Weber St has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.6 (#72 of 365) to Fullerton’s +2.5 (#77).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Weber St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Weber St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Tijan Saine Jr.GJr5'10"32-3232.617.52.34.31.852.2%34.7%4.589.6%28.5%
7Malek GommaFJr6'8"32-3225.18.06.91.41.154.2%40.0%0.247.0%19.5%
8Viljami VartiainenGJr6'6"26-2330.012.83.21.00.761.8%42.2%6.978.4%20.6%
5Nigel BurrisFSr6'7"32-1223.210.34.90.61.257.6%35.0%1.984.6%22.9%
0Edwin Suarez Jr.FJr6'6"31-2021.69.26.01.22.051.8%0.0%0.257.6%28.0%
6Trevor HennigGSo6'4"26-724.310.02.81.61.552.2%30.0%2.365.4%24.9%
24Jace WhitingGJr6'3"20-1830.811.23.52.71.351.3%36.2%3.582.4%21.0%
12ArDarius GraysonGFr6'1"31-013.03.81.51.30.938.0%24.4%1.577.8%22.6%
9Duce PaschalGFr6'5"31-1612.73.72.50.70.640.3%23.9%1.570.4%21.4%
15Declan CutlerFSo6'9"27-07.11.52.10.20.363.0%—0.054.5%11.8%
33David HansenFFr6'9"23-06.02.21.20.10.353.7%37.8%1.6100.0%20.1%
11Brady SmithGJr6'0"7-03.61.40.40.00.336.4%0.0%0.3100.0%28.8%
4Anthony MooreGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
22Tyler ChristensenGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Weber StFullerton
Efficiency
110.0
107.6
111.3
109.1
69.1
72.0
—
—
Shooting
51.7%
51.4%
51.6%
51.4%
34.5%
34.2%
72.9%
71.6%
39.2%
37.8%
Ball control & glass
15.7%
15.2%
16.3%
19.5%
31.8%
24.6%
27.7%
28.3%
9.0%
8.2%
11.0%
8.5%
Style
32.8%
43.1%
48.0%
39.4%
15.3%
20.5%
45.9%
55.2%
31.6%
37.8%
Roster
2.70
2.86
6'4.3"
6'3.8"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Weber St
Returning minutes: 99.5%Returning production: 99.1%
ESPN hasn't posted Weber St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 99% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Fullerton
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Fullerton's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.