Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs South Alabama Jaguars basketball final score
Thu, Nov 5 · 8:00 PM ET · Mitchell Center, Mobile, AL
Non-conferenceESPN+Mitchell Center, Mobile, AL
Jax State
2025-26: 15-17 · 10-11 conf
Efficiency #198
@
South Alabama
0-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #227
Final (2OT)
8083
Final score
Projected 70.1 – 72.9
JXST win 40%USA win 60%
MarketClose
Spread
USA −5.0
open USA −1.5
Total
139.5
open 143.0
Our line
USA −2.8
as of Thu, Nov 5 · 7:52 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
South Alabamarated 4.1 below average
−4.1
Jax Staterated 2.3 below average
+2.3
Home court
+4.7
Our line
USA −2.8
◂ Jax State sideSouth Alabama side ▸
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward South Alabama. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, South Alabama is the faster team (70.9, #160 of 365) and Jax State the slower (65.7, #306). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.7
per team, 40 min
Market total
139.5
Market close · open 143.0
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.2#295
Jax State
69.1#297
South Alabama
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
USA −2.8
Four factors −4.9 · not in these stats +7.7
From the four factors
South Alabama has the ball+0.5
Jax State has the ball+5.5
South Alabama has the ball
✗Few second chancesOR% 15.6% #281 · JXST allows 28.0% #67−5.2
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.1% #64 · JXST forces 16.2% #207 · ~10 turnovers+3.0
✓Shoots it welleFG% 55.6% #90 · JXST allows 49.6% #85+2.4
✓Gets to the lineFTR 51.9% #43 · JXST allows 38.7% #278 · FT 60.7% #219+0.2
Jax State has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 49.7% #253 · USA allows 63.2% #258+5.8
✗Few second chancesOR% 29.8% #208 · USA allows 29.0% #119−0.9
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.0% #205 · USA forces 18.3% #140 · ~12 turnovers+0.6
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 43.1% #21 · USA allows 31.6% #109 · FT 68.4% #3140.0
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootJax Stateoffense vsSouth Alabamadefense
Share of shots by zone
Jax State shoots
45.6
6.1
10.3
38.0
South Alabama allows
26.3
5.3
1.8
66.7
D-I average
38.2
7.6
13.0
41.1
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 52.0%#349 | 66.7%#193 | 58.7% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.9%#150 | 33.3%#107 | 36.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 29.5%#357 | 100.0%#270 | 35.6% |
| Three | 35.7%#76 | 42.1%#241 | 32.5% |
South Alabamaoffense vsJax Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
South Alabama shoots
36.5
15.4
9.6
38.5
Jax State allows
38.4
5.4
13.5
42.7
D-I average
38.2
7.6
13.0
41.1
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 94.7%#5 | 55.4%#74 | 58.7% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 25.0%#168 | 44.0%#268 | 36.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 20.0%#203 | 34.1%#53 | 35.6% |
| Three | 27.3%#192 | 33.3%#141 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineJax State
+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#125 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#208
Def reb %
72.0%
#67
Turnover %
17.0%
#205
Forced TO %
16.2%
#207
FT rate
43.1%
#21
FT allowed
38.7%
#278
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn+2.1
Foul shots allowed−0.9
South Alabama
+3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#108 of 365
Off reb %
15.6%
#281
Def reb %
71.0%
#119
Turnover %
14.1%
#64
Forced TO %
18.3%
#140
FT rate
51.9%
#43
FT allowed
31.6%
#109
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−5.4
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security+3.2
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+3.9
Foul shots allowed+1.4
South Alabama has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.7 (#108 of 365) to Jax State’s +1.4 (#125).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Jax State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 34.0 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 76.3% | 64.3% | 7.0 | 83.3% | 20.7% | |
| 2 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 32.5 | 22.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 65.5% | 41.7% | 12.0 | 75.0% | 33.4% | |
| 6 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 28.5 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 46.7% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 42.9% | 21.5% | |
| 3 | F | So | 6'7" | 2-0 | 26.5 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 43.8% | 35.7% | 7.0 | 50.0% | 34.5% | |
| 10 | F | So | 6'8" | 2-2 | 22.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 63.6% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 66.7% | 17.9% | |
| 0 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 2-0 | 17.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 71.4% | — | 0.0 | — | 11.0% | |
| 11 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 2-2 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70.0% | 100.0% | 0.5 | 75.0% | 12.8% | |
| 4 | F | Jr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 116.7% | 80.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 20.6% | |
| 5 | G | So | 6'0" | 2-0 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 19.2% | |
| 8 | G | Fr | 5'11" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 60.0% | 66.7% | 1.5 | — | 15.2% | |
| 20 | F | Fr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 71.4% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.7% | |
| 12 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 57.1% | 33.3% | 6.0 | — | 38.2% | |
| 7 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 100.0% | 26.2% | |
| 9 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameJax State
Against the spread
Season
13-15-1
Home
6-8
Road
7-5-1
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +0.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-12
Home
7-7
Road
10-3
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +3.5
Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | LaGrange Panthers | H | W 123–59 | — | — | — | — | 147.2 | 70.6 | 83.6 |
| Mar 10 | New Mexico St | N | L 63–68 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 142.0 | U131 | 98.1 | 105.9 | 64.2 |
| Mar 7 | UTEP | A | W 64–61 | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 139.0 | U125 | 95.6 | 91.1 | 67.0 |
| Mar 5 | New Mexico St | A | L 75–77 OT | +6.0 | W+4.0 | 145.5 | O152 | 98.8 | 101.5 | 75.9 |
| Feb 28 | Liberty | H | L 78–81 | +4.0 | W+1.0 | 139.0 | O159 | 122.8 | 127.5 | 63.5 |
| Feb 26 | Delaware | H | W 80–70 OT | −7.5 | W+2.5 | 134.0 | O150 | 119.8 | 104.8 | 66.8 |
| Feb 21 | Sam Houston | A | L 78–82 | +7.5 | W+3.5 | 148.5 | O160 | 115.7 | 121.6 | 67.4 |
| Feb 18 | Louisiana Tech | A | L 71–77 | +2.0 | L−4.0 | 133.0 | O148 | 101.1 | 109.6 | 70.2 |
| Feb 14 | New Mexico St | H | L 70–79 | −2.5 | L−11.5 | 140.5 | O149 | 106.3 | 119.9 | 65.9 |
| Feb 11 | UTEP | H | L 64–69 | −6.5 | L−11.5 | 135.5 | U133 | 107.0 | 115.3 | 59.8 |
South Alabama
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −8.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +8.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | Ohio | H | L 77–86 | +1.0 | L−8.0 | 155.0 | O163 | 108.6 | 121.3 | 70.9 |
| Mar 17 | Auburn | A | L 67–78 | +18.0 | W+7.0 | 153.0 | U145 | 104.4 | 121.6 | 64.2 |
| Mar 6 | GA Southern | N | L 85–94 | −4.5 | L−13.5 | 148.5 | O179 | 126.5 | 139.9 | 67.2 |
| Feb 27 | Southern Miss | H | L 55–68 | −4.0 | L−17.0 | 142.0 | U123 | 85.0 | 105.1 | 64.7 |
| Feb 25 | UL Monroe | H | W 89–54 | −14.5 | W+20.5 | 153.5 | U143 | 132.3 | 80.3 | 67.3 |
| Feb 21 | Troy | H | W 65–54 | +2.5 | W+13.5 | 143.0 | U119 | 111.0 | 92.2 | 58.5 |
| Feb 19 | Texas St | H | L 82–90 OT | −4.0 | L−12.0 | 137.5 | O172 | 112.6 | 123.5 | 72.8 |
| Feb 16 | Marshall | A | L 80–84 | +5.5 | W+1.5 | 151.0 | O164 | 123.6 | 129.8 | 64.7 |
| Feb 14 | Arkansas St | A | W 92–88 OT | +7.5 | W+11.5 | 150.0 | O180 | 120.6 | 115.3 | 76.3 |
| Feb 12 | Southern Miss | A | W 84–78 | +1.0 | W+7.0 | 136.0 | O162 | 112.1 | 104.1 | 74.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeJax StateSouth Alabama
Efficiency
103.2
104.5
105.1
107.9
69.2
69.1
—
-0.5
Shooting
49.7%
55.6%
47.4%
65.6%
35.7%
27.3%
68.4%
60.7%
43.1%
51.9%
Ball control & glass
17.0%
14.1%
16.2%
18.3%
29.8%
15.6%
28.0%
29.0%
9.0%
7.0%
9.7%
6.3%
Style
38.1%
40.7%
42.3%
51.9%
12.3%
10.4%
49.6%
48.1%
35.3%
26.0%
Roster
3.37
2.57
6'6.1"
6'5.2"
0.0%
11.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputJax State
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Jacoby Hill 30.5 mpg, 10.0 ppg · transferred to Kennesaw St
- Mostapha El Moutaouakkil 29.9 mpg, 19.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- AC Bryant 26.8 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaye Nash 25.8 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to UConn
- Emondrek Erkins-Ford 21.5 mpg, 8.3 ppg · transferred to Western KY
- Iaroslav Niagu 18.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Colorado
Added
- Jordan Stiemke from Loyola MD · 27.5 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
- Chris Lockett Jr. from Jacksonville · 24.5 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
- Ma'Shy Hill from Abilene Chrstn · 10.1 mpg, 2.7 ppg last season
- Naas Cunningham from UNLV · 8.0 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
- Leon Horner from Texas Tech · 6.1 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
- Brandon Walker from Mississippi St · 5.3 mpg, 2.8 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
South Alabama
Returning minutes: 11.6%Returning production: 17.7%
Lost
- Adam Olsen 33.8 mpg, 15.7 ppg · transferred to Auburn
- Chaze Harris 31.8 mpg, 19.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jayden Cooper 30.0 mpg, 11.3 ppg · transferred to ETSU
- Randy Brady 26.9 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Hantz Louis-Jeune 23.5 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- John Broom 14.3 mpg, 2.1 ppg · transferred to Vermont
Added
- Roderick Williams Jr. new to D1 · 21.0 mpg, 9.0 ppg last season
- Davaughn Hueitt new to D1 · 13.0 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
- Desmond Williams no D1 minutes last season
- Diego Roman no D1 minutes last season
- Lenni Kunzewitsch no D1 minutes last season
- Keyne Costa no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 12% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -3.5→-4.5-112 | 145.5→139.5o-105 u-115 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -1.5→-4.5-120 | 142.5→139.5o-110 u-110 | -210 | +172 |
| BetMGM | -3.5→-4.5-115 | 143.5→139.5o-105 u-115 | -210 | +170 |
| BetRivers | -2.5→-4.5-118 | 144.5→139.5o-112 u-110 | -235 | +180 |
| Caesars | -3.5→-5-110 | 143.5→139o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -1.5→-5-110 | 143→139o-110 u-110 | -205 | +170 |
| BetOnline | -2→-4.5-112 | 142.5→139o-110 u-110 | -195 | +170 |
| Bovada | -5-115 | 142→139o-110 u-110 | -200 | +170 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5→-5.5-110 | 146.5→139.5o-105 u-115 | -200 | +170 |
| Hard Rock | -2.5→-4.5-115 | 144.5→139.5o-110 u-110 | -230 | +180 |
| Kalshi | -2.5→-5.5+113 | 143.5→137.5o-117 u+113 | -194 | +178 |
| Polymarket | -5.5→-4.5-113 | 140.5o+113 u-117 | -178 | +170 |
| Novig | -4.5-111 | 143.5→— | -186 | +178 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Nov 19 | 2025-26 | South Alabama 71 – 65 Jax State |
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.