CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceSimon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
Bellarmine
Efficiency #281
2025-26: 13-19 · 8-12 conf
@
Indiana
Efficiency #45
2025-26: 18-14 · 9-12 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · TBD
70.3
win 10%
Projected
84.9
win 90%
No line posted yet.
Model: IU −14.6 · total 155.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Indiana 67.6, Bellarmine 66.5 → 65.8 possessions
−5.5
Indiana offense vs Bellarmine defense
+11.6
Bellarmine offense vs Indiana defense
+0.8
Projected total
155.2
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Indiana offense vs Bellarmine defense
+11.6
Bellarmine offense vs Indiana defense
−0.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Indiana by 14.6
14.6
Bellarmine side ◂▸ Indiana side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 155.1 against a projected 155.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Indiana.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Indiana is the faster team (66.6, #263 of 365) and Bellarmine the slower (66.2, #287). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
155.2
model
Projected team totals
70.3 / 84.9
Bellarmine / Indiana
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.5#319
Bellarmine
67.6#244
Indiana
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageIndiana
Where Indiana scores: shooting
Indiana shoots an effective 56.1% (#22); Bellarmine allows 59.4% (#365). Expect about 58.2%, 6.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +9.9 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageBellarmine
Where Bellarmine scores: shooting
Bellarmine shoots an effective 59.4% (#3); Indiana allows 49.0% (#68). Expect about 54.8%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.0 points per 100 possessions.
ClashIndiana
Style match: 3-point volume
Indiana takes 50.5% of its shots from three; Bellarmine lets opponents take 50.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 55.5% — both habits push the same way.
ClashBellarmine
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
Bellarmine (#3 in 2-point shooting) against Indiana (#53 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 55.7%. Historically Bellarmine's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
ClashIndiana
Style match: ball movement
Indiana assists on 62.5% of its made baskets; Bellarmine allows assists on 61.9% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 65.2% — both habits push the same way.
GlassBellarmine
Bellarmine gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 24.3% is worth roughly -3.7 points per 100 possessions against Bellarmine's offense.
Bellarmine has the ball
OffenseIndiana allowsvs D1 avg
59.4% #3
49.0% #68
+5.0 pt/100
15.5% #104
15.1% #280
+2.2 pt/100
22.4% #354
29.3% #122
-3.7 pt/100
35.0% #178
37.0% #236
+0.1 pt/100
78.8% #7
—
+0.6 pt/100
Bellarmine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.2 pts/100
Indiana has the ball
OffenseBellarmine allowsvs D1 avg
56.1% #22
59.4% #365
+9.9 pt/100
15.1% #71
15.0% #287
+2.5 pt/100
26.9% #300
34.2% #320
-0.4 pt/100
35.0% #179
34.3% #157
-0.1 pt/100
78.0% #18
—
+0.5 pt/100
Indiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +12.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersBellarmineoffense vsIndianadefense
Share of shots by zone
Bellarmine shoots
47.4
5.9
5.9
40.7
Indiana allows
34.1
6.1
22.8
37.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 66.7%#9 | 56.5%#101 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.4%#137 | 44.2%#271 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.8%#234 | 38.8%#191 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.1%#17 | 33.1%#128 | 33.7% |
Indianaoffense vsBellarminedefense
Share of shots by zone
Indiana shoots
35.3
3.1
10.6
51.0
Bellarmine allows
33.1
6.3
10.1
50.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.4%#18 | 67.7%#363 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.9%#24 | 35.6%#79 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.2%#22 | 39.5%#221 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#138 | 40.4%#364 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersBellarmine
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#324 of 365
Off reb %
22.4%
#354
Def reb %
65.8%
#320
Turnover %
15.5%
#104
Forced TO %
15.0%
#287
FT rate
35.0%
#178
FT allowed
34.3%
#157
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.6
Defensive rebounding−1.2
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed+0.3
Indiana
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#238 of 365
Off reb %
26.9%
#300
Def reb %
70.7%
#122
Turnover %
15.1%
#71
Forced TO %
15.1%
#280
FT rate
35.0%
#179
FT allowed
37.0%
#236
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Indiana has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.1 (#238 of 365) to Bellarmine’s −3.7 (#324).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Bellarmine2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kenyon Goodin | G | So | 6'3" | 31-31 | 32.6 | 11.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 62.7% | 41.8% | 5.1 | 87.3% | 17.5% | |
| 11 | Brian Waddell | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-31 | 31.2 | 15.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 67.5% | 41.9% | 1.9 | 79.8% | 23.9% | |
| 32 | Jack Karasinski | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-30 | 29.8 | 21.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 65.5% | 41.5% | 5.7 | 80.7% | 34.5% | |
| 23 | Sam Donald | F | Fr | 6'8" | 30-29 | 26.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 63.9% | 42.1% | 2.5 | 76.5% | 13.0% | |
| 2 | Tyler Doyle | G | So | 6'5" | 26-23 | 27.8 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 56.0% | 33.3% | 1.6 | 76.1% | 21.9% | |
| 7 | Donovan Hunter | F | Jr | 6'8" | 29-1 | 13.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 46.3% | 32.1% | 2.7 | 60.0% | 22.7% | |
| 5 | Myles Watkins | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-2 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 53.0% | 21.4% | 0.5 | 90.9% | 21.9% | |
| 22 | Darrius Bolden | G | Sr | 6'1" | 28-6 | 10.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 34.8% | 27.3% | 0.4 | 68.8% | 10.5% | |
| 44 | Jacob Wassler | C | Fr | 6'11" | 22-0 | 12.7 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 54.4% | 35.7% | 1.3 | 100.0% | 17.6% | |
| 10 | Grant Whitaker | G | So | 6'4" | 26-3 | 8.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 0.4 | 72.7% | 16.0% | |
| 0 | Tommy Clark | G | Fr | 6'3" | 12-0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 58.3% | 35.7% | 1.2 | 100.0% | 21.4% | |
| 4 | Grant Neal | G | Fr | 6'3" | 11-0 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 52.5% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 36.4% | |
| 14 | Dominique Murphy | F | Fr | 6'5" | 4-0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 25.7% | |
| 15 | Luke Anderson | F | So | 6'8" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 1 | Ant McAfee | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Indiana2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Conor Enright | G | Sr | 6'1" | 32-32 | 30.0 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 51.2% | 34.7% | 2.3 | 79.3% | 10.9% | |
| 6 | Tayton Conerway | G | Sr | 6'3" | 29-19 | 21.3 | 9.5 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 61.1% | 29.0% | 2.1 | 73.7% | 26.4% | |
| 11 | Trent Sisley | F | Fr | 6'8" | 30-0 | 13.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 49.1% | 27.1% | 1.6 | 53.8% | 20.3% | |
| 0 | Jasai Miles | G | Jr | 6'6" | 25-0 | 9.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 41.5% | 24.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 14.9% | |
| 13 | Aleksa Ristic | G | Fr | 6'3" | 12-0 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 60.0% | 66.7% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 14.4% | |
| 30 | Ian Stephens | G | Jr | 6'5" | 12-0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 5.1% | |
| 21 | Drew Snively | G | Fr | 6'5" | 9-0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 20.0% | |
| 18 | Tryce Grensing | G | Fr | 6'0" | 10-0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 3.6% | |
| 15 | Andrej Acimovic | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Jason Drake | G | Jr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Jordan Rayford | G | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Josh Harris | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Bellarmine2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kenyon Goodin | G | So | 6'3" | 31-31 | 32.6 | 11.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 62.7% | 41.8% | 5.1 | 87.3% | 17.5% | |
| 11 | Brian Waddell | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-31 | 31.2 | 15.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 67.5% | 41.9% | 1.9 | 79.8% | 23.9% | |
| 32 | Jack Karasinski | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-30 | 29.8 | 21.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 65.5% | 41.5% | 5.7 | 80.7% | 34.5% | |
| 23 | Sam Donald | F | Fr | 6'8" | 30-29 | 26.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 63.9% | 42.1% | 2.5 | 76.5% | 13.0% | |
| 2 | Tyler Doyle | G | So | 6'5" | 26-23 | 27.8 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 56.0% | 33.3% | 1.6 | 76.1% | 21.9% | |
| 7 | Donovan Hunter | F | Jr | 6'8" | 29-1 | 13.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 46.3% | 32.1% | 2.7 | 60.0% | 22.7% | |
| 5 | Myles Watkins | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-2 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 53.0% | 21.4% | 0.5 | 90.9% | 21.9% | |
| 22 | Darrius Bolden | G | Sr | 6'1" | 28-6 | 10.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 34.8% | 27.3% | 0.4 | 68.8% | 10.5% | |
| 44 | Jacob Wassler | C | Fr | 6'11" | 22-0 | 12.7 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 54.4% | 35.7% | 1.3 | 100.0% | 17.6% | |
| 10 | Grant Whitaker | G | So | 6'4" | 26-3 | 8.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 0.4 | 72.7% | 16.0% | |
| 0 | Tommy Clark | G | Fr | 6'3" | 12-0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 58.3% | 35.7% | 1.2 | 100.0% | 21.4% | |
| 4 | Grant Neal | G | Fr | 6'3" | 11-0 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 52.5% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 36.4% | |
| 14 | Dominique Murphy | F | Fr | 6'5" | 4-0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 25.7% | |
| 15 | Luke Anderson | F | So | 6'8" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 1 | Ant McAfee | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Bellarmine
Against the spread
Season
17-13
Home
10-3
Road
6-9
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +3.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
20-10
Home
7-6
Road
11-4
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +11.7
Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | C Arkansas | N | L 73–86 | +8.0 | L−5.0 | 155.0 | O159 | 115.6 | 136.2 | 63.1 |
| Mar 4 | Jacksonville | N | W 82–79 | −2.0 | W+1.0 | 146.5 | O161 | 128.6 | 123.8 | 63.8 |
| Feb 28 | Austin Peay | H | W 111–97 | +5.5 | W+19.5 | 155.0 | O208 | 134.2 | 117.3 | 82.7 |
| Feb 25 | North Alabama | A | L 68–73 | −3.0 | L−8.0 | 147.0 | U141 | 115.5 | 124.0 | 58.8 |
| Feb 21 | E Kentucky | H | L 92–95 | +2.0 | L−1.0 | 153.0 | O187 | 144.3 | 149.0 | 63.7 |
| Feb 18 | Lipscomb | H | L 72–75 | +3.5 | W+0.5 | 155.5 | U147 | 112.5 | 117.2 | 64.0 |
| Feb 14 | Austin Peay | A | L 70–90 | +9.5 | L−10.5 | 153.0 | O160 | 115.7 | 148.8 | 60.5 |
| Feb 11 | C Arkansas | A | L 76–84 | +7.5 | L−0.5 | 149.5 | O160 | 115.9 | 128.0 | 65.6 |
| Feb 7 | FGCU | H | W 81–65 | +2.0 | W+18.0 | 152.5 | U146 | 120.3 | 96.5 | 67.3 |
| Feb 5 | Stetson | H | W 92–71 | −4.5 | W+16.5 | 148.5 | O163 | 149.6 | 115.5 | 61.5 |
Indiana
Against the spread
Season
14-18
Home
9-9
Road
4-7
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −5.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-18
Home
7-11
Road
5-6
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −0.9
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Northwestern | N | L 61–74 | −6.0 | L−19.0 | 142.0 | U135 | 100.5 | 121.9 | 60.7 |
| Mar 7 | Ohio State | A | L 78–91 | +4.0 | L−9.0 | 148.0 | O169 | 114.8 | 134.0 | 67.9 |
| Mar 4 | Minnesota | H | W 77–47 | −6.5 | W+23.5 | 138.5 | U124 | 125.7 | 76.7 | 61.3 |
| Mar 1 | #13Michigan St | H | L 64–77 | +3.0 | L−10.0 | 144.0 | U141 | 106.5 | 128.1 | 60.1 |
| Feb 24 | Northwestern | H | L 68–72 | −8.5 | L−12.5 | 146.0 | U140 | 111.3 | 117.8 | 61.1 |
| Feb 20 | #7Purdue | A | L 64–93 | +11.5 | L−17.5 | 150.0 | O157 | 100.8 | 146.5 | 63.5 |
| Feb 15 | #8Illinois | A | L 51–71 | +9.0 | L−11.0 | 153.5 | U122 | 90.1 | 125.5 | 56.6 |
| Feb 9 | Oregon | H | W 92–74 | −11.0 | W+7.0 | 143.5 | O166 | 138.7 | 111.5 | 66.3 |
| Feb 7 | Wisconsin | H | W 78–77 OT | −3.5 | L−2.5 | 156.0 | U155 | 114.0 | 112.6 | 68.4 |
| Feb 3 | USC | A | L 75–81 | −1.5 | L−7.5 | 152.5 | O156 | 103.2 | 111.5 | 72.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeBellarmineIndiana
Efficiency
113.2
115.2
119.4
105.0
66.5
67.6
—
—
Shooting
59.4%
56.1%
61.0%
60.3%
38.1%
34.7%
78.8%
78.0%
35.0%
35.0%
Ball control & glass
15.5%
15.1%
15.0%
15.1%
22.4%
26.9%
34.2%
29.3%
9.1%
8.2%
9.1%
10.1%
Style
41.2%
50.5%
47.0%
38.4%
9.2%
9.3%
53.4%
62.5%
28.4%
27.0%
Roster
2.70
3.29
6'5.8"
6'3.4"
93.7%
35.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputBellarmine
Returning minutes: 93.7%Returning production: 94.6%
Lost
- Michael Wilson Jr. 12.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Canisius
Added
- Ant McAfee no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Indiana
Returning minutes: 35.5%Returning production: 28.7%
Lost
- Tucker DeVries 34.3 mpg, 13.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Lamar Wilkerson 34.0 mpg, 20.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nick Dorn 21.8 mpg, 7.6 ppg · transferred to Miami
- Sam Alexis 21.3 mpg, 8.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Reed Bailey 19.2 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Josh Harris no D1 minutes last season
- Jason Drake no D1 minutes last season
- Andrej Acimovic no D1 minutes last season
- Jordan Rayford no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.