CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJon M. Huntsman Center, Salt Lake City, UT
Towson
Efficiency #149
2025-26: 19-15 · 11-10 conf
@
Utah
Efficiency #177
2025-26: 10-22 · 2-17 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · TBD
68.8
win 40%
Projected
71.6
win 60%
No line posted yet.
Model: UTAH −2.9 · total 140.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Utah 67.6, Towson 65.7 → 65.0 possessions
−7.2
Utah offense vs Towson defense
−0.8
Towson offense vs Utah defense
+0.1
Projected total
140.4
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Utah offense vs Towson defense
−0.8
Towson offense vs Utah defense
−0.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Utah by 2.9
2.9
Towson side ◂▸ Utah side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 140.3 against a projected 140.4, and the margin steps add to +2.8 against +2.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Utah.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Utah is the faster team (68.0, #198 of 365) and Towson the slower (63.8, #358). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
140.4
model
Projected team totals
68.8 / 71.6
Towson / Utah
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.7#350
Towson
67.6#243
Utah
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
Utah averages 68.0 possessions per 40, Towson 63.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageTowson
Where Towson scores: ball control
Towson turns it over on 15.9% of possessions (#129); Utah forces turnovers on 13.3% of opponent possessions (#348). Expect about 14.0%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions.
GlassTowson
Towson owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.9% is worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions for Towson's offense.
ClashTowson
Style match: 3-point volume
Towson rarely shoots threes (34.9% of its shots); Utah runs teams off the line (33.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.1% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Towson, Towson's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Towson at about 32.1% of its shots from three, Utah about 39.1%.
Towson has the ball
OffenseUtah allowsvs D1 avg
46.5% #345
53.9% #298
-2.0 pt/100
15.9% #129
13.3% #348
+3.3 pt/100
36.0% #24
31.6% #233
+2.7 pt/100
30.4% #299
29.9% #57
-0.7 pt/100
68.9% #300
—
-0.3 pt/100
Towson net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.1 pts/100
Utah has the ball
OffenseTowson allowsvs D1 avg
52.0% #142
48.5% #49
-1.4 pt/100
16.7% #179
15.1% #274
+1.3 pt/100
29.3% #224
29.1% #117
-0.8 pt/100
31.7% #262
29.3% #49
-0.6 pt/100
73.8% #143
—
+0.1 pt/100
Utah net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.4 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersTowsonoffense vsUtahdefense
Share of shots by zone
Towson shoots
34.7
6.1
24.2
35.0
Utah allows
42.3
7.7
16.7
33.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.9%#300 | 60.1%#233 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.4%#166 | 53.3%#361 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.7%#159 | 40.3%#254 | 38.0% |
| Three | 29.4%#349 | 35.1%#254 | 33.7% |
Utahoffense vsTowsondefense
Share of shots by zone
Utah shoots
39.2
6.9
16.0
37.9
Towson allows
36.8
6.5
16.2
40.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.1%#230 | 56.4%#96 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.6%#231 | 42.1%#232 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.7%#88 | 37.6%#148 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.3%#97 | 30.9%#33 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersTowson
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#90 of 365
Off reb %
36.0%
#24
Def reb %
70.9%
#117
Turnover %
15.9%
#129
Forced TO %
15.1%
#274
FT rate
30.4%
#299
FT allowed
29.3%
#49
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.8
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed+1.5
Utah
−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#283 of 365
Off reb %
29.3%
#224
Def reb %
68.4%
#233
Turnover %
16.7%
#179
Forced TO %
13.3%
#348
FT rate
31.7%
#262
FT allowed
29.9%
#57
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.3
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers−2.3
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+1.4
Towson has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#90 of 365) to Utah’s −2.4 (#283).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Towson2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Towson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dylan Williamson | G | Jr | 6'1" | 34-34 | 35.9 | 14.6 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 47.3% | 34.0% | 7.3 | 74.5% | 28.8% | |
| 15 | Tyler Tejada | G | Jr | 6'9" | 32-31 | 35.5 | 17.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 48.0% | 29.1% | 4.6 | 88.2% | 31.7% | |
| 21 | Jack Doumbia Jr. | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-6 | 23.9 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 44.7% | 12.2% | 1.3 | 65.4% | 33.7% | |
| 23 | Caleb Embeya | F | So | 6'9" | 34-16 | 20.7 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 59.1% | 12.7% | |
| 3 | Tyler Coleman | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-24 | 19.9 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 51.2% | 35.7% | 0.9 | 72.5% | 17.3% | |
| 24 | Jaquan Womack | G | Fr | 6'6" | 32-10 | 19.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 44.9% | 27.6% | 2.7 | 64.8% | 27.0% | |
| 41 | Mor Seck | C | Sr | 7'1" | 34-17 | 14.5 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 54.5% | — | 0.0 | 43.3% | 16.4% | |
| 1 | Tyler Schmidt | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-13 | 14.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 48.4% | 27.1% | 1.8 | 85.7% | 14.8% | |
| 13 | Chike Ndefo | G | Fr | 6'7" | 32-9 | 12.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 46.7% | 12.5% | 0.3 | 46.9% | 18.2% | |
| 0 | Ryan Conway | G | Sr | 6'1" | 23-9 | 10.1 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 54.3% | 36.4% | 2.9 | 71.4% | 20.6% | |
| 2 | Jaiden Cole | G | Jr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 54.4% | 39.1% | 2.9 | 80.0% | 27.9% | |
| 12 | Abdou Samb | F | Sr | 6'8" | 7-1 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 8.4% | |
| 22 | Ryan Skerry | G | Jr | 6'4" | 10-0 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 10.7% | 12.5% | 0.8 | — | 26.8% | |
| 30 | Brandon Holmes | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Jon Barton | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Utah2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Don McHenry | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 30.8 | 17.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 53.7% | 38.8% | 6.3 | 83.5% | 29.9% | |
| 8 | Keanu Dawes | F | Jr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 30.7 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 60.5% | 31.7% | 3.2 | 72.4% | 22.4% | |
| 0 | Seydou Traore | F | Jr | 6'6" | 31-31 | 28.7 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 47.0% | 33.3% | 4.2 | 72.7% | 22.3% | |
| 32 | James Okonkwo | F | Sr | 6'8" | 29-22 | 21.7 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 51.6% | — | 0.0 | 63.3% | 9.4% | |
| 21 | Obomate Abbey | G | Fr | 6'0" | 31-0 | 15.4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 32.6% | 19.5% | 1.3 | 81.0% | 16.8% | |
| 7 | Josh Hayes | F | Jr | 6'9" | 32-10 | 13.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 63.8% | — | 0.0 | 60.7% | 11.7% | |
| 6 | Jacob Patrick | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-1 | 20.3 | 7.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 66.0% | 46.5% | 4.3 | 50.0% | 16.2% | |
| 11 | Lucas Langarita | G | Fr | 6'5" | 5-0 | 12.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 59.1% | 42.9% | 1.4 | — | 20.2% | |
| 31 | Ibrahima Traore | F | Fr | 6'9" | 9-0 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | — | 11.3% | |
| 9 | Jerry Huang | G | So | 6'2" | 7-0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 6.4% | |
| 15 | Alvin Jackson III | G | So | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Babacar Faye | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 34 | Colin McHaney | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Towson2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Towson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dylan Williamson | G | Jr | 6'1" | 34-34 | 35.9 | 14.6 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 47.3% | 34.0% | 7.3 | 74.5% | 28.8% | |
| 15 | Tyler Tejada | G | Jr | 6'9" | 32-31 | 35.5 | 17.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 48.0% | 29.1% | 4.6 | 88.2% | 31.7% | |
| 21 | Jack Doumbia Jr. | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-6 | 23.9 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 44.7% | 12.2% | 1.3 | 65.4% | 33.7% | |
| 23 | Caleb Embeya | F | So | 6'9" | 34-16 | 20.7 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 59.1% | 12.7% | |
| 3 | Tyler Coleman | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-24 | 19.9 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 51.2% | 35.7% | 0.9 | 72.5% | 17.3% | |
| 24 | Jaquan Womack | G | Fr | 6'6" | 32-10 | 19.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 44.9% | 27.6% | 2.7 | 64.8% | 27.0% | |
| 41 | Mor Seck | C | Sr | 7'1" | 34-17 | 14.5 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 54.5% | — | 0.0 | 43.3% | 16.4% | |
| 1 | Tyler Schmidt | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-13 | 14.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 48.4% | 27.1% | 1.8 | 85.7% | 14.8% | |
| 13 | Chike Ndefo | G | Fr | 6'7" | 32-9 | 12.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 46.7% | 12.5% | 0.3 | 46.9% | 18.2% | |
| 0 | Ryan Conway | G | Sr | 6'1" | 23-9 | 10.1 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 54.3% | 36.4% | 2.9 | 71.4% | 20.6% | |
| 2 | Jaiden Cole | G | Jr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 54.4% | 39.1% | 2.9 | 80.0% | 27.9% | |
| 12 | Abdou Samb | F | Sr | 6'8" | 7-1 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 8.4% | |
| 22 | Ryan Skerry | G | Jr | 6'4" | 10-0 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 10.7% | 12.5% | 0.8 | — | 26.8% | |
| 30 | Brandon Holmes | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Jon Barton | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Towson
Against the spread
Season
14-17-1
Home
5-7
Road
4-8-1
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover +1.2
Covered 2 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
12-20
Home
3-9
Road
5-8
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −5.7
Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 | Hofstra | N | L 65–68 OT | +4.0 | W+1.0 | 131.5 | O133 | 106.8 | 111.7 | 60.9 |
| Mar 8 | Charleston | N | W 81–56 | +2.5 | W+27.5 | 139.0 | U137 | 134.0 | 92.7 | 60.4 |
| Mar 7 | Hampton | N | W 74–68 | −7.5 | L−1.5 | 132.0 | O142 | 108.9 | 100.1 | 67.9 |
| Mar 3 | Stony Brook | A | W 69–57 | −1.0 | W+11.0 | 135.5 | U126 | 112.7 | 93.1 | 61.2 |
| Feb 28 | Campbell | H | W 71–67 | −5.0 | L−1.0 | 141.5 | U138 | 120.0 | 113.2 | 59.2 |
| Feb 26 | Elon | H | W 58–56 | −5.5 | L−3.5 | 144.0 | U114 | 94.1 | 90.9 | 61.6 |
| Feb 22 | Drexel | A | L 62–68 | −2.5 | L−8.5 | 131.0 | U130 | 93.9 | 102.9 | 66.1 |
| Feb 15 | Monmouth | A | L 71–72 | +1.0 | P0.0 | 137.5 | O143 | 109.1 | 110.7 | 65.0 |
| Feb 12 | Stony Brook | H | W 69–57 | −6.5 | W+5.5 | 135.0 | U126 | 108.8 | 89.9 | 63.4 |
| Feb 7 | Hofstra | A | L 49–71 | +4.0 | L−18.0 | 139.0 | U120 | 79.3 | 114.9 | 61.8 |
Utah
Against the spread
Season
14-16-2
Home
4-11-2
Road
8-3
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +0.1
Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 9 as an underdogCovered 5 of 7 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
18-14
Home
12-5
Road
3-8
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −5.3
Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdogOver in 2 of 7 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | Cincinnati | N | L 66–73 | +12.0 | W+5.0 | 137.5 | O139 | 100.6 | 111.3 | 65.6 |
| Mar 7 | Baylor | A | L 75–101 | +12.0 | L−14.0 | 148.5 | O176 | 118.7 | 159.9 | 63.2 |
| Mar 3 | Colorado | H | L 78–92 | +1.0 | L−13.0 | 148.5 | O170 | 122.0 | 143.9 | 63.9 |
| Feb 28 | Arizona St | A | L 60–73 | +7.0 | L−6.0 | 150.5 | U133 | 102.6 | 124.8 | 58.5 |
| Feb 24 | #4Iowa State | H | L 59–75 | +14.0 | L−2.0 | 144.5 | U134 | 86.7 | 110.2 | 68.1 |
| Feb 21 | UCF | H | L 71–73 | −1.0 | L−3.0 | 153.0 | U144 | 114.0 | 117.2 | 62.3 |
| Feb 18 | West Virginia | A | W 61–56 | +10.5 | W+15.5 | 134.0 | U117 | 99.9 | 91.7 | 61.0 |
| Feb 15 | Cincinnati | A | L 65–69 | +12.5 | W+8.5 | 139.0 | U134 | 101.9 | 108.2 | 63.8 |
| Feb 10 | #3Houston | H | L 52–66 | +17.0 | W+3.0 | 142.5 | U118 | 88.6 | 112.4 | 58.7 |
| Feb 7 | #11Kansas | A | L 59–71 | +18.5 | W+6.5 | 150.5 | U130 | 87.9 | 105.8 | 67.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeTowsonUtah
Efficiency
106.1
110.8
104.9
111.0
65.7
67.6
—
—
Shooting
46.5%
52.0%
47.8%
51.5%
29.4%
35.3%
68.9%
73.8%
30.4%
31.7%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
16.7%
15.1%
13.3%
36.0%
29.3%
29.1%
31.6%
7.4%
8.7%
7.6%
12.0%
Style
34.9%
37.5%
43.4%
43.5%
13.0%
12.9%
38.9%
51.7%
35.0%
29.6%
Roster
2.98
3.09
6'6.2"
6'5.7"
—
73.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputTowson
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Towson's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Utah
Returning minutes: 73.6%Returning production: 70.8%
Lost
- Terrence Brown 31.5 mpg, 19.9 ppg · transferred to North Carolina
- Kendyl Sanders 20.1 mpg, 5.2 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
- Jahki Howard 1.3 mpg, 0.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Moore 0.2 mpg, 0.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Colin McHaney no D1 minutes last season
- Alvin Jackson III no D1 minutes last season
- Babacar Faye no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 74% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.