CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceStabler Arena, Bethlehem, PA
Cornell
Efficiency #135
2025-26: 15-13 · 8-7 conf
@
Lehigh
Efficiency #273
2025-26: 18-17 · 14-7 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · 7:00 PM ET
80.9
win 55%
Projected
79.4
win 45%
No line posted yet.
Model: COR −1.5 · total 160.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Lehigh 67.8, Cornell 70.9 → 70.4 possessions
+4.6
Lehigh offense vs Cornell defense
+1.0
Cornell offense vs Lehigh defense
+6.6
Projected total
160.4
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Lehigh offense vs Cornell defense
+1.0
Cornell offense vs Lehigh defense
−6.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Cornell by 1.5
1.5
Cornell side ◂▸ Lehigh side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Lehigh.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cornell is the faster team (71.3, #40 of 365) and Lehigh the slower (66.5, #275). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
160.4
model
Projected team totals
80.9 / 79.4
Cornell / Lehigh
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.9#19
Cornell
67.8#221
Lehigh

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageCornell
Where Cornell scores: shooting
Cornell shoots an effective 58.5% (#7); Lehigh allows 50.6% (#133). Expect about 55.1%, 3.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageLehigh
Where Lehigh scores: shooting
Lehigh shoots an effective 52.9% (#107); Cornell allows 55.9% (#343). Expect about 54.6%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.7 points per 100 possessions.
GlassLehigh
Lehigh gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.5% is worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions against Lehigh's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Cornell, Cornell's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Cornell at about 44.2% of its shots from three, Lehigh about 37.7%.
ClashCornell
Style clash: 3-point volume
Cornell takes 51.6% of its shots from three; Lehigh runs teams off the line (31.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 44.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashCornell
Style clash: ball movement
Cornell assists on 66.7% of its made baskets; Lehigh breaks up passing offenses (assists on 44.5% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 56.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Cornell has the ball
OffenseLehigh allowsvs D1 avg
58.5% #7
50.6% #133
+5.5 pt/100
16.0% #139
16.2% #213
+1.0 pt/100
30.2% #193
31.4% #226
+0.2 pt/100
30.2% #304
32.5% #115
-0.5 pt/100
74.1% #124
—
+0.2 pt/100
Cornell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.4 pts/100
Lehigh has the ball
OffenseCornell allowsvs D1 avg
52.9% #107
55.9% #343
+4.7 pt/100
17.7% #252
15.1% #279
+0.7 pt/100
23.2% #349
30.6% #187
-3.0 pt/100
31.8% #258
37.2% #244
-0.0 pt/100
72.6% #180
—
+0.0 pt/100
Lehigh net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Cornelloffense vsLehighdefense
Share of shots by zone
Cornell shoots
Lehigh allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.8%#7755.8%#8258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)51.5%#745.6%#31839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.5%#3140.9%#27438.0%
Three38.3%#1432.9%#10933.7%
Lehighoffense vsCornelldefense
Share of shots by zone
Lehigh shoots
Cornell allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.6%#8260.7%#25658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.7%#22944.6%#28539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.8%#11641.7%#29338.0%
Three36.1%#5637.5%#34933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Cornell
−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#281 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#193
Def reb %
69.4%
#187
Turnover %
16.0%
#139
Forced TO %
15.1%
#279
FT rate
30.2%
#304
FT allowed
37.2%
#244
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Lehigh
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#320 of 365
Off reb %
23.2%
#349
Def reb %
68.6%
#226
Turnover %
17.7%
#252
Forced TO %
16.2%
#213
FT rate
31.8%
#258
FT allowed
32.5%
#115
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.3
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.4
Foul shots drawn−0.8
Foul shots allowed+0.7

Cornell has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.4 (#281 of 365) to Lehigh’s −3.7 (#320).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Cornell2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
31Cooper NoardGSr6'2"28-2827.518.23.32.01.661.6%37.6%7.690.3%31.6%
8Adam HintonGSr6'4"28-2824.612.53.11.91.359.1%41.5%4.877.6%26.1%
5Jacob BecclesGJr6'3"28-2723.47.72.53.11.352.9%32.8%2.267.3%19.8%
22Jake FiegenGSr6'4"24-1726.117.15.12.11.264.9%41.4%5.577.2%30.4%
21Kaspar SeppFJr6'7"28-1518.84.85.52.61.350.5%23.8%0.866.0%17.2%
24Josh BaldwinGSr6'5"26-1319.07.44.13.21.752.2%33.9%2.370.0%24.9%
7Anthony NimaniGSo6'4"22-017.35.41.61.91.065.5%52.0%1.184.6%16.4%
23DJ NixFSr6'6"27-1112.33.51.71.10.753.8%37.3%1.956.3%17.4%
4Gioacchino PanziniFSo6'5"26-010.83.92.00.60.577.6%50.0%0.957.1%15.9%
14Corbin ZentnerGSr5'9"24-111.63.30.90.80.357.8%38.6%2.466.7%14.6%
0DaMaryon FishburnGJr6'5"21-08.62.52.01.50.783.3%58.3%0.657.1%14.2%
10Mateen RafiqGSo6'0"18-09.34.31.31.50.366.4%46.3%2.371.4%20.2%
2Ian ImegwuFJr6'9"15-05.74.91.30.90.269.2%48.9%3.050.0%34.4%
3Jax AbalosFFr6'8"12-06.42.80.40.30.253.6%27.3%1.880.0%21.7%
55AJ LaBeauFJr6'10"10-04.10.71.21.00.533.3%0.0%0.133.3%19.3%
12Ryan BurbachGFr6'3"5-08.22.61.60.20.431.6%15.4%2.6100.0%27.3%
11Ty IwanonkiwFSo6'9"3-07.74.01.00.70.066.7%44.4%3.0—19.2%
13AJ RodriguezGSo6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Blake LecklitnerFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Elijah GriffinGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
CornellLehigh
Efficiency
116.2
104.1
114.3
110.0
70.9
67.8
—
—
Shooting
58.5%
52.9%
59.7%
52.2%
38.3%
36.1%
74.1%
72.6%
30.2%
31.8%
Ball control & glass
16.0%
17.7%
15.1%
16.2%
30.2%
23.2%
30.6%
31.4%
9.1%
12.2%
9.6%
8.3%
Style
51.6%
38.3%
38.9%
41.2%
14.4%
13.4%
66.7%
54.3%
41.9%
25.4%
Roster
3.37
2.23
6'3.9"
6'5.4"
—
83.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Cornell
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Lehigh
Returning minutes: 83.1%Returning production: 77.0%
Lost
  • Nasir Whitlock 35.0 mpg, 20.5 ppg · transferred to Georgia Tech
Added
  • Caesar Burrows no D1 minutes last season
  • Bube Momah no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.