CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceAlumni Gymnasium (Rider), Lawrenceville, NJAmerica East-Metro Challenge
New Hampshire
Efficiency #340
2025-26: 9-21 · 5-12 conf
@
Rider
Efficiency #356
2025-26: 4-25 · 3-17 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · 7:00 PM ET
69.8
win 45%
Projected
71.3
win 55%
No line posted yet.
Model: RID −1.5 · total 141.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Rider 67.2, New Hampshire 68.3 → 67.2 possessions
−2.4
Rider offense vs New Hampshire defense
−3.6
New Hampshire offense vs Rider defense
−1.2
Projected total
141.0
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Rider offense vs New Hampshire defense
−3.6
New Hampshire offense vs Rider defense
+1.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Rider by 1.5
1.5
New Hampshire side ◂▸ Rider side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Rider.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, New Hampshire is the faster team (67.1, #237 of 365) and Rider the slower (65.7, #309). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
141.0
model
Projected team totals
69.8 / 71.3
New Hampshire / Rider
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.3#184
New Hampshire
67.2#273
Rider
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageRider
Where Rider struggles: shooting
Rider shoots an effective 42.8% (#365); New Hampshire allows 53.4% (#282). Expect about 47.5%, 3.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.4 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Rider averages 65.7 possessions per 40, New Hampshire 67.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashRider
Style match: ball movement
Rider creates off the dribble (assists on 44.3% of its baskets); New Hampshire breaks up passing offenses (assists on 48.0% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 44.3% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Rider, New Hampshire, Rider's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect New Hampshire at about 42.7% of its shots from three, Rider about 28.2%.
New Hampshire has the ball
OffenseRider allowsvs D1 avg
46.7% #344
55.2% #335
-1.0 pt/100
16.5% #168
15.3% #268
+1.3 pt/100
25.7% #329
32.8% #294
-1.3 pt/100
28.5% #338
32.5% #116
-0.6 pt/100
65.1% #359
—
-0.6 pt/100
New Hampshire net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.1 pts/100
Rider has the ball
OffenseNew Hampshire allowsvs D1 avg
42.8% #365
53.4% #282
-5.4 pt/100
16.9% #196
15.8% #231
+0.7 pt/100
32.6% #101
26.9% #32
-0.1 pt/100
30.1% #307
35.8% #206
-0.2 pt/100
70.1% #270
—
-0.2 pt/100
Rider net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersNew Hampshireoffense vsRiderdefense
Share of shots by zone
New Hampshire shoots
41.4
5.6
9.6
43.3
Rider allows
44.5
4.5
10.5
40.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 52.2%#347 | 57.0%#111 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.6%#255 | 40.6%#203 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 31.4%#344 | 44.7%#346 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.5%#333 | 37.9%#356 | 33.7% |
Rideroffense vsNew Hampshiredefense
Share of shots by zone
Rider shoots
37.7
6.5
28.6
27.2
New Hampshire allows
43.8
7.4
12.0
36.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 49.2%#364 | 59.3%#202 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.5%#130 | 46.2%#321 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.9%#227 | 40.6%#262 | 38.0% |
| Three | 27.7%#365 | 34.3%#204 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNew Hampshire
−2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#288 of 365
Off reb %
25.7%
#329
Def reb %
73.1%
#32
Turnover %
16.5%
#168
Forced TO %
15.8%
#231
FT rate
28.5%
#338
FT allowed
35.8%
#206
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.5
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed−0.2
Rider
−1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#258 of 365
Off reb %
32.6%
#101
Def reb %
67.2%
#294
Turnover %
16.9%
#196
Forced TO %
15.3%
#268
FT rate
30.1%
#307
FT allowed
32.5%
#116
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.7
Rider has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.6 (#258 of 365) to New Hampshire’s −2.6 (#288).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
New Hampshire2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Davide Poser | F | Jr | 6'4" | 30-30 | 28.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 47.6% | 32.6% | 5.8 | 66.7% | 16.3% | |
| 7 | John Squire | F | So | 6'8" | 30-30 | 26.7 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 60.0% | 26.7% | 0.5 | 62.3% | 13.6% | |
| 23 | Belal El Shakery | F | Jr | 6'8" | 29-29 | 26.6 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 43.3% | 5.9% | 1.2 | 49.1% | 33.1% | |
| 0 | Tyler Bike | G | Fr | 5'10" | 30-15 | 23.8 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 50.5% | 37.5% | 4.8 | 70.8% | 19.6% | |
| 8 | KiJan Robinson | G | Jr | 6'3" | 26-17 | 25.5 | 10.7 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 47.3% | 30.3% | 3.8 | 82.7% | 27.1% | |
| 5 | R.J. Kennedy | G | Fr | 6'1" | 30-5 | 19.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 45.6% | 31.0% | 2.9 | 70.6% | 19.7% | |
| 10 | Comeh Emuobor | G | Jr | 6'5" | 28-1 | 18.9 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 41.7% | 10.7% | 1.0 | 65.1% | 35.4% | |
| 6 | Giannos Xanthopoulos | C | Fr | 6'10" | 29-0 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 47.5% | 30.8% | 0.4 | 91.7% | 17.6% | |
| 24 | Jon O'Neill | F | So | 6'9" | 15-0 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 75.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 9.3% | |
| 4 | Myles Blackley | G | Fr | 6'4" | 11-0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 15.4% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 21.3% | |
| 3 | Dylan Saunders | F | Jr | 6'8" | 12-0 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 81.8% | 60.0% | 0.8 | 100.0% | 19.8% | |
| 14 | Antoni Siewruk | G | So | 6'9" | 5-0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.6 | 0.0% | 23.9% | |
| 11 | Nick Sanford | G | So | 6'1" | 6-0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.0% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Rider2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mark Butlerat Lafayette | G | Sr | 5'10" | 32-32 | 33.9 | 10.7 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 43.7% | 25.0% | 0.6 | 76.0% | 20.9% | |
| 22 | Khalil Farmerat UMass Lowell | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-0 | 14.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 43.2% | 32.1% | 1.7 | 61.7% | 18.3% | |
| 55 | Bryce Bakerat Charleston | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 13.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 26.1% | 10.5% | 2.4 | 50.0% | 14.9% | |
| 23 | Horace Simmons Jr.at Drexel | F | Jr | 6'6" | 13-0 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 32.8% | 18.8% | 1.2 | 75.0% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Ty Bevinsat G Washington | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 42.1% | 26.7% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 17.0% | |
| 13 | Rich Briscoat Akron | F | So | 6'8" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 27.2% | |
| 14 | Kam Wylieat 2598 | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Bryce Presley | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | JJ Washington | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Mikes Connelly | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Nasir Washington | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Richie Rosa | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Segun Ezekiel Obe | F | So | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Stephen Avegah Semey | C | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Bryce Baker (from Charleston), Ty Bevins (from G Washington), Rich Brisco (from Akron), Mark Butler (from Lafayette), Khalil Farmer (from UMass Lowell), Horace Simmons Jr. (from Drexel), Kam Wylie (from 2598)
New Hampshire2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Davide Poser | F | Jr | 6'4" | 30-30 | 28.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 47.6% | 32.6% | 5.8 | 66.7% | 16.3% | |
| 7 | John Squire | F | So | 6'8" | 30-30 | 26.7 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 60.0% | 26.7% | 0.5 | 62.3% | 13.6% | |
| 23 | Belal El Shakery | F | Jr | 6'8" | 29-29 | 26.6 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 43.3% | 5.9% | 1.2 | 49.1% | 33.1% | |
| 0 | Tyler Bike | G | Fr | 5'10" | 30-15 | 23.8 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 50.5% | 37.5% | 4.8 | 70.8% | 19.6% | |
| 8 | KiJan Robinson | G | Jr | 6'3" | 26-17 | 25.5 | 10.7 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 47.3% | 30.3% | 3.8 | 82.7% | 27.1% | |
| 5 | R.J. Kennedy | G | Fr | 6'1" | 30-5 | 19.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 45.6% | 31.0% | 2.9 | 70.6% | 19.7% | |
| 10 | Comeh Emuobor | G | Jr | 6'5" | 28-1 | 18.9 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 41.7% | 10.7% | 1.0 | 65.1% | 35.4% | |
| 6 | Giannos Xanthopoulos | C | Fr | 6'10" | 29-0 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 47.5% | 30.8% | 0.4 | 91.7% | 17.6% | |
| 24 | Jon O'Neill | F | So | 6'9" | 15-0 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 75.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 9.3% | |
| 4 | Myles Blackley | G | Fr | 6'4" | 11-0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 15.4% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 21.3% | |
| 3 | Dylan Saunders | F | Jr | 6'8" | 12-0 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 81.8% | 60.0% | 0.8 | 100.0% | 19.8% | |
| 14 | Antoni Siewruk | G | So | 6'9" | 5-0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.6 | 0.0% | 23.9% | |
| 11 | Nick Sanford | G | So | 6'1" | 6-0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.0% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26New Hampshire
Against the spread
Season
12-16
Home
4-7
Road
8-9
Last 10
1-9
avg cover −9.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-13
Home
7-4
Road
8-9
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +5.4
Over 3 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | UMBC | A | L 69–84 | +13.0 | L−2.0 | 142.0 | O153 | 106.0 | 129.1 | 65.1 |
| Mar 3 | Bryant | H | W 88–83 2OT | −1.0 | W+4.0 | 135.5 | O171 | 112.7 | 106.3 | 78.1 |
| Feb 28 | UAlbany | A | L 61–84 | +3.0 | L−20.0 | 139.0 | O145 | 91.0 | 125.3 | 67.0 |
| Feb 26 | Binghamton | A | L 63–65 | −3.0 | L−5.0 | 141.5 | U128 | 100.5 | 103.7 | 62.7 |
| Feb 21 | Maine | H | L 58–61 | −3.5 | L−6.5 | 136.0 | U119 | 89.2 | 93.8 | 65.0 |
| Feb 19 | UMass Lowell | A | L 56–78 | +3.5 | L−18.5 | 151.0 | U134 | 79.5 | 110.7 | 70.5 |
| Feb 14 | UMBC | H | L 63–85 | +2.0 | L−20.0 | 144.0 | O148 | 91.6 | 123.6 | 68.8 |
| Feb 12 | NJIT | H | L 70–76 | −2.5 | L−8.5 | 143.5 | O146 | 104.8 | 113.8 | 66.8 |
| Feb 7 | Vermont | A | L 57–80 | +10.0 | L−13.0 | 138.0 | U137 | 84.0 | 117.9 | 67.8 |
| Jan 31 | Bryant | A | L 84–92 | +1.0 | L−7.0 | 132.5 | O176 | 113.6 | 124.4 | 73.9 |
Rider
Against the spread
Season
9-17-2
Home
3-8-1
Road
6-9-1
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −3.9
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
9-19
Home
4-8
Road
5-11
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +4.0
Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 | Siena | A | L 61–76 | +14.5 | L−0.5 | 137.5 | U137 | 91.6 | 114.2 | 66.6 |
| Feb 27 | Iona | A | L 58–80 | +11.5 | L−10.5 | 141.0 | U138 | 80.9 | 111.5 | 71.7 |
| Feb 22 | Niagara | H | W 67–62 | +2.0 | W+7.0 | 130.5 | U129 | 103.3 | 95.5 | 64.9 |
| Feb 20 | Canisius | H | L 66–72 | −1.0 | L−7.0 | 131.0 | O138 | 97.8 | 106.7 | 67.5 |
| Feb 15 | Sacred Heart | A | L 75–86 | +9.0 | L−2.0 | 146.5 | O161 | 108.6 | 124.5 | 69.1 |
| Feb 13 | Mount St Marys | H | L 55–65 | +5.0 | L−5.0 | 138.5 | U120 | 84.7 | 100.1 | 64.9 |
| Feb 7 | Merrimack | H | L 47–73 | +8.5 | L−17.5 | 137.5 | U120 | 81.8 | 127.1 | 57.5 |
| Feb 5 | Marist | A | L 52–81 | +14.0 | L−15.0 | 135.5 | U133 | 88.1 | 137.2 | 59.0 |
| Feb 1 | Saint Peter's | H | W 81–78 | +7.5 | W+10.5 | 136.0 | O159 | 124.1 | 119.5 | 65.3 |
| Jan 30 | Manhattan | A | L 90–95 | +6.0 | W+1.0 | 146.0 | O185 | 133.6 | 141.1 | 67.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNew HampshireRider
Efficiency
100.1
100.0
111.6
115.1
68.3
67.2
—
—
Shooting
46.7%
42.8%
47.4%
43.3%
30.5%
27.7%
65.1%
70.1%
28.5%
30.1%
Ball control & glass
16.5%
16.9%
15.8%
15.3%
25.7%
32.6%
26.9%
32.8%
9.1%
9.9%
11.3%
8.3%
Style
43.1%
27.5%
45.7%
43.2%
11.4%
12.6%
44.3%
44.3%
32.9%
33.0%
Roster
2.25
3.88
6'4.4"
6'0.8"
86.4%
0.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNew Hampshire
Returning minutes: 86.4%Returning production: 86.0%
Lost
- Jack Graham 28.0 mpg, 11.2 ppg · transferred to Marist
Added
Nobody of note.
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Rider
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Flash Burton 32.1 mpg, 15.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Zion Cruz 30.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Caleb Smith 29.8 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Shemani Fuller 21.4 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Davis Bynum 18.3 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cole McCabe 12.2 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Mark Butler from Lafayette · 33.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
- Khalil Farmer from UMass Lowell · 14.2 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
- Bryce Baker from Charleston · 3.3 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Horace Simmons Jr. from Drexel · 2.7 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
- Ty Bevins from G Washington · 2.2 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
- Rich Brisco from Akron · 0.7 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.