CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceAvron B. Fogelman Arena in the Devlin Fieldhouse, New Orleans, LA
Jackson St
Efficiency #353
2025-26: 12-21 · 11-9 conf
@
Tulane
Efficiency #239
2025-26: 18-15 · 9-11 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · TBD
69.4
win 16%
Projected
81.1
win 84%
No line posted yet.
Model: TULN −11.7 · total 150.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Tulane 68.0, Jackson St 69.8 → 69.4 possessions
+2.4
Tulane offense vs Jackson St defense
+3.8
Jackson St offense vs Tulane defense
−4.0
Projected total
150.5
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Tulane offense vs Jackson St defense
+3.8
Jackson St offense vs Tulane defense
+4.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Tulane by 11.7
11.7
Jackson St side ◂▸ Tulane side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.4 against a projected 150.5, and the margin steps add to +11.8 against +11.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Tulane.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Jackson St is the faster team (71.0, #51 of 365) and Tulane the slower (67.9, #203). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.5
model
Projected team totals
69.4 / 81.1
Jackson St / Tulane
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.8#65
Jackson St
68.0#212
Tulane
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageJackson St
Where Jackson St struggles: shooting
Jackson St shoots an effective 45.7% (#354); Tulane allows 50.7% (#140). Expect about 47.7%, 3.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.0 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseTulane
Tulane's shot-blocking
Tulane ranks #29 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.0% of Jackson St's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
TurnoversJackson St
Jackson St turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Jackson St's offense.
Jackson St has the ball
OffenseTulane allowsvs D1 avg
45.7% #354
50.7% #140
-5.0 pt/100
19.4% #336
17.1% #140
-2.1 pt/100
29.7% #215
35.8% #352
+1.3 pt/100
37.4% #117
38.1% #262
+0.4 pt/100
75.8% #55
—
+0.3 pt/100
Jackson St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.2 pts/100
Tulane has the ball
OffenseJackson St allowsvs D1 avg
49.4% #275
53.0% #267
-0.3 pt/100
15.4% #97
16.5% #185
+1.2 pt/100
22.8% #352
37.2% #359
-1.2 pt/100
43.5% #14
41.9% #319
+1.0 pt/100
76.7% #40
—
+0.4 pt/100
Tulane net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersJackson Stoffense vsTulanedefense
Share of shots by zone
Jackson St shoots
31.3
5.4
20.2
43.1
Tulane allows
40.6
6.9
12.8
39.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 52.1%#348 | 54.5%#49 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.0%#121 | 42.4%#236 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.4%#305 | 36.8%#124 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.4%#311 | 34.5%#216 | 33.7% |
Tulaneoffense vsJackson Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Tulane shoots
37.2
4.0
14.5
44.4
Jackson St allows
40.9
5.8
13.8
39.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.0%#162 | 60.9%#266 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 27.0%#362 | 29.3%#12 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 32.6%#335 | 31.1%#11 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.0%#279 | 34.8%#236 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersJackson St
−5.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#350 of 365
Off reb %
29.7%
#215
Def reb %
62.8%
#359
Turnover %
19.4%
#336
Forced TO %
16.5%
#185
FT rate
37.4%
#117
FT allowed
41.9%
#319
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−2.1
Ball security−1.8
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−1.7
Tulane
−1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#255 of 365
Off reb %
22.8%
#352
Def reb %
64.2%
#352
Turnover %
15.4%
#97
Forced TO %
17.1%
#140
FT rate
43.5%
#14
FT allowed
38.1%
#262
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.5
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn+2.2
Foul shots allowed−0.7
Tulane has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.5 (#255 of 365) to Jackson St’s −5.4 (#350).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Jackson St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Jackson St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jayme Mitchell Jr. | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-31 | 32.8 | 14.5 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 47.3% | 33.2% | 5.9 | 78.7% | 27.5% | |
| 24 | Daeshun Ruffin | G | Sr | 5'10" | 28-28 | 33.5 | 23.3 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 47.2% | 30.9% | 5.0 | 84.3% | 41.5% | |
| 1 | Dorian McMillian | G | So | 6'3" | 28-24 | 29.5 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 47.2% | 32.8% | 6.2 | 75.0% | 26.4% | |
| 4 | Devin Ree | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-18 | 20.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 43.6% | 27.6% | 3.0 | 88.2% | 17.9% | |
| 0 | Tamarion Hoover | G | So | 6'4" | 30-4 | 19.8 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 52.4% | 34.7% | 3.9 | 87.5% | 16.6% | |
| 12 | Delyle Williams | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-5 | 17.2 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 33.5% | 25.6% | 1.4 | 60.0% | 16.3% | |
| 20 | Raevon Thomas | F | Sr | 6'9" | 25-15 | 17.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 59.5% | 38.9% | 0.7 | 56.0% | 11.7% | |
| 8 | Dionjahe Thomas | F | Jr | 6'8" | 23-19 | 18.4 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 48.3% | 33.3% | 0.1 | 56.4% | 19.0% | |
| 2 | Jalen Tatum | G | Jr | 6'4" | 11-6 | 26.5 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 39.8% | 41.7% | 1.1 | 63.0% | 21.0% | |
| 21 | Kobe Butler | F | Fr | 6'7" | 27-4 | 10.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 39.6% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 83.3% | 12.8% | |
| 10 | Ebo Wilson | C | So | 6'10" | 18-7 | 10.8 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 28.6% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 10.3% | |
| 11 | Mike Williams | G | Fr | 6'2" | 8-3 | 19.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 28.4% | 15.0% | 2.5 | 83.3% | 26.6% | |
| 9 | Deyan Kolev | F | Fr | 6'9" | 17-1 | 7.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 33.3% | 18.2% | 0.6 | 50.0% | 12.8% | |
| 7 | Kedrick Simmons | F | Fr | 6'6" | 8-0 | 11.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 40.0% | 25.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 12.5% | |
| 13 | Cael Jones | G | Fr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 100.0% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 19.5% | |
| 5 | Keiveon Hunt | G | Sr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Tulane2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Tulane's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rowan Brumbaugh | G | Jr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 36.1 | 19.2 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 52.8% | 36.0% | 5.3 | 80.4% | 29.9% | |
| 99 | Curtis Williams Jr. | G | Jr | 6'6" | 33-32 | 32.1 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 49.4% | 33.5% | 6.2 | 82.5% | 24.4% | |
| 22 | Asher Woods | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-31 | 30.9 | 12.8 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 45.7% | 27.2% | 3.5 | 85.0% | 25.5% | |
| 5 | Scotty Middleton | F | Jr | 6'6" | 33-19 | 25.7 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 52.7% | 36.9% | 4.3 | 73.9% | 16.5% | |
| 0 | Tyler Ringgold | F | So | 6'8" | 32-32 | 24.8 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 49.3% | 29.9% | 2.4 | 62.8% | 24.4% | |
| 23 | Percy Daniels | C | Sr | 6'10" | 32-4 | 16.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 62.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 72.4% | 8.0% | |
| 9 | KJ Greene | G | So | 6'3" | 32-1 | 15.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 40.1% | 22.5% | 1.3 | 78.9% | 20.6% | |
| 1 | Josiah Moore | G | So | 6'4" | 32-2 | 12.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 48.4% | 15.8% | 0.6 | 67.5% | 19.3% | |
| 11 | Luke Rasmussen | G | So | 6'8" | 17-11 | 15.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 46.6% | 23.3% | 1.8 | 27.3% | 13.6% | |
| 55 | Davion Bradford | C | Sr | 7'0" | 11-0 | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 75.0% | 11.7% | |
| 15 | Robert Moore | G | Fr | 6'6" | 5-0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.4% | 25.0% | 1.6 | — | 40.0% | |
| 34 | Jake Shapiro | G | Jr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 112.5% | 75.0% | 0.8 | — | 38.9% | |
| 32 | Luke Cronin | F | Jr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 19.9% | |
| 77 | Vasilije Kuridza | F | Fr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 13 | Joseph Teich | G | So | 5'10" | 2-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Jackson St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Jackson St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jayme Mitchell Jr. | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-31 | 32.8 | 14.5 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 47.3% | 33.2% | 5.9 | 78.7% | 27.5% | |
| 24 | Daeshun Ruffin | G | Sr | 5'10" | 28-28 | 33.5 | 23.3 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 47.2% | 30.9% | 5.0 | 84.3% | 41.5% | |
| 1 | Dorian McMillian | G | So | 6'3" | 28-24 | 29.5 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 47.2% | 32.8% | 6.2 | 75.0% | 26.4% | |
| 4 | Devin Ree | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-18 | 20.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 43.6% | 27.6% | 3.0 | 88.2% | 17.9% | |
| 0 | Tamarion Hoover | G | So | 6'4" | 30-4 | 19.8 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 52.4% | 34.7% | 3.9 | 87.5% | 16.6% | |
| 12 | Delyle Williams | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-5 | 17.2 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 33.5% | 25.6% | 1.4 | 60.0% | 16.3% | |
| 20 | Raevon Thomas | F | Sr | 6'9" | 25-15 | 17.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 59.5% | 38.9% | 0.7 | 56.0% | 11.7% | |
| 8 | Dionjahe Thomas | F | Jr | 6'8" | 23-19 | 18.4 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 48.3% | 33.3% | 0.1 | 56.4% | 19.0% | |
| 2 | Jalen Tatum | G | Jr | 6'4" | 11-6 | 26.5 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 39.8% | 41.7% | 1.1 | 63.0% | 21.0% | |
| 21 | Kobe Butler | F | Fr | 6'7" | 27-4 | 10.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 39.6% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 83.3% | 12.8% | |
| 10 | Ebo Wilson | C | So | 6'10" | 18-7 | 10.8 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 28.6% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 10.3% | |
| 11 | Mike Williams | G | Fr | 6'2" | 8-3 | 19.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 28.4% | 15.0% | 2.5 | 83.3% | 26.6% | |
| 9 | Deyan Kolev | F | Fr | 6'9" | 17-1 | 7.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 33.3% | 18.2% | 0.6 | 50.0% | 12.8% | |
| 7 | Kedrick Simmons | F | Fr | 6'6" | 8-0 | 11.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 40.0% | 25.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 12.5% | |
| 13 | Cael Jones | G | Fr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 100.0% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 19.5% | |
| 5 | Keiveon Hunt | G | Sr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Jackson St
Against the spread
Season
12-20-1
Home
6-3-1
Road
5-14
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −1.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-16-1
Home
6-3-1
Road
8-11
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total +0.2
Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Florida A&M | N | L 60–70 | +6.5 | L−3.5 | 142.5 | U130 | 85.7 | 100.0 | 70.0 |
| Mar 10 | Grambling | N | W 68–65 | +7.0 | W+10.0 | 140.5 | U133 | 99.1 | 94.7 | 68.6 |
| Mar 5 | Miss Valley St | H | W 85–77 | −11.5 | L−3.5 | 145.0 | O162 | 128.8 | 116.7 | 66.0 |
| Mar 3 | AR-Pine Bluff | H | W 81–78 | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 153.0 | O159 | 116.8 | 112.5 | 69.3 |
| Feb 28 | Texas Southern | A | L 57–82 | +6.0 | L−19.0 | 152.0 | U139 | 80.3 | 115.5 | 71.0 |
| Feb 26 | Prairie View | A | L 76–85 OT | +4.5 | L−4.5 | 161.5 | U161 | 102.1 | 114.2 | 74.4 |
| Feb 21 | Alcorn St | A | L 65–83 | +1.0 | L−17.0 | 149.0 | U148 | 90.7 | 115.8 | 71.7 |
| Feb 16 | Bethune | H | W 91–86 | +5.0 | W+10.0 | 150.0 | O177 | 118.0 | 111.5 | 77.2 |
| Feb 14 | Florida A&M | H | W 80–60 | +2.0 | W+22.0 | 144.0 | U140 | 115.2 | 86.4 | 69.4 |
| Feb 9 | AR-Pine Bluff | A | L 63–84 | +6.5 | L−14.5 | 156.5 | U147 | 96.1 | 128.1 | 65.5 |
Tulane
Against the spread
Season
15-17
Home
7-10
Road
6-4
Last 10
6-4
avg cover −3.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-18
Home
6-11
Road
5-5
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −0.9
Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | Charlotte | N | L 60–74 | +1.0 | L−13.0 | 144.5 | U134 | 98.3 | 121.3 | 61.0 |
| Mar 11 | Memphis | N | W 81–69 | +4.5 | W+16.5 | 150.5 | U150 | 114.8 | 97.8 | 70.5 |
| Mar 8 | Memphis | H | L 95–96 OT | +2.5 | W+1.5 | 154.0 | O191 | 122.9 | 124.2 | 77.3 |
| Mar 5 | Temple | A | L 60–89 | +5.0 | L−24.0 | 145.0 | O149 | 89.1 | 132.2 | 67.3 |
| Mar 1 | South Florida | A | L 62–90 | +15.0 | L−13.0 | 154.5 | U152 | 85.1 | 123.5 | 72.8 |
| Feb 25 | Tulsa | H | L 56–90 | +5.5 | L−28.5 | 156.5 | U146 | 84.4 | 135.6 | 66.4 |
| Feb 22 | Rice | H | W 81–75 | −5.0 | W+1.0 | 147.5 | O156 | 118.1 | 109.3 | 68.6 |
| Feb 19 | North Texas | A | W 77–71 | +6.5 | W+12.5 | 137.5 | O148 | 117.4 | 108.3 | 65.6 |
| Feb 15 | UAB | A | W 55–54 | +7.0 | W+8.0 | 152.5 | U109 | 87.7 | 86.1 | 62.7 |
| Feb 11 | Temple | H | W 77–66 | −2.0 | W+9.0 | 145.0 | U143 | 113.4 | 97.2 | 67.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeJackson StTulane
Efficiency
101.0
106.8
115.6
110.2
69.8
68.0
—
—
Shooting
45.7%
49.4%
44.6%
50.5%
31.4%
32.0%
75.8%
76.7%
37.4%
43.5%
Ball control & glass
19.4%
15.4%
16.5%
17.1%
29.7%
22.8%
37.2%
35.8%
11.1%
8.7%
12.4%
10.9%
Style
43.3%
45.0%
34.3%
37.1%
15.2%
10.8%
45.8%
54.8%
32.0%
26.0%
Roster
2.87
2.94
6'4.6"
6'5.5"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputJackson St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Jackson St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Tulane
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Tulane's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.