CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceHumphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS
N'Western St
Efficiency #299
2025-26: 10-22 · 8-15 conf
@
Mississippi St
Efficiency #144
2025-26: 13-19 · 5-14 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · TBD
68.4
win 20%
Projected
78.3
win 80%
No line posted yet.
Model: MSST −9.9 · total 146.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Mississippi St 69.8, N'Western St 66.6 → 68.1 possessions
−0.5
Mississippi St offense vs N'Western St defense
+2.5
N'Western St offense vs Mississippi St defense
−3.5
Projected total
146.7
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Mississippi St offense vs N'Western St defense
+2.5
N'Western St offense vs Mississippi St defense
+3.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Mississippi St by 9.9
9.9
N'Western St side ◂▸ Mississippi St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Mississippi St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Mississippi St is the faster team (71.5, #32 of 365) and N'Western St the slower (65.2, #329). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.7
model
Projected team totals
68.4 / 78.3
N'Western St / Mississippi St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.6#314
N'Western St
69.8#66
Mississippi St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Tempo tug-of-war
Mississippi St averages 71.5 possessions per 40, N'Western St 65.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageN'Western St
Where N'Western St struggles: shooting
N'Western St shoots an effective 48.6% (#301); Mississippi St allows 50.9% (#154). Expect about 49.5%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversN'Western St
N'Western St protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.1% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for N'Western St's offense.
GlassN'Western St
N'Western St gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.5% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against N'Western St's offense.
N'Western St has the ball
OffenseMississippi St allowsvs D1 avg
48.6% #301
50.9% #154
-2.5 pt/100
18.3% #288
12.8% #358
+2.1 pt/100
26.1% #321
30.7% #190
-1.8 pt/100
40.1% #58
32.3% #112
+0.1 pt/100
74.0% #135
—
+0.1 pt/100
N'Western St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100
Mississippi St has the ball
OffenseN'Western St allowsvs D1 avg
51.5% #172
53.0% #270
+1.5 pt/100
16.1% #146
16.9% #163
+0.4 pt/100
29.8% #210
32.6% #286
+0.4 pt/100
30.7% #288
36.3% #218
-0.2 pt/100
66.0% #353
—
-0.6 pt/100
Mississippi St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersN'Western Stoffense vsMississippi Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
N'Western St shoots
37.7
9.9
19.1
33.3
Mississippi St allows
32.7
5.5
22.0
39.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.7%#323 | 59.3%#207 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.3%#168 | 49.0%#348 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.6%#64 | 37.0%#131 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.2%#218 | 33.9%#179 | 33.7% |
Mississippi Stoffense vsN'Western Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Mississippi St shoots
32.8
7.7
20.2
39.3
N'Western St allows
38.8
8.4
14.8
37.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.2%#49 | 60.4%#247 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 46.3%#48 | 35.7%#83 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.1%#182 | 41.4%#289 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.4%#262 | 35.5%#278 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersN'Western St
−1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#266 of 365
Off reb %
26.1%
#321
Def reb %
67.4%
#286
Turnover %
18.3%
#288
Forced TO %
16.9%
#163
FT rate
40.1%
#58
FT allowed
36.3%
#218
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn+1.3
Foul shots allowed−0.3
Mississippi St
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#294 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#210
Def reb %
69.3%
#190
Turnover %
16.1%
#146
Forced TO %
12.8%
#358
FT rate
30.7%
#288
FT allowed
32.3%
#112
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−2.7
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.8
N'Western St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.9 (#266 of 365) to Mississippi St’s −2.8 (#294).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
N'Western St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Micah Thomas | G | Sr | 6'0" | 32-31 | 30.2 | 16.8 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 48.3% | 37.0% | 4.2 | 92.0% | 35.1% | |
| 11 | Chris Mubiru | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-28 | 26.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 50.6% | 27.7% | 2.9 | 84.9% | 16.2% | |
| 0 | Izzy Miles | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-19 | 24.4 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 49.6% | 39.7% | 2.3 | 72.7% | 27.8% | |
| 23 | Willie Williams | F | Sr | 6'6" | 26-26 | 29.8 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 62.0% | 50.0% | 0.2 | 44.4% | 19.8% | |
| 3 | Landyn Jumawan | G | Sr | 6'4" | 30-20 | 20.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 39.6% | 27.4% | 3.9 | 77.1% | 17.8% | |
| 4 | CJ Larry | PG | Fr | 6'3" | 25-16 | 18.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 37.7% | 46.7% | 0.6 | 53.6% | 15.5% | |
| 10 | Kordrick Turner | F | Jr | 6'6" | 32-6 | 13.7 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 53.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 59.7% | 18.9% | |
| 13 | Justin Redmond | G | So | 6'2" | 23-2 | 17.1 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 44.8% | 34.2% | 3.3 | 85.3% | 27.6% | |
| 1 | Chip Brunt | G | Jr | 6'5" | 29-2 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 58.2% | 53.8% | 0.4 | 73.0% | 18.3% | |
| 25 | Omar Adegbola | G | So | 6'4" | 21-2 | 14.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 44.5% | 28.1% | 1.5 | 82.5% | 24.4% | |
| 8 | Moustapha Loum | F | So | 6'10" | 21-4 | 11.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 61.8% | — | 0.0 | 36.4% | 13.7% | |
| 21 | J.C. Riley Jr. | C | Sr | 6'10" | 21-4 | 11.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 52.8% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 88.2% | 18.2% | |
| 33 | Quentin Bolton | G | Sr | 6'6" | 8-0 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 22.2% | 15.4% | 1.6 | — | 26.0% | |
| 15 | Seth Ned | G | Fr | 5'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Mississippi St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Josh Hubbard | G | Sr | 6'0" | 32-32 | 33.4 | 22.1 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 50.6% | 34.7% | 8.6 | 75.0% | 37.8% | |
| 11 | RJ Johnsonat Kennesaw St | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-22 | 28.1 | 14.5 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 52.7% | 42.3% | 3.8 | 63.4% | 29.9% | |
| 2 | Tajuan Simpkinsat Seton Hall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-2 | 25.1 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 47.9% | 37.0% | 3.0 | 77.5% | 24.0% | |
| 22 | ND Okaforat Washington St | C | Sr | 6'10" | 32-32 | 23.2 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 58.3% | — | 0.0 | 64.4% | 28.3% | |
| 13 | Kendyl Sandersat Utah | F | So | 6'8" | 32-0 | 20.1 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 55.4% | 40.3% | 2.4 | 38.7% | 15.9% | |
| 21 | Thomas Bassongat Florida St | F | So | 6'8" | 33-17 | 19.3 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 53.0% | 26.0% | 1.5 | 54.4% | 18.9% | |
| 24 | Ashton Mageeat Southern | G | So | 6'7" | 31-1 | 11.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 45.2% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 64.3% | 16.8% | |
| 1 | King Grace | G | So | 6'5" | 24-0 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 51.6% | 31.9% | 2.0 | 82.1% | 22.7% | |
| 8 | Cameren Paul | G | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 34 | Gai Chol | C | Sr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Tee Bartlett | C | So | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Jalyn Collingwood | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Trevor Reed | F | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Tristan Reed | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 99 | Willie Burnett III | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Thomas Bassong (from Florida St), RJ Johnson (from Kennesaw St), Ashton Magee (from Southern), ND Okafor (from Washington St), Kendyl Sanders (from Utah), Tajuan Simpkins (from Seton Hall)
N'Western St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Micah Thomas | G | Sr | 6'0" | 32-31 | 30.2 | 16.8 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 48.3% | 37.0% | 4.2 | 92.0% | 35.1% | |
| 11 | Chris Mubiru | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-28 | 26.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 50.6% | 27.7% | 2.9 | 84.9% | 16.2% | |
| 0 | Izzy Miles | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-19 | 24.4 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 49.6% | 39.7% | 2.3 | 72.7% | 27.8% | |
| 23 | Willie Williams | F | Sr | 6'6" | 26-26 | 29.8 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 62.0% | 50.0% | 0.2 | 44.4% | 19.8% | |
| 3 | Landyn Jumawan | G | Sr | 6'4" | 30-20 | 20.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 39.6% | 27.4% | 3.9 | 77.1% | 17.8% | |
| 4 | CJ Larry | PG | Fr | 6'3" | 25-16 | 18.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 37.7% | 46.7% | 0.6 | 53.6% | 15.5% | |
| 10 | Kordrick Turner | F | Jr | 6'6" | 32-6 | 13.7 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 53.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 59.7% | 18.9% | |
| 13 | Justin Redmond | G | So | 6'2" | 23-2 | 17.1 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 44.8% | 34.2% | 3.3 | 85.3% | 27.6% | |
| 1 | Chip Brunt | G | Jr | 6'5" | 29-2 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 58.2% | 53.8% | 0.4 | 73.0% | 18.3% | |
| 25 | Omar Adegbola | G | So | 6'4" | 21-2 | 14.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 44.5% | 28.1% | 1.5 | 82.5% | 24.4% | |
| 8 | Moustapha Loum | F | So | 6'10" | 21-4 | 11.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 61.8% | — | 0.0 | 36.4% | 13.7% | |
| 21 | J.C. Riley Jr. | C | Sr | 6'10" | 21-4 | 11.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 52.8% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 88.2% | 18.2% | |
| 33 | Quentin Bolton | G | Sr | 6'6" | 8-0 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 22.2% | 15.4% | 1.6 | — | 26.0% | |
| 15 | Seth Ned | G | Fr | 5'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26N'Western St
Against the spread
Season
17-13
Home
8-4
Road
9-8
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +0.1
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-15
Home
4-8
Road
11-6
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −11.8
Under 5 straightOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Nicholls | N | L 47–61 | +2.0 | L−12.0 | 139.0 | U108 | 79.8 | 103.5 | 58.9 |
| Mar 2 | UT Rio Grande | A | L 62–74 | +9.0 | L−3.0 | 139.0 | U136 | 96.0 | 114.6 | 64.6 |
| Feb 28 | Texas A&M-CC | A | L 59–71 | +6.0 | L−6.0 | 134.0 | U130 | 97.5 | 117.4 | 60.5 |
| Feb 23 | Incarnate Word | H | W 54–49 | −2.5 | W+2.5 | 138.0 | U103 | 89.9 | 81.6 | 60.1 |
| Feb 21 | Hou Christian | H | W 71–53 | −2.5 | W+15.5 | 133.5 | U124 | 112.1 | 83.6 | 63.4 |
| Feb 16 | McNeese | H | L 64–75 | +14.0 | W+3.0 | 137.5 | O139 | 100.9 | 118.2 | 63.5 |
| Feb 14 | SE Louisiana | H | W 69–66 | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 131.0 | O135 | 110.4 | 105.6 | 62.5 |
| Feb 9 | Lamar | A | W 70–68 | +7.5 | W+9.5 | 136.5 | O138 | 106.1 | 103.1 | 66.0 |
| Feb 7 | East Texas A&M | A | L 48–52 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 141.5 | U100 | 72.1 | 78.1 | 66.5 |
| Feb 4 | East Texas A&M | H | L 68–74 | −3.0 | L−9.0 | 143.0 | U142 | 107.6 | 117.1 | 63.2 |
Mississippi St
Against the spread
Season
10-22
Home
4-12
Road
5-5
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −5.7
Missed the spread 6 straightCovered 2 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-16
Home
5-11
Road
7-3
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +9.3
Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Auburn | N | L 61–79 | +7.5 | L−10.5 | 159.0 | U140 | 85.6 | 110.8 | 71.3 |
| Mar 7 | Georgia | H | L 96–102 | +5.0 | L−1.0 | 164.5 | O198 | 121.1 | 128.7 | 79.3 |
| Mar 3 | #5Florida | A | L 74–108 | +21.0 | L−13.0 | 160.5 | O182 | 98.6 | 143.9 | 75.1 |
| Feb 28 | Missouri | H | L 64–88 | +1.0 | L−23.0 | 154.5 | U152 | 93.0 | 127.9 | 68.8 |
| Feb 25 | #17Alabama | A | L 75–100 | +12.5 | L−12.5 | 175.5 | U175 | 98.8 | 131.7 | 75.9 |
| Feb 21 | South Carolina | A | L 89–97 | −1.0 | L−9.0 | 152.0 | O186 | 122.7 | 133.7 | 72.5 |
| Feb 18 | Auburn | H | W 91–85 | +5.5 | W+11.5 | 155.0 | O176 | 135.0 | 126.1 | 67.4 |
| Feb 14 | Ole Miss | A | W 90–78 | +4.0 | W+16.0 | 145.0 | O168 | 127.3 | 110.3 | 70.7 |
| Feb 11 | Tennessee | H | L 64–73 | +7.5 | L−1.5 | 147.0 | U137 | 91.6 | 104.5 | 69.9 |
| Feb 7 | #21Arkansas | H | L 68–88 | +6.0 | L−14.0 | 164.0 | U156 | 96.9 | 125.4 | 70.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeN'Western StMississippi St
Efficiency
104.1
109.4
111.3
107.8
66.6
69.8
—
—
Shooting
48.6%
51.5%
48.0%
53.4%
33.2%
32.4%
74.0%
66.0%
40.1%
30.7%
Ball control & glass
18.3%
16.1%
16.9%
12.8%
26.1%
29.8%
32.6%
30.7%
10.6%
9.5%
9.6%
11.0%
Style
33.9%
40.1%
40.8%
44.5%
12.4%
14.1%
50.7%
45.1%
36.8%
37.3%
Roster
3.12
3.30
6'4"
6'5.2"
—
21.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputN'Western St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Mississippi St
Returning minutes: 21.0%Returning production: 26.2%
Lost
- Jayden Epps 25.5 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Shawn Jones Jr. 25.2 mpg, 5.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ja'Borri McGhee 22.1 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jamarion Davis-Fleming 20.3 mpg, 3.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Quincy Ballard 20.2 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Achor Achor 17.7 mpg, 6.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- RJ Johnson from Kennesaw St · 27.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg last season
- Tajuan Simpkins from Seton Hall · 25.1 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
- ND Okafor from Washington St · 23.2 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Kendyl Sanders from Utah · 20.1 mpg, 5.2 ppg last season
- Thomas Bassong from Florida St · 19.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
- Ashton Magee from Southern · 10.3 mpg, 2.7 ppg last season
Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.