CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDraddy Gymnasium, Riverdale, NYAmerica East-Metro Challenge
UAlbany
Efficiency #306
2025-26: 11-21 · 7-10 conf
@
Manhattan
Efficiency #328
2025-26: 12-20 · 8-13 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · TBD
74.0
win 42%
Projected
76.4
win 58%
No line posted yet.
Model: MAN −2.4 · total 150.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Manhattan 68.7, UAlbany 67.0 → 67.3 possessions
−2.1
Manhattan offense vs UAlbany defense
+1.4
UAlbany offense vs Manhattan defense
+2.9
Projected total
150.4
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Manhattan offense vs UAlbany defense
+1.4
UAlbany offense vs Manhattan defense
−2.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Manhattan by 2.4
2.4
UAlbany side ◂▸ Manhattan side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Manhattan.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Manhattan is the faster team (68.1, #195 of 365) and UAlbany the slower (65.6, #311). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.4
model
Projected team totals
74.0 / 76.4
UAlbany / Manhattan
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.0#291
UAlbany
68.7#143
Manhattan

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageUAlbany
Where UAlbany scores: the offensive glass
UAlbany rebounds 32.7% of its own misses (#99); Manhattan lets opponents grab 37.0% of their own misses (#358). Expect about 35.2%, 4.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Manhattan's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UAlbany at about 37.1% of its shots from three, Manhattan about 38.3%.
AdvantageManhattan
Where Manhattan scores: ball control
Manhattan turns it over on 15.6% of possessions (#111); UAlbany forces turnovers on 15.8% of opponent possessions (#230). Expect about 15.5%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashUAlbany
Style match: paint scoring
UAlbany scores 49.5% of its points in the paint; Manhattan gives up 46.6% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.7% — both habits push the same way.
UAlbany has the ball
OffenseManhattan allowsvs D1 avg
51.3% #182
53.9% #297
+2.0 pt/100
18.5% #300
16.7% #175
-1.1 pt/100
32.7% #99
37.0% #358
+2.9 pt/100
24.9% #364
25.7% #11
-1.3 pt/100
65.9% #354
—
-0.6 pt/100
UAlbany net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.9 pts/100
Manhattan has the ball
OffenseUAlbany allowsvs D1 avg
47.9% #315
53.2% #275
-1.4 pt/100
15.6% #111
15.8% #230
+1.6 pt/100
28.6% #247
32.4% #277
-0.2 pt/100
34.0% #208
35.7% #202
-0.0 pt/100
79.6% #3
—
+0.6 pt/100
Manhattan net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
UAlbanyoffense vsManhattandefense
Share of shots by zone
UAlbany shoots
Manhattan allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#22858.5%#16658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)49.0%#1442.5%#23739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.9%#14642.7%#32638.0%
Three32.6%#24836.6%#33233.7%
Manhattanoffense vsUAlbanydefense
Share of shots by zone
Manhattan shoots
UAlbany allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim50.2%#36056.9%#11058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.8%#8541.3%#21939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.9%#3839.6%#22538.0%
Three32.0%#28036.0%#30233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
UAlbany
−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#336 of 365
Off reb %
32.7%
#99
Def reb %
67.6%
#277
Turnover %
18.5%
#300
Forced TO %
15.8%
#230
FT rate
24.9%
#364
FT allowed
35.7%
#202
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−2.6
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Manhattan
+0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#168 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#247
Def reb %
63.0%
#358
Turnover %
15.6%
#111
Forced TO %
16.7%
#175
FT rate
34.0%
#208
FT allowed
25.7%
#11
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−2.0
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers0.0
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+2.4

Manhattan has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.3 (#168 of 365) to UAlbany’s −4.3 (#336).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UAlbany2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Amir LindseyGSo5'11"31-3137.617.93.34.92.051.7%34.9%5.679.2%29.2%
00Okechukwu OkekeFSr6'10"32-2529.810.87.30.92.269.3%100.0%0.056.5%20.5%
5Isaac AbiddeFSr6'9"32-2925.39.44.40.61.356.1%36.2%4.065.0%22.9%
11Jaden KempsonGJr6'3"24-2031.010.24.43.02.043.1%29.5%3.362.2%24.9%
14Zacharie MatuluGSo6'4"21-1828.49.95.71.81.457.0%36.0%4.175.0%21.0%
4Miles RoseGSo6'4"29-615.73.31.61.41.041.0%33.3%0.636.7%19.6%
24Tarique FosterFJr6'8"22-820.35.92.20.90.948.8%33.3%4.164.7%20.3%
13Ma'Kye TaylorFSo6'7"31-413.73.42.20.50.847.5%9.1%0.745.0%19.0%
8Nas MuhammadGJr6'1"15-520.59.12.32.30.747.6%34.2%5.375.0%27.0%
22Abdoulaye FallGJr6'10"7-730.79.63.41.11.651.9%31.8%3.185.7%20.8%
7Ife West-IngramFJr6'7"9-114.36.92.80.80.772.6%25.0%0.450.0%21.2%
25Yaya KeitaCJr6'9"13-48.63.31.80.50.551.6%—0.078.6%21.7%
10Bautista GiraltCSo7'0"15-22.91.00.70.20.262.5%—0.050.0%20.4%
33Sully AdewaleFSo6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3Wilkin PaulinoGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Will RichardsonGJr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
UAlbanyManhattan
Efficiency
105.5
105.7
113.4
115.7
67.0
68.7
—
—
Shooting
51.3%
47.9%
52.8%
47.8%
32.6%
32.0%
65.9%
79.6%
24.9%
34.0%
Ball control & glass
18.5%
15.6%
15.8%
16.7%
32.7%
28.6%
32.4%
37.0%
10.4%
8.2%
9.4%
10.7%
Style
37.6%
37.1%
49.5%
41.4%
13.7%
11.1%
48.9%
49.6%
26.3%
28.1%
Roster
2.86
3.05
6'5.2"
6'4"
—
7.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
UAlbany
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Manhattan
Returning minutes: 7.4%Returning production: 5.3%
Lost
  • Jaden Winston 35.3 mpg, 15.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Devin Dinkins 33.6 mpg, 12.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Fraser Roxburgh 30.6 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Terrance Jones 28.2 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Anthony Isaac 23.8 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Marko Ljubicic 20.0 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Ben Tweedy from Colgate · 29.4 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
  • Josiah Sabino from Niagara · 19.6 mpg, 6.6 ppg last season
  • Ognjen Stankovic from Akron · 3.4 mpg, 1.2 ppg last season
  • Kevin Kearney from Saint Joseph's · 1.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
  • Liam McChesney from Creighton · 0.2 mpg, 0.1 ppg last season
  • Jameson Borodawka no D1 minutes last season

Returns 7% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.