CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceUnited Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX
Bethune
Efficiency #260
2025-26: 17-15 · 14-5 conf
@
Texas Tech
Efficiency #21
2025-26: 23-11 · 12-7 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · TBD
66.2
win 7%
Projected
83.6
win 93%
No line posted yet.
Model: TTU −17.4 · total 149.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Texas Tech 67.5, Bethune 69.5 → 68.6 possessions
+0.7
Texas Tech offense vs Bethune defense
+7.2
Bethune offense vs Texas Tech defense
−6.3
Projected total
149.8
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Texas Tech offense vs Bethune defense
+7.2
Bethune offense vs Texas Tech defense
+6.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Texas Tech by 17.4
17.4
Bethune side ◂▸ Texas Tech side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Texas Tech.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bethune is the faster team (70.9, #57 of 365) and Texas Tech the slower (67.9, #206). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.8
model
Projected team totals
66.2 / 83.6
Bethune / Texas Tech
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.5#85
Bethune
67.5#250
Texas Tech
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetClashBethune
Style match: 3-point volume
Bethune rarely shoots threes (29.7% of its shots); Texas Tech runs teams off the line (35.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 29.3% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageTexas Tech
Where Texas Tech scores: shooting
Texas Tech shoots an effective 56.1% (#21); Bethune allows 49.7% (#88). Expect about 53.3%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Texas Tech) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bethune at about 29.3% of its shots from three, Texas Tech about 41.9%.
GlassTexas Tech
Texas Tech owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.0% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Texas Tech's offense.
ClashTexas Tech
Style clash: 3-point volume
Texas Tech takes 47.6% of its shots from three; Bethune runs teams off the line (33.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashTexas Tech
Style clash: paint scoring
Texas Tech gets only 36.6% of its points in the paint; Bethune gives up 46.7% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
Bethune has the ball
OffenseTexas Tech allowsvs D1 avg
51.0% #195
49.7% #86
-1.4 pt/100
19.2% #328
14.8% #304
-0.2 pt/100
30.1% #194
30.6% #186
-0.1 pt/100
40.9% #48
31.4% #89
+0.1 pt/100
69.7% #279
—
-0.2 pt/100
Bethune net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.8 pts/100
Texas Tech has the ball
OffenseBethune allowsvs D1 avg
56.1% #21
49.7% #88
+2.9 pt/100
15.8% #123
15.8% #229
+1.4 pt/100
33.2% #82
31.7% #242
+1.6 pt/100
27.7% #347
38.6% #276
-0.2 pt/100
71.5% #222
—
-0.1 pt/100
Texas Tech net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.6 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersBethuneoffense vsTexas Techdefense
Share of shots by zone
Bethune shoots
48.3
5.2
16.9
29.6
Texas Tech allows
31.6
10.7
22.4
35.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.1%#94 | 63.4%#331 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 31.3%#337 | 38.1%#140 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 30.0%#353 | 39.3%#213 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.0%#230 | 32.1%#67 | 33.7% |
Texas Techoffense vsBethunedefense
Share of shots by zone
Texas Tech shoots
25.6
9.7
16.7
48.1
Bethune allows
47.2
5.5
14.5
32.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.5%#46 | 54.6%#52 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.5%#33 | 35.9%#89 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.0%#56 | 39.8%#233 | 38.0% |
| Three | 39.1%#4 | 32.9%#112 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersBethune
−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#273 of 365
Off reb %
30.1%
#194
Def reb %
68.3%
#242
Turnover %
19.2%
#328
Forced TO %
15.8%
#229
FT rate
40.9%
#48
FT allowed
38.6%
#276
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−1.7
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn+1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.9
Texas Tech
−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#202 of 365
Off reb %
33.2%
#82
Def reb %
69.4%
#186
Turnover %
15.8%
#123
Forced TO %
14.8%
#304
FT rate
27.7%
#347
FT allowed
31.4%
#89
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.9
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers−1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed+1.0
Texas Tech has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.6 (#202 of 365) to Bethune’s −2.0 (#273).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Bethune2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Bethune's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jakobi Heady | G | Sr | 6'6" | 31-31 | 35.7 | 18.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 58.0% | 41.5% | 3.0 | 80.4% | 25.2% | |
| 1 | Arterio Morris | G | Jr | 6'4" | 30-8 | 27.7 | 11.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 44.0% | 24.7% | 2.4 | 56.6% | 31.4% | |
| 5 | Quentin Heady | F | Jr | 6'6" | 32-28 | 25.6 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50.8% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 73.4% | 23.2% | |
| 23 | Daniel Rouzan | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 23.6 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52.2% | 20.0% | 0.8 | 68.4% | 29.2% | |
| 3 | Seneca Willoughby | G | Sr | 6'3" | 29-25 | 25.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 44.1% | 34.3% | 2.4 | 73.2% | 12.4% | |
| 4 | Ariel Bland | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-0 | 20.0 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 63.2% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.6% | 14.2% | |
| 25 | Tyler Andrews | G | Sr | 6'6" | 25-21 | 20.9 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 60.9% | 42.0% | 3.5 | 67.7% | 18.2% | |
| 11 | Jordan Johnson | G | Jr | 6'4" | 32-7 | 16.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 46.2% | 29.7% | 3.2 | 60.9% | 20.1% | |
| 2 | Rickey Mitchell Jr. | G | Jr | 6'4" | 14-4 | 16.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 39.4% | 30.0% | 2.9 | 66.7% | 20.4% | |
| 13 | Doctor Bradley | G | Sr | 6'8" | 8-4 | 22.1 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 55.2% | 28.6% | 0.9 | 47.7% | 33.0% | |
| 33 | David Onanina | C | Jr | 6'8" | 9-0 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 17.3% | |
| 12 | Dailon Minor | G | Fr | 6'1" | 9-0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 0.6 | 66.7% | 30.6% | |
| 22 | William Gonzalez | G | Fr | 6'6" | 4-0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 0.8 | — | 17.4% | |
| 30 | Simeon Womack | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 45.7% | |
| 24 | Trayvon Barbary | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 15 | Reggie Ward Jr. | F | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Texas Tech2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Jaylen Petty | G | Fr | 6'1" | 33-22 | 30.4 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 53.3% | 37.5% | 5.6 | 77.1% | 19.1% | |
| 3 | LeJuan Watts | F | Jr | 6'6" | 33-28 | 27.3 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 47.5% | 32.1% | 2.4 | 76.9% | 29.2% | |
| 15 | JT Toppin | F | Jr | 6'9" | 25-25 | 34.8 | 21.8 | 10.8 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 56.7% | 28.1% | 2.3 | 57.9% | 36.2% | |
| 1 | Tyeree Bryan | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-13 | 17.1 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 45.0% | 28.6% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 13.6% | |
| 9 | Luke Bamgboye | F | So | 6'11" | 21-12 | 16.5 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 50.8% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 71.1% | 16.7% | |
| 6 | Leon Horner | G | So | 6'4" | 23-0 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 36.4% | 0.5 | 86.7% | 19.0% | |
| 5 | Josiah Moseley | F | So | 6'8" | 14-0 | 13.9 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 71.6% | 50.0% | 0.4 | 36.4% | 20.3% | |
| 8 | Nolan Groves | G | Fr | 6'5" | 21-2 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 23.5% | 0.8 | 58.3% | 11.6% | |
| 13 | Marial Akuentok | F | Fr | 6'11" | 15-1 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 54.2% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 30.8% | 15.9% | |
| 10 | Jack Francis | G | Sr | 6'3" | 13-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 8.9% | |
| 21 | LaTrell Hoover | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Bethune2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Bethune's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jakobi Heady | G | Sr | 6'6" | 31-31 | 35.7 | 18.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 58.0% | 41.5% | 3.0 | 80.4% | 25.2% | |
| 1 | Arterio Morris | G | Jr | 6'4" | 30-8 | 27.7 | 11.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 44.0% | 24.7% | 2.4 | 56.6% | 31.4% | |
| 5 | Quentin Heady | F | Jr | 6'6" | 32-28 | 25.6 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50.8% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 73.4% | 23.2% | |
| 23 | Daniel Rouzan | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 23.6 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52.2% | 20.0% | 0.8 | 68.4% | 29.2% | |
| 3 | Seneca Willoughby | G | Sr | 6'3" | 29-25 | 25.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 44.1% | 34.3% | 2.4 | 73.2% | 12.4% | |
| 4 | Ariel Bland | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-0 | 20.0 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 63.2% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.6% | 14.2% | |
| 25 | Tyler Andrews | G | Sr | 6'6" | 25-21 | 20.9 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 60.9% | 42.0% | 3.5 | 67.7% | 18.2% | |
| 11 | Jordan Johnson | G | Jr | 6'4" | 32-7 | 16.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 46.2% | 29.7% | 3.2 | 60.9% | 20.1% | |
| 2 | Rickey Mitchell Jr. | G | Jr | 6'4" | 14-4 | 16.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 39.4% | 30.0% | 2.9 | 66.7% | 20.4% | |
| 13 | Doctor Bradley | G | Sr | 6'8" | 8-4 | 22.1 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 55.2% | 28.6% | 0.9 | 47.7% | 33.0% | |
| 33 | David Onanina | C | Jr | 6'8" | 9-0 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 17.3% | |
| 12 | Dailon Minor | G | Fr | 6'1" | 9-0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 0.6 | 66.7% | 30.6% | |
| 22 | William Gonzalez | G | Fr | 6'6" | 4-0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 0.8 | — | 17.4% | |
| 30 | Simeon Womack | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 45.7% | |
| 24 | Trayvon Barbary | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 15 | Reggie Ward Jr. | F | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Bethune
Against the spread
Season
15-15-1
Home
6-4
Road
9-8-1
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −2.0
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
17-14
Home
5-5
Road
12-6
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +2.7
Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Prairie View | N | L 67–71 | −5.5 | L−9.5 | 148.0 | U138 | 101.9 | 108.0 | 65.8 |
| Mar 5 | Florida A&M | A | L 77–81 | −2.5 | L−6.5 | 145.5 | O158 | 107.3 | 112.9 | 71.8 |
| Feb 28 | Southern | A | W 82–79 | +2.0 | W+5.0 | 153.0 | O161 | 110.6 | 106.6 | 74.1 |
| Feb 26 | Grambling | A | W 76–71 | +1.0 | W+6.0 | 144.0 | O147 | 99.8 | 93.3 | 76.1 |
| Feb 21 | Alabama A&M | H | W 85–76 | −7.0 | W+2.0 | 143.0 | O161 | 125.6 | 112.3 | 67.7 |
| Feb 19 | Alabama St | H | W 82–71 | −5.5 | W+5.5 | 148.0 | O153 | 114.8 | 99.4 | 71.4 |
| Feb 16 | Jackson St | A | L 86–91 | −5.0 | L−10.0 | 150.0 | O177 | 111.5 | 118.0 | 77.2 |
| Feb 14 | Alcorn St | A | L 55–57 | −8.0 | L−10.0 | 145.0 | U112 | 86.2 | 89.3 | 63.8 |
| Feb 9 | Texas Southern | H | W 79–69 OT | −8.5 | W+1.5 | 152.0 | U148 | 106.5 | 93.0 | 74.2 |
| Feb 7 | Prairie View | H | W 82–76 | −10.5 | L−4.5 | 157.5 | O158 | 107.5 | 99.7 | 76.3 |
Texas Tech
Against the spread
Season
17-16-1
Home
9-7
Road
5-4-1
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −0.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-19
Home
8-8
Road
3-7
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −2.0
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22 | #4Alabama | N | L 65–90 | +1.0 | L−24.0 | 164.5 | U155 | 93.8 | 129.9 | 69.3 |
| Mar 20 | #12Akron | N | W 91–71 | −6.5 | W+13.5 | 154.0 | O162 | 139.4 | 108.8 | 65.3 |
| Mar 12 | #7Iowa State | N | L 53–75 | +5.5 | L−16.5 | 143.5 | U128 | 81.9 | 115.9 | 64.7 |
| Mar 7 | BYU | A | L 76–82 | +3.0 | L−3.0 | 159.5 | U158 | 124.8 | 134.6 | 60.9 |
| Mar 3 | TCU | H | L 65–73 | −8.0 | L−16.0 | 148.5 | U138 | 101.6 | 114.1 | 64.0 |
| Feb 28 | #4Iowa State | A | W 82–73 | +9.5 | W+18.5 | 145.0 | O155 | 127.1 | 113.1 | 64.5 |
| Feb 24 | Cincinnati | H | W 80–68 | −6.5 | W+5.5 | 143.5 | O148 | 131.5 | 111.8 | 60.8 |
| Feb 21 | Kansas St | H | W 100–72 | −12.5 | W+15.5 | 158.5 | O172 | 144.9 | 104.3 | 69.0 |
| Feb 17 | Arizona St | A | L 67–72 | −7.5 | L−12.5 | 155.5 | U139 | 101.3 | 108.9 | 66.1 |
| Feb 14 | #1Arizona | A | W 78–75 OT | +9.5 | W+12.5 | 156.0 | U153 | 110.8 | 106.6 | 70.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeBethuneTexas Tech
Efficiency
104.6
117.7
109.7
103.2
69.5
67.5
—
—
Shooting
51.0%
56.1%
51.6%
53.9%
33.0%
39.1%
69.7%
71.5%
40.9%
27.7%
Ball control & glass
19.2%
15.8%
15.8%
14.8%
30.1%
33.2%
31.7%
30.6%
11.6%
8.9%
7.1%
7.7%
Style
29.7%
47.6%
49.1%
36.6%
19.9%
8.6%
50.4%
55.0%
32.9%
20.5%
Roster
3.59
2.40
6'5.5"
6'5.8"
—
63.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputBethune
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Bethune's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Texas Tech
Returning minutes: 63.4%Returning production: 60.4%
Lost
- Christian Anderson 37.3 mpg, 18.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Donovan Atwell 34.7 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jazz Henderson Jr. 1.5 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
- LaTrell Hoover no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 63% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.