CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFifth Third Arena, Cincinnati, OH

Green Bay

Efficiency #222

2025-26: 18-15 · 13-9 conf

Cincinnati

Efficiency #52

2025-26: 18-15 · 10-10 conf

Thu, Nov 5 · TBD

64.7

win 16%

Projected

76.1

win 84%

No line posted yet.

Model: CIN −11.4 · total 140.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Cincinnati 68.5, Green Bay 65.4 → 65.7 possessions

−5.7

Cincinnati offense vs Green Bay defense

+3.0

Green Bay offense vs Cincinnati defense

−4.6

Projected total

140.8

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Cincinnati offense vs Green Bay defense

+3.0

Green Bay offense vs Cincinnati defense

+4.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Cincinnati by 11.4

11.4

Green Bay side ◂▸ Cincinnati side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 140.9 against a projected 140.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Cincinnati.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cincinnati is the faster team (69.2, #136 of 365) and Green Bay the slower (64.7, #336). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

140.8

model

Projected team totals

64.7 / 76.1

Green Bay / Cincinnati

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.4#360

Green Bay

68.5#163

Cincinnati

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashCincinnati

Style match: ball movement

Cincinnati assists on 63.7% of its made baskets; Green Bay allows assists on 57.8% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 63.2% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageGreen Bay

Where Green Bay struggles: the offensive glass

Green Bay rebounds 25.1% of its own misses (#339); Cincinnati lets opponents grab 27.3% of their own misses (#45). Expect about 25.2%, 5.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageCincinnati

Where Cincinnati scores: ball control

Cincinnati turns it over on 17.0% of possessions (#203); Green Bay forces turnovers on 13.2% of opponent possessions (#351). Expect about 14.6%, 2.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Green Bay, Cincinnati's defense, Green Bay's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Green Bay at about 38.0% of its shots from three, Cincinnati about 45.4%.

ClashCincinnati

Style match: 3-point volume

Cincinnati takes 43.8% of its shots from three; Green Bay lets opponents take 43.3% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.4% — both habits push the same way.

ClashGreen Bay

Strength vs strength: 3-point shooting

Green Bay (#42 in 3-point shooting) against Cincinnati (#35 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.0%. Historically Green Bay's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.25 vs 0.16).

Green Bay has the ball

OffenseCincinnati allowsvs D1 avg

54.9% #41

47.3% #27

+0.1 pt/100

16.0% #138

18.2% #89

-0.6 pt/100

25.1% #339

27.3% #45

-3.2 pt/100

41.6% #36

30.0% #58

+0.0 pt/100

77.5% #24

—

+0.4 pt/100

Green Bay net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.1 pts/100

Cincinnati has the ball

OffenseGreen Bay allowsvs D1 avg

50.5% #213

53.6% #287

+1.1 pt/100

17.0% #203

13.2% #351

+2.7 pt/100

30.6% #174

29.6% #140

-0.1 pt/100

29.4% #323

37.4% #249

-0.2 pt/100

68.1% #325

—

-0.4 pt/100

Cincinnati net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Green Bayoffense vsCincinnatidefense

Share of shots by zone

Green Bay shoots

46.6

5.2

10.9

37.2

Cincinnati allows

32.5

6.5

21.1

39.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.6%#136	53.7%#35	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.1%#22	39.4%#170	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.0%#220	41.9%#298	38.0%
Three	36.4%#42	31.0%#35	33.7%

Cincinnatioffense vsGreen Baydefense

Share of shots by zone

Cincinnati shoots

28.3

7.4

21.1

43.2

Green Bay allows

36.5

7.5

12.9

43.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.9%#120	61.3%#279	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#171	38.7%#151	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.4%#173	37.6%#146	38.0%
Three	33.9%#175	36.3%#316	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Green Bay

−2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#274 of 365

Off reb %

25.1%

#339

Def reb %

70.4%

#140

Turnover %

16.0%

#138

Forced TO %

13.2%

#351

FT rate

41.6%

#36

FT allowed

37.4%

#249

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers−2.4

Foul shots drawn+1.7

Foul shots allowed−0.6

Cincinnati

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#100 of 365

Off reb %

30.6%

#174

Def reb %

72.7%

#45

Turnover %

17.0%

#203

Forced TO %

18.2%

#89

FT rate

29.4%

#323

FT allowed

30.0%

#58

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding+1.1

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers+1.0

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Cincinnati has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#100 of 365) to Green Bay’s −2.1 (#274).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Green Bay2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Green Bay's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Preston Ruedinger	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	35.3	11.6	3.8	5.5	1.5	54.7%	41.1%	4.9	90.8%	19.6%
10	C.J. O'Hara	G	So	6'4"	33-33	32.6	14.1	4.4	1.2	1.5	58.2%	28.0%	0.8	79.4%	23.6%
13	Marcus Hall	F	Jr	6'6"	30-30	34.6	13.9	5.2	2.5	1.6	58.6%	40.6%	5.2	76.4%	22.7%
7	Justin Allen	G	Sr	6'4"	32-22	26.4	13.6	3.7	1.7	1.2	51.5%	25.3%	2.8	82.5%	31.0%
23	Caden Wilkins	F	So	6'6"	33-22	21.5	6.9	2.9	0.6	0.7	56.5%	40.3%	3.6	68.3%	18.9%
22	LeBron Thomas	G	Jr	6'3"	32-6	12.0	4.0	1.9	0.9	1.0	48.7%	11.1%	0.3	68.4%	23.0%
0	Ramel Bethea	F	So	6'9"	30-4	12.7	3.6	2.6	0.3	0.6	74.6%	0.0%	0.0	66.7%	14.4%
4	Mac Wrecke	G	So	6'5"	23-5	11.6	3.3	1.4	0.3	0.4	55.7%	36.0%	1.1	69.6%	16.3%
20	Maruan Cicic	C	Fr	7'0"	21-9	11.5	2.8	1.8	0.1	0.6	59.1%	0.0%	0.0	63.6%	15.6%
3	Keegan Van Kauwenberg	G	Fr	6'3"	18-0	9.6	2.1	0.8	0.6	0.4	54.4%	34.6%	1.4	—	15.1%
15	Rob Stroud	F	Sr	6'5"	12-1	5.5	3.4	1.2	0.1	0.3	43.9%	16.7%	0.5	75.0%	40.1%
1	Josh Hines	G	Jr	6'2"	5-0	11.0	3.8	1.2	1.2	0.0	63.3%	33.3%	1.8	0.0%	16.3%
12	Dontrell Hewlett	G	Sr	6'4"	4-0	11.5	3.8	1.5	1.5	0.8	28.9%	14.3%	1.8	50.0%	33.5%
21	Brady Fitzgerald	G	Fr	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	50.0%	6.8%
11	Trey Schachter	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Cincinnati2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
52	Moustapha Thiam	C	So	7'2"	31-31	27.2	12.8	7.1	0.5	1.4	54.9%	28.8%	1.7	63.3%	26.9%
2	Jizzle James	G	Jr	6'3"	23-21	30.0	10.9	2.2	2.1	1.7	53.7%	44.2%	4.1	77.3%	23.1%
11	Kerr Kriisa	G	Sr	6'3"	19-12	20.9	5.8	1.3	3.0	1.3	48.1%	32.0%	5.1	75.0%	18.8%
7	Keyshuan Tillery	G	Fr	6'0"	31-0	12.4	3.8	1.2	1.8	1.2	44.4%	33.3%	1.5	70.0%	24.1%
24	Tyler McKinley	F	Fr	6'9"	25-3	12.1	1.8	2.2	0.6	0.4	51.2%	0.0%	0.1	22.2%	10.7%
65	Halvine Dzellat	C	So	6'10"	26-0	8.3	2.1	2.0	0.1	0.4	55.3%	0.0%	0.0	72.2%	15.5%
17	Jordi Rodriguez	G	Fr	6'6"	15-0	8.1	2.3	1.1	0.5	0.3	40.0%	27.6%	1.9	60.0%	20.3%
13	Grant Darbyshire	G	Sr	6'2"	7-0	1.9	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0%	—	0.0	—	21.4%
0	Bryson Buckingham	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Jalen Haynes	F	Sr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Lucas Atauri	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Green Bay2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Green Bay's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Preston Ruedinger	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	35.3	11.6	3.8	5.5	1.5	54.7%	41.1%	4.9	90.8%	19.6%
10	C.J. O'Hara	G	So	6'4"	33-33	32.6	14.1	4.4	1.2	1.5	58.2%	28.0%	0.8	79.4%	23.6%
13	Marcus Hall	F	Jr	6'6"	30-30	34.6	13.9	5.2	2.5	1.6	58.6%	40.6%	5.2	76.4%	22.7%
7	Justin Allen	G	Sr	6'4"	32-22	26.4	13.6	3.7	1.7	1.2	51.5%	25.3%	2.8	82.5%	31.0%
23	Caden Wilkins	F	So	6'6"	33-22	21.5	6.9	2.9	0.6	0.7	56.5%	40.3%	3.6	68.3%	18.9%
22	LeBron Thomas	G	Jr	6'3"	32-6	12.0	4.0	1.9	0.9	1.0	48.7%	11.1%	0.3	68.4%	23.0%
0	Ramel Bethea	F	So	6'9"	30-4	12.7	3.6	2.6	0.3	0.6	74.6%	0.0%	0.0	66.7%	14.4%
4	Mac Wrecke	G	So	6'5"	23-5	11.6	3.3	1.4	0.3	0.4	55.7%	36.0%	1.1	69.6%	16.3%
20	Maruan Cicic	C	Fr	7'0"	21-9	11.5	2.8	1.8	0.1	0.6	59.1%	0.0%	0.0	63.6%	15.6%
3	Keegan Van Kauwenberg	G	Fr	6'3"	18-0	9.6	2.1	0.8	0.6	0.4	54.4%	34.6%	1.4	—	15.1%
15	Rob Stroud	F	Sr	6'5"	12-1	5.5	3.4	1.2	0.1	0.3	43.9%	16.7%	0.5	75.0%	40.1%
1	Josh Hines	G	Jr	6'2"	5-0	11.0	3.8	1.2	1.2	0.0	63.3%	33.3%	1.8	0.0%	16.3%
12	Dontrell Hewlett	G	Sr	6'4"	4-0	11.5	3.8	1.5	1.5	0.8	28.9%	14.3%	1.8	50.0%	33.5%
21	Brady Fitzgerald	G	Fr	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	50.0%	6.8%
11	Trey Schachter	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Green Bay

Against the spread

Season

19-12

Home

8-4

Road

8-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +4.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-15

Home

6-6

Road

7-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.7

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	N	L 76–96	+4.0	L−16.0	147.5	O172	115.2	145.5	66.0
Mar 3	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	W 64–56	−4.5	W+3.5	145.0	U120	110.6	96.7	57.9
Feb 28	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	H	W 85–63	−1.5	W+20.5	142.0	O148	130.0	96.4	65.4
Feb 22	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	A	L 70–74	+1.0	L−3.0	147.5	U144	101.4	107.2	69.0
Feb 20	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	W 73–68	+6.5	W+11.5	153.5	U141	115.7	107.8	63.1
Feb 15	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	A	L 72–75	+2.5	L−0.5	145.5	O147	117.0	121.8	61.6
Feb 12	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	W 76–59	−1.5	W+15.5	144.5	U135	129.0	100.1	58.9
Feb 7	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	H	W 76–63	−4.0	W+9.0	148.0	U139	114.3	94.7	66.5
Feb 4	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	A	W 87–84 OT	+8.0	W+11.0	150.5	O171	115.3	111.3	75.5
Feb 1	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	L 75–83	+4.0	L−4.0	144.0	O158	118.4	131.1	63.3

Cincinnati

Against the spread

Season

14-19

Home

10-8

Road

3-7

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +7.0

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

12-21

Home

6-12

Road

5-5

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +2.9

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	UCFAdjEM #70	N	L 65–66 OT	−3.5	L−4.5	149.0	U131	85.0	86.3	76.5
Mar 10	UtahAdjEM #177	N	W 73–66	−12.0	L−5.0	137.5	O139	111.3	100.6	65.6
Mar 7	TCUAdjEM #51	A	L 63–73	+2.5	L−7.5	139.5	U136	99.3	115.1	63.4
Mar 3	BYUAdjEM #26	H	W 90–68	−1.5	W+20.5	152.5	O158	125.5	94.8	71.7
Feb 28	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	H	W 91–68	−9.5	W+13.5	152.5	O159	126.7	94.7	71.8
Feb 24	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	A	L 68–80	+6.5	L−5.5	143.5	O148	111.8	131.5	60.8
Feb 21	#8KansasAdjEM #25	A	W 84–68	+9.0	W+25.0	139.0	O152	124.2	100.5	67.7
Feb 15	UtahAdjEM #177	H	W 69–65	−12.5	L−8.5	139.0	U134	108.2	101.9	63.8
Feb 11	Kansas StAdjEM #128	A	W 91–62	−2.5	W+26.5	147.0	O153	129.2	88.0	70.4
Feb 8	UCFAdjEM #70	H	W 92–72	−4.5	W+15.5	146.0	O164	131.3	102.8	70.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Green BayCincinnati

Efficiency

110.7

108.5

113.0

99.2

65.4

68.5

—

Shooting

54.9%

50.5%

55.0%

50.2%

36.4%

33.9%

77.5%

68.1%

41.6%

29.4%

Ball control & glass

16.0%

17.0%

13.2%

18.2%

25.1%

30.6%

29.6%

27.3%

9.4%

8.3%

9.3%

6.8%

Style

37.3%

43.8%

44.9%

36.8%

10.7%

15.3%

54.5%

63.7%

27.2%

29.1%

Roster

2.82

2.24

6'4.7"

6'7"

—

44.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Green Bay

Returning minutes: 97.1%Returning production: 98.1%

ESPN hasn't posted Green Bay's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 97% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Cincinnati

Returning minutes: 44.8%Returning production: 40.2%

Lost

Day Day Thomas 30.4 mpg, 11.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Baba Miller 29.9 mpg, 12.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jalen Celestine 23.1 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Sencire Harris 15.9 mpg, 5.4 ppg · transferred to E Michigan
Shon Abaev 11.6 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Jalen Haynes no D1 minutes last season
Bryson Buckingham no D1 minutes last season
Lucas Atauri no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 45% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.