CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLeo D. Mahoney Arena, Fairfield, CTAmerica East-Metro Challenge
Vermont
Efficiency #199
2025-26: 22-12 · 14-5 conf
@
Fairfield
Efficiency #230
2025-26: 21-13 · 13-10 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · 7:00 PM ET
71.1
win 41%
Projected
73.7
win 59%
No line posted yet.
Model: FAIR −2.6 · total 144.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Fairfield 68.1, Vermont 66.5 → 66.3 possessions
−4.3
Fairfield offense vs Vermont defense
−0.1
Vermont offense vs Fairfield defense
+1.1
Projected total
144.8
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Fairfield offense vs Vermont defense
−0.1
Vermont offense vs Fairfield defense
−1.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Fairfield by 2.6
2.6
Vermont side ◂▸ Fairfield side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 144.9 against a projected 144.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Fairfield.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Fairfield is the faster team (67.1, #239 of 365) and Vermont the slower (64.4, #346). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
144.8
model
Projected team totals
71.1 / 73.7
Vermont / Fairfield
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.5#317
Vermont
68.1#203
Fairfield

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
Fairfield averages 67.1 possessions per 40, Vermont 64.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageFairfield
Where Fairfield struggles: shooting
Fairfield shoots an effective 48.8% (#294); Vermont allows 50.4% (#121). Expect about 49.4%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversFairfield
Fairfield protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.7% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for Fairfield's offense.
AdvantageVermont
Where Vermont struggles: the offensive glass
Vermont rebounds 26.2% of its own misses (#318); Fairfield lets opponents grab 29.1% of their own misses (#116). Expect about 26.9%, 3.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversVermont
Vermont protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.4% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for Vermont's offense.
ClashVermont
Style clash: 3-point volume
Vermont takes 44.6% of its shots from three; Fairfield runs teams off the line (35.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Vermont has the ball
OffenseFairfield allowsvs D1 avg
53.1% #95
51.0% #159
+1.3 pt/100
14.3% #35
16.8% #165
+1.7 pt/100
26.2% #318
29.1% #116
-2.2 pt/100
31.1% #279
30.4% #69
-0.6 pt/100
71.9% #213
—
-0.0 pt/100
Vermont net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.2 pts/100
Fairfield has the ball
OffenseVermont allowsvs D1 avg
48.8% #294
50.4% #121
-2.7 pt/100
15.3% #92
14.8% #305
+2.6 pt/100
35.8% #29
23.0% #2
+0.1 pt/100
27.7% #346
36.4% #226
-0.3 pt/100
70.5% #255
—
-0.2 pt/100
Fairfield net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Vermontoffense vsFairfielddefense
Share of shots by zone
Vermont shoots
Fairfield allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.5%#6155.7%#7858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)48.0%#2351.7%#35839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.3%#10434.0%#4938.0%
Three33.3%#20834.3%#20033.7%
Fairfieldoffense vsVermontdefense
Share of shots by zone
Fairfield shoots
Vermont allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim52.7%#34357.1%#11858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.7%#2941.9%#23039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.6%#16535.1%#8038.0%
Three33.2%#21635.3%#26733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Vermont
+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#174 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#318
Def reb %
77.0%
#2
Turnover %
14.3%
#35
Forced TO %
14.8%
#305
FT rate
31.1%
#279
FT allowed
36.4%
#226
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding+2.5
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers−1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed−0.3
Fairfield
+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#71 of 365
Off reb %
35.8%
#29
Def reb %
70.9%
#116
Turnover %
15.3%
#92
Forced TO %
16.8%
#165
FT rate
27.7%
#346
FT allowed
30.4%
#69
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed+1.2

Fairfield has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.6 (#71 of 365) to Vermont’s +0.2 (#174).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Vermont2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3TJ HurleyGSr6'5"34-3430.915.03.51.40.958.1%38.5%6.087.3%25.8%
20TJ LongGSr6'4"29-1729.612.14.81.11.148.2%31.4%6.579.7%26.7%
19Gus YaldenFSo6'9"31-3025.516.15.82.11.756.1%34.7%3.867.3%37.9%
34Noah BarnettFSo6'9"31-2522.35.83.60.50.466.8%50.0%0.164.1%13.3%
24Ben JohnsonGSr6'3"34-1718.25.42.11.10.359.7%42.2%3.272.2%16.2%
21Lucas MariGFr6'6"30-820.04.94.01.71.246.5%26.3%2.570.0%18.8%
2Ben MichaelsFSo6'8"31-1113.12.02.20.40.538.3%9.1%0.762.5%13.2%
1Momo NkugwaGFr6'3"29-013.13.02.30.70.454.9%25.0%1.147.4%15.0%
4Jackson SkipperFSr6'7"29-18.51.81.10.30.543.9%27.3%1.176.9%17.6%
0David SimonFSo6'11"18-010.63.42.20.30.670.7%57.1%0.436.4%18.6%
32Trey WoodyardFSr6'6"4-08.01.50.30.30.042.9%40.0%1.3—13.6%
12Ben WessonGFr6'4"7-02.31.90.30.10.185.7%66.7%0.450.0%32.4%
25Sincere ClemonsGFr6'2"6-02.20.20.20.00.20.0%0.0%0.350.0%26.3%
15Drew BessetteFFr6'8"5-02.40.41.40.20.025.0%0.0%0.6—19.0%
13Chris KuzemkaGSr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
VermontFairfield
Efficiency
108.2
107.4
109.4
110.4
66.5
68.1
—
—
Shooting
53.1%
48.8%
55.7%
48.2%
33.3%
33.2%
71.9%
70.5%
31.1%
27.7%
Ball control & glass
14.3%
15.3%
14.8%
16.8%
26.2%
35.8%
23.0%
29.1%
8.3%
8.7%
8.3%
10.5%
Style
44.6%
35.4%
41.8%
44.5%
5.5%
12.8%
47.9%
45.2%
34.4%
31.1%
Roster
2.78
2.44
6'6.1"
6'5.1"
85.8%
50.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Vermont
Returning minutes: 85.8%Returning production: 85.6%
Lost
  • Sean Blake 28.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
  • Chris Kuzemka no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Fairfield
Returning minutes: 50.2%Returning production: 45.6%
Lost
  • Braden Sparks 33.3 mpg, 17.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Brandon Benjamin 29.5 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to Boston College
  • Deuce Turner 20.0 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Ryan Zan 7.0 mpg, 0.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Cam Estevez 6.8 mpg, 2.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Michael Rogan 3.2 mpg, 0.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Qadir Martin from Mercyhurst · 31.4 mpg, 11.6 ppg last season
  • Marko Radunovic from Boston College · 5.4 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
  • Cole Edelen no D1 minutes last season
  • Jaden Brown no D1 minutes last season
  • Jah Hatchett no D1 minutes last season
  • Noah Best no D1 minutes last season

Returns 50% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.