CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceWintrust Arena, Chicago, IL

South Florida

Efficiency #36

2025-26: 25-9 · 17-3 conf

DePaul

Efficiency #113

2025-26: 16-16 · 8-13 conf

Thu, Nov 5 · TBD

75.2

win 57%

Projected

73.2

win 43%

No line posted yet.

Model: USF −2.0 · total 148.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: DePaul 67.7, South Florida 71.0 → 70.4 possessions

+4.5

DePaul offense vs South Florida defense

−5.2

South Florida offense vs DePaul defense

+0.9

Projected total

148.5

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

DePaul offense vs South Florida defense

−5.2

South Florida offense vs DePaul defense

−0.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

South Florida by 2.0

2.0

South Florida side ◂▸ DePaul side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 148.4 against a projected 148.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help DePaul.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, South Florida is the faster team (73.0, #12 of 365) and DePaul the slower (67.7, #213). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.5

model

Projected team totals

75.2 / 73.2

South Florida / DePaul

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

71.0#15

South Florida

67.7#236

DePaul

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSouth Florida

Where South Florida scores: the offensive glass

South Florida rebounds 38.1% of its own misses (#7); DePaul lets opponents grab 31.1% of their own misses (#205). Expect about 36.1%, 5.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageDePaul

Where DePaul struggles: shooting

DePaul shoots an effective 49.8% (#243); South Florida allows 48.8% (#58). Expect about 49.2%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

DePaul averages 67.7 possessions per 40, South Florida 73.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

TurnoversDePaul

DePaul turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.9% is worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions against DePaul's offense.

DefenseSouth Florida

South Florida's ball-hawking

South Florida ranks #21 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.7% of DePaul's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

ClashSouth Florida

Style match: ball movement

South Florida assists on 58.4% of its made baskets; DePaul allows assists on 57.5% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 59.6% — both habits push the same way.

South Florida has the ball

OffenseDePaul allowsvs D1 avg

50.6% #209

49.3% #77

-2.0 pt/100

15.1% #74

18.6% #67

-0.3 pt/100

38.1% #7

31.1% #205

+3.5 pt/100

40.4% #55

37.8% #257

+0.5 pt/100

74.6% #101

—

+0.2 pt/100

South Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.9 pts/100

DePaul has the ball

OffenseSouth Florida allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #243

48.8% #58

-3.0 pt/100

17.8% #256

19.1% #42

-2.6 pt/100

30.0% #197

31.9% #252

+0.3 pt/100

35.3% #169

39.1% #287

+0.3 pt/100

69.2% #295

—

-0.3 pt/100

DePaul net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

South Floridaoffense vsDePauldefense

Share of shots by zone

South Florida shoots

46.7

5.1

4.1

44.1

DePaul allows

39.4

6.5

21.2

33.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.0%#299	53.6%#34	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.8%#227	35.3%#65	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	25.0%#365	36.2%#117	38.0%
Three	32.5%#255	35.4%#274	33.7%

DePauloffense vsSouth Floridadefense

Share of shots by zone

DePaul shoots

38.2

5.5

17.5

38.8

South Florida allows

35.9

8.0

16.8

39.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.4%#287	54.7%#57	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.9%#66	34.5%#52	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.4%#255	34.8%#69	38.0%
Three	32.5%#253	34.5%#218	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

South Florida

+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#18 of 365

Off reb %

38.1%

Def reb %

68.1%

#252

Turnover %

15.1%

#74

Forced TO %

19.1%

#42

FT rate

40.4%

#55

FT allowed

39.1%

#287

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.5

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+1.7

Foul shots drawn+1.4

Foul shots allowed−1.0

DePaul

−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#188 of 365

Off reb %

30.0%

#197

Def reb %

68.9%

#205

Turnover %

17.8%

#256

Forced TO %

18.6%

#67

FT rate

35.3%

#169

FT allowed

37.8%

#257

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn+0.1

Foul shots allowed−0.7

South Florida has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#18 of 365) to DePaul’s −0.2 (#188).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

South Florida2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Wes Enis	G	Jr	6'2"	32-29	34.0	16.4	3.6	2.4	1.6	51.1%	35.2%	9.5	81.4%	27.1%
5	Joseph Pinion	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	30.2	14.6	3.9	2.4	1.5	52.2%	37.8%	8.6	78.7%	27.2%
8	Josh Omojafo	G	Sr	6'5"	34-32	27.2	11.3	5.3	1.7	1.2	50.2%	29.7%	2.2	78.2%	21.5%
11	CJ Brown	G	So	6'2"	34-34	26.6	10.9	3.9	4.7	2.0	40.7%	24.2%	1.9	72.7%	27.4%
3	Isaiah Jones	F	Sr	6'7"	34-1	15.8	4.5	3.0	0.4	0.3	53.0%	31.4%	2.5	82.9%	14.6%
6	Daimion Collins	F	Sr	6'9"	33-1	14.1	4.0	3.2	0.4	0.5	59.9%	15.8%	0.6	60.0%	15.0%
21	Adriel Nyorha	G	Fr	6'5"	26-2	11.0	3.7	1.7	2.0	1.2	44.8%	32.3%	1.2	67.9%	25.3%
9	Gavin Hightower	G	Fr	6'1"	26-0	10.2	4.1	1.7	1.7	1.2	53.5%	20.0%	0.2	67.4%	25.5%
4	Devin Haid	G	Sr	6'5"	23-0	10.0	3.3	2.0	0.8	0.3	47.7%	31.4%	1.5	93.3%	18.5%
7	Caleb Sanders	F	Fr	6'6"	10-2	8.2	3.1	1.6	0.8	0.4	52.8%	33.3%	0.9	66.7%	19.4%
0	Xavier Brown	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	12.0	2.7	0.7	1.7	0.3	33.3%	33.3%	2.0	50.0%	16.3%
15	Onyx Nnani	F	Fr	6'9"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	De'Ante Green	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

DePaul2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted DePaul's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Layden Blocker	G	Jr	6'2"	32-29	29.1	11.1	2.5	3.5	2.2	41.7%	31.8%	3.4	82.8%	27.3%
11	CJ Gunn	G	Sr	6'7"	32-23	27.7	13.1	3.7	1.9	1.9	47.3%	32.7%	5.3	72.5%	32.1%
5	RJ Smith	G	Jr	6'3"	32-23	27.7	6.6	2.4	2.4	1.1	46.1%	30.8%	3.8	75.0%	16.7%
35	NJ Benson	F	Sr	6'8"	32-31	25.9	11.7	7.6	1.2	1.3	63.6%	0.0%	0.1	50.5%	24.6%
0	Brandon Maclin	G	Sr	6'3"	29-16	27.6	10.5	4.5	2.8	1.8	48.5%	30.6%	2.5	69.5%	25.2%
22	Kruz McClure	G	Fr	6'6"	28-4	18.6	5.0	1.4	1.5	1.4	41.6%	29.9%	2.8	74.1%	20.7%
1	Kaleb Banks	F	Sr	6'8"	31-11	16.2	5.6	2.5	0.4	0.6	54.0%	35.5%	2.0	74.1%	19.5%
21	Theo Pierre-Justin	F	So	6'10"	30-22	15.5	4.0	2.6	0.9	0.5	54.5%	39.7%	2.1	61.1%	15.7%
15	Fabian Flores	C	Fr	7'2"	28-1	10.5	2.9	2.9	0.3	0.3	68.1%	—	0.0	64.0%	13.8%
10	Ilija Milijasevic	G	Jr	6'2"	15-0	7.9	2.2	0.5	0.5	0.3	53.6%	35.7%	1.9	75.0%	16.4%
32	Jeremy Lorenz	F	Jr	6'8"	9-0	10.4	2.2	1.8	1.0	0.9	60.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	15.4%
14	Khaman Maker	C	So	7'1"	12-0	5.5	1.3	1.2	0.0	0.3	50.0%	—	0.0	25.0%	16.1%
3	Nate Kasher	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	1.8	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	18.7%
52	Amsal Delalic	G	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Isaiah Medina	F	Fr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Jonas Johnson	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

South Florida2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Wes Enis	G	Jr	6'2"	32-29	34.0	16.4	3.6	2.4	1.6	51.1%	35.2%	9.5	81.4%	27.1%
5	Joseph Pinion	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	30.2	14.6	3.9	2.4	1.5	52.2%	37.8%	8.6	78.7%	27.2%
8	Josh Omojafo	G	Sr	6'5"	34-32	27.2	11.3	5.3	1.7	1.2	50.2%	29.7%	2.2	78.2%	21.5%
11	CJ Brown	G	So	6'2"	34-34	26.6	10.9	3.9	4.7	2.0	40.7%	24.2%	1.9	72.7%	27.4%
3	Isaiah Jones	F	Sr	6'7"	34-1	15.8	4.5	3.0	0.4	0.3	53.0%	31.4%	2.5	82.9%	14.6%
6	Daimion Collins	F	Sr	6'9"	33-1	14.1	4.0	3.2	0.4	0.5	59.9%	15.8%	0.6	60.0%	15.0%
21	Adriel Nyorha	G	Fr	6'5"	26-2	11.0	3.7	1.7	2.0	1.2	44.8%	32.3%	1.2	67.9%	25.3%
9	Gavin Hightower	G	Fr	6'1"	26-0	10.2	4.1	1.7	1.7	1.2	53.5%	20.0%	0.2	67.4%	25.5%
4	Devin Haid	G	Sr	6'5"	23-0	10.0	3.3	2.0	0.8	0.3	47.7%	31.4%	1.5	93.3%	18.5%
7	Caleb Sanders	F	Fr	6'6"	10-2	8.2	3.1	1.6	0.8	0.4	52.8%	33.3%	0.9	66.7%	19.4%
0	Xavier Brown	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	12.0	2.7	0.7	1.7	0.3	33.3%	33.3%	2.0	50.0%	16.3%
15	Onyx Nnani	F	Fr	6'9"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	De'Ante Green	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

South Florida

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

9-5

Road

7-5

Last 10

7-2-1

avg cover +5.6

Covered 7 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-18

Home

5-9

Road

7-5

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −9.3

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#6LouisvilleAdjEM #14	N	L 79–83	+4.0	P0.0	160.0	O162	105.0	110.3	75.2
Mar 15	Wichita StAdjEM #60	N	W 70–55	−6.0	W+9.0	150.5	U125	102.6	80.6	68.2
Mar 14	CharlotteAdjEM #193	N	W 86–64	−15.5	W+6.5	153.5	U150	125.1	93.1	68.7
Mar 8	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 83–60	−17.5	W+5.5	155.5	U143	125.9	91.0	65.9
Mar 5	MemphisAdjEM #152	A	W 96–89	−7.5	L−0.5	161.5	O185	123.8	114.8	77.5
Mar 1	TulaneAdjEM #239	H	W 90–62	−15.0	W+13.0	154.5	U152	123.5	85.1	72.8
Feb 25	RiceAdjEM #255	A	W 75–56	−11.0	W+8.0	157.0	U131	107.8	80.5	69.6
Feb 19	MemphisAdjEM #152	H	W 87–66	−9.5	W+11.5	163.5	U153	124.2	94.2	70.1
Feb 15	FAUAdjEM #122	A	W 83–81 OT	−5.0	L−3.0	166.5	U164	108.3	105.7	76.6
Feb 11	Wichita StAdjEM #60	A	W 66–58	−2.0	W+6.0	160.0	U124	95.1	83.5	69.4

DePaul

Against the spread

Season

18-13-1

Home

9-9

Road

8-2-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −2.2

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-20-1

Home

7-10-1

Road

3-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −5.8

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	N	L 56–63	−5.0	L−12.0	130.0	U119	89.0	100.2	62.9
Mar 7	ButlerAdjEM #87	H	L 71–81	−4.0	L−14.0	142.5	O152	96.8	110.4	73.4
Mar 4	VillanovaAdjEM #40	H	L 57–76	+2.0	L−17.0	136.5	U133	81.1	108.2	70.3
Mar 1	MarquetteAdjEM #100	A	W 62–51	+4.5	W+15.5	139.5	U113	98.0	80.6	63.2
Feb 25	CreightonAdjEM #92	A	W 72–71	+4.5	W+5.5	142.5	O143	110.8	109.3	65.0
Feb 21	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	H	L 68–71	−3.0	L−6.0	152.5	U139	101.2	105.7	67.2
Feb 18	Seton HallAdjEM #56	A	W 69–57	+7.0	W+19.0	129.0	U126	106.6	88.0	64.7
Feb 11	CreightonAdjEM #92	H	W 72–71	+1.0	W+2.0	141.0	O143	116.4	114.8	61.9
Feb 7	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	A	L 72–90	+5.0	L−13.0	153.5	O162	100.6	125.8	71.5
Feb 3	#22St John'sAdjEM #16	H	L 56–68	+9.5	L−2.5	145.0	U124	85.3	103.6	65.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

South FloridaDePaul

Efficiency

114.7

106.3

103.3

103.5

71.0

67.7

—

Shooting

50.6%

49.8%

52.0%

50.5%

32.5%

74.6%

69.2%

40.4%

35.3%

Ball control & glass

15.1%

17.8%

19.1%

18.6%

38.1%

30.0%

31.9%

31.1%

8.6%

10.8%

13.1%

10.7%

Style

43.8%

39.0%

43.5%

42.9%

16.5%

13.1%

58.4%

60.9%

29.9%

35.0%

Roster

3.18

3.13

6'4.3"

6'5.9"

84.4%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

South Florida

Returning minutes: 84.4%Returning production: 76.6%

Lost

Izaiyah Nelson 27.3 mpg, 15.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tristan Beckford 4.4 mpg, 1.6 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green

Added

De'Ante Green no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

DePaul

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted DePaul's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.