CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, NY
C Connecticut
Efficiency #277
2025-26: 18-12 · 12-7 conf
@
Syracuse
Efficiency #85
2025-26: 15-17 · 6-13 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · TBD
67.6
win 17%
Projected
78.7
win 83%
No line posted yet.
Model: SYR −11.1 · total 146.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Syracuse 68.3, C Connecticut 66.7 → 66.7 possessions
−3.6
Syracuse offense vs C Connecticut defense
+4.4
C Connecticut offense vs Syracuse defense
−2.9
Projected total
146.2
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Syracuse offense vs C Connecticut defense
+4.4
C Connecticut offense vs Syracuse defense
+2.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Syracuse by 11.1
11.1
C Connecticut side ◂▸ Syracuse side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 146.1 against a projected 146.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Syracuse.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Syracuse is the faster team (67.8, #212 of 365) and C Connecticut the slower (65.2, #325). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.2
model
Projected team totals
67.6 / 78.7
C Connecticut / Syracuse
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.7#308
C Connecticut
68.3#185
Syracuse
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
Syracuse averages 67.8 possessions per 40, C Connecticut 65.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageSyracuse
Where Syracuse scores: ball control
Syracuse turns it over on 16.0% of possessions (#136); C Connecticut forces turnovers on 14.0% of opponent possessions (#336). Expect about 14.5%, 2.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.
ClashC Connecticut
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
C Connecticut (#13 in shot-blocking exposure) against Syracuse (#7 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 12.3%. Historically Syracuse's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
ClashC Connecticut
Style match: 3-point volume
C Connecticut rarely shoots threes (34.9% of its shots); Syracuse runs teams off the line (35.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.5% — both habits push the same way.
C Connecticut has the ball
OffenseSyracuse allowsvs D1 avg
51.6% #165
50.3% #116
-0.4 pt/100
16.2% #153
17.4% #124
-0.1 pt/100
27.5% #281
33.6% #310
-0.3 pt/100
31.2% #276
32.6% #117
-0.4 pt/100
76.7% #38
—
+0.4 pt/100
C Connecticut net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.9 pts/100
Syracuse has the ball
OffenseC Connecticut allowsvs D1 avg
52.6% #122
50.2% #113
+0.3 pt/100
16.0% #136
14.0% #336
+2.8 pt/100
29.2% #228
30.4% #179
-0.5 pt/100
35.1% #171
26.9% #22
-0.6 pt/100
64.8% #361
—
-0.7 pt/100
Syracuse net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersC Connecticutoffense vsSyracusedefense
Share of shots by zone
C Connecticut shoots
34.6
6.0
24.9
34.5
Syracuse allows
40.2
7.7
16.2
35.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.0%#163 | 60.1%#232 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 54.1%#2 | 38.1%#138 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.8%#231 | 31.0%#9 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.8%#69 | 34.1%#186 | 33.7% |
Syracuseoffense vsC Connecticutdefense
Share of shots by zone
Syracuse shoots
39.0
7.0
16.7
37.4
C Connecticut allows
41.3
7.1
12.7
38.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.4%#64 | 54.5%#50 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.9%#126 | 47.7%#338 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.8%#233 | 42.0%#302 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.9%#239 | 33.4%#146 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersC Connecticut
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#243 of 365
Off reb %
27.5%
#281
Def reb %
69.6%
#179
Turnover %
16.2%
#153
Forced TO %
14.0%
#336
FT rate
31.2%
#276
FT allowed
26.9%
#22
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers−1.9
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+2.1
Syracuse
+0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#165 of 365
Off reb %
29.2%
#228
Def reb %
66.4%
#310
Turnover %
16.0%
#136
Forced TO %
17.4%
#124
FT rate
35.1%
#171
FT allowed
32.6%
#117
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.5
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed+0.7
Syracuse has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.4 (#165 of 365) to C Connecticut’s −1.2 (#243).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
C Connecticut2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted C Connecticut's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Darin Smith Jr. | F | So | 6'7" | 30-30 | 32.7 | 20.7 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 51.9% | 37.6% | 5.0 | 89.8% | 35.9% | |
| 1 | Jay Rodgers | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-28 | 29.2 | 11.0 | 2.2 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 48.9% | 36.2% | 3.1 | 81.7% | 27.0% | |
| 34 | Max Frazier | F | Jr | 6'9" | 30-30 | 28.2 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 65.8% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.0% | 22.7% | |
| 24 | James Jones | G | So | 6'6" | 26-23 | 28.8 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 42.5% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 59.1% | 11.8% | |
| 6 | Melo Sanchez | G | Sr | 6'4" | 29-26 | 24.8 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 59.7% | 42.8% | 4.8 | 80.0% | 21.5% | |
| 0 | Elijah Parker | G | Fr | 6'3" | 29-2 | 14.6 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 45.5% | 26.9% | 0.9 | 42.1% | 14.1% | |
| 22 | Daniel James | F | So | 6'8" | 28-5 | 12.6 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 56.3% | 31.8% | 0.8 | 73.9% | 16.2% | |
| 3 | Roddy Jones | G | Fr | 6'1" | 23-0 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 56.3% | 38.8% | 3.5 | 100.0% | 22.7% | |
| 13 | Ashton Reynolds | G | Fr | 6'4" | 23-1 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.8% | 31.6% | 0.8 | 81.5% | 21.6% | |
| 2 | Nico Ashley | F | Sr | 6'7" | 18-1 | 9.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 58.0% | 25.0% | 0.7 | 69.2% | 19.6% | |
| 12 | Gabe Spinelli | G | Sr | 6'3" | 11-0 | 14.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 53.7% | 44.4% | 0.8 | 100.0% | 19.3% | |
| 10 | Ja'Kobe Williams | G | Sr | 6'3" | 7-4 | 18.1 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 28.6% | 20.0% | 1.4 | 70.0% | 17.9% | |
| 11 | Jayden Mott | F | So | 6'8" | 14-0 | 8.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 47.9% | 33.3% | 0.2 | 40.0% | 18.7% | |
| 15 | Adam Fox | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 14.0% | |
| 20 | Corsley Edwards Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Rashawn Tibby | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Syracuse2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gavin Dotyat Siena | G | Jr | 6'5" | 35-35 | 36.7 | 18.0 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 50.8% | 32.6% | 4.0 | 85.8% | 28.4% | |
| 25 | Aiden Tobiasonat Temple | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 35.4 | 15.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 55.1% | 33.8% | 4.3 | 80.0% | 24.3% | |
| 23 | Luke Wilsonat App State | C | Jr | 6'10" | 32-30 | 28.2 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 64.2% | — | 0.0 | 56.7% | 21.2% | |
| 11 | Francis Folefacat Siena | F | So | 6'7" | 35-26 | 28.1 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 52.6% | 37.5% | 0.5 | 74.0% | 26.2% | |
| 3 | Garwey Dualat McNeese | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-17 | 26.6 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 50.9% | 31.6% | 2.2 | 76.4% | 21.0% | |
| 7 | Kiyan Anthony | G | So | 6'5" | 29-2 | 18.7 | 8.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 44.6% | 25.4% | 2.4 | 62.8% | 28.7% | |
| 1 | Sadiq White Jr. | F | So | 6'8" | 31-11 | 15.2 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 57.1% | 36.8% | 0.6 | 51.3% | 24.4% | |
| 5 | Tasman Goodrickat Siena | F | Sr | 6'10" | 9-9 | 23.4 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 64.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 58.3% | 22.4% | |
| 24 | Noah Lobdell | G | Jr | 6'0" | 4-0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 23.7% | |
| 6 | Calvin Russell III | G | So | 6'5" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 126.8% | |
| 10 | Abdramane Siby | C | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Ethan Butler | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Iker Martinez | C | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Mark Morano | F | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Ryan Moesch | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Gavin Doty (from Siena), Garwey Dual (from McNeese), Francis Folefac (from Siena), Tasman Goodrick (from Siena), Aiden Tobiason (from Temple), Luke Wilson (from App State)
C Connecticut2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted C Connecticut's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Darin Smith Jr. | F | So | 6'7" | 30-30 | 32.7 | 20.7 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 51.9% | 37.6% | 5.0 | 89.8% | 35.9% | |
| 1 | Jay Rodgers | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-28 | 29.2 | 11.0 | 2.2 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 48.9% | 36.2% | 3.1 | 81.7% | 27.0% | |
| 34 | Max Frazier | F | Jr | 6'9" | 30-30 | 28.2 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 65.8% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.0% | 22.7% | |
| 24 | James Jones | G | So | 6'6" | 26-23 | 28.8 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 42.5% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 59.1% | 11.8% | |
| 6 | Melo Sanchez | G | Sr | 6'4" | 29-26 | 24.8 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 59.7% | 42.8% | 4.8 | 80.0% | 21.5% | |
| 0 | Elijah Parker | G | Fr | 6'3" | 29-2 | 14.6 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 45.5% | 26.9% | 0.9 | 42.1% | 14.1% | |
| 22 | Daniel James | F | So | 6'8" | 28-5 | 12.6 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 56.3% | 31.8% | 0.8 | 73.9% | 16.2% | |
| 3 | Roddy Jones | G | Fr | 6'1" | 23-0 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 56.3% | 38.8% | 3.5 | 100.0% | 22.7% | |
| 13 | Ashton Reynolds | G | Fr | 6'4" | 23-1 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.8% | 31.6% | 0.8 | 81.5% | 21.6% | |
| 2 | Nico Ashley | F | Sr | 6'7" | 18-1 | 9.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 58.0% | 25.0% | 0.7 | 69.2% | 19.6% | |
| 12 | Gabe Spinelli | G | Sr | 6'3" | 11-0 | 14.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 53.7% | 44.4% | 0.8 | 100.0% | 19.3% | |
| 10 | Ja'Kobe Williams | G | Sr | 6'3" | 7-4 | 18.1 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 28.6% | 20.0% | 1.4 | 70.0% | 17.9% | |
| 11 | Jayden Mott | F | So | 6'8" | 14-0 | 8.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 47.9% | 33.3% | 0.2 | 40.0% | 18.7% | |
| 15 | Adam Fox | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 14.0% | |
| 20 | Corsley Edwards Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Rashawn Tibby | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26C Connecticut
Against the spread
Season
14-14
Home
3-9
Road
11-5
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −4.0
Missed the spread 5 straightCovered 4 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
16-12
Home
9-3
Road
7-9
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +1.2
Under 2 straightOver in 5 of 9 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Wagner | H | L 60–70 | −3.5 | L−13.5 | 138.5 | U130 | 97.7 | 114.0 | 61.4 |
| Feb 28 | Saint Francis Red Wolves | H | W 69–64 | −8.0 | L−3.0 | 153.0 | U133 | 106.3 | 98.6 | 64.9 |
| Feb 26 | Mercyhurst | H | W 80–78 | −4.0 | L−2.0 | 141.0 | O158 | 117.7 | 114.7 | 68.0 |
| Feb 21 | Chicago St | A | L 51–70 | −3.0 | L−22.0 | 138.5 | U121 | 82.4 | 113.1 | 61.9 |
| Feb 19 | Le Moyne | H | W 78–77 | −3.5 | L−2.5 | 146.5 | O155 | 110.2 | 108.8 | 70.8 |
| Feb 14 | FDU | A | W 63–57 | −1.0 | W+5.0 | 134.0 | U120 | 111.5 | 100.9 | 56.5 |
| Feb 12 | New Haven | A | W 81–76 | −3.0 | W+2.0 | 129.0 | O157 | 117.5 | 110.2 | 69.0 |
| Feb 7 | Wagner | H | W 84–67 | −5.0 | W+12.0 | 136.5 | O151 | 127.9 | 102.0 | 65.7 |
| Feb 5 | Chicago St | H | W 78–67 | −9.0 | W+2.0 | 137.0 | O145 | 125.1 | 107.5 | 62.3 |
| Jan 31 | Long Island | H | L 59–80 | +2.5 | L−18.5 | 143.0 | U139 | 89.1 | 120.8 | 66.2 |
Syracuse
Against the spread
Season
14-17-1
Home
8-10
Road
4-4-1
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover −4.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+, 1 push
Over / under
Season
16-15-1
Home
7-11
Road
7-2
Last 10
4-5-1
avg vs total +5.0
Over in 3 of 7 as an underdog, 1 pushOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | SMU | N | L 69–86 | +4.0 | L−13.0 | 155.0 | P155 | 104.4 | 130.2 | 66.1 |
| Mar 7 | Pitt | H | L 69–71 OT | −6.5 | L−8.5 | 142.0 | U140 | 101.0 | 104.0 | 68.3 |
| Mar 3 | Louisville | A | L 62–77 | +15.0 | P0.0 | 160.0 | U139 | 91.6 | 113.8 | 67.7 |
| Feb 28 | Wake Forest | A | L 83–88 | +4.0 | L−1.0 | 152.0 | O171 | 127.5 | 135.2 | 65.1 |
| Feb 21 | #16North Carolina | H | L 64–77 | −1.5 | L−14.5 | 154.5 | U141 | 94.2 | 113.3 | 67.9 |
| Feb 16 | #3Duke | A | L 64–101 | +20.5 | L−16.5 | 145.0 | O165 | 99.8 | 157.4 | 64.2 |
| Feb 14 | SMU | H | W 79–78 | +2.0 | W+3.0 | 158.0 | U157 | 121.0 | 119.4 | 65.3 |
| Feb 11 | California | H | W 107–100 2OT | −6.5 | W+0.5 | 149.0 | O207 | 118.3 | 110.6 | 90.4 |
| Feb 7 | #18Virginia | A | L 59–72 | +14.0 | W+1.0 | 147.0 | U131 | 95.2 | 116.2 | 62.0 |
| Feb 2 | #14North Carolina | A | L 77–87 | +11.5 | W+1.5 | 158.0 | O164 | 106.5 | 120.3 | 72.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeC ConnecticutSyracuse
Efficiency
106.6
111.0
112.6
106.1
66.7
68.3
—
—
Shooting
51.6%
52.6%
50.5%
54.5%
35.8%
32.9%
76.7%
64.8%
31.2%
35.1%
Ball control & glass
16.2%
16.0%
14.0%
17.4%
27.5%
29.2%
30.4%
33.6%
9.6%
9.9%
6.5%
7.9%
Style
34.9%
37.2%
42.0%
47.6%
9.6%
15.5%
50.9%
47.1%
29.0%
27.2%
Roster
2.67
2.86
6'5.5"
6'6.6"
—
15.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputC Connecticut
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted C Connecticut's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Syracuse
Returning minutes: 15.6%Returning production: 13.6%
Lost
- Naithan George 32.2 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nate Kingz 31.3 mpg, 12.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- William Kyle III 28.1 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- J.J. Starling 27.2 mpg, 10.3 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
- Donnie Freeman 22.5 mpg, 11.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tyler Betsey 17.5 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Gavin Doty from Siena · 36.7 mpg, 18.0 ppg last season
- Aiden Tobiason from Temple · 35.4 mpg, 15.3 ppg last season
- Luke Wilson from App State · 28.2 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
- Francis Folefac from Siena · 28.1 mpg, 11.3 ppg last season
- Garwey Dual from McNeese · 26.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg last season
- Tasman Goodrick from Siena · 6.0 mpg, 2.5 ppg last season
Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.