CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceThe Super Pit, Denton, TX
McNeese
Efficiency #49
2025-26: 28-6 · 21-3 conf
@
North Texas
Efficiency #151
2025-26: 19-14 · 10-10 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · TBD
69.1
win 56%
Projected
67.3
win 44%
No line posted yet.
Model: MCN −1.8 · total 136.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: North Texas 66.8, McNeese 67.4 → 65.9 possessions
−5.3
North Texas offense vs McNeese defense
−6.1
McNeese offense vs North Texas defense
−0.5
Projected total
136.4
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
North Texas offense vs McNeese defense
−6.1
McNeese offense vs North Texas defense
+0.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
McNeese by 1.8
1.8
McNeese side ◂▸ North Texas side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 136.3 against a projected 136.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help North Texas.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, McNeese is the faster team (66.4, #282 of 365) and North Texas the slower (66.0, #294). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
136.4
model
Projected team totals
69.1 / 67.3
McNeese / North Texas
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.4#255
McNeese
66.8#304
North Texas
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageNorth Texas
Where North Texas struggles: ball control
North Texas turns it over on 16.7% of possessions (#180); McNeese forces turnovers on 24.5% of opponent possessions (#1). Expect about 21.7%, 4.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.0 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseMcNeese
McNeese's shot-blocking
McNeese ranks #4 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 14.6% of North Texas's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
DefenseMcNeese
McNeese's ball-hawking
McNeese ranks #1 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.1% of North Texas's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Pace
Half-court grind
North Texas averages 66.0 possessions per 40, McNeese 66.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
GlassNorth Texas
North Texas owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.8% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for North Texas's offense.
AdvantageMcNeese
Where McNeese scores: the offensive glass
McNeese rebounds 35.1% of its own misses (#46); North Texas lets opponents grab 32.4% of their own misses (#278). Expect about 34.7%, 4.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.
McNeese has the ball
OffenseNorth Texas allowsvs D1 avg
50.7% #202
48.4% #47
-2.6 pt/100
14.2% #28
21.3% #6
-1.7 pt/100
35.1% #46
32.4% #278
+2.6 pt/100
37.4% #114
45.1% #350
+0.9 pt/100
74.4% #109
—
+0.2 pt/100
McNeese net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.6 pts/100
North Texas has the ball
OffenseMcNeese allowsvs D1 avg
46.0% #349
49.3% #76
-5.8 pt/100
16.7% #180
24.5% #1
-6.0 pt/100
33.5% #76
34.9% #338
+2.6 pt/100
39.6% #63
42.1% #323
+0.8 pt/100
70.0% #273
—
-0.2 pt/100
North Texas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.6 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMcNeeseoffense vsNorth Texasdefense
Share of shots by zone
McNeese shoots
44.9
3.8
15.8
35.4
North Texas allows
38.7
7.3
15.7
38.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.3%#219 | 60.2%#240 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.1%#103 | 27.8%#7 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.3%#103 | 34.4%#60 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.7%#290 | 30.9%#32 | 33.7% |
North Texasoffense vsMcNeesedefense
Share of shots by zone
North Texas shoots
42.9
10.7
14.0
32.4
McNeese allows
35.6
3.8
14.6
46.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.3%#185 | 54.1%#42 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 29.0%#353 | 40.0%#191 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 30.8%#348 | 36.0%#109 | 38.0% |
| Three | 28.7%#358 | 32.7%#102 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMcNeese
+6.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#12 of 365
Off reb %
35.1%
#46
Def reb %
65.1%
#338
Turnover %
14.2%
#28
Forced TO %
24.5%
#1
FT rate
37.4%
#114
FT allowed
42.1%
#323
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security+1.8
Forcing turnovers+5.3
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−1.7
North Texas
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#85 of 365
Off reb %
33.5%
#76
Def reb %
67.6%
#278
Turnover %
16.7%
#180
Forced TO %
21.3%
#6
FT rate
39.6%
#63
FT allowed
45.1%
#350
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+3.2
Foul shots drawn+1.2
Foul shots allowed−2.5
McNeese has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.1 (#12 of 365) to North Texas’s +2.2 (#85).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
McNeese2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javohn Garcia | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-30 | 29.7 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 53.3% | 37.4% | 3.6 | 76.7% | 22.5% | |
| 8 | Tyshawn Archie | G | Jr | 6'1" | 34-24 | 25.6 | 14.3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 51.2% | 36.9% | 5.2 | 90.0% | 34.2% | |
| 6 | Larry Johnson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 34-26 | 25.4 | 17.4 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 52.1% | 23.8% | 3.1 | 77.7% | 38.6% | |
| 2 | DJ Richards Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-9 | 22.0 | 8.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 51.4% | 35.9% | 5.0 | 78.5% | 22.2% | |
| 7 | Jerrell Colbert | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-24 | 19.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 55.6% | 20.0% | 0.1 | 56.0% | 18.4% | |
| 10 | Jacolb Fredson-Cole | F | So | 6'7" | 34-15 | 18.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 42.0% | 13.5% | 1.1 | 77.4% | 20.0% | |
| 23 | Carl Cherenfant | G | Jr | 6'5" | 33-15 | 16.3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 50.5% | 21.4% | 0.8 | 73.5% | 16.4% | |
| 15 | Peitok Machar | F | So | 6'10" | 34-6 | 12.5 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 70.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 57.7% | 13.5% | |
| 13 | Yanis Ndjonga | F | Jr | 6'8" | 27-4 | 10.7 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 65.9% | 33.3% | 0.2 | 83.3% | 11.7% | |
| 9 | JJ Rembert | G | Fr | 5'10" | 8-0 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 18.0% | |
| 27 | Abdou Akim Mazou Tahirou | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Erik Villarreal | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Kaleb Brewer | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | T'Johnn Brown | G | Jr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
North Texas2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | David Terrell Jr. | G | Jr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 32.8 | 13.5 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 45.6% | 25.7% | 2.1 | 67.3% | 28.1% | |
| 4 | Je'Shawn Stevenson | G | So | 6'2" | 33-33 | 32.2 | 17.3 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 46.3% | 30.3% | 7.4 | 83.6% | 33.9% | |
| 12 | Dylan Arnett | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 26.5 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 47.1% | — | 0.0 | 41.9% | 21.6% | |
| 10 | Cole Franklin | G | Jr | 6'4" | 33-23 | 25.1 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 45.6% | 26.2% | 1.8 | 66.1% | 17.3% | |
| 15 | Reece Robinson | F | So | 6'8" | 33-33 | 22.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 54.8% | 34.0% | 1.5 | 72.4% | 20.0% | |
| 0 | Demarion Watson | G | Sr | 6'7" | 32-10 | 14.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 40.4% | 26.2% | 1.3 | 70.0% | 13.5% | |
| 2 | Cahmai Crosby | G | Jr | 6'3" | 33-0 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 48.8% | 34.7% | 2.2 | 62.5% | 18.5% | |
| 8 | Josiah Shackleford | F | Sr | 6'9" | 25-0 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 55.8% | — | 0.0 | 46.0% | 31.5% | |
| 6 | EJ Horton | G | Fr | 6'3" | 30-0 | 10.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 49.3% | 25.7% | 1.2 | 60.9% | 20.8% | |
| 11 | Curtis Stinson Jr. | G | Fr | 6'5" | 32-0 | 8.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 29.5% | 12.5% | 0.3 | 86.7% | 16.8% | |
| 1 | Will McClendon | G | Sr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 24.3 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 51.7% | 45.0% | 5.0 | 84.0% | 29.4% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
McNeese2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javohn Garcia | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-30 | 29.7 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 53.3% | 37.4% | 3.6 | 76.7% | 22.5% | |
| 8 | Tyshawn Archie | G | Jr | 6'1" | 34-24 | 25.6 | 14.3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 51.2% | 36.9% | 5.2 | 90.0% | 34.2% | |
| 6 | Larry Johnson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 34-26 | 25.4 | 17.4 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 52.1% | 23.8% | 3.1 | 77.7% | 38.6% | |
| 2 | DJ Richards Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-9 | 22.0 | 8.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 51.4% | 35.9% | 5.0 | 78.5% | 22.2% | |
| 7 | Jerrell Colbert | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-24 | 19.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 55.6% | 20.0% | 0.1 | 56.0% | 18.4% | |
| 10 | Jacolb Fredson-Cole | F | So | 6'7" | 34-15 | 18.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 42.0% | 13.5% | 1.1 | 77.4% | 20.0% | |
| 23 | Carl Cherenfant | G | Jr | 6'5" | 33-15 | 16.3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 50.5% | 21.4% | 0.8 | 73.5% | 16.4% | |
| 15 | Peitok Machar | F | So | 6'10" | 34-6 | 12.5 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 70.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 57.7% | 13.5% | |
| 13 | Yanis Ndjonga | F | Jr | 6'8" | 27-4 | 10.7 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 65.9% | 33.3% | 0.2 | 83.3% | 11.7% | |
| 9 | JJ Rembert | G | Fr | 5'10" | 8-0 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 18.0% | |
| 27 | Abdou Akim Mazou Tahirou | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Erik Villarreal | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Kaleb Brewer | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | T'Johnn Brown | G | Jr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26McNeese
Against the spread
Season
13-17-2
Home
6-6
Road
2-10-2
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover +1.2
Covered 2 straightCovered 3 of 9 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 3 of 8 with a line of 10+, 1 push
Over / under
Season
15-17
Home
6-6
Road
6-8
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −0.9
Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 8 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #5Vanderbilt | N | L 68–78 | +12.0 | W+2.0 | 148.0 | U146 | 106.4 | 122.1 | 63.9 |
| Mar 11 | SF Austin | N | W 76–59 | −3.5 | W+13.5 | 134.5 | O135 | 119.0 | 92.4 | 63.9 |
| Mar 10 | UT Rio Grande | N | W 84–80 3OT | −7.0 | L−3.0 | 141.0 | O164 | 98.4 | 93.8 | 85.3 |
| Mar 2 | Nicholls | A | W 75–65 | −10.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U140 | 111.5 | 96.6 | 67.3 |
| Feb 28 | LSU N Orleans | A | W 66–63 | −10.0 | L−7.0 | 150.5 | U129 | 102.1 | 97.5 | 64.6 |
| Feb 23 | UT Rio Grande | H | W 75–68 | −12.0 | L−5.0 | 146.0 | U143 | 108.8 | 98.7 | 68.9 |
| Feb 21 | Texas A&M-CC | H | W 70–54 | −14.0 | W+2.0 | 140.5 | U124 | 106.7 | 82.3 | 65.6 |
| Feb 16 | N'Western St | A | W 75–64 | −14.0 | L−3.0 | 137.5 | O139 | 118.2 | 100.9 | 63.5 |
| Feb 14 | East Texas A&M | A | W 97–54 | −13.5 | W+29.5 | 142.5 | O151 | 142.4 | 79.3 | 68.1 |
| Feb 9 | Hou Christian | H | W 73–69 | −20.5 | L−16.5 | 137.0 | O142 | 108.1 | 102.1 | 67.6 |
North Texas
Against the spread
Season
17-14
Home
6-9
Road
7-5
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +2.1
Covered 2 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-16-1
Home
7-8
Road
5-6-1
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +4.0
Over 2 straightOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | Tulsa | N | L 84–90 3OT | +8.5 | W+2.5 | 142.0 | O174 | 92.1 | 98.7 | 91.2 |
| Mar 12 | FAU | N | W 74–70 | −1.5 | W+2.5 | 137.0 | O144 | 103.4 | 97.8 | 71.5 |
| Mar 4 | Rice | H | W 62–58 | −6.5 | L−2.5 | 138.0 | U120 | 101.6 | 95.0 | 61.0 |
| Mar 1 | UAB | A | W 62–58 | +5.0 | W+9.0 | 141.5 | U120 | 96.7 | 90.4 | 64.1 |
| Feb 25 | Charlotte | A | L 79–80 | −1.5 | L−2.5 | 133.5 | O159 | 124.8 | 126.4 | 63.3 |
| Feb 22 | FAU | H | W 73–72 | −2.5 | L−1.5 | 140.5 | O145 | 113.7 | 112.1 | 64.2 |
| Feb 19 | Tulane | H | L 71–77 | −6.5 | L−12.5 | 137.5 | O148 | 108.3 | 117.4 | 65.6 |
| Feb 15 | Temple | A | W 65–62 | +2.0 | W+5.0 | 135.0 | U127 | 101.9 | 97.2 | 63.8 |
| Feb 12 | Memphis | H | W 76–69 | +1.5 | W+8.5 | 138.0 | O145 | 110.5 | 100.3 | 68.8 |
| Feb 7 | UTSA | A | W 81–58 | −10.0 | W+13.0 | 138.5 | O139 | 116.1 | 83.2 | 69.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMcNeeseNorth Texas
Efficiency
113.0
104.4
103.4
103.2
67.4
66.8
—
—
Shooting
50.7%
46.0%
52.3%
47.4%
31.7%
28.7%
74.4%
70.0%
37.4%
39.6%
Ball control & glass
14.2%
16.7%
24.5%
21.3%
35.1%
33.5%
34.9%
32.4%
6.7%
9.3%
6.7%
11.2%
Style
35.2%
32.3%
46.2%
49.5%
19.1%
19.9%
49.0%
50.5%
40.0%
31.3%
Roster
2.91
2.80
6'5.1"
6'5.2"
86.9%
93.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMcNeese
Returning minutes: 86.9%Returning production: 86.3%
Lost
- Garwey Dual 26.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
Added
- Kaleb Brewer no D1 minutes last season
- T'Johnn Brown no D1 minutes last season
- Erik Villarreal no D1 minutes last season
- Abdou Akim Mazou Tahirou no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
North Texas
Returning minutes: 93.9%Returning production: 93.6%
Lost
- Buddy Hammer Jr. 12.5 mpg, 3.6 ppg · transferred to Akron
Added
Nobody of note.
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.