CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJadwin Gymnasium, Princeton, NJ
Hofstra
Efficiency #69
2025-26: 24-11 · 15-6 conf
@
Princeton
Efficiency #251
2025-26: 9-20 · 5-9 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · 7:00 PM ET
71.3
win 62%
Projected
67.7
win 38%
No line posted yet.
Model: HOF −3.6 · total 139.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Princeton 66.1, Hofstra 66.5 → 64.3 possessions
−8.8
Princeton offense vs Hofstra defense
−3.9
Hofstra offense vs Princeton defense
+3.4
Projected total
139.0
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Princeton offense vs Hofstra defense
−3.9
Hofstra offense vs Princeton defense
−3.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Hofstra by 3.6
3.6
Hofstra side ◂▸ Princeton side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 138.9 against a projected 139.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Princeton.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Hofstra is the faster team (65.4, #319 of 365) and Princeton the slower (64.5, #342). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
64.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.0
model
Projected team totals
71.3 / 67.7
Hofstra / Princeton
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.5#318
Hofstra
66.1#341
Princeton

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantagePrinceton
Where Princeton struggles: shooting
Princeton shoots an effective 49.6% (#260); Hofstra allows 46.3% (#14). Expect about 47.7%, 3.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.0 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Princeton averages 64.5 possessions per 40, Hofstra 65.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 63 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageHofstra
Where Hofstra scores: ball control
Hofstra turns it over on 16.1% of possessions (#149); Princeton forces turnovers on 14.3% of opponent possessions (#327). Expect about 14.8%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Hofstra, Princeton's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Hofstra at about 43.4% of its shots from three, Princeton about 44.5%.
ClashPrinceton
Style match: paint scoring
Princeton gets only 36.7% of its points in the paint; Hofstra protects the paint (36.8% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 39.3% — both habits push the same way.
ClashHofstra
Strength vs strength: 3-point shooting
Hofstra (#25 in 3-point shooting) against Princeton (#36 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.2%. Historically Hofstra's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.25 vs 0.16).
Hofstra has the ball
OffensePrinceton allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #178
52.0% #209
+0.6 pt/100
16.1% #149
14.3% #327
+2.4 pt/100
34.7% #54
28.5% #82
+1.3 pt/100
31.6% #264
34.0% #152
-0.3 pt/100
75.8% #56
—
+0.3 pt/100
Hofstra net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.3 pts/100
Princeton has the ball
OffenseHofstra allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #260
46.3% #14
-5.0 pt/100
17.1% #211
14.9% #292
+1.2 pt/100
27.2% #287
31.0% #201
-1.2 pt/100
34.6% #192
35.1% #182
-0.0 pt/100
74.8% #90
—
+0.2 pt/100
Princeton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Hofstraoffense vsPrincetondefense
Share of shots by zone
Hofstra shoots
Princeton allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.2%#26761.4%#28358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.5%#18645.1%#30139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.9%#22642.3%#31338.0%
Three37.1%#2531.1%#3633.7%
Princetonoffense vsHofstradefense
Share of shots by zone
Princeton shoots
Hofstra allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.0%#34151.9%#1558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)45.0%#6522.3%#139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.5%#17039.7%#22938.0%
Three33.9%#17732.3%#7833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Hofstra
−0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#191 of 365
Off reb %
34.7%
#54
Def reb %
69.0%
#201
Turnover %
16.1%
#149
Forced TO %
14.9%
#292
FT rate
31.6%
#264
FT allowed
35.1%
#182
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.4
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed0.0
Princeton
−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#268 of 365
Off reb %
27.2%
#287
Def reb %
71.5%
#82
Turnover %
17.1%
#211
Forced TO %
14.3%
#327
FT rate
34.6%
#192
FT allowed
34.0%
#152
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−1.7
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed+0.3

Hofstra has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.3 (#191 of 365) to Princeton’s −2.0 (#268).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Hofstra2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Hofstra's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
5Cruz DavisGJr6'3"35-3537.920.13.74.72.551.6%40.0%5.983.0%32.7%
1Preston EdmeadGFr6'1"35-3533.916.13.54.42.251.7%38.7%7.183.3%29.2%
25German PlotnikovGSr6'5"33-3332.39.43.30.80.854.9%38.1%4.785.1%16.7%
4Joshua DeCadyFSo6'8"33-2324.16.23.40.60.846.2%28.1%1.757.7%18.2%
33Silas SundayFSr7'0"35-1819.75.16.80.71.365.3%0.0%0.064.9%15.8%
0Biggie PattersonGSr6'7"31-1420.99.55.60.40.947.6%31.5%3.674.6%29.4%
6Victory OnuetuFJr6'10"35-1717.94.76.90.41.056.6%—0.049.0%17.6%
15Joshua Aaron ReavesGSr6'3"23-010.82.52.10.10.150.0%34.9%1.983.3%14.2%
7Jaeden RobertsGFr6'3"23-08.34.10.80.80.256.3%41.2%2.250.0%28.5%
2A.J. WillsGJr6'0"17-010.83.40.40.70.445.7%33.3%1.680.0%22.0%
17Alex TsynkevichCSr6'10"16-04.30.81.40.10.150.0%—0.033.3%13.1%
11Amir WilliamsGSo6'4"3-05.71.31.70.00.350.0%0.0%0.7—17.4%
55Brandon MorganGSr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Carlos LopezGJr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3Trey Boyd IIIGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
HofstraPrinceton
Efficiency
112.4
105.7
105.3
109.9
66.5
66.1
—
—
Shooting
51.4%
49.6%
48.1%
48.6%
37.1%
33.9%
75.8%
74.8%
31.6%
34.6%
Ball control & glass
16.1%
17.1%
14.9%
14.3%
34.7%
27.2%
31.0%
28.5%
7.7%
10.2%
10.7%
10.3%
Style
42.8%
44.5%
35.9%
36.7%
9.0%
4.4%
48.3%
55.0%
25.2%
27.9%
Roster
2.88
2.10
6'5.4"
6'5.6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Hofstra
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Hofstra's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Princeton
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Princeton's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.