CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceAlumni Hall (Navy), Annapolis, MD
Delaware St
Efficiency #358
2025-26: 8-23 · 3-13 conf
@
Navy
Efficiency #104
2025-26: 26-8 · 18-2 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · 7:00 PM ET
57.8
win 7%
Projected
74.6
win 93%
No line posted yet.
Model: NAVY −16.8 · total 132.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Navy 66.8, Delaware St 67.1 → 65.6 possessions
−5.9
Navy offense vs Delaware St defense
+1.5
Delaware St offense vs Navy defense
−11.5
Projected total
132.3
Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Navy offense vs Delaware St defense
+1.5
Delaware St offense vs Navy defense
+11.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Navy by 16.8
16.8
Delaware St side ◂▸ Navy side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Navy.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Delaware St is the faster team (66.1, #293 of 365) and Navy the slower (65.2, #327). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
132.3
model
Projected team totals
57.8 / 74.6
Delaware St / Navy
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.1#279
Delaware St
66.8#301
Navy

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageDelaware St
Where Delaware St struggles: shooting
Delaware St shoots an effective 42.9% (#364); Navy allows 48.3% (#42). Expect about 44.9%, 6.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -9.1 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Navy averages 65.2 possessions per 40, Delaware St 66.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversDelaware St
Delaware St turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.5% is worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions against Delaware St's offense.
AdvantageNavy
Where Navy scores: shooting
Navy shoots an effective 53.1% (#100); Delaware St allows 52.9% (#265). Expect about 53.2%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.
ClashNavy
Style match: 3-point volume
Navy rarely shoots threes (33.1% of its shots); Delaware St runs teams off the line (34.7% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.3% — both habits push the same way.
TurnoversNavy
Navy turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Navy's offense.
Delaware St has the ball
OffenseNavy allowsvs D1 avg
42.9% #364
48.3% #42
-9.1 pt/100
19.9% #347
18.3% #83
-3.4 pt/100
27.7% #277
27.4% #49
-2.0 pt/100
34.1% #204
26.0% #13
-0.7 pt/100
68.9% #301
—
-0.3 pt/100
Delaware St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -15.5 pts/100
Navy has the ball
OffenseDelaware St allowsvs D1 avg
53.1% #100
52.9% #265
+2.7 pt/100
16.8% #190
19.5% #33
-2.2 pt/100
31.9% #126
32.0% #257
+1.1 pt/100
38.8% #82
40.5% #307
+0.6 pt/100
73.6% #145
—
+0.1 pt/100
Navy net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Delaware Stoffense vsNavydefense
Share of shots by zone
Delaware St shoots
Navy allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim50.7%#35561.7%#29558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.0%#33236.1%#9139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.5%#27538.0%#15938.0%
Three28.4%#36130.0%#733.7%
Navyoffense vsDelaware Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Navy shoots
Delaware St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.8%#12363.0%#32558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)48.4%#1935.4%#7139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.5%#17232.4%#1938.0%
Three35.8%#6433.0%#12333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Delaware St
−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#306 of 365
Off reb %
27.7%
#277
Def reb %
68.0%
#257
Turnover %
19.9%
#347
Forced TO %
19.5%
#33
FT rate
34.1%
#204
FT allowed
40.5%
#307
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−2.1
Forcing turnovers+1.9
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed−1.4
Navy
+6.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#14 of 365
Off reb %
31.9%
#126
Def reb %
72.6%
#49
Turnover %
16.8%
#190
Forced TO %
18.3%
#83
FT rate
38.8%
#82
FT allowed
26.0%
#13
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn+1.0
Foul shots allowed+2.4

Navy has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.0 (#14 of 365) to Delaware St’s −3.1 (#306).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Delaware St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Delaware St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Ponce JamesGSo5'11"27-2732.813.62.93.42.144.4%32.8%4.584.7%29.4%
2Corey PerkinsGSr6'2"28-2027.37.32.52.92.343.4%32.5%1.467.6%21.8%
3Miles WebbFSr6'8"26-2027.39.55.90.71.658.4%40.9%0.848.1%21.8%
42Bessanty SaragbaFSr6'9"25-1722.13.23.20.20.745.2%—0.056.0%11.1%
0Rahmir MooreGSr6'3"26-2221.26.62.81.11.043.8%31.3%2.675.8%21.4%
4Zion BetheaGSr6'4"29-1415.35.42.20.61.040.0%26.8%2.866.7%27.9%
37Ademar SantosFJr6'8"22-1220.07.12.40.51.143.9%30.3%3.076.0%25.8%
8Jalen St ClairGFr6'1"25-014.33.60.91.21.036.3%17.9%1.161.1%22.9%
10Cyril ObasogieCJr6'11"24-1114.82.84.00.30.543.5%—0.043.8%15.4%
35Muazibini AdamuCJr6'10"25-612.91.93.20.30.842.9%—0.033.3%14.0%
22Dean ShepherdGJr6'3"27-311.54.01.30.40.437.5%21.7%0.976.9%22.3%
13Kareem WatsonFSo6'8"19-211.13.81.90.31.039.8%0.0%0.170.0%30.5%
11Camian ShellGSr5'10"7-124.08.01.91.92.450.0%50.0%1.166.7%24.9%
5John ClemmonsGSo6'6"23-07.02.71.20.00.530.2%17.2%1.377.8%31.6%
—Omar StephenFSr—7-02.11.30.30.00.050.0%50.0%0.366.7%32.5%
—Theodore Pendergrass IIIGSo6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Delaware StNavy
Efficiency
94.5
108.5
110.7
104.9
67.1
66.8
—
—
Shooting
42.9%
53.1%
43.1%
52.7%
28.4%
35.8%
68.9%
73.6%
34.1%
38.8%
Ball control & glass
19.9%
16.8%
19.5%
18.3%
27.7%
31.9%
32.0%
27.4%
9.7%
9.2%
11.0%
7.8%
Style
28.9%
33.1%
41.6%
44.8%
17.6%
11.6%
45.8%
61.2%
35.2%
25.5%
Roster
3.20
3.56
6'4.6"
6'3.7"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Delaware St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Delaware St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Navy
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Navy's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Wed, Dec 32025-26Navy 66 – 59 Delaware St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.