CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceHynes Athletics Center, New Rochelle, NYAmerica East-Metro Challenge
NJIT
Efficiency #331
2025-26: 16-17 · 11-7 conf
@
Iona
Efficiency #227
2025-26: 18-14 · 10-11 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · 7:00 PM ET
68.2
win 21%
Projected
77.4
win 79%
No line posted yet.
Model: IONA −9.2 · total 145.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Iona 69.4, NJIT 68.7 → 69.8 possessions
+3.3
Iona offense vs NJIT defense
−0.4
NJIT offense vs Iona defense
−5.5
Projected total
145.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Iona offense vs NJIT defense
−0.4
NJIT offense vs Iona defense
+5.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Iona by 9.2
9.2
NJIT side ◂▸ Iona side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +9.1 against +9.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Iona.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Iona is the faster team (68.4, #177 of 365) and NJIT the slower (67.9, #204). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.6
model
Projected team totals
68.2 / 77.4
NJIT / Iona
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.7#140
NJIT
69.4#87
Iona

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageNJIT
Where NJIT struggles: shooting
NJIT shoots an effective 46.7% (#342); Iona allows 48.9% (#64). Expect about 47.4%, 3.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.5 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (NJIT, Iona's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect NJIT at about 40.8% of its shots from three, Iona about 45.4%.
GlassNJIT
NJIT gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.9% is worth roughly -1.5 points per 100 possessions against NJIT's offense.
ClashNJIT
Style clash: ball movement
NJIT creates off the dribble (assists on 45.7% of its baskets); Iona allows assists on 56.5% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 50.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
NJIT has the ball
OffenseIona allowsvs D1 avg
46.7% #342
48.9% #64
-5.5 pt/100
17.1% #210
16.6% #178
-0.1 pt/100
26.2% #316
31.2% #212
-1.5 pt/100
33.2% #233
28.8% #40
-0.6 pt/100
70.5% #253
—
-0.2 pt/100
NJIT net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.8 pts/100
Iona has the ball
OffenseNJIT allowsvs D1 avg
51.9% #149
50.0% #99
-0.4 pt/100
17.2% #221
16.2% #210
+0.1 pt/100
27.8% #274
32.1% #264
-0.6 pt/100
29.3% #326
37.9% #258
-0.1 pt/100
70.7% #250
—
-0.2 pt/100
Iona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
NJIToffense vsIonadefense
Share of shots by zone
NJIT shoots
Iona allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.7%#32457.4%#12658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.7%#15239.5%#17439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.4%#17535.9%#10738.0%
Three30.4%#33630.6%#2533.7%
Ionaoffense vsNJITdefense
Share of shots by zone
Iona shoots
NJIT allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.7%#28157.8%#14258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.2%#24143.7%#26139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.8%#11730.7%#738.0%
Three35.1%#10532.3%#7933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
NJIT
−3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#316 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#316
Def reb %
67.9%
#264
Turnover %
17.1%
#210
Forced TO %
16.2%
#210
FT rate
33.2%
#233
FT allowed
37.9%
#258
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn−0.5
Foul shots allowed−0.7
Iona
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#242 of 365
Off reb %
27.8%
#274
Def reb %
68.8%
#212
Turnover %
17.2%
#221
Forced TO %
16.6%
#178
FT rate
29.3%
#326
FT allowed
28.8%
#40
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed+1.7

Iona has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.2 (#242 of 365) to NJIT’s −3.5 (#316).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

NJIT2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted NJIT's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1David BoldenGFr6'0"33-3329.811.82.82.82.041.9%31.8%6.780.2%28.6%
24Ari FultonGSo6'7"33-3228.310.96.21.21.547.1%26.2%3.278.9%24.2%
3Jordan RogersFSo6'6"33-3326.65.85.22.21.554.7%33.3%1.866.7%14.7%
0Sebastian RobinsonGJr6'3"30-1527.414.83.02.21.946.8%24.0%1.770.1%35.7%
11Melvyn EbonkoliFSr6'8"21-1826.17.35.70.61.751.6%—0.052.4%20.1%
25John KellyFSo6'8"33-015.64.32.50.40.647.1%34.2%1.268.8%17.6%
14Quentin DuncanGSo6'4"33-413.64.41.70.50.350.8%37.6%2.652.0%19.9%
44Rocco AwadGFr6'1"33-112.83.11.30.30.639.2%26.4%2.676.9%19.7%
32Malachi ArringtonCSo6'11"29-1514.23.93.70.00.759.7%—0.055.3%16.4%
2Jeremy ClayvilleGSo6'1"16-1419.46.81.51.51.342.7%30.1%5.2100.0%26.6%
33Zack ScherlerFFr6'11"19-06.51.01.20.20.350.0%—0.055.6%10.8%
8Jeffrey AkintoluFJr6'7"19-05.60.70.90.00.230.0%13.3%0.850.0%13.9%
7Cameron PiggeeGJr6'1"18-05.41.80.30.40.241.9%32.0%1.485.7%21.9%
5AJ AltobelliGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Stefan Jimenez-VojnicCSo6'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
NJITIona
Efficiency
100.5
105.8
110.6
108.5
68.7
69.4
—
—
Shooting
46.7%
51.9%
47.5%
51.2%
30.4%
35.1%
70.5%
70.7%
33.2%
29.3%
Ball control & glass
17.1%
17.2%
16.2%
16.6%
26.2%
27.8%
32.1%
31.2%
9.6%
10.7%
9.0%
11.1%
Style
40.1%
45.9%
40.9%
40.3%
12.9%
11.8%
45.7%
53.7%
33.0%
31.4%
Roster
2.09
3.25
6'4.9"
6'6"
—
27.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
NJIT
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted NJIT's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Iona
Returning minutes: 27.4%Returning production: 24.8%
Lost
  • CJ Anthony 30.8 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Lamin Sabally 29.4 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Denver Anglin 27.2 mpg, 9.0 ppg · transferred to Merrimack
  • Toby Harris 26.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Keshawn Williams 11.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Khalil Badru 9.8 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kevon Vanderhorst from Drexel · 29.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
  • Martin Kheil from Idaho St · 27.8 mpg, 8.5 ppg last season
  • Aiden Disu from Holy Cross · 24.1 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
  • Sadiku Ibine Ayo from St John's · 6.2 mpg, 1.4 ppg last season
  • Keyshawn Mitchell from VCU · 5.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg last season
  • Ore Odutayo no D1 minutes last season

Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.