CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceM&T Bank Arena, Hamden, CTAmerica East-Metro Challenge
Bryant
Efficiency #347
2025-26: 9-22 · 5-12 conf
@
Quinnipiac
Efficiency #190
2025-26: 19-13 · 12-9 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · TBD
65.3
win 15%
Projected
77.4
win 85%
No line posted yet.
Model: QUIN −12.1 · total 142.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Quinnipiac 70.1, Bryant 66.3 → 68.0 possessions
−0.6
Quinnipiac offense vs Bryant defense
+1.7
Bryant offense vs Quinnipiac defense
−6.6
Projected total
142.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Quinnipiac offense vs Bryant defense
+1.7
Bryant offense vs Quinnipiac defense
+6.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Quinnipiac by 12.1
12.1
Bryant side ◂▸ Quinnipiac side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +12.2 against +12.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Quinnipiac.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Quinnipiac is the faster team (69.7, #101 of 365) and Bryant the slower (64.4, #347). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.7
model
Projected team totals
65.3 / 77.4
Bryant / Quinnipiac
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.3#330
Bryant
70.1#45
Quinnipiac

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageBryant
Where Bryant struggles: shooting
Bryant shoots an effective 46.9% (#340); Quinnipiac allows 48.9% (#65). Expect about 47.5%, 3.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.3 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversBryant
Bryant turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.1% is worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions against Bryant's offense.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Quinnipiac averages 69.7 possessions per 40, Bryant 64.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageQuinnipiac
Where Quinnipiac scores: ball control
Quinnipiac turns it over on 15.9% of possessions (#130); Bryant forces turnovers on 14.6% of opponent possessions (#316). Expect about 14.9%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.
ClashQuinnipiac
Style match: 3-point volume
Quinnipiac rarely shoots threes (33.7% of its shots); Bryant runs teams off the line (35.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.5% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Bryant, Bryant's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bryant at about 43.6% of its shots from three, Quinnipiac about 32.5%.
Bryant has the ball
OffenseQuinnipiac allowsvs D1 avg
46.9% #340
48.9% #65
-5.3 pt/100
20.2% #351
17.4% #127
-2.9 pt/100
27.7% #276
32.0% #253
-0.7 pt/100
29.4% #322
30.6% #75
-0.7 pt/100
76.0% #53
—
+0.3 pt/100
Bryant net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.3 pts/100
Quinnipiac has the ball
OffenseBryant allowsvs D1 avg
48.2% #310
52.7% #257
-1.5 pt/100
15.9% #130
14.6% #316
+2.3 pt/100
34.1% #65
31.0% #203
+1.7 pt/100
33.8% #217
33.5% #141
-0.2 pt/100
69.1% #297
—
-0.3 pt/100
Quinnipiac net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Bryantoffense vsQuinnipiacdefense
Share of shots by zone
Bryant shoots
Quinnipiac allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.6%#28352.6%#2058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.6%#27735.1%#6039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)27.8%#36335.1%#8138.0%
Three30.0%#34334.9%#24233.7%
Quinnipiacoffense vsBryantdefense
Share of shots by zone
Quinnipiac shoots
Bryant allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.9%#30157.5%#12858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)30.0%#34944.0%#26739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)31.1%#34634.7%#6538.0%
Three34.0%#17136.3%#32033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Bryant
−5.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#354 of 365
Off reb %
27.7%
#276
Def reb %
69.0%
#203
Turnover %
20.2%
#351
Forced TO %
14.6%
#316
FT rate
29.4%
#322
FT allowed
33.5%
#141
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−2.4
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn−1.4
Foul shots allowed+0.4
Quinnipiac
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#66 of 365
Off reb %
34.1%
#65
Def reb %
68.0%
#253
Turnover %
15.9%
#130
Forced TO %
17.4%
#127
FT rate
33.8%
#217
FT allowed
30.6%
#75
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.5
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+1.2

Quinnipiac has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#66 of 365) to Bryant’s −5.8 (#354).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bryant2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Bryant's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
99Timofei RudovskiiFFr6'9"31-3131.512.94.71.82.552.0%36.2%6.083.7%27.3%
0Ashley Sims IIFFr6'8"31-2931.47.25.02.01.250.5%17.9%1.348.9%16.4%
1Ty TabalesGFr6'2"30-2827.99.12.23.52.539.4%26.4%5.980.4%29.1%
14Keegan HarveyFSr6'11"31-3126.511.24.91.12.060.4%40.0%2.383.2%24.7%
3Aaron Davis IIIFJr6'7"30-1623.39.53.50.71.152.6%36.3%5.367.2%26.2%
13Jakai RobinsonGSr6'5"30-415.93.12.00.90.440.0%20.0%0.382.0%13.2%
4Quincy AllenGSr6'8"16-924.69.84.31.01.346.2%26.9%4.262.9%27.1%
2Khalil WilliamsFSo6'5"22-511.42.81.61.11.232.1%21.3%2.190.9%27.4%
9Gio SanfordFFr6'4"18-013.21.81.30.70.440.3%9.1%0.657.1%11.8%
11Ethane BourgadeFFr6'9"20-010.11.41.80.30.330.6%14.3%0.352.9%13.4%
8Lennart WeberFSr6'8"20-09.42.41.50.40.347.7%21.1%0.966.7%17.2%
10Daniel AkoueFFr6'10"12-211.73.02.10.31.147.8%18.2%0.977.8%19.2%
7Joe GreenGFr6'3"9-04.91.10.30.30.744.4%—0.0100.0%21.2%
6Langston BaileyGSo5'9"7-02.01.70.10.00.662.5%40.0%0.7100.0%54.1%
21Frankie VassalluzzoGSo6'0"7-01.30.00.30.00.00.0%0.0%0.3—26.6%
22Jason SepeFSo6'3"6-01.00.30.00.00.0100.0%—0.0—9.9%
5Jaheim NyamGJr6'3"5-01.00.00.00.00.20.0%0.0%0.2—47.8%
30Michael DeOrseyGFr5'11"5-01.00.00.00.00.00.0%—0.0—23.9%
25Reed WoernerGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
BryantQuinnipiac
Efficiency
100.5
106.0
113.4
106.8
66.3
70.1
—
—
Shooting
46.9%
48.2%
48.7%
46.7%
30.0%
34.0%
76.0%
69.1%
29.4%
33.8%
Ball control & glass
20.2%
15.9%
14.6%
17.4%
27.7%
34.1%
31.0%
32.0%
12.2%
9.4%
8.7%
11.2%
Style
47.9%
33.7%
39.2%
43.5%
7.9%
15.7%
53.1%
49.4%
28.4%
29.9%
Roster
2.17
1.99
6'7.1"
6'5.8"
—
25.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Bryant
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Bryant's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Quinnipiac
Returning minutes: 25.8%Returning production: 25.9%
Lost
  • Grant Randall 31.7 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Amarri Monroe 31.3 mpg, 14.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Asim Jones 28.8 mpg, 12.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaden Zimmerman 26.3 mpg, 12.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Spence Wewe 16.5 mpg, 2.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Samson Reilly 7.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart
Added
  • Holden Pierre-Louis from Cleveland St · 14.2 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
  • Nas Hart from La Salle · 6.6 mpg, 1.4 ppg last season
  • Ali Diouf no D1 minutes last season
  • Jayden Reid no D1 minutes last season
  • Nedas Cholevinskas no D1 minutes last season
  • Mike Parrotta no D1 minutes last season

Returns 26% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.