CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceStephen C. O'Connell Center, Gainesville, FL

Jacksonville

Efficiency #294

2025-26: 12-20 · 7-12 conf

Florida

Efficiency #5

2025-26: 27-8 · 17-3 conf

Thu, Nov 5 · TBD

61.9

win 2%

Projected

84.9

win 98%

No line posted yet.

Model: FLA −23.1 · total 146.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Florida 70.2, Jacksonville 65.8 → 67.7 possessions

−1.4

Florida offense vs Jacksonville defense

+9.6

Jacksonville offense vs Florida defense

−9.6

Projected total

146.8

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Florida offense vs Jacksonville defense

+9.6

Jacksonville offense vs Florida defense

+9.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Florida by 23.1

23.1

Jacksonville side ◂▸ Florida side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Florida.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Florida is the faster team (72.0, #23 of 365) and Jacksonville the slower (65.2, #328). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

146.8

model

Projected team totals

61.9 / 84.9

Jacksonville / Florida

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.8#348

Jacksonville

70.2#35

Florida

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageFlorida

Where Florida scores: the offensive glass

Florida rebounds 43.3% of its own misses (#2); Jacksonville lets opponents grab 29.1% of their own misses (#115). Expect about 38.8%, 8.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.1 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageJacksonville

Where Jacksonville struggles: shooting

Jacksonville shoots an effective 50.0% (#232); Florida allows 46.1% (#10). Expect about 47.9%, 3.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.8 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Florida averages 72.0 possessions per 40, Jacksonville 65.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashJacksonville

Style match: ball movement

Jacksonville creates off the dribble (assists on 44.7% of its baskets); Florida breaks up passing offenses (assists on 44.6% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 42.4% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Jacksonville's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Jacksonville at about 34.3% of its shots from three, Florida about 34.8%.

TurnoversFlorida

Florida protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.4% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for Florida's offense.

Jacksonville has the ball

OffenseFlorida allowsvs D1 avg

50.0% #232

46.1% #10

-4.8 pt/100

17.2% #223

15.3% #269

+0.8 pt/100

31.7% #137

24.8% #7

-1.1 pt/100

32.8% #242

34.0% #153

-0.2 pt/100

72.3% #198

—

-0.0 pt/100

Jacksonville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.2 pts/100

Florida has the ball

OffenseJacksonville allowsvs D1 avg

54.1% #63

54.8% #325

+4.9 pt/100

16.3% #160

15.0% #290

+1.7 pt/100

43.3% #2

29.1% #115

+5.1 pt/100

39.0% #80

42.7% #336

+0.8 pt/100

71.2% #232

—

-0.1 pt/100

Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +12.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Jacksonvilleoffense vsFloridadefense

Share of shots by zone

Jacksonville shoots

41.3

5.4

16.2

37.0

Florida allows

38.8

7.9

20.9

32.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#235	50.6%#5	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.4%#346	34.8%#53	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.6%#89	34.9%#73	38.0%
Three	31.7%#289	32.1%#66	33.7%

Floridaoffense vsJacksonvilledefense

Share of shots by zone

Florida shoots

44.2

7.3

10.3

38.2

Jacksonville allows

46.3

7.1

12.1

34.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.9%#24	62.6%#312	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.9%#52	35.6%#79	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.4%#97	34.9%#74	38.0%
Three	31.2%#315	36.3%#318	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Jacksonville

−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#307 of 365

Off reb %

31.7%

#137

Def reb %

70.9%

#115

Turnover %

17.2%

#223

Forced TO %

15.0%

#290

FT rate

32.8%

#242

FT allowed

42.7%

#336

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−1.9

Florida

+6.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#8 of 365

Off reb %

43.3%

Def reb %

75.2%

Turnover %

16.3%

#160

Forced TO %

15.3%

#269

FT rate

39.0%

#80

FT allowed

34.0%

#153

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+4.2

Defensive rebounding+1.9

Ball security+0.3

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn+1.0

Foul shots allowed+0.3

Florida has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.7 (#8 of 365) to Jacksonville’s −3.1 (#307).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Jacksonville2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Jacksonville's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Hayden Wood	G	Fr	6'6"	32-31	27.0	11.8	3.2	1.3	0.8	55.9%	37.7%	4.7	71.6%	24.8%
2	Jaylen Jones	G	Jr	6'0"	31-29	26.9	9.7	3.5	2.6	2.1	49.4%	33.3%	2.7	66.7%	26.1%
34	Evan Sterck	G	Fr	6'1"	32-23	24.7	6.4	2.0	3.1	1.5	47.6%	30.6%	3.1	78.8%	19.6%
11	Chris Lockett Jr.	G	So	6'4"	32-11	24.5	9.3	3.1	1.7	0.8	45.1%	30.6%	3.4	84.6%	24.9%
31	Jason Thirdkill Jr.	F	Sr	6'7"	32-24	22.6	8.0	5.4	0.5	0.8	56.3%	30.4%	1.8	76.1%	19.9%
33	Donovan Rivers	F	Jr	6'9"	32-28	20.0	8.6	4.6	0.6	1.6	54.9%	0.0%	0.1	64.4%	27.7%
1	Chris Arias	G	So	6'6"	30-4	17.9	7.3	2.3	0.7	0.7	52.7%	36.1%	4.0	84.4%	24.5%
22	Charles Caporaso	C	So	7'0"	26-4	10.7	4.1	2.3	0.3	0.4	57.1%	0.0%	0.0	75.0%	21.1%
14	Allen Udemadu	F	Sr	6'10"	24-0	11.4	3.6	2.5	0.2	1.0	60.0%	—	0.0	75.0%	20.8%
23	Enrico Borio	F	So	6'8"	21-5	12.1	3.0	1.8	0.5	0.7	46.6%	27.7%	2.2	53.8%	18.1%
0	Jaylen Jordon	F	Sr	6'8"	22-1	11.5	3.5	2.7	0.3	1.0	61.1%	—	0.0	71.4%	19.2%
9	Michael Harper Jr.	G	Fr	6'3"	15-0	6.9	2.7	0.9	0.5	0.2	41.5%	23.1%	0.9	20.0%	29.6%
10	Simon Wheeler	G	Sr	5'10"	8-0	7.4	1.4	0.6	1.6	1.1	50.0%	20.0%	0.6	0.0%	19.3%
4	Anakin Brown	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	9.7	1.7	2.0	1.0	0.3	16.7%	16.7%	2.0	66.7%	18.9%
6	Lamont Jackson	G	So	6'0"	4-0	4.0	2.3	0.5	0.3	0.3	41.7%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	27.8%
12	Roman Loux	G	Fr	6'0"	4-0	3.3	1.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	75.0%	0.0%	0.3	0.0%	21.2%
5	Tito Deng	F	Jr	6'11"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Florida2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Thomas Haugh	F	Sr	6'9"	34-34	33.3	17.1	6.1	2.1	1.5	53.3%	32.6%	5.2	77.4%	26.9%
1	Denzel Aberdeenat Kentucky	G	Sr	6'5"	36-35	30.6	13.5	2.5	3.4	1.3	51.6%	36.3%	4.8	79.8%	25.1%
0	Boogie Fland	G	Jr	6'3"	35-35	30.0	11.6	2.5	3.5	1.6	49.2%	24.0%	3.6	72.6%	23.3%
21	Alex Condon	F	Sr	6'11"	34-34	30.5	15.1	7.5	3.6	2.4	56.9%	17.0%	1.6	64.9%	27.8%
9	Rueben Chinyelu	C	Sr	6'10"	35-35	24.5	10.9	11.2	0.7	1.5	58.4%	0.0%	0.1	69.5%	23.8%
7	Urban Klavzar	G	Sr	6'1"	35-0	20.7	9.6	1.5	1.3	0.8	59.6%	40.6%	5.0	90.3%	22.4%
20	Isaiah Brown	G	Jr	6'4"	32-0	13.3	5.7	2.6	0.6	0.5	54.0%	34.6%	1.6	73.3%	22.9%
11	CJ Ingram	G	So	6'6"	20-0	5.7	2.3	0.9	0.5	0.4	57.1%	50.0%	0.8	50.0%	23.7%
4	Alex Lloyd	G	So	6'3"	17-0	4.8	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.4	38.5%	21.1%	1.1	20.0%	23.2%
8	Alex Kovatchev	G	Sr	6'5"	15-0	3.4	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.1	33.3%	22.2%	0.6	—	14.5%
12	Viktor Mikic	C	Jr	6'11"	15-0	3.3	1.5	0.9	0.4	0.4	32.6%	25.0%	0.3	53.8%	39.7%
3	AJ Brown	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
25	Arturas Butajevas	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
19	Domen Petrovic	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Jones Lay	C	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Denzel Aberdeen (from Kentucky)

Jacksonville2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Jacksonville's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Hayden Wood	G	Fr	6'6"	32-31	27.0	11.8	3.2	1.3	0.8	55.9%	37.7%	4.7	71.6%	24.8%
2	Jaylen Jones	G	Jr	6'0"	31-29	26.9	9.7	3.5	2.6	2.1	49.4%	33.3%	2.7	66.7%	26.1%
34	Evan Sterck	G	Fr	6'1"	32-23	24.7	6.4	2.0	3.1	1.5	47.6%	30.6%	3.1	78.8%	19.6%
11	Chris Lockett Jr.	G	So	6'4"	32-11	24.5	9.3	3.1	1.7	0.8	45.1%	30.6%	3.4	84.6%	24.9%
31	Jason Thirdkill Jr.	F	Sr	6'7"	32-24	22.6	8.0	5.4	0.5	0.8	56.3%	30.4%	1.8	76.1%	19.9%
33	Donovan Rivers	F	Jr	6'9"	32-28	20.0	8.6	4.6	0.6	1.6	54.9%	0.0%	0.1	64.4%	27.7%
1	Chris Arias	G	So	6'6"	30-4	17.9	7.3	2.3	0.7	0.7	52.7%	36.1%	4.0	84.4%	24.5%
22	Charles Caporaso	C	So	7'0"	26-4	10.7	4.1	2.3	0.3	0.4	57.1%	0.0%	0.0	75.0%	21.1%
14	Allen Udemadu	F	Sr	6'10"	24-0	11.4	3.6	2.5	0.2	1.0	60.0%	—	0.0	75.0%	20.8%
23	Enrico Borio	F	So	6'8"	21-5	12.1	3.0	1.8	0.5	0.7	46.6%	27.7%	2.2	53.8%	18.1%
0	Jaylen Jordon	F	Sr	6'8"	22-1	11.5	3.5	2.7	0.3	1.0	61.1%	—	0.0	71.4%	19.2%
9	Michael Harper Jr.	G	Fr	6'3"	15-0	6.9	2.7	0.9	0.5	0.2	41.5%	23.1%	0.9	20.0%	29.6%
10	Simon Wheeler	G	Sr	5'10"	8-0	7.4	1.4	0.6	1.6	1.1	50.0%	20.0%	0.6	0.0%	19.3%
4	Anakin Brown	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	9.7	1.7	2.0	1.0	0.3	16.7%	16.7%	2.0	66.7%	18.9%
6	Lamont Jackson	G	So	6'0"	4-0	4.0	2.3	0.5	0.3	0.3	41.7%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	27.8%
12	Roman Loux	G	Fr	6'0"	4-0	3.3	1.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	75.0%	0.0%	0.3	0.0%	21.2%
5	Tito Deng	F	Jr	6'11"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Jacksonville

Against the spread

Season

12-17-1

Home

4-6

Road

7-9-1

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −1.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-18

Home

4-6

Road

7-10

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +5.0

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	BellarmineAdjEM #281	N	L 79–82	+2.0	L−1.0	146.5	O161	123.8	128.6	63.8
Feb 28	North FloridaAdjEM #338	A	W 85–61	−1.5	W+22.5	150.0	U146	123.1	88.3	69.1
Feb 26	StetsonAdjEM #322	H	W 89–85	−7.0	L−3.0	140.0	O174	132.3	126.3	67.3
Feb 21	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	H	L 61–65	+5.5	W+1.5	142.5	U126	101.0	107.6	60.4
Feb 18	FGCUAdjEM #246	A	L 84–86	+6.5	W+4.5	136.0	O170	127.6	130.6	65.8
Feb 14	North FloridaAdjEM #338	H	W 63–56	−7.5	L−0.5	153.0	U119	108.2	96.1	58.3
Feb 11	StetsonAdjEM #322	A	L 62–67	−1.5	L−6.5	138.5	U129	99.0	107.0	62.6
Feb 7	West GeorgiaAdjEM #304	A	L 73–87	−1.0	L−15.0	138.0	O160	108.1	128.8	67.5
Feb 5	QueensAdjEM #191	A	L 84–93	+8.5	L−0.5	147.5	O177	119.0	131.8	70.6
Jan 31	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	L 49–68	−2.0	L−21.0	137.5	U117	74.2	103.0	66.0

Florida

Against the spread

Season

19-16

Home

7-8

Road

9-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +2.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 10 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 7 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-20-1

Home

6-9

Road

3-7

Last 10

5-4-1

avg vs total +3.0

Over in 5 of 10 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 4 of 7 with a line of 10+, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#9IowaAdjEM #22	N	L 72–73	−10.0	L−11.0	145.0	P145	117.8	119.4	61.1
Mar 20	#16Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	N	W 114–55	−35.0	W+24.0	154.0	O169	164.5	79.4	69.3
Mar 14	#22VanderbiltAdjEM #12	N	L 74–91	−7.0	L−24.0	160.0	O165	115.8	142.4	63.9
Mar 13	KentuckyAdjEM #27	N	W 71–63	−10.0	L−2.0	160.5	U134	97.1	86.2	73.1
Mar 7	KentuckyAdjEM #27	A	W 84–77	−5.5	W+1.5	162.0	U161	117.3	107.6	71.6
Mar 3	Mississippi StAdjEM #144	H	W 108–74	−21.0	W+13.0	160.5	O182	143.9	98.6	75.1
Feb 28	#20ArkansasAdjEM #19	H	W 111–77	−10.5	W+23.5	170.0	O188	137.4	95.3	80.8
Feb 25	TexasAdjEM #38	A	W 84–71	−7.0	W+6.0	158.5	U155	130.1	110.0	64.5
Feb 21	Ole MissAdjEM #82	A	W 94–75	−13.5	W+5.5	150.5	O169	122.2	97.5	76.9
Feb 17	South CarolinaAdjEM #123	H	W 76–62	−23.0	L−9.0	155.0	U138	113.4	92.5	67.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

JacksonvilleFlorida

Efficiency

104.9

119.2

111.9

97.9

65.8

70.2

—

Shooting

50.0%

54.1%

51.5%

58.5%

31.7%

31.2%

72.3%

71.2%

32.8%

39.0%

Ball control & glass

17.2%

16.3%

15.0%

15.3%

31.7%

43.3%

29.1%

24.8%

10.2%

9.0%

7.5%

7.0%

Style

37.4%

37.0%

44.0%

50.2%

11.1%

18.2%

44.7%

55.0%

38.8%

27.5%

Roster

2.36

3.71

6'5.2"

6'6.5"

—

78.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Jacksonville

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Jacksonville's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Florida

Returning minutes: 78.8%Returning production: 79.0%

Lost

Xaivian Lee 27.4 mpg, 11.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Micah Handlogten 14.4 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Olivier Rioux 0.5 mpg, 0.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Cooper Josefsberg 0.1 mpg, 0.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Denzel Aberdeen from Kentucky · 30.6 mpg, 13.5 ppg last season
Jones Lay no D1 minutes last season
Arturas Butajevas no D1 minutes last season
AJ Brown no D1 minutes last season
Domen Petrovic no D1 minutes last season

Returns 79% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.