CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 141.3 against a projected 141.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Duke.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Coastal is the faster team (68.3, #189 of 365) and Duke the slower (66.8, #250). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.7%#324 | 55.4%#75 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.3%#215 | 41.9%#229 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.6%#245 | 34.4%#61 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.5%#196 | 30.6%#27 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.4%#29 | 48.8%#3 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.7%#108 | 45.2%#302 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 43.1%#34 | 38.9%#198 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#133 | 32.8%#105 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersDuke has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.3 (#1 of 365) to Coastal’s −2.7 (#291).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rasheed Jones | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 36.2 | 14.8 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 49.1% | 36.7% | 6.1 | 80.7% | 24.8% | |
| 0 | AJ Dancler | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 33.2 | 15.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 49.6% | 39.3% | 6.3 | 75.7% | 28.5% | |
| 5 | Joshua Beadle | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 32.2 | 17.8 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 46.2% | 26.3% | 3.7 | 79.7% | 35.8% | |
| 21 | Reggie Hill | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-30 | 25.2 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 45.3% | 35.1% | 3.6 | 72.1% | 19.2% | |
| 4 | Nadjrick Peat | F | Sr | 6'10" | 32-32 | 23.1 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 68.6% | — | 0.0 | 63.5% | 10.6% | |
| 1 | Tristan Thompson | G | Fr | 6'5" | 32-0 | 19.5 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 43.2% | 16.1% | 1.0 | 65.1% | 14.9% | |
| 3 | DaJohn Craig | G | So | 6'1" | 32-0 | 12.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 53.5% | 37.2% | 2.9 | 88.9% | 20.9% | |
| 15 | Derrick Green | F | So | 6'9" | 31-0 | 10.6 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 65.7% | — | 0.0 | 43.2% | 12.4% | |
| 14 | Jerry Ngopot | F | Sr | 6'10" | 24-2 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 41.4% | 28.1% | 1.3 | 0.0% | 19.2% | |
| 13 | Braeden MacVicar | F | So | 6'11" | 23-0 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 43.3% | 29.6% | 2.3 | 68.8% | 25.1% | |
| 11 | Jackson Keil | G | Sr | 6'2" | 6-0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 100.0% | 17.8% | |
| 30 | Charles Dunlap | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 8.1% | |
| 20 | Connor Martin | F | Jr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 17.7% | |
| 7 | Andre Mulibea | G | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Devin Brown | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | John Blackwellat Wisconsin | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 33.8 | 19.1 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 53.4% | 38.9% | 7.3 | 85.9% | 30.6% | |
| 7 | Dame Sarr | F | So | 6'8" | 38-30 | 23.5 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 50.7% | 32.3% | 3.5 | 53.2% | 18.8% | |
| 2 | Cayden Boozer | G | So | 6'4" | 38-11 | 22.8 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 54.8% | 30.3% | 1.7 | 81.3% | 20.6% | |
| 1 | Caleb Foster | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-30 | 24.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 53.3% | 39.8% | 3.0 | 58.2% | 21.0% | |
| 8 | Drew Scharnowskiat Belmont | F | Sr | 6'10" | 30-24 | 21.7 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 68.3% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 43.6% | 27.3% | |
| 26 | Jacob Theodosiouat Loyola MD | G | Sr | 6'4" | 27-18 | 23.4 | 13.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 51.7% | 29.6% | 3.6 | 67.2% | 35.2% | |
| 21 | Patrick Ngongba II | C | Jr | 6'11" | 32-28 | 21.9 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 62.8% | 25.8% | 1.0 | 66.4% | 24.8% | |
| 50 | Brock Davis | G | Sr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Sebastian Wilkins | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Bryson Howard | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Cameron Williams | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Deron Rippey Jr. | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje | C | Fr | 7'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Maxime Meyer | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 55 | Nick Arnold | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rasheed Jones | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 36.2 | 14.8 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 49.1% | 36.7% | 6.1 | 80.7% | 24.8% | |
| 0 | AJ Dancler | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 33.2 | 15.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 49.6% | 39.3% | 6.3 | 75.7% | 28.5% | |
| 5 | Joshua Beadle | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 32.2 | 17.8 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 46.2% | 26.3% | 3.7 | 79.7% | 35.8% | |
| 21 | Reggie Hill | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-30 | 25.2 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 45.3% | 35.1% | 3.6 | 72.1% | 19.2% | |
| 4 | Nadjrick Peat | F | Sr | 6'10" | 32-32 | 23.1 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 68.6% | — | 0.0 | 63.5% | 10.6% | |
| 1 | Tristan Thompson | G | Fr | 6'5" | 32-0 | 19.5 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 43.2% | 16.1% | 1.0 | 65.1% | 14.9% | |
| 3 | DaJohn Craig | G | So | 6'1" | 32-0 | 12.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 53.5% | 37.2% | 2.9 | 88.9% | 20.9% | |
| 15 | Derrick Green | F | So | 6'9" | 31-0 | 10.6 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 65.7% | — | 0.0 | 43.2% | 12.4% | |
| 14 | Jerry Ngopot | F | Sr | 6'10" | 24-2 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 41.4% | 28.1% | 1.3 | 0.0% | 19.2% | |
| 13 | Braeden MacVicar | F | So | 6'11" | 23-0 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 43.3% | 29.6% | 2.3 | 68.8% | 25.1% | |
| 11 | Jackson Keil | G | Sr | 6'2" | 6-0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 100.0% | 17.8% | |
| 30 | Charles Dunlap | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 8.1% | |
| 20 | Connor Martin | F | Jr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 17.7% | |
| 7 | Andre Mulibea | G | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Devin Brown | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | GA Southern | N | L 72–96 | −1.0 | L−25.0 | 150.5 | O168 | 105.7 | 140.9 | 68.1 |
| Feb 27 | James Madison | A | W 69–68 | +6.0 | W+7.0 | 142.0 | U137 | 108.6 | 107.0 | 63.5 |
| Feb 24 | Georgia St | A | W 76–71 | −1.0 | W+4.0 | 141.0 | O147 | 113.3 | 105.9 | 67.1 |
| Feb 21 | Marshall | H | W 79–75 | +2.5 | W+6.5 | 153.5 | O154 | 104.8 | 99.5 | 75.3 |
| Feb 18 | James Madison | H | L 65–67 | +1.0 | L−1.0 | 141.5 | U132 | 99.1 | 102.2 | 65.6 |
| Feb 12 | Louisiana | A | W 69–65 | −1.0 | W+3.0 | 132.0 | O134 | 98.7 | 93.0 | 69.9 |
| Feb 7 | UMass | H | W 94–91 3OT | +2.5 | W+5.5 | 148.5 | O185 | 112.2 | 108.6 | 83.8 |
| Feb 4 | Arkansas St | H | L 66–70 | +5.0 | W+1.0 | 151.5 | U136 | 94.3 | 100.0 | 70.0 |
| Feb 1 | UL Monroe | A | W 83–79 | −9.0 | L−5.0 | 145.0 | O162 | 124.4 | 118.4 | 66.7 |
| Jan 29 | South Alabama | A | L 48–53 | +3.5 | L−1.5 | 140.0 | U101 | 80.0 | 88.3 | 60.0 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29 | #2UConn | N | L 72–73 | −4.5 | L−5.5 | 135.5 | O145 | 114.7 | 116.3 | 62.8 |
| Mar 27 | #5St John's | N | W 80–75 | −6.5 | L−1.5 | 140.5 | O155 | 124.8 | 117.0 | 64.1 |
| Mar 21 | #9TCU | N | W 81–58 | −12.0 | W+11.0 | 140.5 | U139 | 116.8 | 83.6 | 69.3 |
| Mar 19 | #16Siena | N | W 71–65 | −27.5 | L−21.5 | 136.0 | P136 | 114.7 | 105.0 | 61.9 |
| Mar 14 | #10Virginia | N | W 74–70 | −6.5 | L−2.5 | 139.5 | O144 | 116.4 | 110.1 | 63.5 |
| Mar 13 | Clemson | N | W 73–61 | −10.5 | W+1.5 | 135.0 | U134 | 115.5 | 96.5 | 63.2 |
| Mar 12 | Florida St | N | W 80–79 | −17.0 | L−16.0 | 150.5 | O159 | 119.0 | 117.5 | 67.2 |
| Mar 7 | #17North Carolina | H | W 76–61 | −18.0 | L−3.0 | 147.0 | U137 | 116.9 | 93.8 | 65.0 |
| Mar 2 | NC State | A | W 93–64 | −9.0 | W+20.0 | 150.5 | O157 | 144.3 | 99.3 | 64.5 |
| Feb 28 | #11Virginia | H | W 77–51 | −10.0 | W+16.0 | 143.0 | U128 | 126.4 | 83.7 | 60.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputReturns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
- Cameron Boozer 33.5 mpg, 22.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaiah Evans 28.3 mpg, 15.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Maliq Brown 20.2 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nikolas Khamenia 19.7 mpg, 5.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Darren Harris 9.1 mpg, 3.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cameron Sheffield 1.2 mpg, 0.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- John Blackwell from Wisconsin · 32.8 mpg, 18.6 ppg last season
- Drew Scharnowski from Belmont · 20.3 mpg, 10.1 ppg last season
- Jacob Theodosiou from Loyola MD · 19.7 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Sebastian Wilkins no D1 minutes last season
- Cameron Williams no D1 minutes last season
- Nick Arnold no D1 minutes last season
Returns 43% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.