CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
Coastal
Efficiency #241
2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf
@
Duke
Efficiency #2
2025-26: 35-3 · 20-1 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · TBD
59.1
win 2%
Projected
82.3
win 98%
No line posted yet.
Model: DUKE −23.2 · total 141.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Duke 67.2, Coastal 68.1 → 67.0 possessions
−2.8
Duke offense vs Coastal defense
+7.6
Coastal offense vs Duke defense
−11.7
Projected total
141.4
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Duke offense vs Coastal defense
+7.6
Coastal offense vs Duke defense
+11.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Duke by 23.2
23.2
Coastal side ◂▸ Duke side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 141.3 against a projected 141.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Duke.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Coastal is the faster team (68.3, #189 of 365) and Duke the slower (66.8, #250). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
141.4
model
Projected team totals
59.1 / 82.3
Coastal / Duke
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.1#200
Coastal
67.2#274
Duke

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageCoastal
Where Coastal struggles: shooting
Coastal shoots an effective 47.9% (#314); Duke allows 46.2% (#13). Expect about 46.7%, 4.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageDuke
Where Duke scores: ball control
Duke turns it over on 15.9% of possessions (#135); Coastal forces turnovers on 12.3% of opponent possessions (#364). Expect about 13.4%, 3.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions.
GlassCoastal
Coastal gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.5% is worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions against Coastal's offense.
ClashDuke
Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding
Duke (#4 in offensive rebounding) against Coastal (#52 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.6%. Historically Duke's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Duke's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Coastal at about 45.9% of its shots from three, Duke about 40.3%.
ClashCoastal
Style match: 3-point volume
Coastal takes 43.1% of its shots from three; Duke lets opponents take 45.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.9% — both habits push the same way.
Coastal has the ball
OffenseDuke allowsvs D1 avg
47.9% #314
46.2% #13
-6.5 pt/100
15.2% #82
17.3% #132
+0.7 pt/100
26.9% #296
25.2% #10
-3.0 pt/100
32.3% #254
22.8% #2
-1.1 pt/100
73.1% #165
—
+0.1 pt/100
Coastal net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.8 pts/100
Duke has the ball
OffenseCoastal allowsvs D1 avg
56.6% #13
46.8% #18
+1.2 pt/100
15.9% #135
12.3% #364
+4.1 pt/100
38.4% #4
27.6% #52
+2.6 pt/100
38.2% #97
34.9% #174
+0.2 pt/100
72.9% #175
—
+0.0 pt/100
Duke net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Coastaloffense vsDukedefense
Share of shots by zone
Coastal shoots
Duke allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.7%#32455.4%#7558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.3%#21541.9%#22939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.6%#24534.4%#6138.0%
Three33.5%#19630.6%#2733.7%
Dukeoffense vsCoastaldefense
Share of shots by zone
Duke shoots
Coastal allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.4%#2948.8%#358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.7%#10845.2%#30239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.1%#3438.9%#19838.0%
Three34.7%#13332.8%#10533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Coastal
−2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#291 of 365
Off reb %
26.9%
#296
Def reb %
72.4%
#52
Turnover %
15.2%
#82
Forced TO %
12.3%
#364
FT rate
32.3%
#254
FT allowed
34.9%
#174
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers−3.0
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+0.1
Duke
+9.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#1 of 365
Off reb %
38.4%
#4
Def reb %
74.8%
#10
Turnover %
15.9%
#135
Forced TO %
17.3%
#132
FT rate
38.2%
#97
FT allowed
22.8%
#2
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.6
Defensive rebounding+1.7
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed+3.2

Duke has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.3 (#1 of 365) to Coastal’s −2.7 (#291).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Coastal2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Coastal's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Rasheed JonesGJr6'6"32-3236.214.84.62.91.549.1%36.7%6.180.7%24.8%
0AJ DanclerGJr6'2"32-3233.215.65.52.11.549.6%39.3%6.375.7%28.5%
5Joshua BeadleGSr6'3"32-3232.217.83.92.92.646.2%26.3%3.779.7%35.8%
21Reggie HillFSr6'7"31-3025.26.65.80.81.445.3%35.1%3.672.1%19.2%
4Nadjrick PeatFSr6'10"32-3223.14.35.70.11.168.6%—0.063.5%10.6%
1Tristan ThompsonGFr6'5"32-019.54.04.20.80.843.2%16.1%1.065.1%14.9%
3DaJohn CraigGSo6'1"32-012.64.51.50.40.553.5%37.2%2.988.9%20.9%
15Derrick GreenFSo6'9"31-010.62.12.90.20.465.7%—0.043.2%12.4%
14Jerry NgopotFSr6'10"24-28.52.22.30.10.241.4%28.1%1.30.0%19.2%
13Braeden MacVicarFSo6'11"23-07.52.72.10.10.343.3%29.6%2.368.8%25.1%
11Jackson KeilGSr6'2"6-03.70.70.30.50.525.0%0.0%0.5100.0%17.8%
30Charles DunlapGSr6'2"3-04.01.31.00.00.0100.0%—0.0—8.1%
20Connor MartinFJr6'4"3-03.70.00.70.00.00.0%0.0%1.3—17.7%
7Andre MulibeaGSr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
12Devin BrownFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
CoastalDuke
Efficiency
103.8
121.1
107.3
95.8
68.1
67.2
—
—
Shooting
47.9%
56.6%
46.1%
60.2%
33.5%
34.7%
73.1%
72.9%
32.3%
38.2%
Ball control & glass
15.2%
15.9%
12.3%
17.3%
26.9%
38.4%
27.6%
25.2%
7.9%
9.7%
7.6%
9.6%
Style
43.1%
43.5%
34.5%
45.5%
10.3%
12.2%
40.4%
58.8%
26.8%
32.2%
Roster
3.10
3.26
6'5.4"
6'6.5"
—
43.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Coastal
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Coastal's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Duke
Returning minutes: 43.2%Returning production: 36.9%
Lost
  • Cameron Boozer 33.5 mpg, 22.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Isaiah Evans 28.3 mpg, 15.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Maliq Brown 20.2 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Nikolas Khamenia 19.7 mpg, 5.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Darren Harris 9.1 mpg, 3.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Cameron Sheffield 1.2 mpg, 0.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • John Blackwell from Wisconsin · 32.8 mpg, 18.6 ppg last season
  • Drew Scharnowski from Belmont · 20.3 mpg, 10.1 ppg last season
  • Jacob Theodosiou from Loyola MD · 19.7 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
  • Sebastian Wilkins no D1 minutes last season
  • Cameron Williams no D1 minutes last season
  • Nick Arnold no D1 minutes last season

Returns 43% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.