CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceTudor Fieldhouse, Houston, TX
East Texas A&M
Efficiency #311
2025-26: 11-21 · 6-16 conf
@
Rice
Efficiency #255
2025-26: 13-18 · 7-11 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · 8:00 PM ET
69.9
win 30%
Projected
76.0
win 70%
No line posted yet.
Model: RICE −6.1 · total 145.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Rice 67.2, East Texas A&M 69.0 → 67.8 possessions
−1.0
Rice offense vs East Texas A&M defense
+0.4
East Texas A&M offense vs Rice defense
−1.8
Projected total
145.8
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Rice offense vs East Texas A&M defense
+0.4
East Texas A&M offense vs Rice defense
+1.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Rice by 6.1
6.1
East Texas A&M side ◂▸ Rice side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Rice.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, East Texas A&M is the faster team (68.5, #171 of 365) and Rice the slower (66.7, #254). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.8
model
Projected team totals
69.9 / 76.0
East Texas A&M / Rice
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.0#123
East Texas A&M
67.2#276
Rice

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageRice
Where Rice scores: the offensive glass
Rice rebounds 35.3% of its own misses (#38); East Texas A&M lets opponents grab 32.8% of their own misses (#288). Expect about 35.0%, 4.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (East Texas A&M's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect East Texas A&M at about 42.3% of its shots from three, Rice about 42.3%.
AdvantageEast Texas A&M
Where East Texas A&M struggles: shooting
East Texas A&M shoots an effective 49.2% (#282); Rice allows 51.0% (#160). Expect about 49.9%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions.
ClashEast Texas A&M
Style clash: ball movement
East Texas A&M assists on 62.4% of its made baskets; Rice breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.4% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 55.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
ClashEast Texas A&M
Style clash: 3-point volume
East Texas A&M takes 46.2% of its shots from three; Rice runs teams off the line (35.5% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 42.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
East Texas A&M has the ball
OffenseRice allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #282
51.0% #160
-1.9 pt/100
19.2% #330
15.7% #237
-0.9 pt/100
25.7% #328
34.6% #329
-0.8 pt/100
32.0% #257
40.4% #306
+0.2 pt/100
67.9% #328
—
-0.4 pt/100
East Texas A&M net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.7 pts/100
Rice has the ball
OffenseEast Texas A&M allowsvs D1 avg
48.5% #303
52.9% #261
-1.1 pt/100
17.9% #265
17.0% #153
-0.9 pt/100
35.3% #38
32.8% #288
+2.8 pt/100
33.9% #214
34.5% #165
-0.1 pt/100
68.1% #326
—
-0.4 pt/100
Rice net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
East Texas A&Moffense vsRicedefense
Share of shots by zone
East Texas A&M shoots
Rice allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.9%#20062.5%#31058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.3%#19033.3%#3139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.8%#33236.2%#11538.0%
Three31.3%#31334.0%#18433.7%
Riceoffense vsEast Texas A&Mdefense
Share of shots by zone
Rice shoots
East Texas A&M allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.4%#29055.1%#6258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.7%#25240.4%#19739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.5%#25035.4%#8538.0%
Three34.3%#15337.3%#34733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
East Texas A&M
−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#332 of 365
Off reb %
25.7%
#328
Def reb %
67.2%
#288
Turnover %
19.2%
#330
Forced TO %
17.0%
#153
FT rate
32.0%
#257
FT allowed
34.5%
#165
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.5
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security−1.7
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.8
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Rice
−2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#292 of 365
Off reb %
35.3%
#38
Def reb %
65.4%
#329
Turnover %
17.9%
#265
Forced TO %
15.7%
#237
FT rate
33.9%
#214
FT allowed
40.4%
#306
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed−1.3

Rice has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.7 (#292 of 365) to East Texas A&M’s −4.2 (#332).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

East Texas A&M2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
25Gianni HuntGSr6'4"32-3230.910.84.24.92.446.5%31.3%4.076.4%23.9%
0Ronnie HarrisonFJr6'8"30-2829.514.76.11.82.352.3%29.6%3.665.5%31.1%
13Noah PagottoFJr6'8"32-2226.110.45.71.01.059.3%37.3%1.676.8%21.0%
8Damian GarciaGSr6'5"32-2426.010.53.32.21.649.8%33.3%5.057.1%26.7%
10Josh TaylorFSr6'8"32-1216.85.13.60.81.053.4%31.0%0.955.3%19.5%
5Tay MosherFSr6'7"27-1216.64.72.11.10.450.4%31.9%3.560.0%18.1%
2Evan PhelpsGJr6'0"30-814.61.50.71.21.029.0%20.5%1.326.7%13.9%
6London FieldsGJr6'5"24-1015.33.51.61.00.643.3%25.4%2.570.6%16.0%
7Michael FolarinFSr6'10"20-413.45.23.90.61.152.2%0.0%0.163.5%23.2%
30Alex McCrayGJr6'1"20-210.61.91.31.41.041.2%22.2%0.981.8%15.3%
20Parker WhisenhuntGSo6'3"4-03.80.80.50.00.533.3%—0.050.0%20.9%
3Mykol Sanchez-VegaGSr6'5"2-06.01.50.50.50.525.0%20.0%2.5—28.3%
4Chris AdlamGSo6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Kamren RobinsonGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
12Kollin TolbertGJr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
East Texas A&MRice
Efficiency
102.4
107.2
110.3
112.0
69.0
67.2
—
—
Shooting
49.2%
48.5%
51.2%
46.2%
31.3%
34.3%
67.9%
68.1%
32.0%
33.9%
Ball control & glass
19.2%
17.9%
17.0%
15.7%
25.7%
35.3%
32.8%
34.6%
10.7%
11.0%
10.7%
10.8%
Style
46.2%
44.1%
41.9%
34.5%
13.4%
13.1%
62.4%
46.2%
32.7%
32.9%
Roster
3.53
3.20
6'5.8"
6'5.1"
91.3%
96.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
East Texas A&M
Returning minutes: 91.3%Returning production: 91.8%
Lost
  • Vinny Sigona 17.5 mpg, 7.1 ppg · transferred to Canisius
Added
  • Kollin Tolbert no D1 minutes last season
  • Kamren Robinson no D1 minutes last season
  • Chris Adlam no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 91% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Rice
Returning minutes: 96.2%Returning production: 98.6%
Lost
  • Jordan Williams 4.4 mpg, 0.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Trey Patterson 3.4 mpg, 0.6 ppg · transferred to Saint Peter's
Added
  • Aaron Powell no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 96% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Fri, Nov 142025-26East Texas A&M 64 – 71 Rice

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.