CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceState Farm Center, Champaign, IL

Penn

Efficiency #162

2025-26: 18-12 · 11-5 conf

Illinois

Efficiency #4

2025-26: 28-9 · 15-6 conf

Thu, Nov 5 · TBD

66.5

win 6%

Projected

84.4

win 94%

No line posted yet.

Model: ILL −17.9 · total 150.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Illinois 67.0, Penn 69.3 → 68.0 possessions

−0.6

Illinois offense vs Penn defense

+8.6

Penn offense vs Illinois defense

−5.4

Projected total

150.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Illinois offense vs Penn defense

+8.6

Penn offense vs Illinois defense

+5.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Illinois by 17.9

17.9

Penn side ◂▸ Illinois side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.8 against a projected 150.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Illinois.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Penn is the faster team (68.7, #163 of 365) and Illinois the slower (65.7, #310). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.9

model

Projected team totals

66.5 / 84.4

Penn / Illinois

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.3#95

Penn

67.0#289

Illinois

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantagePenn

Where Penn scores: ball control

Penn turns it over on 15.3% of possessions (#89); Illinois forces turnovers on 11.6% of opponent possessions (#365). Expect about 12.7%, 4.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.1 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageIllinois

Where Illinois scores: the offensive glass

Illinois rebounds 39.2% of its own misses (#3); Penn lets opponents grab 31.3% of their own misses (#220). Expect about 37.0%, 6.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.0 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseIllinois

Illinois's shot-blocking

Illinois ranks #26 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.8% of Penn's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

TurnoversIllinois

Illinois protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.0% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for Illinois's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Penn, Illinois's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Penn at about 38.7% of its shots from three, Illinois about 47.8%.

ClashPenn

Strength vs strength: 3-point shooting

Penn (#13 in 3-point shooting) against Illinois (#38 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.5%. Historically Penn's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.25 vs 0.16).

Penn has the ball

OffenseIllinois allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #223

47.3% #26

-3.6 pt/100

15.3% #89

11.6% #365

+5.1 pt/100

30.0% #200

26.7% #28

-1.3 pt/100

33.9% #212

19.7% #1

-1.2 pt/100

69.4% #285

—

-0.3 pt/100

Penn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.3 pts/100

Illinois has the ball

OffensePenn allowsvs D1 avg

54.7% #46

52.1% #218

+3.4 pt/100

13.1% #10

17.3% #131

+2.1 pt/100

39.2% #3

31.3% #220

+4.0 pt/100

33.2% #232

27.5% #28

-0.7 pt/100

78.0% #17

—

+0.5 pt/100

Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Pennoffense vsIllinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Penn shoots

36.7

5.6

22.4

35.4

Illinois allows

27.0

7.0

21.9

44.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.4%#331	59.4%#208	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.2%#286	37.7%#129	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.7%#196	35.8%#101	38.0%
Three	38.3%#13	31.3%#38	33.7%

Illinoisoffense vsPenndefense

Share of shots by zone

Illinois shoots

32.9

6.9

10.2

49.9

Penn allows

40.5

6.0

14.1

39.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.5%#11	61.3%#278	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.2%#141	46.0%#320	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.1%#181	38.0%#160	38.0%
Three	34.5%#142	32.2%#73	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Penn

+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#63 of 365

Off reb %

30.0%

#200

Def reb %

68.7%

#220

Turnover %

15.3%

#89

Forced TO %

17.3%

#131

FT rate

33.9%

#212

FT allowed

27.5%

#28

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers+0.4

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Illinois

+6.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#9 of 365

Off reb %

39.2%

Def reb %

73.3%

#28

Turnover %

13.1%

#10

Forced TO %

11.6%

#365

FT rate

33.2%

#232

FT allowed

19.7%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.8

Defensive rebounding+1.3

Ball security+2.5

Forcing turnovers−3.5

Foul shots drawn−0.5

Foul shots allowed+4.0

Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.7 (#9 of 365) to Penn’s +2.7 (#63).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Penn2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	TJ Power	F	Jr	6'9"	30-30	35.1	16.4	7.6	2.4	2.1	55.3%	43.2%	6.1	64.9%	27.5%
7	Michael Zanoni	F	Sr	6'5"	30-30	28.8	11.8	2.0	0.7	0.5	53.1%	38.7%	4.7	92.0%	22.1%
0	AJ Levine	G	So	6'0"	30-30	24.3	8.2	3.2	4.0	2.0	46.2%	27.5%	2.3	63.4%	24.7%
25	Augustus Gerhart	F	Jr	6'9"	30-30	19.8	5.5	4.7	1.0	0.9	62.4%	0.0%	0.0	63.6%	15.3%
30	Lucas Lueth	F	So	6'7"	28-1	16.7	3.3	3.0	0.6	0.5	43.5%	22.6%	1.1	37.9%	15.0%
5	Cam Thrower	G	Sr	6'3"	27-6	17.0	6.0	1.6	1.3	1.1	47.8%	41.9%	2.3	86.8%	23.1%
13	Dalton Scantlebury	C	Fr	6'9"	29-0	15.5	5.9	3.9	0.6	0.8	51.2%	—	0.0	62.3%	23.2%
4	Jay Jones	G	Fr	6'4"	27-0	13.7	3.9	2.3	1.2	0.7	48.0%	38.9%	0.7	58.9%	18.8%
35	Niklas Polonowski	F	Jr	6'6"	23-0	6.0	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.1	40.3%	31.8%	1.0	63.6%	15.6%
2	Dylan Williams	G	Sr	5'11"	7-0	8.7	2.1	1.0	1.6	1.0	40.6%	25.0%	0.6	33.3%	24.9%
11	Alex Massung	G	So	6'4"	10-0	5.5	1.7	0.6	0.7	0.5	35.7%	—	0.0	70.0%	24.2%
33	Michelangelo Oberti	C	So	6'10"	12-0	4.4	1.8	1.2	0.1	0.3	69.2%	—	0.0	80.0%	20.8%
3	Johnnie Walter	F	Sr	6'10"	5-0	5.2	1.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.6	—	11.2%
21	Payton Kamin	F	Fr	6'7"	4-0	3.5	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	40.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	18.4%
40	William Kruse	F	Fr	6'11"	3-0	4.0	1.7	2.0	0.0	0.0	125.0%	100.0%	0.3	—	8.7%
15	Bradyn Foster	F	So	6'8"	1-0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
34	Chris Ubochi	C	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Ryan Altman	F	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Illinois2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	David Mirkovic	F	Fr	6'9"	37-36	29.5	13.3	8.0	2.6	1.9	56.2%	37.5%	4.1	75.7%	27.3%
2	Andrej Stojakovic	G	Jr	6'7"	34-21	26.3	13.5	4.5	1.0	1.3	53.0%	24.4%	2.4	80.5%	30.0%
13	Tomislav Ivisic	C	Jr	7'1"	34-33	25.4	10.4	5.6	1.6	1.4	57.6%	31.3%	4.7	77.8%	24.5%
15	Jake Davis	F	Jr	6'6"	37-22	19.6	5.4	2.2	0.7	0.2	61.2%	40.6%	3.6	75.0%	13.9%
44	Zvonimir Ivisic	C	Jr	7'2"	37-4	17.2	6.4	4.5	0.3	0.5	59.1%	28.0%	2.7	69.2%	20.2%
77	Mihailo Petrovic	G	Fr	6'3"	18-0	6.1	1.7	0.8	1.2	0.7	36.1%	20.0%	0.6	83.3%	27.7%
1	Brandon Lee	G	Fr	6'4"	16-0	4.8	1.9	0.4	0.2	0.3	44.4%	0.0%	0.1	93.3%	23.7%
31	Jason Jakstys	F	Fr	6'10"	9-0	5.2	1.3	1.9	0.2	0.0	80.0%	—	0.0	66.7%	9.3%
8	Blake Fagbemi	G	Fr	6'0"	11-0	3.5	0.2	1.0	0.4	0.2	20.0%	—	0.0	—	10.0%
5	AJ Redd	G	Sr	6'3"	11-0	2.4	1.4	0.5	0.0	0.1	50.0%	33.3%	0.3	66.7%	32.6%
20	Ty Rodgers	G	Jr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Penn2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	TJ Power	F	Jr	6'9"	30-30	35.1	16.4	7.6	2.4	2.1	55.3%	43.2%	6.1	64.9%	27.5%
7	Michael Zanoni	F	Sr	6'5"	30-30	28.8	11.8	2.0	0.7	0.5	53.1%	38.7%	4.7	92.0%	22.1%
0	AJ Levine	G	So	6'0"	30-30	24.3	8.2	3.2	4.0	2.0	46.2%	27.5%	2.3	63.4%	24.7%
25	Augustus Gerhart	F	Jr	6'9"	30-30	19.8	5.5	4.7	1.0	0.9	62.4%	0.0%	0.0	63.6%	15.3%
30	Lucas Lueth	F	So	6'7"	28-1	16.7	3.3	3.0	0.6	0.5	43.5%	22.6%	1.1	37.9%	15.0%
5	Cam Thrower	G	Sr	6'3"	27-6	17.0	6.0	1.6	1.3	1.1	47.8%	41.9%	2.3	86.8%	23.1%
13	Dalton Scantlebury	C	Fr	6'9"	29-0	15.5	5.9	3.9	0.6	0.8	51.2%	—	0.0	62.3%	23.2%
4	Jay Jones	G	Fr	6'4"	27-0	13.7	3.9	2.3	1.2	0.7	48.0%	38.9%	0.7	58.9%	18.8%
35	Niklas Polonowski	F	Jr	6'6"	23-0	6.0	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.1	40.3%	31.8%	1.0	63.6%	15.6%
2	Dylan Williams	G	Sr	5'11"	7-0	8.7	2.1	1.0	1.6	1.0	40.6%	25.0%	0.6	33.3%	24.9%
11	Alex Massung	G	So	6'4"	10-0	5.5	1.7	0.6	0.7	0.5	35.7%	—	0.0	70.0%	24.2%
33	Michelangelo Oberti	C	So	6'10"	12-0	4.4	1.8	1.2	0.1	0.3	69.2%	—	0.0	80.0%	20.8%
3	Johnnie Walter	F	Sr	6'10"	5-0	5.2	1.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.6	—	11.2%
21	Payton Kamin	F	Fr	6'7"	4-0	3.5	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	40.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	18.4%
40	William Kruse	F	Fr	6'11"	3-0	4.0	1.7	2.0	0.0	0.0	125.0%	100.0%	0.3	—	8.7%
15	Bradyn Foster	F	So	6'8"	1-0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
34	Chris Ubochi	C	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Ryan Altman	F	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Penn

Against the spread

Season

20-9

Home

8-5

Road

10-3

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +5.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

8-21

Home

1-12

Road

5-8

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −3.2

Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	L 70–105	+25.5	L−9.5	151.0	O175	103.0	154.5	68.0
Mar 15	YaleAdjEM #57	N	W 88–84 OT	+9.5	W+13.5	144.0	O172	121.7	116.1	72.3
Mar 14	HarvardAdjEM #133	N	W 62–60 OT	+3.5	W+5.5	139.0	U122	88.7	85.9	69.9
Mar 6	BrownAdjEM #275	A	W 82–61	+1.0	W+22.0	147.0	U143	114.2	84.9	71.8
Feb 28	HarvardAdjEM #133	H	W 64–61	+1.0	W+4.0	139.5	U125	89.5	85.3	71.5
Feb 27	DartmouthAdjEM #254	H	W 80–71	−6.5	W+2.5	153.5	U151	115.6	102.6	69.2
Feb 21	YaleAdjEM #57	A	L 70–74	+8.5	W+4.5	149.5	U144	105.1	111.1	66.6
Feb 14	CornellAdjEM #135	H	W 82–76	+3.0	W+9.0	170.0	U158	107.6	99.7	76.2
Feb 13	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	H	W 76–67	−2.0	W+7.0	148.0	U143	108.0	95.2	70.4
Feb 7	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 61–60	−3.5	L−2.5	145.0	U121	104.5	102.8	58.4

Illinois

Against the spread

Season

19-15-2

Home

7-7-2

Road

6-4

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −0.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-22

Home

5-11

Road

7-3

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +2.1

Under 4 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 4	#2UConnAdjEM #10	N	L 62–71	−1.5	L−10.5	139.0	U133	97.6	111.8	63.5
Mar 28	#9IowaAdjEM #22	N	W 71–59	−7.0	W+5.0	138.5	U130	129.5	107.6	54.8
Mar 26	#2HoustonAdjEM #6	N	W 65–55	+2.5	W+12.5	139.5	U120	111.2	94.1	58.5
Mar 21	#11VCUAdjEM #39	N	W 76–55	−12.0	W+9.0	150.5	U131	115.2	83.4	66.0
Mar 19	#14PennAdjEM #162	N	W 105–70	−25.5	W+9.5	151.0	O175	154.5	103.0	68.0
Mar 13	#23WisconsinAdjEM #28	N	L 88–91 OT	−8.0	L−11.0	157.0	O179	117.0	121.0	75.2
Mar 8	MarylandAdjEM #198	A	W 78–72	−14.0	L−8.0	145.0	O150	127.4	117.6	61.2
Mar 3	OregonAdjEM #143	H	W 80–54	−17.5	W+8.5	147.0	U134	116.9	78.9	68.5
Feb 27	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	H	L 70–84	+2.0	L−12.0	159.5	U154	105.4	126.5	66.4
Feb 21	UCLAAdjEM #37	A	L 94–95 OT	−6.0	L−7.0	147.0	O189	129.0	130.4	72.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

PennIllinois

Efficiency

107.9

122.5

107.2

101.2

69.3

67.0

—

Shooting

50.4%

54.7%

46.5%

57.5%

38.3%

34.5%

69.4%

78.0%

33.9%

33.2%

Ball control & glass

15.3%

13.1%

17.3%

11.6%

30.0%

39.2%

31.3%

26.7%

8.5%

8.2%

9.3%

8.2%

Style

35.4%

49.7%

39.7%

11.0%

6.8%

52.3%

50.0%

31.8%

29.2%

Roster

2.70

2.40

6'5.9"

6'9.3"

88.4%

60.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Penn

Returning minutes: 88.4%Returning production: 86.3%

Lost

Ethan Roberts 23.4 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame

Added

Ryan Altman no D1 minutes last season
Chris Ubochi no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Illinois

Returning minutes: 60.1%Returning production: 60.0%

Lost

Keaton Wagler 34.0 mpg, 17.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kylan Boswell 24.4 mpg, 9.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ben Humrichous 22.5 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Ty Rodgers no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 60% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Thu, Mar 19	2025-26	Penn 70 – 105 Illinois(N)

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.