CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceGentile Arena, Chicago, IL
West Georgia
Efficiency #304
2025-26: 15-17 · 9-11 conf
@
Loyola Chicago
Efficiency #309
2025-26: 9-24 · 5-15 conf
Thu, Nov 5 · TBD
71.7
win 37%
Projected
75.4
win 63%
No line posted yet.
Model: LUC −3.7 · total 147.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Loyola Chicago 67.2, West Georgia 69.4 → 68.4 possessions
+0.1
Loyola Chicago offense vs West Georgia defense
−0.7
West Georgia offense vs Loyola Chicago defense
−0.5
Projected total
147.1
Axis starts at 147 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Loyola Chicago offense vs West Georgia defense
−0.7
West Georgia offense vs Loyola Chicago defense
+0.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Loyola Chicago by 3.7
3.7
West Georgia side ◂▸ Loyola Chicago side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Loyola Chicago.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, West Georgia is the faster team (70.2, #89 of 365) and Loyola Chicago the slower (65.9, #299). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.1
model
Projected team totals
71.7 / 75.4
West Georgia / Loyola Chicago
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.4#86
West Georgia
67.2#271
Loyola Chicago

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageWest Georgia
Where West Georgia scores: ball control
West Georgia turns it over on 15.9% of possessions (#128); Loyola Chicago forces turnovers on 12.9% of opponent possessions (#357). Expect about 13.8%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.7 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Loyola Chicago's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect West Georgia at about 37.4% of its shots from three, Loyola Chicago about 44.7%.
ClashWest Georgia
Style clash: 3-point volume
West Georgia rarely shoots threes (33.0% of its shots); Loyola Chicago lets opponents take 44.3% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 37.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashWest Georgia
Style clash: paint scoring
West Georgia scores 46.3% of its points in the paint; Loyola Chicago protects the paint (36.6% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 41.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
ClashWest Georgia
Style clash: ball movement
West Georgia creates off the dribble (assists on 44.3% of its baskets); Loyola Chicago allows assists on 61.3% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
ClashWest Georgia
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
West Georgia (#2 in shot-blocking exposure) against Loyola Chicago (#59 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 9.4%. Historically Loyola Chicago's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
West Georgia has the ball
OffenseLoyola Chicago allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #261
52.0% #214
-0.8 pt/100
15.9% #128
12.9% #357
+3.7 pt/100
31.5% #142
29.7% #146
+0.3 pt/100
29.2% #329
33.6% #143
-0.5 pt/100
70.4% #259
—
-0.2 pt/100
West Georgia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.4 pts/100
Loyola Chicago has the ball
OffenseWest Georgia allowsvs D1 avg
49.8% #246
53.4% #281
+0.4 pt/100
19.8% #343
14.7% #310
-0.5 pt/100
30.5% #179
29.0% #102
-0.4 pt/100
34.8% #188
36.9% #234
+0.1 pt/100
67.3% #340
—
-0.5 pt/100
Loyola Chicago net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
West Georgiaoffense vsLoyola Chicagodefense
Share of shots by zone
West Georgia shoots
Loyola Chicago allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.3%#26154.2%#4358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)50.9%#942.5%#23939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.3%#21239.3%#21238.0%
Three33.1%#22236.8%#34233.7%
Loyola Chicagooffense vsWest Georgiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Loyola Chicago shoots
West Georgia allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.0%#19960.8%#26258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.2%#28444.6%#28539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.6%#13039.6%#22838.0%
Three31.7%#29633.1%#12833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
West Georgia
−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#264 of 365
Off reb %
31.5%
#142
Def reb %
71.0%
#102
Turnover %
15.9%
#128
Forced TO %
14.7%
#310
FT rate
29.2%
#329
FT allowed
36.9%
#234
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.4
Loyola Chicago
−3.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#329 of 365
Off reb %
30.5%
#179
Def reb %
70.3%
#146
Turnover %
19.8%
#343
Forced TO %
12.9%
#357
FT rate
34.8%
#188
FT allowed
33.6%
#143
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security−2.0
Forcing turnovers−2.6
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed+0.4

West Georgia has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.8 (#264 of 365) to Loyola Chicago’s −3.9 (#329).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

West Georgia2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted West Georgia's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
4Shelton Williams-DrydenFSr6'6"32-3235.220.79.11.52.051.7%23.6%2.372.3%33.4%
11Kolten GriffinFSr6'6"32-3233.37.74.22.81.751.4%35.0%1.961.5%15.4%
10Josh SmithGJr6'3"31-627.116.22.12.11.447.0%34.8%5.773.7%36.3%
23Malcolm NoelGSr5'11"28-1823.78.11.93.42.148.0%31.1%3.775.0%23.3%
22Kenneth ChimeFFr6'9"32-2820.35.05.90.30.757.9%—0.043.8%14.5%
5JaVar DanielFJr6'10"31-419.27.45.30.70.654.5%50.0%0.670.0%21.2%
1Brady HardewigGSo6'2"31-2617.33.91.30.80.554.8%36.7%2.983.3%13.3%
6Matija ZuzicGSr6'6"23-416.04.02.40.70.838.6%30.2%2.785.7%20.1%
2Chas LewlessGFr6'2"10-1028.312.82.92.92.447.3%32.8%6.488.5%29.2%
3Xavier ShegogFFr6'6"31-08.71.51.80.30.742.9%50.0%0.350.0%15.3%
12Eric BaldassarreGFr6'4"11-04.42.20.50.00.080.0%53.3%1.4—17.0%
30Cameron MerrittGSo5'11"4-03.31.00.30.30.366.7%—0.0—17.1%
14Nate JonesGSr6'2"5-02.00.40.20.00.025.0%0.0%0.60.0%24.8%
20Max YoungGFr6'3"4-02.01.30.00.00.0125.0%100.0%0.3—13.5%
25Maddox FowlesFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9Micah SmithFSo6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
West GeorgiaLoyola Chicago
Efficiency
104.0
104.3
111.6
112.3
69.4
67.2
—
—
Shooting
49.6%
49.8%
49.6%
51.9%
33.1%
31.7%
70.4%
67.3%
29.2%
34.8%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
19.8%
14.7%
12.9%
31.5%
30.5%
29.0%
29.7%
9.5%
10.9%
5.6%
13.9%
Style
33.0%
47.7%
46.3%
41.0%
13.4%
10.2%
44.3%
60.8%
32.3%
30.4%
Roster
3.03
2.93
6'5"
6'5.4"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
West Georgia
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted West Georgia's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Loyola Chicago
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Loyola Chicago's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.