Toledo Rockets vs Michigan State Spartans basketball final score
Thu, Nov 5 · 8:00 PM ET · Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI
Non-conferencePeacockBreslin Center, East Lansing, MI
Toledo
0-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #121
@
6Michigan St
1-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #7
Final
6191
Final score
Projected 63.4 – 88.1
TOL win 2%MSU win 98%
MarketClose
Spread
MSU −26.0
open MSU −25.5
Total
155.0
open 151.5
Our line
MSU −24.8
as of Thu, Nov 5 · 7:52 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Michigan Strated 22.0 above average
+22.0
Toledorated 1.9 above average
−1.9
Home court
+4.7
Our line
MSU −24.8
◂ Toledo sideMichigan St side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Michigan St. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Toledo is the faster team (75.4, #68 of 365) and Michigan St the slower (72.4, #112). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.7
per team, 40 min
Market total
155.0
Market close · open 151.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.4#138
Toledo
70.1#240
Michigan St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
MSU −24.7
Four factors +26.0 · not in these stats −1.3
From the four factors
Michigan St has the ball+13.2
Toledo has the ball−12.8
Michigan St has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 46.7% #23 · TOL allows 34.0% #188+5.2
✓Shoots it welleFG% 65.3% #20 · TOL allows 43.6% #73+5.1
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.6% #112 · TOL forces 13.3% #245 · ~10 turnovers+3.6
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 41.9% #101 · TOL allows 32.9% #120 · FT 57.7% #239−0.7
Toledo has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 43.8% #211 · MSU allows 41.1% #44−8.7
✗Coughs it upTO% 21.2% #210 · MSU forces 22.1% #70 · ~16 turnovers−3.6
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 11.0% #284 · MSU allows 42.9% #196 · FT 75.0% #72−0.4
✗Few second chancesOR% 34.9% #88 · MSU allows 25.6% #75−0.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootToledooffense vs#6Michigan Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Toledo shoots
26.0
11.0
26.0
37.0
Michigan St allows
52.8
2.8
13.9
30.6
D-I average
38.2
7.6
13.0
41.1
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.9%#149 | 36.8%#12 | 58.7% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.5%#113 | 0.0%#1 | 36.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 47.4%#84 | 40.0%#167 | 35.6% |
| Three | 22.2%#240 | 28.6%#103 | 32.5% |
#6Michigan Stoffense vsToledodefense
Share of shots by zone
Michigan St shoots
38.6
6.8
9.1
45.5
Toledo allows
38.6
4.3
4.3
52.9
D-I average
38.2
7.6
13.0
41.1
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 70.6%#56 | 40.7%#29 | 58.7% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 66.7%#30 | 33.3%#107 | 36.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 25.0%#175 | 66.7%#254 | 35.6% |
| Three | 39.1%#69 | 29.7%#117 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineToledo
−11.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#239 of 365
Off reb %
34.9%
#88
Def reb %
66.0%
#188
Turnover %
21.2%
#210
Forced TO %
13.3%
#245
FT rate
11.0%
#284
FT allowed
32.9%
#120
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding−0.8
Ball security−1.9
Forcing turnovers−3.8
Foul shots drawn−6.8
Foul shots allowed+1.1
#6Michigan St
+10.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#57 of 365
Off reb %
46.7%
#23
Def reb %
74.4%
#75
Turnover %
16.6%
#112
Forced TO %
22.1%
#70
FT rate
41.9%
#101
FT allowed
42.9%
#196
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+5.0
Defensive rebounding+2.0
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers+2.5
Foul shots drawn+1.3
Foul shots allowed−1.5
Michigan St has more extra scoring chances per game: +10.6 (#57 of 365) to Toledo’s −11.3 (#239).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Toledo2026-27 numbers through Sat, Nov 7
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-3 | 33.0 | 16.3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 44.2% | 18.2% | 7.3 | 84.6% | 28.7% | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 5'10" | 3-3 | 29.3 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 83.3% | 18.3% | |
| 32 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 3-3 | 29.0 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 41.0% | 22.2% | 3.0 | 71.4% | 28.6% | |
| 9 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-1 | 25.7 | 14.7 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 51.3% | 28.6% | 2.3 | 57.1% | 31.7% | |
| 10 | F | So | 6'5" | 3-2 | 18.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 31.3% | 20.0% | 1.7 | 60.0% | 15.0% | |
| 11 | G | So | 6'4" | 3-1 | 17.3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 45.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 13.6% | |
| 23 | F | Jr | 6'5" | 3-0 | 15.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 34.6% | 20.0% | 1.7 | 25.0% | 23.3% | |
| 25 | C | Sr | 6'10" | 2-2 | 20.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 46.2% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 20.7% | |
| 7 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 10.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 11.6% | |
| 24 | F | Fr | 6'7" | 3-0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | 70.0% | 19.8% | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 1.0 | — | 36.3% | |
| 3 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 0 | F | So | 6'6" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 54.5% |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameToledo
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +2.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −25.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | Arkansas St | A | L 70–71 | +3.5 | W+2.5 | 166.0 | U141 | 92.9 | 94.2 | 75.4 |
| Mar 14 | Akron | N | L 76–79 | +8.0 | W+5.0 | 157.5 | U155 | 111.4 | 115.8 | 68.2 |
| Mar 13 | UMass | N | W 77–67 | −3.0 | W+7.0 | 158.0 | U144 | 109.5 | 95.3 | 70.3 |
| Mar 12 | Bowling Green | N | W 77–76 | −1.5 | L−0.5 | 152.0 | O153 | 113.1 | 111.6 | 68.1 |
| Mar 6 | Buffalo | H | W 99–78 | −5.5 | W+15.5 | 156.5 | O177 | 151.8 | 119.6 | 65.2 |
| Mar 3 | #19Miami OH | A | L 72–74 | +8.0 | W+6.0 | 162.5 | U146 | 104.7 | 107.6 | 68.8 |
| Feb 28 | Ohio | A | W 79–67 | +2.5 | W+14.5 | 159.0 | U146 | 119.4 | 101.2 | 66.2 |
| Feb 24 | N Illinois | H | W 79–69 | −12.5 | L−2.5 | 150.0 | U148 | 119.5 | 104.3 | 66.1 |
| Feb 21 | E Michigan | H | W 94–75 | −8.5 | W+10.5 | 147.0 | O169 | 131.9 | 105.2 | 71.3 |
| Feb 14 | Bowling Green | A | L 70–80 | +4.0 | L−6.0 | 150.0 | P150 | 106.7 | 122.0 | 65.6 |
#6Michigan St
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +7.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +1.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | Quinnipiac | H | W 96–59 | −30.0 | W+7.0 | 153.5 | O155 | 132.6 | 81.5 | 72.4 |
| Mar 27 | #2UConn | N | L 63–67 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 136.0 | U130 | 99.1 | 105.4 | 63.6 |
| Mar 21 | #6Louisville | N | W 77–69 | −5.0 | W+3.0 | 151.0 | U146 | 115.0 | 103.1 | 66.9 |
| Mar 19 | #14N Dakota St | N | W 92–67 | −16.0 | W+9.0 | 144.5 | O159 | 126.4 | 92.0 | 72.8 |
| Mar 13 | UCLA | N | L 84–88 | −5.0 | L−9.0 | 141.5 | O172 | 125.9 | 131.9 | 66.7 |
| Mar 8 | #3Michigan | A | L 80–90 | +10.5 | W+0.5 | 152.0 | O170 | 112.5 | 126.5 | 71.1 |
| Mar 5 | Rutgers | H | W 91–87 | −19.5 | L−15.5 | 142.0 | O178 | 126.1 | 120.6 | 72.1 |
| Mar 1 | Indiana | A | W 77–64 | −3.0 | W+10.0 | 144.0 | U141 | 128.1 | 106.5 | 60.1 |
| Feb 26 | #8Purdue | A | W 76–74 | +7.0 | W+9.0 | 143.0 | O150 | 121.7 | 118.5 | 62.4 |
| Feb 22 | Ohio State | H | W 66–60 | −10.0 | L−4.0 | 147.0 | U126 | 108.2 | 98.4 | 61.0 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeToledo#6Michigan St
Efficiency
108.1
115.9
104.9
95.2
71.4
70.1
1.6
-4.2
Shooting
43.8%
65.3%
50.0%
69.2%
22.2%
39.1%
75.0%
57.7%
11.0%
41.9%
Ball control & glass
21.2%
16.6%
13.3%
22.1%
34.9%
46.7%
34.0%
25.6%
15.9%
8.3%
8.7%
2.6%
Style
37.0%
37.1%
40.0%
52.1%
12.9%
37.5%
72.4%
61.1%
30.0%
42.0%
Roster
3.06
2.44
6'4.5"
6'6.6"
35.8%
57.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputToledo
Returning minutes: 36.0%Returning production: 34.0%
Lost
- Sonny Wilson 36.2 mpg, 17.0 ppg · transferred to South Florida
- Leroy Blyden Jr. 33.4 mpg, 16.4 ppg · transferred to Kansas
- Sean Craig 31.6 mpg, 11.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kyler Vanderjagt 22.1 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- London Praytor 2.1 mpg, 1.1 ppg · transferred to Montana St
- Tyler Ode 1.3 mpg, 0.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Angel Montas Jr. from UMass Lowell · 26.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg last season
- Sean Jones from Marquette · 5.3 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
- Marco Mattucci no D1 minutes last season
- Rich Barron no D1 minutes last season
- Jaylohn Allen no D1 minutes last season
- Rashaun Porter no D1 minutes last season
Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
#6Michigan St
Returning minutes: 60.4%Returning production: 58.6%
Lost
- Jaxon Kohler 27.7 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to BYU
- Carson Cooper 26.7 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Divine Ugochukwu 10.1 mpg, 3.2 ppg · transferred to LSU
- Trey Fort 9.7 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Denham Wojcik 4.8 mpg, 0.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nick Sanders 0.7 mpg, 0.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Anton Bonke from Charlotte · 25.6 mpg, 10.6 ppg last season
- Matthew Watkins no D1 minutes last season
- Jasiah Jervis no D1 minutes last season
- Julius Avent no D1 minutes last season
- Carlos Medlock Jr. no D1 minutes last season
- Kaleb Glenn no D1 minutes last season
Returns 60% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -26.5→-25.5-115 | 152.5→155.5o-105 u-115 | — | +2500 |
| FanDuel | -25.5-118 | 151.5→154.5o-115 u-105 | — | +4000 |
| BetMGM | -26.5-105 | 152.5→154.5o-115 u-105 | — | +3000 |
| BetRivers | -26.5-106 | 153.5→154.5o-107 u-117 | — | — |
| Caesars | -26.5→-26-110 | 152.5→154.5o-110 u-110 | — | +2500 |
| Fanatics | -25.5→-26-110 | 151.5→154.5o-110 u-110 | — | +3500 |
| BetOnline | -26-110 | 151→155o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -26.5→-26-110 | 152.5→154.5o-110 u-110 | — | +2800 |
| theScore Bet | -26.5→-25.5-110 | 152.5→155.5o-105 u-115 | — | +3000 |
| Hard Rock | -26.5-105 | 153.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 154.5o-108 u+100 | — | +4900 |
| Polymarket | -26.5+108 | 155.5→154.5o-104 u+100 | — | — |
| Novig | -25.5-102 | 151.5→154.5o-108 u+100 | — | — |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Dec 16 | 2025-26 | Toledo 69 – 92 Michigan St |
More games on Thu, Nov 5
- McNeese at North Texas · 5:00 PM ET
- Wake Forest at Vanderbilt · 6:00 PM ET
- Bellarmine at Indiana · 6:00 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Penn State · 6:00 PM ET
- Long Island at Seton Hall · 6:30 PM ET
- Buffalo at Pitt · 7:00 PM ET
- C Connecticut at Syracuse · 7:00 PM ET
- Binghamton at Saint Peter's · 7:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at Incarnate Word · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercyhurst at Notre Dame · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercer at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Vermont at Fairfield · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at Iona · 7:00 PM ET
- UMBC at Marist · 7:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at Navy · 7:00 PM ET
- UAlbany at Manhattan · 7:00 PM ET
- UMass Lowell at Merrimack · 7:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Quinnipiac · 7:00 PM ET
- New Hampshire at Rider · 7:00 PM ET
- Maine at Sacred Heart · 7:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at Cincinnati · 7:00 PM ET
- Cornell at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Hofstra at Princeton · 7:00 PM ET
- Howard at Alcorn St · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia St at Charlotte · 7:00 PM ET
- N'Western St at Mississippi St · 7:30 PM ET
- Stonehill at Fordham · 7:30 PM ET
- Jackson St at Tulane · 7:30 PM ET
- Jacksonville at Florida · 8:00 PM ET
- Gardner-Webb at Texas · 8:00 PM ET
- Le Moyne at Creighton · 8:00 PM ET
- Coastal at Duke · 8:00 PM ET
- West Georgia at Loyola Chicago · 8:00 PM ET
- VMI at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Tulsa · 8:00 PM ET
- East Texas A&M at Rice · 8:00 PM ET
- Jax State at South Alabama · 8:00 PM ET
- South Florida at DePaul · 8:30 PM ET
- Penn at Illinois · 8:30 PM ET
- Bethune at Texas Tech · 9:00 PM ET
- Towson at Utah · 9:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Arizona · 10:30 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.